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Had it Not Been Stopped, Would Humanity Have Won the First Contact War?


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#1
General User

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Ah, yes. “Humans.” The race of bipedal primates allegedly waiting beyond Relay 314. We have dismissed that claim.
 
This is a topic that I believe to be deserving of its own thread.
 
Humanity stood a decent shot of winning outright the First Contact War, had it gone on, and a very good shot of inflicting such losses on the turians to force them to sue for peace. 
 
In addition to humanity’s penchant of innovative tactics, which Zulu_DFA  so very rightly pointed out in another thread, humanity and the Alliance obviously had not signed on to any of the Citadel Conventions at the time of the War of Turian Aggression; so innovative technologies such as AI, which (as EDI has shown us can be a decisive advantage) would be very much on the table.
 
Humanity, as the victims of outside aggression, would enjoy the advantage of an interior position for the entirety of the war. In other words, the turians would have had to take and hold human possessions, but our side could limit the aims of any offensives to raids and taking relays, instead of entire planets or star systems.
 
And if the turians did reach out to their fellow Council races for aid, would they help? The turians were forced to pay reparations to humans for the war; that strongly implies they were also forced to accept some sort of war guilt clause. It sure wasn’t humanity that forced them to accept either of those things, so it must have been the asari and/or the salarians. Would they really be willing to send soldiers to die to support the turians in a war they obviously opposed, at least on some level?
 
Besides, how long would the war go on before humanity started discovering, and reaching out to the races the Council has wronged over the years, namely the krogan and the quarians?
 
Ships with quarian crews, ground armies with krogan troops, and humans setting the strategy and tactics. Sounds like a Council-crushing force to me. 

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Modifié par General User, 26 novembre 2010 - 04:23 .


#2
Zulu_DFA

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Without doubt.

THIS IS SPARTA!!!

Modifié par Zulu_DFA, 24 novembre 2010 - 07:17 .


#3
PillarBiter

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No. Turians were vastly advanced, and were on the council, meaning that they'd have backup from slarians and asari if it went bad. We would have been pulverised.

#4
Daewan

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Only if the Council had been willing to authorize a complete and total extinction of Humanity. Humans use tactics that are markedly alien to what the Council races understand or can anticipate. Humans do not fight in a civilized fashion. How long do you think it would have taken the Alliance to start destroying supply lines - which means, going after the Volus and effectively crippling the Turian military? Or start activating random relays to find shortcuts because not only would Humans not know any better, Humans wouldn't care (remember the UNC: Espionage Probe? The one with the nuclear warheads). The Council was correct to appease the Alliance before things got out of hand.

#5
LorDC

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I don't think so. Main problem is that at the time of FCW humanity had pretty much only Solar System under it's control. It just don't have enough room for any maneuvers or strategy.

Turian fleet outnumber humanity fleet around 5 to 1. Basically the only thing Turians need to do to win the war is charge straight to the Earth(which they would do considering their straightforward tactics). When Turian fleet is above the Earth the only possible answer for Alliance navy is to defend planet. And I seriously doubt it is possible to win such battle. Ok, superior tactics. But Turian's aren't just bunch of morons. They were galactic peacekeepers for more than thousand years. And again numbers are on Turian side. Even if Alliance will be able to inflict 1/4.9 casualties it will be loss. There will be no time to build new ships or regroup or bring reserves.

Comparison to SPARTA!!! is invalid. In FCW it is not 300 Spartans near Thermopylae but 300 Spartans on the walls of Athens.

#6
wizardryforever

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I don't think so.  Remember that the Alliance didn't have that big of a fleet during the First Contact War (they didn't even know if there were aliens to defend against).  They won so decisively at Shanxi because the Turians underestimated them, not because they were "better" than the Turians.  The novelty of the humans' tactics wouldn't have meant too much against the sheer size of the Turian military.  Also bear in mind that if the humans persisted in doing things that the Council deemed recklessly dangerous, that would only serve to pull in the other Council races, effectively pitting all of Council space against the meager defenses of a few small colonies and Earth.

#7
General User

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The comparison to Thermopylae is far from invalid. The structure of the mass relays network makes possible funneling tactics similar to what King Leonidas used, when on the defense.  While at the same time the realities of FTL combat favor the exact same “slash, burn, and run” tactics Nathan Bedford Forrest favored when on the offense.
 
These are the exact same roles humanity would find itself playing had the First Contact War continued.
 
I’m not sure we would have to take and hold turian planets to win the war.

The Citadel Council has all the fidelity of your typical rattlesnake. Even odds say if humanity scores a few major victories (like 2nd Shanxi), the Council dumps the turians as their military arm and starts buttering up humanity.

Modifié par General User, 24 novembre 2010 - 07:56 .


#8
LorDC

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General User wrote...
Humanity, as the victims of outside aggression, would enjoy the advantage of an interior position for the entirety of the war. In other words, the turians would have had to take and hold human possessions, but our side could limit the aims of any offensives to raids and taking relays, instead of entire planets or star systems.

Humanity's only possession at the time of FCW was Earth. Lost that and war is over.

General User wrote...
And if the turians did reach out to their fellow Council races for aid, would they help? The turians were forced to pay reparations to humans for the war; that strongly implies they were also forced to accept some sort of war guilt clause. It sure wasn’t humanity that forced them to accept either of those things, so it must have been the asari and/or the salarians. Would they really be willing to send soldiers to die to support the turians in a war they obviously opposed, at least on some level?

