Had it Not Been Stopped, Would Humanity Have Won the First Contact War?
#51
Posté 24 novembre 2010 - 11:34
Humanity would have entered a war of attrition if it was not stopped when it was, and the Turians would win out long term, since they would have better logistics with more systems to control and at least the Salarians would get involved.
Just how the Krogan were treated and also how the Council ignored the Quarians, and Batarians in their time of need and how they cut contact with the Yahg, humanity was seemingly handed a huge favor with the quick resolution of the fight.
#52
Posté 24 novembre 2010 - 11:52
This truth casts severe doubt on the idea that the turians could simply mass their fleet and move on Earth.
First and foremost, the turians had no way of knowing where Earth was! The humans were activating relays of their own initiative. Turian scouts would have to chart a route to Earth. Given how many systems Arcturus leads to, this is no small task, especially fighting a prepared enemy all the way.
Second, the turians are the military arm of the Council, most of their fleet is committed (Krogan DMZ, Terminus Borders, keep an eye on the batarians, etc.), not all of it would be available to be moved against Earth. Not without dire political and military consequences elsewhere in the galaxy.
And third, the asari (and presumably the salarians to a lesser extent) obviously felt strong enough to intervene diplomatically to stop the turian aggression. Unless the turians win big, and win quick, the turians could easily be looking at galactic isolation ala the batarians. So, politically anyway, time is on humanity’s side. The Council is more likely to, if not directly aid humanity, become neutral in humanity’s favor.
Modifié par General User, 24 novembre 2010 - 11:52 .
#53
Posté 24 novembre 2010 - 11:55
Having more systems to control means worse logistics, not better. Humans have to supply ships, Turians have to supply fleets. Humans are fighting a guerilla war, Turians need to maintain a larger presence over a much greater space. The logistics favour humans to a staggering degree.Praetor Shepard wrote...
Humanity would have entered a war of attrition if it was not stopped when it was, and the Turians would win out long term, since they would have better logistics with more systems to control and at least the Salarians would get involved.
#54
Posté 25 novembre 2010 - 12:00
wizardryforever wrote...
I don't think so. Remember that the Alliance didn't have that big of a fleet during the First Contact War (they didn't even know if there were aliens to defend against). They won so decisively at Shanxi because the Turians underestimated them, not because they were "better" than the Turians. The novelty of the humans' tactics wouldn't have meant too much against the sheer size of the Turian military. Also bear in mind that if the humans persisted in doing things that the Council deemed recklessly dangerous, that would only serve to pull in the other Council races, effectively pitting all of Council space against the meager defenses of a few small colonies and Earth.
Agreed
#55
Posté 25 novembre 2010 - 12:01
Modifié par Mr Waffles, 25 novembre 2010 - 12:03 .
#56
Posté 25 novembre 2010 - 12:08
#57
Posté 25 novembre 2010 - 12:33
Malanek999 wrote...
Having more systems to control means worse logistics, not better. Humans have to supply ships, Turians have to supply fleets. Humans are fighting a guerilla war, Turians need to maintain a larger presence over a much greater space. The logistics favour humans to a staggering degree.Praetor Shepard wrote...
Humanity would have entered a war of attrition if it was not stopped when it was, and the Turians would win out long term, since they would have better logistics with more systems to control and at least the Salarians would get involved.
Well the mass relays would serve as hardpoints for the Turians as well, so combat would become battles of attrition at mass relays, so with so many unknowns between the two, regardless of battle strategy and tactics and rules of engagement, the humans would be fighting un uphill battle. (I hate to draw this analogy but you could try to compare the Systems Alliance to Japan in WWII, trying to expand for resources against the Turians played by the Americans from across the other pond, were the activation of dormant relays is tantamount to invading neighbors) so you might win short term, but sustaining the effort would grow more difficult with so many limits on replacing and rebuilding your fleets when the expansion was started as a result of lacking resources.
What I meant with better logistics is with more places with a reasonalby developed infrastructure for resources over the long term so the Turians then have the advantage. So if they lose one system they still have other developed systems to keep up war effort.
