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[Costin_Razvan]

Would he grudgingly accept this or would he stage a rebellion that he couldn't win against the rest of Ferelden and Orlais?

Couldn't Win? Sarah, you severely underestimate how MUCH Fereldans hate Orlais.

[Monica21]

Costin_Razvan wrote...

Would he grudgingly accept this or would he stage a rebellion that he couldn't win against the rest of Ferelden and Orlais?

Couldn't Win? Sarah, you severely underestimate how MUCH Fereldans hate Orlais.

Ferelden nobles were bought once. They killed their Queen. They could be bought again.

[Dean_the_Young]

Monica21 wrote...

Dean_the_Young wrote...

Remind me again why there's any reason that the Landsmeet could simply not recognize any heir of Cailan's with the Empress of Orlais, or even replace Cailan himself?

They might, but by the time it gets to the Landsmeet I'd wager that Celene is smart enough to work out back room deals to make sure the vote goes in her favor.

'Her' favor? She's going to get Teyrn Loghain, Teyrn Cousland, Arl Eamon, the Bannoran, and all the rest of the influential power-players to make her Queen-Regent, a position not even Anora or the Hero of Ferelden can get?

[Dean_the_Young]

Monica21 wrote...

Costin_Razvan wrote...

Would he grudgingly accept this or would he stage a rebellion that he couldn't win against the rest of Ferelden and Orlais?

Couldn't Win? Sarah, you severely underestimate how MUCH Fereldans hate Orlais.

Ferelden nobles were bought once. They killed their Queen. They could be bought again.

A few betrayed. Hardly the host and majority of them. And those were eventually killed.

[Costin_Razvan]

Ferelden nobles were bought once. They killed their Queen. They could be bought again.

Three Fereldan nobles were bought, THREE.



Let's just assume that Celene's plans works as it should. Do you really believe that Bryce, Howe, Teagan, Sighard would just allow it and not stand besides Loghain?



Bryce is first and foremost, a nationalist. Howe HATES Orlais ( I think that;s made clear as day in game ). Teagan is an honorable man who would not stand for what his sister worked for to go to dust. Sighard ( the only one of the entire Landsmeet who supports you no matter what ) seems to have a the same high morals as Teagan.



Alfansa MIGHT fight for Loghain, she seems to respect both Loghain and Bryce well enough, though I am not sure of the Bann of Dragon's Peak.



Ceorlic....well, Loghain's faithful dog.

[Aeowyn]

Monica21 wrote...

Costin_Razvan wrote...

Would he grudgingly accept this or would he stage a rebellion that he couldn't win against the rest of Ferelden and Orlais?

Couldn't Win? Sarah, you severely underestimate how MUCH Fereldans hate Orlais.

Ferelden nobles were bought once. They killed their Queen. They could be bought again.

Not everyone were bought. And I doubt another war with the Orlesians would have the same outcome as the one before the occupation.

Bryland supports you no matter what. Sighard stands with Loghain unless you rescue his son or bring up the whole slavery issue.

Modifié par Aeowyn, 06 septembre 2010 - 07:52 .

[flexxdk]

Dean_the_Young wrote...

Monica21 wrote...

Costin_Razvan wrote...

Would he grudgingly accept this or would he stage a rebellion that he couldn't win against the rest of Ferelden and Orlais?

Couldn't Win? Sarah, you severely underestimate how MUCH Fereldans hate Orlais.

Ferelden nobles were bought once. They killed their Queen. They could be bought again.

A few betrayed. Hardly the host and majority of them. And those were eventually killed.

But who says that they can't be bought again? One can assume that Celene would try to bribe them.

[CalJones]

Bear in mind the queen was killed towards the end of an 80 year occupation. The Fereldans were already downtrodden and abused by their Orlesian masters - some had much to gain by betraying their fellow countrymen as it would mean privileges for them.

