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Had it Not Been Stopped, Would Humanity Have Won the First Contact War?


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#26
LorDC

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Malanek999 wrote...
They could easily however stop anything coming through the Sol relay. This leads humanity to fight a guerilla war all the while the larger turian econmy struggles under it's own weight. Ultimately I don't think the Turians could win, it would be a very long stalemate but with the Turians suffering a lot more.

How humanity is supposed to stop things coming from Charon relay?
Codex entries and other sources don't say anything about posibility of shutting relay down. Heavy restrictions on activating unknown relays suggest that it is not possible. Also if Charon relay is shut down then guerilla raids aren't possible. And if shutting it down is impossible what prevents turians to move all their forces in one bulk and go straight to Earth?
And even if it is possible to block Charon relay form our side why it is not possible the other way. Even if it is linked to many other relays 5 to 1 numbers allow turians to block all relays connected to Charon. And if humans move enough forces to push through blockade it defeats the whole purpose of hiding in Sol system.

#27
Zulu_DFA

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Giggles_Manically wrote...

Then Sparta got knocked out by Thebes at the battle of Leuctra.


Then it kicked some Thebian arse in the battle of Mantinaea. Then Macedonians came to power and the Spartans always remaind pain in their arse, until they joined the Romans. Are we done?

#28
Stazro

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The reason the Turians lost the counter-attack on Shanxi is because they believed the humans to be already defeated. For the Turians it wasn't much more than a police action and they underestimated the humans. That would not happen again and then, when going for full scale confrontation their superior numbers, technology and experience with interstaller warfare would most probably have been decisive.

#29
Guest_My name is Legion_*

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Hell no. Humans would have been utterly destroyed. Turian losses would have been severe but remember their mentality is different to ours; they would be a win at all costs while humans would be survive at all costs. Very different aims.



They had at the time, a bigger fleet, better technology, a bigger empire. No, I'm pretty sure humanity would have been destroyed, though I do think a peace deal was best for everyone.

#30
Malanek

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LorDC wrote...

Malanek999 wrote...
They could easily however stop anything coming through the Sol relay. This leads humanity to fight a guerilla war all the while the larger turian econmy struggles under it's own weight. Ultimately I don't think the Turians could win, it would be a very long stalemate but with the Turians suffering a lot more.

How humanity is supposed to stop things coming from Charon relay?
Codex entries and other sources don't say anything about posibility of shutting relay down. Heavy restrictions on activating unknown relays suggest that it is not possible. Also if Charon relay is shut down then guerilla raids aren't possible. And if shutting it down is impossible what prevents turians to move all their forces in one bulk and go straight to Earth?
And even if it is possible to block Charon relay form our side why it is not possible the other way. Even if it is linked to many other relays 5 to 1 numbers allow turians to block all relays connected to Charon. And if humans move enough forces to push through blockade it defeats the whole purpose of hiding in Sol system.


In terms of shutting it down, I did put a question mark over it. Humans activated it in the first place, regardless of whether its possible there is an easy alternative - blockading. The last remaining protheans shut down relays to lock themselves away didn't they?

To blockade it station missiles there. Obliterate anything that comes through without permission. A missile is much cheaper and more efficient than a ship, the Turians would have to have millions more ships which they don't and can't.

As for the turians blockading relays out of the sol system I was under the impression that you could get to hundreds of other relays from it. It's possible that my knowledge of how the relays works is flawed and this was incorrect. Does it only connect to 5 other relays, all of which the Turians would have jurisdiction to blockade? Can anyone else confirm? If so then it would mean humans first move would have to blockade another relay which would then start getting complicated. You couldn't indefinately lock yourself away.

#31
Giggles_Manically

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Zulu_DFA wrote...

Giggles_Manically wrote...

Then Sparta got knocked out by Thebes at the battle of Leuctra.


Then it kicked some Thebian arse in the battle of Mantinaea. Then Macedonians came to power and the Spartans always remaind pain in their arse, until they joined the Romans. Are we done?

Not even close.

The Spartans became a meaningless relic after they were beaten.
They kept a stupid training regime going that produced outdated antiques.

Alexander and the Romans ignored them, the Spartans are only known for that 2 hour steroid ad 300. The Spartans are no shining example of anything.

#32
Dave of Canada

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Humanity wouldn't fight with honor and they wouldn't fight with the usual tactics of what Turians were used to, we'd see nukes and biological weapons involved against the Turians. The Turians, unable to deal with it, would probably have suffered greatly before winning or would've lost altogether. More ships mean nothing when you don't know how to fight your enemy.



