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Why Teyrn Loghain is the deepest character in Dragon Age


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#4226
Addai

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And Loghain admits he made an mistake. But that's what happens. When you are not sure of Orlesian intents, you secure the borders, because nothing would have stopped them from coming in, with or without permission and that's soemthing no state would abide by unless absolutely forced to.


(Husband)

He does but then he doesn't.   His mistake realization is much more weighted towards the later end of the game.    When you interview him about what he would  if he had beaten you, his response is this.


1) Finish dealing with nobles and bring them in line


2) Go up to the border and secure it. (essentially reinforce the troops already there)


3) Then and only then turn south and begin fighting darkspawn.


And this is really ass backwards.   Besides the civil war beginning to be completely counter productive something Howe notes and cautions him on...     He had already secured the border.    Not enough by his standards I'm sure, but the token force that had stopped the Orlesians at the border.     There are no reports of them crossing over during the whole year this is playing out.    And if you consider that in context that is a powerful body of evidence.  


For probably about 9 months, you had a token force on the border and no Orlain invasion.    All the time, Loghain uses the bulk of his troops to harass the Warden and the nobles.

There is no canon evidence that Ferelden has any kind of defensive implacements to keep enemy armies at bay like Great Wall or Marginot line, other than natural obstacles like rivers and mountains on the border.    If you consider that a token force unaided by nothing except natural barriers kept Orlai at bay, then if you apply an epistemological approach like Occam's razor.   That should be a pretty good clue that they are not the major threat.

Modifié par Addai67, 13 octobre 2010 - 02:57 .


#4227
testing123

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 Well this has been interesting and all but I don't think it is going to get anywhere if the debate has devolved into the difference between fact and opinion.  I actually do sort of share TJPags sentiment that sometimes posters portray predicted intentions or consequences as certainties when reality is far more nebulous.  

I do have one question.  Assuming that Orlais is acting on non-altruistic intentions, which I agree they almost certainly are, how does that equate to imminent harm for Ferelden?  Isn't there such a thing as shared self interest?  Wouldn't stopping the Blight be in everyone's best interest?  The issue I have is not with arguing that Orlais isn't cooperating out of the goodness of their heart, it is arguing that we know with a great deal of certainty what they intend to gain from their military aid.  It could most definitely mean invasion or it could be any other number of benefits for Orlais that don't end in a conquered Ferelden.

#4228
mousestalker

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Loghain, Love Muffin



Posted Image



From here

#4229
KnightofPhoenix

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TJPags wrote...
 What we're debating is whether Orlais was invading Ferelden or not.  That's all.


No, we were not debating this. We were debating on why would Loghain think this.

So what's your point? That Orlais didn't invade and that Loghain was mistaken? We've already said he was, because he can't know everything. And? Does that make his opinion any less sensible? 

As for Celene and Cailan. Again, we can actually explain what Orlais would gain from such a union and why would it do that. So we have reason to believe that Celene was having her self interest in mind. So the opinion that Orlais was planing a "soft invasion" has merit. The belief that Celene and Cailan wanted to marry because of love only and that this wouldn't have had any bad consequences for Ferelden, is an opinion based on no facts at all.
So one opinion has merit and the other doesn't. Neither are facts, but one opinion is worth more than the other.

I'll remind you, we are discussing the merit of Loghain's opinion here.

#4230
KnightofPhoenix

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Addai67 wrote...
There is no canon evidence that Ferelden has any kind of defensive implacements to keep enemy armies at bay like Great Wall or Marginot line, other than natural obstacles like rivers and mountains on the border.    If you consider that a token force unaided by nothing except natural barriers kept Orlai at bay, then if you apply an epistemological approach like Occam's razor.   That should be a pretty good clue that they are not the major threat.


And what gaurantee do you have that if you withdraw your army from the West and focus entirely on the darkspawn, that the Orlesians wouldn't come in?

Maybe the Orlesians were betting on Loghain sending all his forces or the majority south, so they can move in unobstructed. Maybe the Orlesians were waiting for reinforments. Maybe they were waiting for reinforcements and waiting for Loghain to remove the forces at the borders or reduce them and focus on the south.

Of course we know that the Orlesians didn't want any of this. My question is, how could Loghain have known?

Modifié par KnightofPhoenix, 13 octobre 2010 - 03:22 .


