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Had it Not Been Stopped, Would Humanity Have Won the First Contact War?


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#76
Malanek

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NPH11 wrote...

Malanek999 wrote...

I'm not trying to equate the Turians to the Persians. That was just an example of how a force built from a much smaller economy could bring down a force built from a much larger economy. From what we know of the Turians, they have not exhibitted particularly good strategy. They lost the first contact war from a superior opening. Without help they would have lost against the rachni, they would have lost against the krogan and they would have lost against Saren and the Geth. The Turian counciler, presumably a suitably competent turian, is not the sharpest tool in the shed.


The Turians didn't really lose the First Contact war. They assumed that they had defeated the bulk of Humanitiy's forces at Shanxi and didn't leave much in way of defense. The Council stepped in after Humanity ran the Turians of Shanxi and stopped them from mobilizing their main fleet. Had the Council not stepped in, the Turians probably would have won.

The Rachni Wars are a moot point as first contact with the Turians had not been made at that point.

The Krogan Rebellions doesn't work well as an example as the Turians were the only Council species capable of fighting a conventional war. They actually began to push the Krogans back. Then the Krogans began to use tactics like Asteroid Warfare and the Turians unleashed the Genophage. Regardless of whether or not you agree with their actions, they won that war.

Turian strategy may not be great, but it's served them well so far. It's not like Humanity would have done any better.

I think they did lose the first contact war. They started with a surprise attack, had superior technology, gained a victory, then made a serious strategical error in judgment and lost everything they gained. All up they suffered more casualties and surrendered surprise.

Fair point about the Rachni war, I thought they were a council race by that time.

With the Krogan, the point was that the Turian military strategy failed and they relied on the Salarians to produce a technological answer. I am assuming the Krogan themselves had vastly inferior technology to the Turians but it didn't help them.

I just haven't seen any evidence to suggest that the Turians really are that good strategically.

#77
Bomb In My Pants

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I've noticed something that was briefly talked about: the mass relays themselves. If there ever is another war like the FCW, then the defeat of whoever looses will be because of the mass relays. What humanity needs to do is work on something like hyperdrive, or warp. The Mass Relays channel all forces down pre-determined routes. And if one side already knows where all the relays that the other side has access to are, then they know where to place their forces- cutting supplies, cutting off escape routes, and denying access. If one side had hyperdrive, then they could bypass all that. And while the enemy forces are tanged with the relays, you could get to any strategic location you wanted with little to no resistance.

Modifié par Bomb In My Pants, 27 novembre 2010 - 09:36 .


#78
Dean_the_Young

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And if a hyperdrive or equivalent remains impossible?


Mind you, nothing stops conventional FTL travel by armadas. And, indeed, from the relays themselves, that's just what happens.

Modifié par Dean_the_Young, 25 novembre 2010 - 04:10 .


#79
Elite Midget

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The Turians underestimated humans. However, if the war continued the Turians would have eventually won the war. They had a far larger fleet, were more experienced, had allies, and were used to Galactic Warfare. Hell, Humanity had no idea where the Turians lived, how to strike out against the Turians, nor did they have the resources to undertake such a large war.



Besides, the Turians would just end up Genophaging the humans.

#80
Dave of Canada

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Elite Midget wrote...

Besides, the Turians would just end up Genophaging the humans.


Genophage wouldn't have worked for humans, the Genophage was made for the rapidly expanding Krogan who bred like rabbits. The Genophage would be very counterproductive against the humans.

#81
Elite Midget

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The Genophage was already made before the Krogan were found. It was a determent that the Salarians had stashed around. When the Krogan rebelled the Salarians were forced to unleash their WMD.

#82
GodWood

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Despite having achieved space flight near 1500 years before hand, having the benefit of exposure to other species technology, having had more time to develop superior technology and having an entire society built around militarism humans would of won.

Why?

Because in the ME universe humans are special

#83
Katamariguy

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Zulu_DFA wrote...

Without doubt.

THIS IS SPARTA!!!


"Using morale-boosting battle-cries will secure our dominance in the galaxy; against the reapers and beyond."
                                                                                                                                                                         -TIM


Posted Image

#84
daedalus304

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Elite Midget wrote...