This is assuming the Turians didn't run crying to the Asari or the Salarians, where human wouldn't have stood a chance due to the capabilities of all three races being able to outmatch anything the humans have.


#33
Malanek

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Dave of Canada wrote...

Humanity wouldn't fight with honor and they wouldn't fight with the usual tactics of what Turians were used to, we'd see nukes and biological weapons involved against the Turians. The Turians, unable to deal with it, would probably have suffered greatly before winning or would've lost altogether. More ships mean nothing when you don't know how to fight your enemy.

This is assuming the Turians didn't run crying to the Asari or the Salarians, where human wouldn't have stood a chance due to the capabilities of all three races being able to outmatch anything the humans have.

The Turians are no strangers to biological weapons, they did afterall enlist the Salarians to neuter the Krogans. I would have thought every standard ship to ship missile would be a nuke?

#34
Nashiktal

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Humanity would have lost. The Turians were a vast empire before the Alliance had even left the Sol system.



Also those thinking dirty fighting would save the humans, has not been keeping up with the cerberus news network.

#35
General User

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Malanek999 wrote...

LorDC wrote...

Malanek999 wrote...
They could easily however stop anything coming through the Sol relay. This leads humanity to fight a guerilla war all the while the larger turian econmy struggles under it's own weight. Ultimately I don't think the Turians could win, it would be a very long stalemate but with the Turians suffering a lot more.

How humanity is supposed to stop things coming from Charon relay?
Codex entries and other sources don't say anything about posibility of shutting relay down. Heavy restrictions on activating unknown relays suggest that it is not possible. Also if Charon relay is shut down then guerilla raids aren't possible. And if shutting it down is impossible what prevents turians to move all their forces in one bulk and go straight to Earth?
And even if it is possible to block Charon relay form our side why it is not possible the other way. Even if it is linked to many other relays 5 to 1 numbers allow turians to block all relays connected to Charon. And if humans move enough forces to push through blockade it defeats the whole purpose of hiding in Sol system.


In terms of shutting it down, I did put a question mark over it. Humans activated it in the first place, regardless of whether its possible there is an easy alternative - blockading. The last remaining protheans shut down relays to lock themselves away didn't they?

To blockade it station missiles there. Obliterate anything that comes through without permission. A missile is much cheaper and more efficient than a ship, the Turians would have to have millions more ships which they don't and can't.

As for the turians blockading relays out of the sol system I was under the impression that you could get to hundreds of other relays from it. It's possible that my knowledge of how the relays works is flawed and this was incorrect. Does it only connect to 5 other relays, all of which the Turians would have jurisdiction to blockade? Can anyone else confirm? If so then it would mean humans first move would have to blockade another relay which would then start getting complicated. You couldn't indefinately lock yourself away.


I'm given to understand that the Charon Relay links directly to the Arcturus system, which is a local hub of sorts in the network. 
If this is so, it would be another advantage humanity would have in the war.  Humanity could send out raiding parties in umpteen different directions, and still have a fall back point as ideally suited for defense as anything can be in ME.

#36
ajw

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No I don't think so.



The Turians had many more ships and millions more soldiers than the Alliance. They would have rolled over the mere 200 warships the Alliance had at the time of the First Contact War, proceeded to destroy the incomplete Arcturus Station before moving onto Sol and the other Human worlds in the local cluster - worlds like Demeter and Amaterasu (we don't know exactly where they are but I'm willing to bet there in the local cluster in places like Alpha Centauri and Epsilon Eridani both of which would be easy to get to in a day at most via conventional FTL).



Earth, Mars, Demeter and Amaterasu would have quickly fallen to the Turians - remember the Turians care not a wit for civilian casualties and are willing to wipe out whole city blocks of civilians to kill just one soldier.



Anyone who thinks the canon humanity could have won the First Contact War is being stupid. The Turians just have to many advantages.

#37
Snowraptor

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of course Humanity would have lost, they were facing a race that has had a space fleet for hundreds of years, the question is obvlivious.

#38
Snowraptor

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Dave of Canada wrote...

Humanity wouldn't fight with honor and they wouldn't fight with the usual tactics of what Turians were used to, we'd see nukes and biological weapons involved against the Turians. The Turians, unable to deal with it, would probably have suffered greatly before winning or would've lost altogether. More ships mean nothing when you don't know how to fight your enemy.

