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[Costin_Razvan]

KoP, sometimes imperial powers simply tire of being imperial. Or they decide that less heavy-handed methods are better all around

Name one such imperial power. I would very much like to hear about it.

Yeah well, that quote isn't any more true or applicable just because you keep repeating it.

Yeah well, you will excuse if I don't really want to argue with people who want an answer to every single question and think that any nation on this planet does anything out of the kindness of their heart.

Modifié par Costin_Razvan, 20 octobre 2010 - 04:37 .

[KnightofPhoenix]

Addai67 wrote...

KoP, sometimes imperial powers simply tire of being imperial. Or they decide that less heavy-handed methods are better all around. The fact that Celene wanted an alliance with Ferelden that could avert future wars doesn't mean she's teh ebul. She is obviously looking out for her own, but in many ways it would also benefit Ferelden.

I never suggested Celene was "evil". I think she is brilliant and her plan is brilliant.
It's either set in defensive realist line of thinking (defensive postionality as well), in which it would prevent Orlais of being contained and prevents an alliance between Ferleden and Nevarra.
Or offensive realist thinking, in expanding Orlesian influence to the Waking sea (which is why I think they built Amaranthine in the first place). 
Or most likely both.

It's brilliant and the reason I strongly believe Celene was planing this is because I would have done exactly the same were I in her position. 

Ferelden might of course benefit in absolute. But as we Realists agrue, relative gains is more important. When someone is  benefitting more than you, in time, they might use that to absorb you and you seem to agree with that.

[Giggles_Manically]

I dont think trusting Celene is a good idea.



She is the head of an empire, and empires have two past times road building and conquest. To think that she was just trying to be nice and help Ferelden out... no thats just being silly.



A marriage would become a merger and Orlais would then have Fereldan through the offspring of such a marriage.

[Addai]

Costin_Razvan wrote...

KoP, sometimes imperial powers simply tire of being imperial. Or they decide that less heavy-handed methods are better all around

Name one such imperial power.

Almost all of the western European colonial nations, including modern Germany who was the last bloody hurrah of western colonial ambitions.

Yeah well, you will excuse if I don't really want to argue with people who want an answer to every single question and think that any nation on this planet does anything out of the kindness of their heart.

?? Ok, whatever.  I think we could be done here.

[KnightofPhoenix]

Costin_Razvan wrote...

KoP, sometimes imperial powers simply tire of being imperial. Or they decide that less heavy-handed methods are better all around

Name one such imperial power. I would very much like to hear about it.

I can think of one or two actually. The Austrian Empire decided to appease Hungarian national sentiments and turned it to the Austro-Hungarian empire.
Umar II of the Umayyad Caliphate decided he not only wanted to stop expansions, but that he wnated to give up territory (and he wasn't that smart, even if people love him for his piety and charity).

But these are due to external and iinternal pressures and I don't think it is about a desire to stop being imperial. I think states acquire power not because they necessarily wnt it, but because they want to prevent others from getting it. It's a security dilemna in many ways. 

[Addai]

Giggles_Manically wrote...

I dont think trusting Celene is a good idea.

She is the head of an empire, and empires have two past times road building and conquest. To think that she was just trying to be nice and help Ferelden out... no thats just being silly.

A marriage would become a merger and Orlais would then have Fereldan through the offspring of such a marriage.

Don't believe I ever said Celene's plans did not contain self interest, in fact I said the opposite.  However my point is that it need not be a zero sum game, nor do we know that Orlais would have tried to occupy Ferelden again even if given the chance.  By now I think they see that it is more trouble than it was worth to try to hold a hostile Ferelden.

And I think I'm bowing out now.  Getting tired of the discussion.

[KnightofPhoenix]

Addai67 wrote...

Almost all of the western European colonial nations, including modern Germany who was the last bloody hurrah of western colonial ambitions.

That was not coming out of a desire to stop being imperial. France fought the Algerians and Indochinese in bloody wars (one million Algerians died for their independence) and they had to be defeated to leave. The British were more  pragmatic, but it was stil pressures, especially from the USA, that made them retreat from colonialism (in fact Churchill and Roosevelt headbutted a lot over this). The Suez 1956 war is the example par excellence of the USA telling (threatening actually) Britain that it was not longer a colonial emprie that could do what it wish.

And yes, it's not a zero sum game. It's a relative sum game. Everyone would rather benefit more than the other or benefit equally. Given the distribution of power, that cannot be the case between Orlais and Ferelden, Orlais will benefit more. Military occupation is not the only way to exert influence and control.