Around the Origins era, they are a free people again with more to lose, and the memory of the occupation fresh in their minds (the middle-aged and older ones, anyway). There would be a lot more resistance.

[Monica21]

Dean_the_Young wrote...

Monica21 wrote...

Dean_the_Young wrote...

Remind me again why there's any reason that the Landsmeet could simply not recognize any heir of Cailan's with the Empress of Orlais, or even replace Cailan himself?

They might, but by the time it gets to the Landsmeet I'd wager that Celene is smart enough to work out back room deals to make sure the vote goes in her favor.

'Her' favor? She's going to get Teyrn Loghain, Teyrn Cousland, Arl Eamon, the Bannoran, and all the rest of the influential power-players to make her Queen-Regent, a position not even Anora or the Hero of Ferelden can get?

Yes, "her" favor, because this deal serves her and Orlais more than anyone. And I did say earlier that she doesn't need Teagan, Loghain, and Bryce. Back room deals are back room deals for a reason. Promise a bann that he can have an arling, or an Arl that he can have a terynir and Ferelden's most powerful nobles are outvoted. This deal wouldn't be on the table if Celene didn't think she could make it work.

[Costin_Razvan]

Oh, no one doubts for a second that Celene could win the Landsmeet vote.



But one is a fool to assume Fereldan's nobles wouldn't raise an army to fight the Crown.

[Sarah1281]

Costin_Razvan wrote...

Would he grudgingly accept this or would he stage a rebellion that he couldn't win against the rest of Ferelden and Orlais?

Couldn't Win? Sarah, you severely underestimate how MUCH Fereldans hate Orlais.

Aside from not actually answering the question, the AU scenario I'm working from is Cailan survived Ostagar which wasn't an epic disaster but it wasn't a victory either. The Orlesians came in before Loghain could put his plan to remove Cailan from power into effect (they were right at the border after all) and managed to end the Blight with much less Ferelden casualties than expected so there is some goodwill there. Regardless of how it's done, the Landsmeet agrees to this. Would Loghain also go along with it or would he have Gwaren rebel? I don't feel that Gwaren could beat the combined might of the rest of Ferelden and Orlais. Also, Bryce is dead as Howe massacred the Couslands still and Eamon wasn't important enough to get the Ashes for under the circumstances so he's still in a coma.

Edit: Sure, some others might join in but against the full might of the Orlesian army if Celene is that set on marriage and the rest of the Ferelden one? It's unlikely they could win.

Modifié par Sarah1281, 06 septembre 2010 - 07:59 .

[Monica21]

Costin_Razvan wrote...

Oh, no one doubts for a second that Celene could win the Landsmeet vote.

But one is a fool to assume Fereldan's nobles wouldn't raise an army to fight the Crown.

Oh, I'm not saying that, I'm saying that assuming the Landsmeet would just vote against Celene is naive.

[MKDAWUSS]

Monica21 wrote...

Costin_Razvan wrote...

Would he grudgingly accept this or would he stage a rebellion that he couldn't win against the rest of Ferelden and Orlais?

Couldn't Win? Sarah, you severely underestimate how MUCH Fereldans hate Orlais.

Ferelden nobles were bought once. They killed their Queen. They could be bought again.

Heck, even the Warden was able to buy votes for the Landsmeet (I saved your son's ass - vote for me!)

[Costin_Razvan]

Ok Sarah. Now let's assume that the Warden is also not a Cousland. ( There are five Origins in game beside it and it does play an important role in the point I will make ).



Now Cailan doesn't know what happened in Highever, he doesn't know what happened to Vaughn as well, but what he knows is that Howe has troops in Highever and Denerim that have kept rebelions that have arisen in check. It's not out of hand to assume that Cailan would allow Howe to keep all those tittles he claims.



So Howe controls Denerim, Highever and Amaranthine, and since we know that Howe HATES Orlais it can be safely said that Loghain controls the North and East part of the entire Kingdom.