Full scale conflict in FCW would only have been possible if Turian's had support of other Council races so whole point is moot.

General User wrote...
Besides, how long would the war go on before humanity started discovering, and reaching out to the races the Council has wronged over the years, namely the krogan and the quarians?
 
Ships with quarian crews, ground armies with krogan troops, and humans setting the strategy and tactics. Sounds like a Council-crushing force to me.

As I said earlier there wouldn't be any time for this. One or two big fights and that's all.

#9
Zulu_DFA

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Comparison to SPARTA!!! is invalid. In FCW it is not 300 Spartans near Thermopylae but 300 Spartans on the walls of Athens.


Athens lost to Sparta too in the end.

#10
LorDC

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Zulu_DFA wrote...

Comparison to SPARTA!!! is invalid. In FCW it is not 300 Spartans near Thermopylae but 300 Spartans on the walls of Athens.

Athens lost to Sparta too in the end.

That's why I don't like comparisons. It never tells anything about topic of discussion, only about man who is using it.
Don't pretend you didn't understand what I was trying to say. You are too smart Zulu.

#11
Giggles_Manically

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Then Sparta got knocked out by Thebes at the battle of Leuctra.

#12
Malanek

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Interesting question. Humans activated the relay, could they shut it down temporarily as a defence mechanism and only reopen it each time they need to move out? Even if you they couldn't, it wouldn't be that hard to blockade a relay. The Turians wouldn't have that luxury because of interstellar trade. If the Salarians and Asari did join up with the Turians you would have to say they would win but I find the assumption that they would, extremely unconvincing. Morally the Turians were wrong and that wouldn't have gone down well with the Asari.

#13
thompsmt

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No. Amateurs study tactics; professionals study logistics.



Humanity, even by the events of ME2 in 2185, is still WAY to concentrated on Earth. While this does offer the virtue of being a single point of supply, it's still way to vulnerable to concentrated attacks. Mining in the Asteroid Belt? Easy to pick off. While I doubt the Turians would have gone to the point of using Dreadnoughts for Orbital Pacification, any spaceborne infrastructure is pretty much going to become rubble very quickly. There's simply no second homeworld to retreat to.



The Turians had 1400+ years of being a Council Race at the start of the First Contact War. This gives them a massive industrial base compared to the Alliance. That's 1400 years of building warships, and crewing them. And being the defacto Citadel Navy for much of that time means they'd have a UK Royal Navy in 1914 complex.

#14
Guest_pzvie43_*

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If anything I could see a Council civil war of sorts if the turians had pursued the campaign against us.



The asari would never have thrown in their support, and the salarians likely wouldn't have either.

#15
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LorDC wrote...
Humanity's only possession at the time of FCW was Earth. Lost that and war is over.

Well, there was Shanxi....   

The truth is we don’t know exactly how many colony worlds humanity had, or what their populations or industrial capacities were at the time of the WTA.  We can assume minimal, though whether that translates to insignificant is an open question.


LorDC wrote...
Full scale conflict in FCW would only have been possible if turian's had support of other Council races so whole point is moot.

That’s my point! Full scale war was not possible because the turians did not have the support of the Council. If the Hierarchy had insisted on pressing ahead, they would have had to do so alone.


LorDC wrote...
As I said earlier there wouldn't be any time for this. One or two big fights and that's all.


Depends on the outcome of those fights.

Modifié par General User, 24 novembre 2010 - 08:10 .


#16
Malanek

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I don't think there would have been any big fights. Assume it is, at least publicly, humanity against the turians alone. The Turians would quite easily be able to take all the other human colonys, humans wouldn't have the resources to defend them. They could easily however stop anything coming through the Sol relay. This leads humanity to fight a guerilla war all the while the larger turian econmy struggles under it's own weight. Ultimately I don't think the Turians could win, it would be a very long stalemate but with the Turians suffering a lot more.

Modifié par Malanek999, 24 novembre 2010 - 08:15 .


#17
CroGamer002

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Short answer:

Yes.



Long answer:

Definitely.

#18
Inquisitor Recon

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I may generally be pro-humanity, but the turians must have a much larger navy at that point and time, they would probably be the victors.



But then again the Systems Alliance would have a young admiral Hackett on it's side who would be capable of feats of amazing badassery.

#19
Giggles_Manically

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True Hackett is worth like 20 Dreadnoughts before he has his morning coffee.



I want him leading the fleet against the Reapers in ME3.

#20
General User

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The young Ensign Hackett?

Modifié par General User, 24 novembre 2010 - 08:23 .


#21
Inquisitor Recon

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Hackett would likely only be a captain at that point however.

Without Hackett the turians would probably kick our asses, however with him in the mix anything could happen.

#22
philiposophy

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The turian military is huge. In 2185, they have 5 times as many dreadnoughts and it's fair to assume that they have far more of other classes, even if the Alliance builds a lot of cruisers and carriers. Plus, their society is very militaristic and almost everyone is a trained member of the reserves.



If the First Contact War escalated to full scale war, I think the turians would have subjugated humanity and made them a vassal like the volus. Council intervention benefitted humanity more than the turians.

#23
Inquisitor Recon

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A vassal state? Never! Better to meet them on earth itself with rifle and bayonet!

#24
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And rocks and spears!  And teeth and nails!

#25
Inquisitor Recon

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I don't know about the teeth and nails part. Turians have talons and look like they could bite off a chunk of you. But rocks and spears yes!