Modifié par KnightofPhoenix, 20 octobre 2010 - 05:05 .

[Costin_Razvan]

Don't believe I ever said Celene's plans did not contain self interest, in fact I said the opposite. However my point is that it need not be a zero sum game, nor do we know that Orlais would have tried to occupy Ferelden again even if given the chance. By now I think they see that it is more trouble than it was worth to try to hold a hostile Ferelden.

And I think I'm bowing out now. Getting tired of the discussion.

Then give an explanation for having four entire legions of Chevaliers at Fereldan's borders to combat a threat that no noble, not even Cailan himself who WANTS it to be a Blight, believes is true.

But let's just assume that Celene does believe it is a Blight ( despite the fact no noble really does until much later in game ), and let's just assume that Orlais has around 20 legions of Chevaliers ( and that's exaggerating in my opinion, but let's run with it for argument's sake ). No leader with a brain would ever send an entire fifth of his or her military strength to aid a country without having something strong to gain from it, and it would much more logical from Celene to wait for the Archdemon to show it's face then worry about killing it.

Even, say the USA, always had something to gain when they "helped" others.

Modifié par Costin_Razvan, 20 octobre 2010 - 04:54 .

[Sarah1281]

Monica21 wrote...

And it's actually stated somewhere that the Wardens were the ones who told people there was never going to be another Blight. Probably to alleviate fears because the fourth Blight was so devastating. So you have a group of Wardens 400 years ago who said there was never going to be another, and a small, recently arrived, group of Ferelden Wardens who see some darkspawn and claim it's a Blight. There are lots of reasons to be skeptical of the Wardens.

They did? WTF? Did they not CARE what would happen when the other three Archdemon showed up?

[Sarah1281]

This doesn't make sense. In order to establish their relevance, they would want people to think a Blight is coming, not the reverse. I'm not saying it didn't happen somewhere along the line, I would just need to see the chapter and verse where that was stated.

They could have changed their position in the last four hundred years. Immediately following the Blight, it's possible that they joined in with the kings trying to assure everyone that it was over, the darkspawn weren't coming back, ect. and then by the time we reach the Dragon Age people firmly believe those lies that the kings, at least, told and yet the Wardens are arguing that the Blight is coming.

[phaonica]

I'm not sure if the Wardens helped perpetuate the idea that all blights were over. Or maybe they did at first, but they never themselves believed they were over. I found this on DAWiki:

"So many darkspawn are slaughtered in the fourth Blight that it is considered certain that they will never return. This belief is compounded by rulers choosing to tell the people that the Blight was forever defeated as a way to restore order. Despite the fact that the surface world would not see another Blight for 400 years it is continuously felt underground by the dwarves of Orzammar, a fact that is largely ignored by most except the Grey Wardens."

http://dragonage.wikia.com/wiki/Blight

Modifié par phaonica, 20 octobre 2010 - 05:13 .

[KnightofPhoenix]

I don't think the Wardens actively supported the idea (in peace, vigilance). I think they were told to shut up by the rulers who pay their stipends. So the Wardens didn't' actively debunk those ideas either.

[maxernst]

Costin_Razvan wrote...

Don't believe I ever said Celene's plans did not contain self interest, in fact I said the opposite. However my point is that it need not be a zero sum game, nor do we know that Orlais would have tried to occupy Ferelden again even if given the chance. By now I think they see that it is more trouble than it was worth to try to hold a hostile Ferelden.

And I think I'm bowing out now. Getting tired of the discussion.

Then give an explanation for having four entire legions of Chevaliers at Fereldan's borders to combat a threat that no noble, not even Cailan himself who WANTS it to be a Blight, believes is true.

But let's just assume that Celene does believe it is a Blight ( despite the fact no noble really does until much later in game ), .

What is your evidence that no noble believes there's a Blight? It's not like we've had an opportunity to poll every noble in the country.  Plus, unlike Ferelden, the Orlesians have a strong Warden tradition, and it might very well be that if the Wardens advised Celene that they believed it to be a blight, she might well believe them.  Historically, Celene knows that no single nation has ever successfully fought off a blight by itself, so she has to be prepared to commit the entire strength of Orlais knowing that even that might not be enough to succeed.  She has no way of knowing how fast or in what direction the Darkspawn will move.  They could be on Orlais borders in a month.
Besides, we have absolutely no idea how big an Orlesian legion actually is, so we have no way of guessing how much of Orlais strength that represents.