The Turians underestimated humans. However, if the war continued the Turians would have eventually won the war.
They had a far larger fleet, were more experienced, had allies, and were used to Galactic Warfare. Hell, Humanity had no idea where the Turians lived, how to strike out against the Turians, nor did they have the resources to undertake such a large war.

Besides, the Turians would just end up Genophaging the humans.

Posted ImagePosted Image

Sure, The Turians were more experienced and used to Galactic Warfare, but who said we would conform to the style of warfare they were used to? The turians fought like 18th century armies, march up to each other and fire, the largest group with the biggest guns win. Furthermore, Their most lauded combat accomplishements (Rachni and Krogan) would be nothing like a conflict with humanity. They combated Rachni numbers and force with Krogan, and Krogan numbers and force with a Salarian developed bioweapon to nulify those numbers. Humans would rely on creative tactics and weapons development. We adapt extremely quickly and extremely well, something that impresses and disturbs the galactic community up to the beginning of ME1. Also, We tend to make the greatest technological advancements in or for war. The longer war stretched between Humanity and the Turians is just more time for us to adapt and invent, reverse engineer and revamp. The Turians are discipline and command oriented, following proceedure and precident. I don't see them able to throw out a thousand years of combat tactics quickly enough to respond to novel human strategy and ingenuity.Now, when it comes to the genophage. Aside from the fact that getting council approval for deployment of a similar tactic on species without the rapid multiplication abilities of the Krogan would be extremely unlikely, think of the backlash in galactic opinion. The genophage combated an oncoming horde, a violent blight coming to take any planet or resource in its way, and hundreds of years later the council is still dealing with debate and dispute over the decision to use it. Deployment of such a weapon on humanity with its handful of colonies in a conflict that is strictly a Turian problem that Turians started is almost impossible to believe.

So humanity didn't know where the Turians lived, Turians didn't know where Earth was either. Besides, Humanity wouldn't just sit back and leave the front door wide open, knowing that a massive Turian assault would overwhelm defenses. It would be easier and most likely more effective to simply mine the area where Mass Relay traffic would enter the sol system. If a ship exits and doesn't give the proper code automatically these mines could remotely guide to the intruder and detonate en masse. I'm not an Alliance engineer and that took me a few seconds to think of. I'm sure the best and brightest of 2100's humanity could come up with revolutionary warfare tactics and weapons if needed, Just look at the development in weapons tech between 1940-1990 if you need an example.

The Turians also had much more territory to defend and look after than humanity did. Territory sharing borders with some very dangerous and opportunistic neighbors that probably would not have sat on their hands when the Council defensive perimeter started transfering military resources to a different area.



Sure there are variables you can't account for, Turians getting through Arcturus, Humans taking it too far and getting the other council races to join on the side of the Turians. But I feel that at the very least, if humanity couldn't fight to a truce or win, Turian victory would most likely be Pyrrhic

#85
GodWood

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daedalus304 wrote...
The turians fought like 18th century armies, march up to each other and fire, the largest group with the biggest guns win.

I don't believe the game ever says that.

#86
daedalus304

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GodWood wrote...

daedalus304 wrote...
The turians fought like 18th century armies, march up to each other and fire, the largest group with the biggest guns win.

I don't believe the game ever says that.

Posted ImagePosted Image

That is because it didn't, but that is my analysis of their basic strategic theme. Relying on technological and numerical superority. 

#87
GodWood

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Then I think your analysis is wrong.

#88
daedalus304

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Can you be a little more specific on why? This is for enjoyment and entertaining discussion after all.

#89
LorDC

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As I see people mostly use this arguments to prove that humanity would have won:

1) Unconventional/superior tactics.

First of all this not an argument. Not more than "wizard did it". Just baseless claim that humanity will win somehow. It also should be noted here that Turians are not a bunch of morons. They were galactic "muscles" for more than thousand years and thus have much more experience in space warfare.

2) Guerrilla warfare.

