I know this thread is a little old, but I'm having the exact same problem, and I've yet to find anyone else posting with a similar problem.
I can see the process running in Task Manager, but it quits after several seconds. In fact I've only been able to successfully launch the TS once (opened the single player module, checked in/out resources, modified a few uti/erf files), and that was after a two day long marathon of installing/uninstalling the toolset and following the various "fixes" (db restore, manual db restore/create, mssql2008) mentioned in the wiki. The d@mn thing worked fine on my old crappy P4 machine...
@trumpdog - When you say "CA security software" I assume you're referring to an antivirus program, not to MS Certificate Authority, correct?
-XP Pro (SP3!) / PhenomIIx6 / 4Gb ram / toolset v1.0.1008.0 / mssql2008r2exp