#4231
KnightofPhoenix

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jvee wrote...
  Isn't there such a thing as shared self interest? 


Relative gains. Some gain more than others. Powerful nations have more leverage and influence than weaker ones.
Weaker nations relying on the help of stronger nations would weaken their relative position. Add the fact that it was not clearly a Blight. Why should Ferelden risk Orlesian troops in its lands and risk falling under its influence if it wasn't clear that they needed them?

And Celene's marriage confirms or strongly hints at Orlais reasserting its influence, because I see no other reason for her to marry Cailan.

Modifié par KnightofPhoenix, 13 octobre 2010 - 03:22 .


#4232
TJPags

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KnightofPhoenix wrote...

TJPags wrote...
 What we're debating is whether Orlais was invading Ferelden or not.  That's all.


No, we were not debating this. We were debating on why would Loghain think this.

So what's your point? That Orlais didn't invade and that Loghain was mistaken? We've already said he was, because he can't know everything. And? Does that make his opinion any less sensible? 

As for Celene and Cailan. Again, we can actually explain what Orlais would gain from such a union and why would it do that. So we have reason to believe that Celene was having her self interest in mind. So the opinion that Orlais was planing a "soft invasion" has merit. The belief that Celene and Cailan wanted to marry because of love only and that this wouldn't have had any bad consequences for Ferelden, is an opinion based on no facts at all.
So one opinion has merit and the other doesn't. Neither are facts, but one opinion is worth more than the other.

I'll remind you, we are discussing the merit of Loghain's opinion here.


No.  You're debating that.

I got into this in response to a post that indicated Loghain was defending the wrong thing, since Orlais wasn't invading.  Someone said his opinion, that Orlais was invading, was proven true.  I asked for a factual basis for this.

What I got, instead, was a whole lot of "well, he had reason to think they were" which is never what I questioned.  I questioned where it was demonstrated that Orlais was invading.

You started debating why he would think this, and how logical it was.  I never did.

#4233
mousestalker

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Loghain and Morrigan Gender Switch

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From here.

Modifié par mousestalker, 13 octobre 2010 - 03:09 .


#4234
TJPags

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mousestalker wrote...

Loghain and Morrigan Gender Switch

From here.


Now THAT'S disturbing.

#4235
KnightofPhoenix

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TJPags wrote...
I got into this in response to a post that indicated Loghain was defending the wrong thing, since Orlais wasn't invading.  Someone said his opinion, that Orlais was invading, was proven true.  I asked for a factual basis for this.


I think it was Celene and Cailan's plans that was mentionned as evidence that Orlais was planing to exert its influence.

It may not be facts, but it's an opinion with very strong merit that Celene's plan was made with Orlesian self interest in mind and that Ferelden, like all weaker states, would not have come out with the best deal for its own self interest and relative position.

But if you want facts on this specific issue, you won't find any. And if it was all based on facts alone, you would not have seen Loghain discussed in such a scale.

Modifié par KnightofPhoenix, 13 octobre 2010 - 03:17 .


#4236
Monica21

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TJ, if you would humor me, I'm curious to know why you think Celene wanted to marry Cailan and also what you think the Orlesian troops would have done if they had entered Ferelden and helped defeat the Blight.

My apologies if you've already answered this.

#4237
Addai

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And what gaurantee do you have that if you withdraw your army from the
West and focus entirely on the darkspawn, that the Orlesians wouldn't
come in?

Maybe the Orlesians were betting on Loghain sending all
his forces or the majority south, so they can move in unobstructed.
Maybe the Orlesians were waiting for reinforments. Maybe they were
waiting for reinforcements and waiting for Loghain to remove the forces
at the borders or reduce them and focus on the south.

Of course we know that the Orlesians didn't want any of this. My question is, how could have Loghain known?



(husband)

Lol  its just basic epistemology that comes with the clicking clock as days turns into weeks and weeks turn into months, and those months begin to get close to a year (measures of time vary in the game but one year seems to be figure often quoted for how long it takes DAO to unfold).

Your a university student from what I've read, I'll assume you have some psychology or something like it.    There's a lot of theories and metaphors for human behavior.   One of them from cognitive psych is that we are all scientists.   We all go around life trying to understand things.    And we formulate hypothesis and test them, and revise them etc.