Also, Cailan's army is made up of Maric's Shield, Urien's and Loghain's men ( and Urien dies as per story I assume ). Who is the commander of Maric's Shield? Cauthrien, and who would Cauthrien gladly sell her soul for? Don't answer.



So Loghain has full control of the vast majority of the Royal Army at Ostagar, Howe's men and Ceorlic's Men. He has the dominant military force in Fereldan, and he controls the most important cities there as well ( Highever, Gwaren and Denerim ) and that's with only TWO nobles on his side ( and Anora of course ). It's not unfathomable that others would join as well, and maybe even Teagan ( if he survives that is ).



So now Loghain has an army and the means to supply it. He would certainly have the backing of many commoners and of nobles in the Bannorn. Celene has her Legions and whatever forces Cailan can bring together.



I wouldn't place my money on either side, but neither would be taken out easily. Also remember that Anora is a VERY popular Queen, and with Loghain's fame well...they would gain more support.

[Dean_the_Young]

Monica21 wrote...

Dean_the_Young wrote...

Monica21 wrote...

Dean_the_Young wrote...

Remind me again why there's any reason that the Landsmeet could simply not recognize any heir of Cailan's with the Empress of Orlais, or even replace Cailan himself?

They might, but by the time it gets to the Landsmeet I'd wager that Celene is smart enough to work out back room deals to make sure the vote goes in her favor.

'Her' favor? She's going to get Teyrn Loghain, Teyrn Cousland, Arl Eamon, the Bannoran, and all the rest of the influential power-players to make her Queen-Regent, a position not even Anora or the Hero of Ferelden can get?

Yes, "her" favor, because this deal serves her and Orlais more than anyone. And I did say earlier that she doesn't need Teagan, Loghain, and Bryce. Back room deals are back room deals for a reason. Promise a bann that he can have an arling, or an Arl that he can have a terynir and Ferelden's most powerful nobles are outvoted. This deal wouldn't be on the table if Celene didn't think she could make it work.

What works for Orlais doesn't necessarily work for Celene. Just letting the Child (if there is one) inherit both thrones, without Celene herself ever having any real authority over Ferelden, would benefit Orlais and could possibly be slipped through.

She does need Loghain and Bryce because the Teyrns are the most influential in the landsmeet, and either could start a civil war over the issue. With both Teyrns and their allies in one camp, even if Eamon is out of the way, what minority of remaining nobility is going to actually remain to challenge two of the three most powerful men in the land?

'She can bribe them' is a handwave that doesn't really cover it. The Teyrns, as we see in the game, have the ability to end the game: if they don't like the game enough, they can overturn the board, storm out, and no one wins. And that's just two of them, ignorring the influence of Eamon.

[Giggles_Manically]

I doub that the kid of Celene and Calian would be accepted as King.

Many nobles, Banns, Arls, and Teyrns included would not accept it.



If they tried it the child would always be seen as an Orlesian half breed trying to take over Fereldan.

Not saying its impossible but there would be lots of resistance to it.

[Dean_the_Young]

Sure, but I feel (won't demand) it's far more possible than making Celene Empress-Consort to the Orlais-Ferelden Empire. He he raises the child, after all, could control the throne, and it could be a case of a cultural-Ferelden on the throne rather than an Orlesian. 50-50 custody or something.



That said, I think Cailan overestimates his own pull to get it accepted in the first place.

[Dean_the_Young]

Costin, all I'll point out is that Denerim need not fall to Loghain by default. Part of why Howe was able to take control was the loss of lives from Ostagar, and without them the city could remain in Vaughn or his father's hands, and they could remain loyal to the Crown. And if Denerim stays, it's the biggest piece of Ferelden real estate that matters (next to the Tower, perhaps).

[Giggles_Manically]

Dean_the_Young wrote...