Will not work. Guerrilla war only works when your base of operations is hidden(notice how it happens that guerrillas are always hiding in jungles/forests/mountains). Which is obviously not true in FCW. Can't hide planet with 10 billions people on it.

3) War of attrition.

Is always won by side with larger economy(that's why it is called "attrition"). And Turians have much larger economy than Alliance. War of attrition wouldn't even be possible. When difference in fleets and economy is 5 times it just not gonna happen.

4) Logistic problems on turian side.

Turians had them at the beginning of the war for only one reason. Their "occupation force" was small patrol fleet. It was designated to return to base shortly not stay on orbit of hostile world. Of course that is going to cause logistic problem. But after turians done with their preparations to war? No way.

Also Mass Relay network allows instant travel. It is possible to go from one side of the galaxy to another in a few hours. So fleet operating on other side of the galaxy is not much different from it operating on your own territory.

And when you are able to win war with single strike(which Turians are surely capable of) logistics is not much of an issue.

#90
GodWood

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daedalus304 wrote...
Can you be a little more specific on why? This is for enjoyment and entertaining discussion after all.

After 2 paragraphs I realized I'm feeling particularly dislexic today. Posted Image
So I'll just link you to the turian military section of the wikia.
Might change your mind.

#91
AdamNW

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Not at all.

#92
AKOdin

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The Turians would have wiped the floor with humanity. See the Codex. Specifically ME1 Codex, the entry on the first contact war.

A Turian PATROL took over Shanxi, after chastising a Human Survey Fleet that was seen activating Mass Relays. The Turan PATROL was driven off of Shangxi by the Human's Second FLEET. Via a surprise attack. The Turians then began to mobilize for war, and the Codex entry says the Humans were FORTUNATE that the Council intervened and imposed a truce.

As a matter of common sense, Humanity discovered/began to use the Charon Relay (that is the one in Sol) in 2149. The war with the Turians (which the Turians refer to as an "incident") was in 2157. That is EIGHT years after leaving Sol via the relay. Humanity had yet to encounter another living species, and was focused on exploration.

Keep in mind that the Turians were the muscle for the Citadel Council- they had the largest Navy by treaty. They had 5 Dreadnaughts for every 3 the Assari and Salarians were allowed, and 5 for every one the other Citadel species were allowed (Treaty of Farixen). Per the Codex, at the start of ME1 (2180), the Turians had 37 DN. Humanity, despite initiating a military buildup after the First Contact War and the issues with the Batarians, had only managed to build 6.

The idea that Humanity would have won the war absent the peace imposed by the Citadel Council is absurd. Read the Codex.

Modifié par AKOdin, 25 novembre 2010 - 07:16 .


#93
daedalus304

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LorDC wrote...

As I see people mostly use this arguments to prove that humanity would have won:
1) Unconventional/superior tactics.
First of all this not an argument. Not more than "wizard did it". Just baseless claim that humanity will win somehow. It also should be noted here that Turians are not a bunch of morons. They were galactic "muscles" for more than thousand years and thus have much more experience in space warfare.

Posted ImagePosted Image

People use that arguement because its an established part of the game background, sharing space in the same codex as the Mass Relays and Citadel Council. This isn't about arguing whether Humanity would win a battle against a technologically superior unknown alien species. This is about Humans combating Turians, and in the universe where Humans and Turians exist, Humans are quick to adapt little ragamuffins while the Turians take so long planning long term conflicts that we can sneak up and kick them in the crotch.

#94
Dark_Caduceus

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The turians would have curb stomped and rolled over any human opposition if the incident escalated into total war, there's no way, no matter how adaptable and "unconventional" humans are, that they could win against the premiere military force of Council space having just been introduced to Mass Effect technology.

#95
daedalus304

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AKOdin wrote...

The Turians would have wiped the floor with humanity. See the Codex. Specifically ME1 Codex, the entry on the first contact war.

A Turian PATROL took over Shanxi, after chastising a Human Survey Fleet that was seen activating Mass Relays. The Turan PATROL was driven off of Shangxi by the Human's Second FLEET. Via a surprise attack. The Turians then began to mobilize for war, and the Codex entry says the Humans were FORTUNATE that the Council intervened and imposed a truce.