Now in all that time, when faced with the evidence (No reports of forced entry into Ferelden) that one might have started to modify their views a bit?    Any normal person would have.


At the start in Loghain's favor is the past.     Any social scientist would say the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior.   So yes, paranoia from the war with Orlai would make sense.     But it still doesn't warrant closing himself off to the new data.    Which is namely that Orlains seem to be behaving themselves, but the Darkspawn threat continues to grow and take lives.


I would not argue to get rid of all the troops on the border.   But you are forgetting what Loghain is attempting to do, he is attempting to reinforce troops (a troop level that has already been shown to be suffienct) all the while letting places like Lothering, and Bann Wulf's West Hills fall, and letting the Darkspawn maraud the countryside at will.

Modifié par Addai67, 13 octobre 2010 - 03:35 .


#4238
Persephone

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TJPags wrote...

Persephone wrote...

TJPags wrote...

Costin_Razvan wrote...

Oh? So I am supposed to believe that Cailan had actually invited four Legions into Orlais despite the fact Loghain protests strongly to it and there is uncertainty in what Cailan states with his "after all"?

Don't buy it. Believe what you will, but I still consider what you think as idiotic.



 That it is OPINION that Celene had some kind of nefarious plan to do bad things to Ferelden.


Oh really?  http://social.biowar...3551/blog/9468/


You want to point me to the prt of that where Gaider says "Celene had a plot to take over Ferelden, have Chevaliers rape every woman, steal every coin and last piece of mud, and kill all the dogs"?

because, you know, HE DIDN'T SAY THAT.

Reading comprehension isn't your strong point, is it?


And reading between the lines isn't yours, I suppose. Must Gaider hit us with bricks or is subtlety overrated? Politics are usually subtle. And such extremes aren't necessary.

Point to the part here:

Question: Was Cailan really planning on leaving Anora for the Empress of Orlais, or was Loghain exaggerating?
DG: You know actually its funny, that was a plot that was originally in Origins, and we couldn't include it. The Empress of Orlais was supposed to have been visiting Denerim during the time of the Blight. We had a whole plot prepared for it, but that's the way development goes--things get cut all the time. So what you saw in Return to Ostagar was sort of a a callback to what was happening there. The plan actually originally was, yes, that Cailan was planning to divorce Anora originally and Loghain discovered what was going on, (in an ominous/ironic/sarcastic kind of tone) but of course that's not why he did what he did--right?--Loghain being the completely reasonable man that he is. (13:25)

Where Gaider says ANYTHING about Celene having some kind of plot for Ferelden please.

However, I agree that my response to Costin was uncalled for, and I apologize for that.


Add 2+2. Not everything needs to be spelled out to the letter.

#4239
Zjarcal

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mousestalker wrote...

Loghain and Morrigan Gender Switch

*snip!!!*

From here.


What the... :blink:

#4240
Persephone

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mousestalker wrote...

Coordinating Strategy

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Ah, Slash. Something the DAO fandom needs more of. :wub::innocent:

#4241
KnightofPhoenix

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Addai67 wrote...
I would not argue to get rid of all the troops on the border.   But you are forgetting what Loghain is attempting to do, he is attempting to reinforce troops (a troop level that has already been shown to be suffienct) all the while letting places like Lothering, and Bann Wulf's West Hills fall, and letting the Darkspawn maraud the countryside.


Because like I said, does he know that the Orlesians weren't waiting for reinforcements? Does he know for sure that if he didn't move a large part of the army west, that the Orlesians wouldn't come in? Does he know that Orlais isn't waiting for him to be focused on the south for them to move in? If I was Orlais and I was planing to invade Ferelden, I would invade at the very last possible moment, when Ferelden is so exhausted fighting the blight and just walk in. So is it completely stupid to attempt to reinforce the borders further?

I am not arguing that his sense of priority was completely rational. Yes, the darkspawn threat was very real and yes, it was more threatening than the Orlesians.  This, I have not argued against. And I have argued that in his position, I would have at least contemplated some Orlesian reinforcements. 

What I am saying however is that Loghain's line of thinking was not without reason. The fact that a small army was able to stop the Orlesians at the borders is not evidence. If anything, the Orlesians NOT turning around is suspicious, if they were not given permission to go in. So why did they keep camp at the borders? It is a very valid opinion to believe that they were waiting for the good moment to strike. 