Sure, but I feel (won't demand) it's far more possible than making Celene Empress-Consort to the Orlais-Ferelden Empire. He he raises the child, after all, could control the throne, and it could be a case of a cultural-Ferelden on the throne rather than an Orlesian. 50-50 custody or something.

That said, I think Cailan overestimates his own pull to get it accepted in the first place.

In cases in history where people tried this it dosent always end happily.
Poison, and steep stair cases where in abundance for the poor blighter.

All you have to do is say "ORLESIAN!" to get the whole country riled up.
Also if Loghain, Howe, Teagan and many Banns started doing this then Calian would see a very nasty civil war.
People do not accept leaders well who are forced on them. It may work in the short term but there are many pitfalls to consider.

It to soon to try something like this, increased trade, embassies, and mutal trust must be built. An union is not acceptable since many people still remeber the occupation, or heard horror stories of it.

[phaonica]

Sarah1281 wrote...

Costin_Razvan wrote...

Would he grudgingly accept this or would he stage a rebellion that he couldn't win against the rest of Ferelden and Orlais?

Couldn't Win? Sarah, you severely underestimate how MUCH Fereldans hate Orlais.

Aside from not actually answering the question, the AU scenario I'm working from is Cailan survived Ostagar which wasn't an epic disaster but it wasn't a victory either. The Orlesians came in before Loghain could put his plan to remove Cailan from power into effect (they were right at the border after all) and managed to end the Blight with much less Ferelden casualties than expected so there is some goodwill there. Regardless of how it's done, the Landsmeet agrees to this. Would Loghain also go along with it or would he have Gwaren rebel? I don't feel that Gwaren could beat the combined might of the rest of Ferelden and Orlais. Also, Bryce is dead as Howe massacred the Couslands still and Eamon wasn't important enough to get the Ashes for under the circumstances so he's still in a coma.

Edit: Sure, some others might join in but against the full might of the Orlesian army if Celene is that set on marriage and the rest of the Ferelden one? It's unlikely they could win.

I think you're asking if Loghain couldn't get the support he needed to oppose Orlais, would he still try, and Costin is trying to argue that he could get the support, so of course he would.

Assuming that for some reason Loghain could not get the military or political support he needed against Orlais ... then you'd have to assume that, stupid or not, that's what the people want. During the occupation, there were people who wanted to rebel, and so rebellion made sense. When no one wants to rebel, what are you fighting for? At that point, something that no one except you wants. He'd campaign against it for as long as Celene would allow. Then he'd probably find himself imprisoned or executed.

[Sarah1281]

So I've officially written my version of Cailan living long enough to announce this and Loghain's reaction. Loghain, of course, is against it but I tried to avoid a 'BTW, this side is wrong' message. Even if I think that the marriage is a horrible idea.

[Monica21]

Dean_the_Young wrote...
What works for Orlais doesn't necessarily work for Celene. Just letting the Child (if there is one) inherit both thrones, without Celene herself ever having any real authority over Ferelden, would benefit Orlais and could possibly be slipped through.

She does need Loghain and Bryce because the Teyrns are the most influential in the landsmeet, and either could start a civil war over the issue. With both Teyrns and their allies in one camp, even if Eamon is out of the way, what minority of remaining nobility is going to actually remain to challenge two of the three most powerful men in the land?

'She can bribe them' is a handwave that doesn't really cover it. The Teyrns, as we see in the game, have the ability to end the game: if they don't like the game enough, they can overturn the board, storm out, and no one wins. And that's just two of them, ignorring the influence of Eamon.

Okay, I'm still not entirely sure this would need the approval of the Landsmeet. Is there in-game evidence to support that?

That said, Celene was planning to come to Denerim to talk about a "permanent alliance." According to Gaider, this is a reference to marriage. Celene is savvy enough to know how to get this done. Maybe there's a scenario we hadn't thought of. Maybe Loghain dies in "battle" or Bryce has a horse-riding "accident." She reportedly poisoned her uncle and out-maneuvered three cousins to get the Orlesian throne. She's not going to agree to this without a plan and she's certainly not doing it because she loves Cailan. She's doing it as a power grab, and any consideration that it's less than that is naive.

