It's hard to say. I must admit, I never was interested in Libya before, I always though it was boring (turns out I was wrong). So I can't give a too informed opinion. What I do know is that the rebels are faring somewhat well. Gaddafi loyalists failed to capture Brega as of yet. That said, Gaddafi still has some tricks up his sleeve. Apparently, many Touareg berbers joined his forces as mercenaries (an age old tactic, used since centuries). So right now, it's hard to say who will come on top, but I think there is still a lot of fight left in Gaddafi.
But the more interesting thing is European and American reactions. For obvious reasons that no longer fool anyone (oil). I am not so sure about the timing, but apparently it was Europeans who started talking about a military intervention first, then the USA followed suit. Backroom competition between the two?
So we'll see I guess. As it stands, Gaddafi could fall even without NATO intervention (at least direct intervention). The question is, what will happen after? NATO countries are going to make sure they have a friendly regime.
Modifié par KnightofPhoenix, 04 mars 2011 - 04:30 .