This is assuming the Turians didn't run crying to the Asari or the Salarians, where human wouldn't have stood a chance due to the capabilities of all three races being able to outmatch anything the humans have.


what makes you think that the turians, a race that has far more combat experience than humanity and a much larger fleet would be crushed so simply, they would use nuklear weapons to on humanity, its kindof dumb to say that a species that has been around for hundreds of years to be wiped out by a race that is new to space combat coming up against an enemy more advanced with much more training against other species other than humas, not to mention the turians that got beaten were a police force and not the actual military

#39
Snowraptor

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lol, i mean humans not humus

#40
MrFob

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It is stated somewhere (codex, Revelation, can't remember now) that when the asari intervened, the turians were about to start the real attack with their fleet. Everything that happened in "the war" was just some probing actions of the turians. The humans on the other hand had never even met another culture before. They were severely out-manned and outgunned. The only reason why humans have advanced technology at the time of ME1 is because they integrated very quickly with the other races and learned a lot of their technology. They may not have been completely defenseless during the first contact war but driving the turians out of Shanxi was a stroke of luck.

So no, we would have been crushed by the turians, probably too quickly to come up with something so sophisticated as biological weapons and the like (as suggested). Besides, if it really came that far (and it wouldn’t have), keep in mind that the turians are ruthless tacticians too who were not afraid to use biological weapons in the past themselves. They just wouldn’t have had any need.

#41
Soahfreako

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MrFob wrote...

It is stated somewhere (codex, Revelation, can't remember now) that when the asari intervened, the turians were about to start the real attack with their fleet. Everything that happened in "the war" was just some probing actions of the turians. The humans on the other hand had never even met another culture before. They were severely out-manned and outgunned. The only reason why humans have advanced technology at the time of ME1 is because they integrated very quickly with the other races and learned a lot of their technology. They may not have been completely defenseless during the first contact war but driving the turians out of Shanxi was a stroke of luck.
So no, we would have been crushed by the turians, probably too quickly to come up with something so sophisticated as biological weapons and the like (as suggested). Besides, if it really came that far (and it wouldn’t have), keep in mind that the turians are ruthless tacticians too who were not afraid to use biological weapons in the past themselves. They just wouldn’t have had any need.


You say that as if they were the ones that made said biological weapon.

#42
Soahfreako

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Gah double post...

Modifié par Soahfreako, 24 novembre 2010 - 10:55 .


#43
Kaiser Mat

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Depends on how long it would've taken Arcturus and Earth to fall, and if Sovereign would've initiated some sort of encounter with humanity by then.

#44
Soahfreako

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Kaiser Mat wrote...

Depends on how long it would've taken Arcturus and Earth to fall, and if Sovereign would've initiated some sort of encounter with humanity by then.

How does Sovereign enter this?! The war was 25+ years before the events of ME1...

Modifié par Soahfreako, 24 novembre 2010 - 10:56 .


#45
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Kaiser Mat wrote...

Depends on how long it would've taken Arcturus and Earth to fall, and if Sovereign would've initiated some sort of encounter with humanity by then.



Now THAT is an interesting point! The Reapers have plans for humanity, they may have intervened (probably behind the scenes) to give humanity the means to at least survive.

#46
Soahfreako

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General User wrote...

Kaiser Mat wrote...

Depends on how long it would've taken Arcturus and Earth to fall, and if Sovereign would've initiated some sort of encounter with humanity by then.



Now THAT is an interesting point! The Reapers have plans for humanity, they may have intervened (probably behind the scenes) to give humanity the means to at least survive.


No. Sovereign was still very much inactive at this time in ME history. Read the books.

#47
McBeath

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No, absolutely not.



The Turians faced down the Krogan, who didn't fight with "honour". The Krogan pummled Turian settlements from orbit, devastating the civilian population. The Turian response? Fight harder.



The Krogan had at least knowledge of Nuclear weapons(since they had developed them long before they were uplifted), yet the Turians weren't detered at all.



Furthermore, at the time humanity had no idea that any other races existed at the time: I believe it's in ME1 that Shepard comments "we didn't even know there were aliens to garrison against" when talking to Terra Firma. Humans had no idea where the Turians, Volus or any other race was. Without that kind of intel how could they wage a war?



While the Alliance was able to push the Turians out of Shanxi's orbit, that was it. The Turians had thought that they had destroyed the bulk of the human forces in space when they attacked, and the Alliance was able to exploit that mistake. It's doubtful that the Turians would have made that mistake again, as the codex entry stated that they were gearing up for full scale war when the Council interviened.



If Shanxi was occupied by a single Turian patrol then how much damage could the entire fleet do? The sheer number of dreadnoughts would overwhelm whatever forces Humanity could bring to bare against them.