Modifié par KnightofPhoenix, 13 octobre 2010 - 03:42 .


#4242
testing123

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KnightofPhoenix wrote...
So why did they keep camp at the borders? 


Might have something to do with the unresponsive Ferelden army warily eyeing them from across the border. =P

Ever heard of a self fulfilling prophecy?  

#4243
KnightofPhoenix

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jvee wrote...

KnightofPhoenix wrote...
So why did they keep camp at the borders? 


Might have something to do with the unresponsive Ferelden army warily eyeing them from across the border. =P

Ever heard of a self fulfilling prophecy? 


And I certainly would not have faulted Orlais for thinking that Loghain might be trying to invade. Except it's more likely that they realise that Loghain, too busy with a civil war and the darkspawn, could not have possibly planned to invade.

Orlais has little to fear from a small country like Ferelden, especially with all the problems it's facing. Ferelden has much more reason to fear the continental superpower that is Orlais.

#4244
CalJones

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Thanks Mousestalker - everyone needs a bit of slash first thing in the morning.

#4245
phaonica

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Playing catch up.

Yes, actually, we WERE talking about the fact that Loghain sent troops to guard the border from what he believed was an Orlesian invasion, but which was, in actually, Orlesian troops and wardens responding to a request for aid from the King of Ferelden.  Smart on Caillan's part or not, that's what happened.

How do I say this. You make it sound like the fact that they were invited automatically means that it couldn't be called an invasion. Like... if I let a stranger into my house, it's not technically trespassing. And that's fair enough. But just because I invited them in, and they aren't technically trespassing, that doesn't mean they aren't going to try to steal anything, or use the opportunity to case the place.

Maybe if it was worded differently, such as to say... Cailan invited in the Orlesian armies, but he didn't technically invite them to take over. Loghain thinks that they will use the invitation as an opportunity to take over.

Would I say Loghain was definitively right about Orlais wanting to take over? No.

Do I think there is enough support for Loghain's speculation against Orlais to justify his actions to defend against them? Yes.

If I invite you into my house, you're not trespassing.  If The President of the United States invites the Mexican army into Texas, it's not an invasion.

I didn't read ahead so I didn't see that you'd said this. :P

Hypothetically, given the scenario you just described, if the Mexican Army, after being invited into Texas *did* attack, if you didn't call it an invasion, what would you call it?

 

Modifié par phaonica, 13 octobre 2010 - 05:50 .


#4246
Costin_Razvan

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A small preview of my River Dane fanfiction.

That is why Loghain had chosen this exact spot for battle, just across one of the largest crossings for the River Dane. He knew the Olresian Legions had no choice but to either ford the river here or face marching through the Imperial Highway, which would have left them exposed to flank attacks and mitigated the power of their cavalry or take one of the smaller crossings along the river. In this place he gave the Orlesian Commander the false belief that he had betters chances and that Loghain was just an inept leader. 

The Orlesian dogs would soon learn well enough that a Mac Tir was never inept.

Modifié par Costin_Razvan, 13 octobre 2010 - 03:08 .


#4247
mousestalker

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CalJones wrote...

Thanks Mousestalker - everyone needs a bit of slash first thing in the morning.


Always glad to spread joy!

#4248
KnightofPhoenix

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Very nice Costin!

#4249
Addai

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KnightofPhoenix wrote...

Addai67 wrote...
I would not argue to get rid of all the troops on the border.   But you are forgetting what Loghain is attempting to do, he is attempting to reinforce troops (a troop level that has already been shown to be suffienct) all the while letting places like Lothering, and Bann Wulf's West Hills fall, and letting the Darkspawn maraud the countryside.


Because like I said, does he know that the Orlesians weren't waiting for reinforcements? Does he know for sure that if he didn't move a large part of the army west, that the Orlesians wouldn't come in? Does he know that Orlais isn't waiting for him to be focused on the south for them to move in? If I was Orlais and I was planing to invade Ferelden, I would invade at the very last possible moment, when Ferelden is so exhausted fighting the blight and just walk in. So is it completely stupid to attempt to reinforce the borders further?