[maxernst]

Sarah1281 wrote...

Monica21 wrote...
And it's actually stated somewhere that the Wardens were the ones who told people there was never going to be another Blight. Probably to alleviate fears because the fourth Blight was so devastating. So you have a group of Wardens 400 years ago who said there was never going to be another, and a small, recently arrived, group of Ferelden Wardens who see some darkspawn and claim it's a Blight. There are lots of reasons to be skeptical of the Wardens.

They did? WTF? Did they not CARE what would happen when the other three Archdemon showed up?

I have to find out where this is stated.  I find that hard to believe because if there's never going to be another Blight, there's no reason for the Wardens to continue to exist, much less to have extraordinary powers like the Right of Conscription.

[maxernst]

KnightofPhoenix wrote...

Costin_Razvan wrote...

KoP, sometimes imperial powers simply tire of being imperial. Or they decide that less heavy-handed methods are better all around

Name one such imperial power. I would very much like to hear about it.

I can think of one or two actually. The Austrian Empire decided to appease Hungarian national sentiments and turned it to the Austro-Hungarian empire.
Umar II of the Umayyad Caliphate decided he not only wanted to stop expansions, but that he wnated to give up territory (and he wasn't that smart, even if people love him for his piety and charity).

But these are due to external and iinternal pressures and I don't think it is about a desire to stop being imperial. I think states acquire power not because they necessarily wnt it, but because they want to prevent others from getting it. It's a security dilemna in many ways. 

I don't think we have to assume that Orlais has "stopped being Imperial" to think that Celene may have decided, having read what happened before, that trying to control to Ferelden simply wasn't worth it.  Imperial powers have written off rebellious posessions many, many times.  Expansion in other directions might very well be more profitable and less trouble.

That said, marrying Celene sounds like a poor bargain for Ferelden in the long run, though it might be a very good one from a selfish point of view for Cailan--bigger army to fight glorious battles!  If Cailan had come off as being terrified that Ferelden was going to be overrun by a blight, then I could certainly see the marriage, but as it seems, no.  Getting rid of Anora to try and secure an heir and marrying an Orlesian noble, perhaps a cousin to Celene  to have greater ties with a powerful, wealthy neighbor, sure.  But historically, these kinds of unions haven't generally paid off for the smaller partner. 

[KnightofPhoenix]

maxernst wrote...
I don't think we have to assume that Orlais has "stopped being Imperial" to think that Celene may have decided, having read what happened before, that trying to control to Ferelden simply wasn't worth it.  Imperial powers have written off rebellious posessions many, many times.  Expansion in other directions might very well be more profitable and less trouble.

Try to directly and militarily control Ferelden is not worth it and yes I think Celene believed that. But there are other ways to extend influence.

Having Ferelden in Orlais' sphere of influence is definetely worth it. And I think Orlais reached the limit of its expansionism, at least at the moment. Nevarra rivals it in power. I don't think Nevarra would allow Orlais to ivnade the Free Marches. So the only avenue Orlais can use is Ferelden and they can't really be bogged down there like they did the first time. But in terms of expanding Orlesian influence and securing its interests while minimizing the costs, Ferelden is the way to go.

[phaonica]

phaonica wrote...
http://dragonage.wikia.com/wiki/Blight

The wiki doesn't state it's references very well. I don't know whether what I posted earlier is stated anywhere in the game lore or if it's just whoever-edited-the-wiki's conclusion.

[Costin_Razvan]

What is your evidence that no noble believes there's a Blight? It's not like we've had an opportunity to poll every noble in the country. Plus, unlike Ferelden, the Orlesians have a strong Warden tradition, and it might very well be that if the Wardens advised Celene that they believed it to be a blight, she might well believe them. Historically, Celene knows that no single nation has ever successfully fought off a blight by itself, so she has to be prepared to commit the entire strength of Orlais knowing that even that might not be enough to succeed. She has no way of knowing how fast or in what direction the Darkspawn will move. They could be on Orlais borders in a month.
Besides, we have absolutely no idea how big an Orlesian legion actually is, so we have no way of guessing how much of Orlais strength that represents.

You want evidence? Cailan, Howe, Loghain don't believe there is a Blight. Bryce is only going south because the King ordered him to, but there is nothing to suggest he believed it was one.

Teagan and Eamon, who both start the Civil War and try to unite the Bannorn against Loghain also do not believe, or else they wouldn't be so stupid to start a Civil War right there and then. Teagan's reaction at the end says it all. He is very surprised the Archdemon has shown itself.