Once the control of space is lost so is the war. At Shanxi the Turians didn't try to garrison or hold territory, they used drones to search out human military forces and then pummeled them from orbit, heedless of the collateral damage. I don't see why they wouldn't do that to Earth.

#48
Malanek

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OK, done a little research to refresh my memory. Here is some points about the first contact war...

However, in 2157, their actions caught the notice of the turians, who found human explorers reactivating an inactive mass relay known as Relay 314. This was forbidden under the Citadel regulations after the Rachni Wars, but instead of negotiating, the turians opened fire. One starship escaped to warn the Alliance; a retaliatory force destroyed turian vessels, and the situation quickly escalated into war.
With humanity's resources stretched thin due to exploration efforts, the turians managed to defeat several scout and patrol fleets.

The turians - who were also suffering logistical problems, as they had to ship in all their food - believed they had defeated the bulk of the enemy forces. But they would be proven wrong when a month later Admiral Kastanie Drescher led the Second Fleet against Shanxi, catching the turians by surprise and evicting them from the planet.
In the end, only six hundred and twenty-three human lives were lost with slightly more turian casualties. The only notable engagements were the turian attack on Shanxi and its subsequent liberation by human forces.

So yes the Turians are more advanced but hardly shone in the first contact war. They launched a surprise attack and it eventually led to a sizable points victory for humanity. IMO this completely and utterly rebuffs all those who claimed the technological advantage is insurmountable, this simply isn't the case or this wouldn't have happened. It also does hint at activating mass relays, why can they not be deactivated?

Further...
As the headquarters of the Alliance military, Arcturus Station is the command center of the fleet, and is conveniently located at the nexus of several mass relays. Furthermore, it guards the mass relay leading to Earth. Arcturus's centralized location makes it an ideal choke point for defense as well as a jumping-off point for further exploration.

OK so Charon only linked to Arcturus but Arturus links to many. This is the one which gets blockaded. This also allows humans years of expansion. I'm now very confident with my original speculation. Assuming it was Humans vs only Turian and Volus, it would be a long drawn out stalemate with the turians suffering significantly worse economic damage due to the respective sizes. Humans would easily defend arcturas and launch guerilla attacks on Turian interests. All the while the technology gap would decrease.

Modifié par Malanek999, 24 novembre 2010 - 11:29 .


#49
Kaiser Mat

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Soahfreako wrote...

General User wrote...

Kaiser Mat wrote...

Depends on how long it would've taken Arcturus and Earth to fall, and if Sovereign would've initiated some sort of encounter with humanity by then.



Now THAT is an interesting point! The Reapers have plans for humanity, they may have intervened (probably behind the scenes) to give humanity the means to at least survive.


No. Sovereign was still very much inactive at this time in ME history. Read the books.


"Inactive" is a pretty abstract and unreliable term when it comes to Reapers; we don't know for sure if the artifact was truly inactive - as in hibernating, if they even truly do that - when Shu Qian and the Alliance first discovered it. For all we know it was merely waiting for a faction, group or individual to take the initiative in making contact with it.

Sovereign (or simply Nazara at the time, I guess) was desperate, has been for over two millenia by that point. If he had somehow picked up on this conflict, I wouldn't deem it beyond him to head for either Earth or Arcturus, preferably the former, and give the galactic newcomers the means through which to defeat their newfound enemies.

#50
Soahfreako

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Kaiser Mat wrote...

Soahfreako wrote...

General User wrote...

Kaiser Mat wrote...

Depends on how long it would've taken Arcturus and Earth to fall, and if Sovereign would've initiated some sort of encounter with humanity by then.



Now THAT is an interesting point! The Reapers have plans for humanity, they may have intervened (probably behind the scenes) to give humanity the means to at least survive.


No. Sovereign was still very much inactive at this time in ME history. Read the books.


"Inactive" is a pretty abstract and unreliable term when it comes to Reapers; we don't know for sure if the artifact was truly inactive - as in hibernating, if they even truly do that - when Shu Qian and the Alliance first discovered it. For all we know it was merely waiting for a faction, group or individual to take the initiative in making contact with it.

Sovereign (or simply Nazara at the time, I guess) was desperate, has been for over two millenia by that point. If he had somehow picked up on this conflict, I wouldn't deem it beyond him to head for either Earth or Arcturus, preferably the former, and give the galactic newcomers the means through which to defeat their newfound enemies.

I didn't mean inactive as in shut down, I meant inactive as in he wasn't doing much other than observing.