So short Term, humanity has the advantage since they still have Arcturus and are being underestimated, but long term would be a different story.
Also long term humanity has the nuke'um mentality, so the Turians would have more sympathizers, especially as a Council race, and have already been nuked by Krogans.
So humanity would be painted as the "barbarians at the gate" of galactic society with the Turians tasked to keeping them out, look how the German soldiers were demonized, and this is two different species not cultures.
#58
Posté 25 novembre 2010 - 12:46
Praetor Shepard wrote...
What I meant with better logistics is with more places with a reasonalby developed infrastructure for resources over the long term so the Turians then have the advantage. So if they lose one system they still have other developed systems to keep up war effort.
I do agree with that although it is a larger economy, definately not a logistical advantage. However because of the defensive properties of the mass relay system the larger economy doesn't count for much because they cannot invade. And throughout history guerilla wars have time and time again defeated nations with vastly bigger economies. And smaller economies, although they cannot match the production potential, are always more responsive and able to sustain stress for longer periods of time.
Praetor Shepard wrote...
Also long term humanity has the nuke'um mentality, so the Turians would have more sympathizers, especially as a Council race, and have already been nuked by Krogans.
Yes, the political war is something they have to be careful of. But diplomatically humans would manage. The Turians were the aggressors, bigger and technologically superior. These are powerful weapons to use in politics.
This I completely disagree with. The Human forces are too small to be seen as a threat. As I said, the Turians were the aggressors.Praetor Shepard wrote...
So humanity would be painted as the "barbarians at the gate" of galactic society with the Turians tasked to keeping them out, look how the German soldiers were demonized, and this is two different species not cultures.
#59
Posté 25 novembre 2010 - 12:56
While I think the advantage of Humanity actually having explored on one side of the Mass Relays while the Turians have to conquer and explore versus the Human naval strategy has been underplayed, I do think by sheer mass the Turians would eventually win... vis a vis humanity alone.
But if Humanity holds out past the initial skirmishes, and doesn't get blown away? If it proves itself capable, useful even, and so desperate for allies that they won't ask too many questions no matter who, or what, offers?
#60
Posté 25 novembre 2010 - 01:28
Malanek999 wrote...
Yes, the political war is something they have to be careful of. But diplomatically humans would manage. The Turians were the aggressors, bigger and technologically superior. These are powerful weapons to use in politics.Praetor Shepard wrote...
Also long term humanity has the nuke'um mentality, so the Turians would have more sympathizers, especially as a Council race, and have already been nuked by Krogans.This I completely disagree with. The Human forces are too small to be seen as a threat. As I said, the Turians were the aggressors.Praetor Shepard wrote...
So humanity would be painted as the "barbarians at the gate" of galactic society with the Turians tasked to keeping them out, look how the German soldiers were demonized, and this is two different species not cultures.
Turians responded aggressively according to Council regulations on starting up relays, possibly because humanity was so close to activating Relay 314.
Then the use of nukes in a protracted war is where it seems that humanity would have the greatest problem with diplomacy.
And since they are so new, the other species might not have the translators setup to even understand humanity, which is another road block for diplomacy and partly why I feel that humanity would lose in a long drawn out fight, because the galaxy would see humanity's actions but not understand their motives and goals. So humanity would have to overcome those expectations of behavior that the other species anticipate. Look at the Krogan, Batarians, Quarians and Yahg.
For a contemporary example, if North Korea would sober up and finally sue for real peace after all of their antics would they be taken seriously or still seen with suspicion? And what if they do or do not have an ulterior motive?
I'd guess it's kinda like Cerberus trying to go legit after all of the crap they've done to others.
Edit: spell check! why?
Modifié par Praetor Shepard, 25 novembre 2010 - 01:31 .
#61
Posté 25 novembre 2010 - 01:46
Completely disagree again. Council regulations were not known by the humans (do they even apply to non-citadel species?) and the turians overreacted to a serious degree. The fact they are paying reparations means that the council definately did not approve of the Turians "policing".Praetor Shepard wrote...
