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[Big Blue Car]

Effort-posting OP, if you want to 'tldr' go somewhere else and do it.

To me it seems obvious that not everyone will be back as a crew member in ME3. There are many reasons for this, a few of them being;
-We know these characters, having new people to learn about it more interesting.
-Most of them may be dead. Having a dedicated crew spot and full dialogue for a possibly dead character is just not efficient for the devs.
-Plot-wise most of them could be more interesting as NPCs.
-ME3 will very likely involve Sheps gathering all the different groups for the battle against the Reapers. Having these trusted ex-crew as liasons for the groups works because it's a plot device so Sheps has to do everything "They only trust you Shepard, only you can unite the galaxy!".

So this is my idea of what we can expect from the characters, and I'd like to see other peoples ideas too.

Kaidan/Ashley - These two are essentially the same character in terms of their role in the game; they are Alliance soldiers who are definitely alive. As the weren't crew in ME2 to ensure that they would be alive for ME3, they will almost certainly be full crew. Also an LI, which makes full crew more likely.

Liara - We'll know more after the new DLC, but for now we know that she is almost certainly alive and so will likely be a full crew member in ME3. Alternatively, I personally think she would be great in an Illusive man-type role, giving you advice and missions using the Shadowbroker intel she will likely be in charge of after the DLC. Also an LI.

Garrus - My man Garrus will be back for sure, likely as a full crew member. He's a fan favourite and more importantly unless Sheps disappears for another 2 years he has nowhere else to go. He had pretty decent plot-armour in the final mission and I'd be shocked if he wasn't still fighting the good fight on the front-lines with Shepard. Also an LI.

Tali - Fan favourite, but potentially more interesting as a hero of and representative of the Quarians than full crew. But she will be full crew, no doubt. Also an LI.

Wrex - Leader of the new Krogan civilisation. I doubt he'll be in the crew, but he's sure to be important to the plot to help you recruit the Krogan.

Miranda - Had a shed load of plot-armour in the final mission, has a big name voice-actor, dramatically left her boss out of loyalty to you and is an LI; she'll be back. I also can't see a real NPC role for her either, so likely full crew.

Jacob - Trickier, he's kind of bland and one of the least popular characters, and he doesn't have a real niche as an NPC either. I could see him training special forces for Sheps new army though, hanging around the base as an NPC rather like Doc Chakwas, easily replaced with a generic drill sergeant if he died. But then, he is an LI, so possibly full crew.

Mordin - Well, he's getting a bit old for front-line action. I could easily see him as a resident scientist NPC on your ship, again replaced by a generic scientist if he died. 

Jack - Leader of a pirate fleet you need to recruit baby, you know that would be cool. Aside from that I can't see her as an important NPC, plus she's an LI, plus she's one of the more interesting characters with a lot of potential character development. I think she could well be full crew, but pirate queen would be cooler.

Grunt - Shepard is his clan-leader, and he loves to fight. Like Garrus, I'd be surprised if he wasn't front-lining it with you right from the start. Decent bit of plot-armour on him too. And really, without copying him or Wrex I can't think of how another Krogan crew member could be interesting.

Samara - Meh. She's a respected Asari, and her friendship with you could help you recruit the Justicars to help fight the Reapers. I expect her to be an NPC in that role, replaced by a generic asari if she died.

Thane - Well by all rights he should be dead. Could be a link to the Drell and Hanar, though what use the jellyfish could be in a fight is questionably. Although since they would be facing the ones who destroyed the Enkindlers it would cool if they went all Blasto. I can see him as a full crew, especially as he's an LI. 

Legion - The badass robot is a fan favourite with a lot more story left to tell. Like Tali, he could be a representative to recruit his race but is also too cool not to be full crew. Tricky one.

Zaeed - DLC character and not a representative of any particular group, cameo NPC role at best.

Kasumi - Ditto.

Your thoughts?