"She can bribe them" is hardly hand-waving, considering five banns were bribed to kill their own queen. That's far worse than "oh, okay, she can be Queen-Consort, but only if she's nice to us."

Modifié par Monica21, 06 septembre 2010 - 09:08 .

[Dean_the_Young]

Giggles_Manically wrote...

Dean_the_Young wrote...

Sure, but I feel (won't demand) it's far more possible than making Celene Empress-Consort to the Orlais-Ferelden Empire. He he raises the child, after all, could control the throne, and it could be a case of a cultural-Ferelden on the throne rather than an Orlesian. 50-50 custody or something.

That said, I think Cailan overestimates his own pull to get it accepted in the first place.

In cases in history where people tried this it dosent always end happily.
Poison, and steep stair cases where in abundance for the poor blighter.

All you have to do is say "ORLESIAN!" to get the whole country riled up.
Also if Loghain, Howe, Teagan and many Banns started doing this then Calian would see a very nasty civil war.
People do not accept leaders well who are forced on them. It may work in the short term but there are many pitfalls to consider.

It to soon to try something like this, increased trade, embassies, and mutal trust must be built. An union is not acceptable since many people still remeber the occupation, or heard horror stories of it.

No argument about the outcomes, but people still tried it.

That people will likely overreach themselves does not mean that they don't overreach themselves, as the saying goes.

[Dean_the_Young]

Monica21 wrote...
Okay, I'm still not entirely sure this would need the approval of the Landsmeet. Is there in-game evidence to support that?

Maric, for example, wasn't automatically made King, even though his mother was Queen. Bryce Cousland could have been made King, but would have lost and had no interest. A Regent does need Landsmeet approval, and that goes for heirs as well as spouses.

That said, Celene was planning to come to Denerim to talk about a "permanent alliance." According to Gaider, this is a reference to marriage. Celene is savvy enough to know how to get this done. Maybe there's a scenario we hadn't thought of. Maybe Loghain dies in "battle" or Bryce has a horse-riding "accident." She reportedly poisoned her uncle and out-maneuvered three cousins to get the Orlesian throne. She's not going to agree to this without a plan and she's certainly not doing it because she loves Cailan. She's doing it as a power grab, and any consideration that it's less than that is naive.

That she outmaneuvered her Orlesian rivals does not mean she has to outmaneuver her Ferelden opponents. Cailan, after all, is coming to her. All she has to do to win is be gracious and compromise, and maybe, maybe renenge on something farther down the line. (Or not, if such a thing would be too risky.) Celene doesn't have to be an active participant in order to win this opportunity.

"She can bribe them" is hardly hand-waving, considering five banns were bribed to kill their own queen. That's far worse than "oh, okay, she can be Queen-Consort, but only if she's nice to us."

No, it's far easier. You don't have to live with a dead rebel queen in a country occupied for decades by the military superpower of the world, and it's only five lower nobles. The you have to live with a landsmeet decision, and with far more than just five people in on it.

[Costin_Razvan]

Dean_the_Young wrote...

Costin, all I'll point out is that Denerim need not fall to Loghain by default. Part of why Howe was able to take control was the loss of lives from Ostagar, and without them the city could remain in Vaughn or his father's hands, and they could remain loyal to the Crown. And if Denerim stays, it's the biggest piece of Ferelden real estate that matters (next to the Tower, perhaps).

Perhaps, but they would still suffer casualties at Ostagar, and need I remind you that Vaughn's reason was not because of the troops they had lost but because the troops had been sent to Ostagar. Even with a victory, those troops wouldn't return soon and with the elves in uproar he would still welcome Howe.

As for the Tower. Uldred almost convinced the Mages with Loghain, until Wynne interfered, but would she interfere now? Don't think so.