Turians responded aggressively according to Council regulations on starting up relays, possibly because humanity was so close to activating Relay 314.
Are nukes even council prohibited? I can understand it from a planetary bombardment point of view which would lead to civilian casualties but for ship to ship weapons...why? Its not as if the are making space less habitable. Just seems the same as any other weapon.Praetor Shepard wrote...
Then the use of nukes in a protracted war is where it seems that humanity would have the greatest problem with diplomacy.
#62
Posté 25 novembre 2010 - 01:51
Malanek999 wrote...
Are nukes even council prohibited? I can understand it from a planetary bombardment point of view which would lead to civilian casualties but for ship to ship weapons...why? Its not as if the are making space less habitable. Just seems the same as any other weapon.
I thought the only restriction when it came to nukes iis that the council doesn't allow their use on "garden worlds."
#63
Posté 25 novembre 2010 - 02:04
Anyways, considering that we don't know the total population of humans and Turians, nor the number of systems under each faction's control, this whole thread is retarded.
#64
Posté 25 novembre 2010 - 02:07
http://social.biowar...13603/3#5315207
Nukes on Garden worlds.
Although the Turians overreacted, they are a Council species.
editing in link.
Modifié par Praetor Shepard, 25 novembre 2010 - 02:09 .
#65
Posté 25 novembre 2010 - 02:14
Not always. The Persian economy was massively greater than the Macedonian and allied greek economies and got obliterated due to logistics. The Russians faltered in Afghanistan, the US may well end up pulling out. The non-communists lost in Viet Nam. Athens generally lost to Sparta. I'm sure history is littered with other examples.rapier7 wrote...
If you read the codex entries, all three Council races (before the accession of humans to the Council) had economies "far larger" than the Systems Alliance. Far larger economies tend to crush far smaller ones. Just saying.
Anyways, considering that we don't know the total population of humans and Turians, nor the number of systems under each faction's control, this whole thread is retarded.
As I said before, the bigger economy is useless, and even a drawback, if you can't attack which in this case is because of the mass relay choke point.
#66
Posté 25 novembre 2010 - 02:26
Malanek999 wrote...
The Persian economy was massively greater than the Macedonian and allied greek economies and got obliterated due to logistics.
On this point regarding the Persians, what lost them the war was Xerxes sacking Athens, then having a conscripted "slave" army using wicker shields, light armor, mostly Archers and light cavalry.
The Greek Linothorax, strong wooden shields, bronze swords, sarissa, the phalanx formation, superior infantry discipline, Alexander the Great, and the superior Macedonian Heavy Cavalry is what made the difference.
I love ancient history and could go on and on...
#67
Posté 25 novembre 2010 - 02:39
At Issus Darius fielded 300000+ men. Immortals, masses of cavalry, peltests etc But logistics meant he couldn't manage such a mass and Alexander got to engage them on his choice of battlefield where not all (most?) of the persian troops could even engage. It was theoretically possible that Darius could have assembled an army of over one million for a single battle, but realistically logistics prvented this.Praetor Shepard wrote...
Malanek999 wrote...
The Persian economy was massively greater than the Macedonian and allied greek economies and got obliterated due to logistics.
On this point regarding the Persians, what lost them the war was Xerxes sacking Athens, then having a conscripted "slave" army using wicker shields, light armor, mostly Archers and light cavalry.
The Greek Linothorax, strong wooden shields, bronze swords, sarissa, the phalanx formation, superior infantry discipline, Alexander the Great, and the superior Macedonian Heavy Cavalry is what made the difference.
I love ancient history and could go on and on...but won't
#68
Posté 25 novembre 2010 - 02:40
#69
Posté 25 novembre 2010 - 02:47
Comparing Thermopylae to the idea of a Mass Relay choke point isn't a great comparison to make. Similar to what Praetor said above me in regards to Alexander's conquest, the effective use of the phalanx and superior weapons is what won the Spartans the opening day of that battle. The Turians are not some force attacking with wicker shields and short spears, they are going to be on your level or better when it comes to weapons and tactics.