As a matter of common sense, Humanity discovered/began to use the Charon Relay (that is the one in Sol) in 2149. The war with the Turians (which the Turians refer to as an "incident") was in 2157. That is EIGHT years after leaving Sol via the relay. Humanity had yet to encounter another living species, and was focused on exploration.

Keep in mind that the Turians were the muscle for the Citadel Council- they had the largest Navy by treaty. They had 5 Dreadnaughts for every 3 the Assari and Salarians were allowed, and 5 for every one the other Citadel species were allowed (Treaty of Farixen). Per the Codex, at the start of ME1 (2180), the Turians had 37 DN. Humanity, despite initiating a military buildup after the First Contact War and the issues with the Batarians, had only managed to build 6.

The idea that Humanity would have won the war absent the peace imposed by the Citadel Council is absurd. Read the Codex.


Posted ImagePosted Image

Keep reading your codex and find that until the FCW, Turians were considered militarily unbeatable, and that while "other species had entered the area of Council governance since the turian arrival, none except humans had proved equal in both civilization and military might"

#96
vinak

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The war would probably end in peace treaty regardless.

The Turians cannot commit 100% of there fleet. so there 5:1 fleet size is irrelevant. Their border size is a burden during all out war. We need to equate the Turians more to the Roman Empire in this case. With humanity being Barbarians. (or perhaps the Brits and American revolutionaries logistically) 

We cannot assume humanity is completely ignorant to galactic warfare. "We" are trying to establish colonies and explore space at this time. Given the fact "we've" built warships at this time suggests the inclusion of military tactics in space environments.

Given the albeit brief history of combat between the two species, the fighting would most likely have been drawn out and bloody with both sides fully committing their forces. prompting both sides to seek peace independently if the council decided to remain neutral.

A peace treaty is going to be more beneficial to Turians, and more so for humanity in the long run. Humans are completely ignorant to galactic society...being opportunistic as we are...peace would have been much more beneficial to us technologically, politically and economically. For the Turians, they get to save face politically for starting the war in the first place.

Modifié par vinak, 25 novembre 2010 - 07:42 .


#97
AKOdin

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@daedalus304
... It's not my codex, its Bioware's. Ya know, the creators of the setting. Which entry do you suggest I read, that will be relevant to the time of first contact?

Modifié par AKOdin, 25 novembre 2010 - 07:35 .


#98
daedalus304

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Well, I have a copy as well, and when I said your, it was meant in the sense of your copy. So look under the section of the First Contact War, where you got your comment about the diplomatic solution being fortunate for humanity and keep reading to the end of said FCW section. Don't be so snarky.

Should be the top of page 9 in the codex book.Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Modifié par daedalus304, 25 novembre 2010 - 07:41 .


#99
LorDC

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daedalus304 wrote...
People use that arguement because its an established part of the game background, sharing space in the same codex as the Mass Relays and Citadel Council. This isn't about arguing whether Humanity would win a battle against a technologically superior unknown alien species. This is about Humans combating Turians, and in the universe where Humans and Turians exist, Humans are quick to adapt little ragamuffins while the Turians take so long planning long term conflicts that we can sneak up and kick them in the crotch.

I can accept "humans are better tacticians than turians" fact but it does not automatically translate into "humans win".
Also while turian military doctrine is surely straightforward and relays on massive strikes nowhere is said that they are slow. Occupation of Shanxi surely proves opposite. Turain strategy also happens to be best course of action in FCW. Surely humanity can kick turians in crotch when turians stand up(and they will stand up) they will just smack humans into the ground.

#100
FuturePasTimeCE

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[quote]Katamariguy wrote...

[quote]Zulu_DFA wrote...

Without doubt.

THIS IS SPARTA!!![/quote]

"Using morale-boosting battle-cries will secure our dominance in the galaxy; against the reapers and beyond."
                                                                                                                                                                         -TIM


I actually laughed out loud:lol::lol::lol::happy:

Modifié par FuturePasTimeCE, 25 novembre 2010 - 07:53 .