I am not arguing that his sense of priority was completely rational. Yes, the darkspawn threat was very real and yes, it was more threatening than the Orlesians.  This, I have not argued against. And I have argued that in his position, I would have at least contemplated some Orlesian reinforcements. 

What I am saying however is that Loghain's line of thinking was not without reason. The fact that a small army was able to stop the Orlesians at the borders is not evidence. If anything, the Orlesians NOT turning around is suspicious, if they were not given permission to go in. So why did they keep camp at the borders? It is a very valid opinion to believe that they were waiting for the good moment to strike. 


(husband)


Yes Loghain in some ways is actually somewhat convential by military history standards.   That is to say there is an adage that generals tend to "fight the war of the previous generation rather than the one that is before them".

So in World War II you have generals trying to use a trench warfare mentality, in Vietnam with asymetrical warfare you ones that try to do an attrition warfare like WWII and so on.

To that degree Loghain isn't alone, except real life tends to force you to adjust your paradigm and methods and he seems slower than most to adjust.    This would however tend to downgrade his "best general ever" rating.   A truely great general can see new possiblities, adjust and exploit them, like Sun Tzu, Rommel, Patton, Napolean, Alexander the Great etc.

Modifié par Addai67, 13 octobre 2010 - 11:07 .


#4250
KnightofPhoenix

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Addai67 wrote...
(husband)
Yes Loghain in some ways is actually somewhat convential by military history standards.   That is to say there is an adage that generals tend to "fight the war of the previous generation rather than the one that is before them".

So in World War II you have generals trying to use a trench warfare mentality, in Vietnam with asymetrical warfare you ones that try to do an attrition warfare like WWII and so on.

To that degree Loghain isn't alone, except real life tends to force you to adjust your paradigm and methods and he seems slower than most to adjust.    This would however tend to downgrade his "best general ever" rating.   A truely great general can see new possiblities, adjust and exploit them, like Sun Tzu, Rommel, Patton, Napolean, Alexander the Great etc.


You are talking about outdated tactics and strategies that could no longer fit in more modern periods. You're right of course, but I don't see how this has anything to do with Loghain. We were not discussing his tactics. We were discussing the murky political situation where Ferelden was faced with 2 fronts and a possible third that, in Loghain's mind, was potentially the most dangerous. And how he, while factually wrong, had good or at least valid reasons to think so.

So I really don't see "new possibilities to adjust to and exploit" in this situation (he did try to get all mages to fight and was very nearly succesful, so that's a plus). We don't really know what tactics he employed (we do know he was crushing the Bannorn in several battles, including one where he was ambushed). And I don't see how his general strategy, which might not have been perfect, could have been improved much considering everything. His major failure, imo, was political, in the sense of uniting the bannorn against him.  His other major mistake is thinking that the Orlesians were the immediate threat.

However, that too is not a belief without some basis. We know from Riordan that the majority of the horde was spotted heading to the West and not the North, until after the Landsmeet (and from what I see, their advance is very slow. It's only after the Landsmeet that the Blight surges to Denerim). Much of the southern lands / Bannorn were fighting against Loghain (and what were they thinking?), so he could not have helped them even if he wanted to. And based on our experience in the deep roads, the majority of the horde was still underground with the archdemon, until it revealed itself. Loghain underestimates the Blight, yes, due to ignorance and lack of information. On the otherhand, he knows that there are 4 legions of chevaliers on the borders, possibly waiting for even more. 4 legions is quite a lot considering how Orlais sent 2 at the River Dane in order to reassert Orlesian rule in all of Ferelden.     

So all in all, while he was mistaken, it's a line of thinking with some basis on one hand and caused by a lack of information on the other (that could not have been helped unless he sent scouts to the deep roads, which he couldn't due to Orzammar's instability). It might be easy to judge him, but I think he did the best he could in the context he was in, considering his bad luck (Uldred failing, Endrin dying) and his lack of political prudence. 

But I don't think anyone was saying Loghain was the best general ever. However considering how in TST, Loghain mastered both conventional and guerrilla warfare (night elves), which is something seldom achieved, I would find it hard to argue that he isn't a good general. Far from being perfect of course. But I don't think its his military prowess that should be put in question as much. It's rather his political failure that I find more blatant.  

Modifié par KnightofPhoenix, 13 octobre 2010 - 11:43 .