#70
Posté 25 novembre 2010 - 02:47
Soahfreako wrote...
MrFob wrote...
It is stated somewhere (codex, Revelation, can't remember now) that when the asari intervened, the turians were about to start the real attack with their fleet. Everything that happened in "the war" was just some probing actions of the turians. The humans on the other hand had never even met another culture before. They were severely out-manned and outgunned. The only reason why humans have advanced technology at the time of ME1 is because they integrated very quickly with the other races and learned a lot of their technology. They may not have been completely defenseless during the first contact war but driving the turians out of Shanxi was a stroke of luck.
So no, we would have been crushed by the turians, probably too quickly to come up with something so sophisticated as biological weapons and the like (as suggested). Besides, if it really came that far (and it wouldn’t have), keep in mind that the turians are ruthless tacticians too who were not afraid to use biological weapons in the past themselves. They just wouldn’t have had any need.
You say that as if they were the ones that made said biological weapon.
Wow, you responded to the one part of my post that was just a minor addition not really corresponding to the main point.
But to answer, no they didn't make the genophage but the Turians were the ones to actually use it on the Krogan. The point is, they are ruthless when it comes to victory in war and they'd not hesitate to wipe us out if we'd pose a real threat.
If humans would have gone on a started to nuke garden worlds for example, it would only have been a matter of (very short) time until the council races would have decided that earth is not worth all the trouble. It's not like they have never acted like hippocrates before (and I ma not sure that in such a case I could blame them).
#71
Posté 25 novembre 2010 - 02:52
Malanek999 wrote...
At Issus Darius fielded 300000+ men. Immortals, masses of cavalry, peltests etc But logistics meant he couldn't manage such a mass and Alexander got to engage them on his choice of battlefield where not all (most?) of the persian troops could even engage. It was theoretically possible that Darius could have assembled an army of over one million for a single battle, but realistically logistics prvented this.Praetor Shepard wrote...
Malanek999 wrote...
The Persian economy was massively greater than the Macedonian and allied greek economies and got obliterated due to logistics.
On this point regarding the Persians, what lost them the war was Xerxes sacking Athens, then having a conscripted "slave" army using wicker shields, light armor, mostly Archers and light cavalry.
The Greek Linothorax, strong wooden shields, bronze swords, sarissa, the phalanx formation, superior infantry discipline, Alexander the Great, and the superior Macedonian Heavy Cavalry is what made the difference.
I love ancient history and could go on and on...but won't
Cliff Notes: Darius III was not a good strategist or popular leader and lead a conscripted army, then he fled.
http://en.wikipedia...._with_Alexander
http://en.wikipedia....Battle_of_Issus
The Turians by comparison are more professional and used different tactics in the First Contact War against humanity.
#72
Posté 25 novembre 2010 - 02:57
I'm not trying to equate the Turians to the Persians. That was just an example of how a force built from a much smaller economy could bring down a force built from a much larger economy. From what we know of the Turians, they have not exhibitted particularly good strategy. They lost the first contact war from a superior opening. Without help they would have lost against the rachni, they would have lost against the krogan and they would have lost against Saren and the Geth. The Turian counciler, presumably a suitably competent turian, is not the sharpest tool in the shed.Praetor Shepard wrote...
Malanek999 wrote...
At Issus Darius fielded 300000+ men. Immortals, masses of cavalry, peltests etc But logistics meant he couldn't manage such a mass and Alexander got to engage them on his choice of battlefield where not all (most?) of the persian troops could even engage. It was theoretically possible that Darius could have assembled an army of over one million for a single battle, but realistically logistics prvented this.Praetor Shepard wrote...
Malanek999 wrote...
The Persian economy was massively greater than the Macedonian and allied greek economies and got obliterated due to logistics.
On this point regarding the Persians, what lost them the war was Xerxes sacking Athens, then having a conscripted "slave" army using wicker shields, light armor, mostly Archers and light cavalry.
The Greek Linothorax, strong wooden shields, bronze swords, sarissa, the phalanx formation, superior infantry discipline, Alexander the Great, and the superior Macedonian Heavy Cavalry is what made the difference.