What evidence do you have to suggest that any nobles believe a Blight is coming before the Landsmeet? I see most of the nobles who you meet before then as not believing it, including Cailan who DOES want to believe it is true.

Regardless of Warden tradition in Orlais, you cannot argue that Celene would have more reason to believe it was a Blight more then Cailan.

As for the Orlesian military strength. Even if each individual Legion had only 1.000 men, it would still mean that Orlais would have 20.000 full time soldiers....which for Medieval Time is a rather large standing army. If Celene really does know much about Blights, then she would know that each Blight ended when the Archdemon was slain and not before. Thus it would be FAR more logical for her to wait for the Archdemon to show itself and not aid Fereldan until then, yet the Orlesian Legions had already been gathered BEFORE Ostagar.

Do not forget that Orlais is still at war with Nevarra.

Modifié par Costin_Razvan, 20 octobre 2010 - 06:12 .

[Wulfram]

Being in Orlais' sphere of influence seems like the most sensible position for Ferelden to be in, so long as it keeps internal autonomy.

[phaonica]

phaonica wrote...

phaonica wrote...
http://dragonage.wikia.com/wiki/Blight

The wiki doesn't state it's references very well. I don't know whether what I posted earlier is stated anywhere in the game lore or if it's just whoever-edited-the-wiki's conclusion.

Quoting myself again. Okay, I *think* that what I quoted earlier comes from the Collector's Edition Prima Guide, but I don't own that, so I can't double check it. Maybe someone who does own it would be so kind as to verify

[KnightofPhoenix]

Wulfram wrote...

Being in Orlais' sphere of influence seems like the most sensible position for Ferelden to be in, so long as it keeps internal autonomy.

And here is where I strongly disagree. First of all, sooner or later, Ferelden would lose that autonomy little by little. That's usually what happens to weaker nations under the influence of stronger ones.

Second, I think Ferelden has more options than that. Ferelden can ally with Nevarra to balance out Orlais. Nevarra being far from Ferelden and it seemingly not having an economic presence there, makes it less of a threat to Ferelden's sovereignity. Ferelden can have alternative economic partners if it focus on naval commerce as well. 

Ferelden doesn't need to be in Orlais' sphere of influence. That doesn't mean that Ferelden has to cut ties with Orlais, that's not what I am saying. But I see no pressing reason why Ferelden has to compromise on its sovereignity and autonomy to anyone. The country has potential and that potential can only be nurtured with complete independence.

[Wulfram]

I can't see Ferelden managing to maintain a neutral position towards Orlais. It will be forced to pick sides eventually, and if it sides against Orlais it's not going to have much support when the chevaliers cross the frostbacks.



Though that's assuming nothing crazy happens like the Qunari appearing in Kirkwall happens.

[KnightofPhoenix]

Orlais would be risking a two front war if Nevarra is Ferelden's ally, that's the whole point of the alliance. So Orlais really can't afford to do that.

Ferelden doesn't have to be neutral. It can play both sides against each other and balance them out (and it can do that until it becomes stronger and can take a more hardline position). Flirt with both, though more with Nevarra, since it presents less of a threat. Orlais doesn't seem to want a direct invasion, it would be too costly especially if Ferelden is united and rebuilding.

[Monica21]

Addai67 wrote...

Monica21 wrote...

Do you mean in Origins or TC? Because they were trying to establish that a Blight was coming in Origins. They just did a poor job of it.

I'm referring to where you said Wardens once tried to convince people there were no Blights coming.  Unless I'm misquoting you or misunderstood.

Yes, that was after the fourth Blight, and they told people that to restore order and calm people. And they knew that that their generation of Wardens wouldn't have to deal with the next Blight.

[Addai]

KnightofPhoenix wrote...

Orlais would be risking a two front war if Nevarra is Ferelden's ally, that's the whole point of the alliance. So Orlais really can't afford to do that.
Ferelden doesn't have to be neutral. It can play both sides against each other and balance them out (and it can do that until it becomes stronger and can take a more hardline position). Flirt with both, though more with Nevarra, since it presents less of a threat. Orlais doesn't seem to want a direct invasion, it would be too costly especially if Ferelden is united and rebuilding.

Hence why in my canon game, I have it worked out in my RP conception that Alistair ends up marrying a Nevarran princess.  Someday I might write about it, though we know very little of Nevarra unfortunately.