I love ancient history and could go on and on...but won't
Cliff Notes: Darius III was not a good strategist or popular leader and lead a conscripted army, then he fled.
http://en.wikipedia...._with_Alexander
http://en.wikipedia....Battle_of_Issus
The Turians by comparison are more professional and used different tactics in the First Contact War against humanity.
Modifié par Malanek999, 25 novembre 2010 - 03:00 .
#73
Posté 25 novembre 2010 - 03:19
Malanek999 wrote...
I'm not trying to equate the Turians to the Persians. That was just an example of how a force built from a much smaller economy could bring down a force built from a much larger economy. From what we know of the Turians, they have not exhibitted particularly good strategy. They lost the first contact war from a superior opening. Without help they would have lost against the rachni, they would have lost against the krogan and they would have lost against Saren and the Geth. The Turian counciler, presumably a suitably competent turian, is not the sharpest tool in the shed.
The Turians didn't really lose the First Contact war. They assumed that they had defeated the bulk of Humanitiy's forces at Shanxi and didn't leave much in way of defense. The Council stepped in after Humanity ran the Turians of Shanxi and stopped them from mobilizing their main fleet. Had the Council not stepped in, the Turians probably would have won.
The Rachni Wars are a moot point as first contact with the Turians had not been made at that point.
The Krogan Rebellions doesn't work well as an example as the Turians were the only Council species capable of fighting a conventional war. They actually began to push the Krogans back. Then the Krogans began to use tactics like Asteroid Warfare and the Turians unleashed the Genophage. Regardless of whether or not you agree with their actions, they won that war.
Turian strategy may not be great, but it's served them well so far. It's not like Humanity would have done any better.
#74
Posté 25 novembre 2010 - 03:22
Malanek999 wrote...
I'm not trying to equate the Turians to the Persians. That was just an example of how a force built from a much smaller economy could bring down a force built from a much larger economy. From what we know of the Turians, they have not exhibitted particularly good strategy. They lost the first contact war from a superior opening. Without help they would have lost against the rachni, they would have lost against the krogan and they would have lost against Saren and the Geth. The Turian counciler, presumably a suitably competent turian, is not the sharpest tool in the shed.Praetor Shepard wrote...
Malanek999 wrote...
At Issus Darius fielded 300000+ men. Immortals, masses of cavalry, peltests etc But logistics meant he couldn't manage such a mass and Alexander got to engage them on his choice of battlefield where not all (most?) of the persian troops could even engage. It was theoretically possible that Darius could have assembled an army of over one million for a single battle, but realistically logistics prvented this.Praetor Shepard wrote...
Malanek999 wrote...
The Persian economy was massively greater than the Macedonian and allied greek economies and got obliterated due to logistics.
On this point regarding the Persians, what lost them the war was Xerxes sacking Athens, then having a conscripted "slave" army using wicker shields, light armor, mostly Archers and light cavalry.
The Greek Linothorax, strong wooden shields, bronze swords, sarissa, the phalanx formation, superior infantry discipline, Alexander the Great, and the superior Macedonian Heavy Cavalry is what made the difference.
I love ancient history and could go on and on...but won't
Cliff Notes: Darius III was not a good strategist or popular leader and lead a conscripted army, then he fled.
http://en.wikipedia...._with_Alexander
http://en.wikipedia....Battle_of_Issus
The Turians by comparison are more professional and used different tactics in the First Contact War against humanity.
Well your other points are easier to relate to how economies of scale could have a negative impact on a larger faction fighting a people instead of an army.
But to stay on topic, the Relay 314 Incident, FCW, was at first a violent "police action" regarding regulations that humanity did not know about, that then escalated with Shanxi. I guess from there may to the victor go the spoils of war.
Either way this has been a great discussion.
#75
Posté 25 novembre 2010 - 03:24
Agreed. I think this has been the most interesting discussion in a long time.Praetor Shepard wrote...
Either way this has been a great discussion.





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