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Had it Not Been Stopped, Would Humanity Have Won the First Contact War?


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#126
Raizo

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General User wrote...

Ah, yes. “Humans.” The race of bipedal primates allegedly waiting beyond Relay 314. We have dismissed that claim.
 
This is a topic that I believe to be deserving of its own thread.
 
Humanity stood a decent shot of winning outright the First Contact War, had it gone on, and a very good shot of inflicting such losses on the turians to force them to sue for peace. 
 
In addition to humanity’s penchant of innovative tactics, which Zulu_DFA  so very rightly pointed out in another thread, humanity and the Alliance obviously had not signed on to any of the Citadel Conventions at the time of the War of Turian Aggression; so innovative technologies such as AI, which (as EDI has shown us can be a decisive advantage) would be very much on the table.
 
Humanity, as the victims of outside aggression, would enjoy the advantage of an interior position for the entirety of the war. In other words, the turians would have had to take and hold human possessions, but our side could limit the aims of any offensives to raids and taking relays, instead of entire planets or star systems.
 
And if the turians did reach out to their fellow Council races for aid, would they help? The turians were forced to pay reparations to humans for the war; that strongly implies they were also forced to accept some sort of war guilt clause. It sure wasn’t humanity that forced them to accept either of those things, so it must have been the asari and/or the salarians. Would they really be willing to send soldiers to die to support the turians in a war they obviously opposed, at least on some level?
 
Besides, how long would the war go on before humanity started discovering, and reaching out to the races the Council has wronged over the years, namely the krogan and the quarians?
 
Ships with quarian crews, ground armies with krogan troops, and humans setting the strategy and tactics. Sounds like a Council-crushing force to me.


I'm not sure where you are getting your info but there is no doubt in my mind that the Turians would have crushed the Human race if the Council had not stepped in and intervened. The Turians were a hell of alot more advanced then the humans were at that point in time ( although humanity has advanced quite rapidly since the first contact war, they have learned much from thier Alien 'alies' during that time, it's what will eventually make humanity the strongest race, the human ability to apapt but we are talking about the past, not the future ). The Turian's have the biggest fleet in Council, why do you think they were invited to join the council, because of thier military strength, can you imagine how many ships they might have had back then have comapared to how many Humanity had during the first contact war.

#127
Dean_the_Young

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Numbers alone is a poor substitute for power projection, and that goes for ships as well. You need far mroe than that. There are a number of aspects that start to mitigate Turian numerical superiority, starting with Alliance doctrine (hit/run, don't stay for a stick-up fight you can't win) to the problem of the Turians being able to force a decisive battle in which to bring their numbers to bear in the first place.



It's not like the Turians know what's beyond the Alliance-used relays, or where all the human colonies and what not are. They thought Shaxni was the human homeworld, for heaven's sake. Without knowing where to go to force a fight, the Turians can never bring their numbers to bear, whereas getting there in the first place remains a challenge (defenses near the relay checkpoints, Alliance attacks at the logistic chains).


#128
LorDC

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Dean_the_Young wrote...
t's not like the Turians know what's beyond the Alliance-used relays, or where all the human colonies and what not are. They thought Shaxni was the human homeworld, for heaven's sake. Without knowing where to go to force a fight, the Turians can never bring their numbers to bear, whereas getting there in the first place remains a challenge (defenses near the relay checkpoints, Alliance attacks at the logistic chains).

I don't think that Turians could have mistaken Shanxi for human homeworld. Shanxi was less than 7 year old colony. I don't believe it is possible to mistake it for homeworld of space faring race.
Not knowing what is beyond Alliance-used relays is not a big problem. Alliance space is much smaller than council Space or Turian space alone. It actually would be harder for Alliance to scout Turian Space than vice versa. And don't forget that Turians occupied Shanxi. Some interrogations or a bit of torture and Turians know all basic things they need to know. Even civilian would be able to give information like where Ssol system is, what relays are used, how many colonies humanity has.

Modifié par LorDC, 25 novembre 2010 - 08:09 .


#129
Dean_the_Young

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The Turians apparently did, though. It certainly wouldn't have lasted long, but at the time they were surprised there was an Alliance fleet to reinforce.



Saying Alliance space is smaller than Council space doesn't mean anything when Council space is so very, very big, and still largely unexplored. Unless you know where you're going ahead of time, it's still incredibly easy to lose something in space, even in the ME universe. Without maps to tell you where, knowing that something exists isn't good enough.





Turians occupied Shaxni, but then the Turians also lost Shaxni. I'm not a big fan of pulling 'to make a literary story', but a Halo-esque Cole Protocol would be a relevant, excusable safeguard: say that while Shaxni had mentions of more Human territory and Earth, it was distinctly lacking of the 'where'. Civilians can hardly say 'oh, Sol is two-point-seven lightyears that way to This relay, take a left, Charon is the next star system in the Exodus Cluster.' Just looking at the cluster map for any given cluster, and there are countless stars that could be hiding things. Anything more dangerous than that was deleted by General Williams during the invasion, etc. etc. Hell, if you wanted to throw in continuity with the universe, the Pinnacle Station mission based off the First Contact War about recovering data was the Alliance mission to do just that.



Old story, and First Contact Continued would be just another branch of story.

#130
Legbiter

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No. Superior tactics would work once, maybe twice, before the turians adjust accordingly. Then it would just be a matter of logistics. That's a contest that the humans at the time would lose. Badly.

#131
General User

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Remember Saratoga, sometimes one victory is enough.

#132
LorDC

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Dean_the_Young wrote...
Saying Alliance space is smaller than Council space doesn't mean anything when Council space is so very, very big, and still largely unexplored. Unless you know where you're going ahead of time, it's still incredibly easy to lose something in space, even in the ME universe. Without maps to tell you where, knowing that something exists isn't good enough.

Same applies to Alliance. How it is possible to make any strike on supply lines when you don't know where they are?

Dean_the_Young wrote...
Turians occupied Shaxni, but then the Turians also lost Shaxni. I'm not a big fan of pulling 'to make a literary story', but a Halo-esque Cole Protocol would be a relevant, excusable safeguard: say that while Shaxni had mentions of more Human territory and Earth, it was distinctly lacking of the 'where'. Civilians can hardly say 'oh, Sol is two-point-seven lightyears that way to This relay, take a left, Charon is the next star system in the Exodus Cluster.' Just looking at the cluster map for any given cluster, and there are countless stars that could be hiding things. Anything more dangerous than that was deleted by General Williams during the invasion, etc. etc. Hell, if you wanted to throw in continuity with the universe, the Pinnacle Station mission based off the First Contact War about recovering data was the Alliance mission to do just that.

I seriously doubt that space geography was banned at the time of FCW. Even if it is true it is not a big deal. Position of Earth could be easily derivated from things like number of relays passed, time in flight between jumps, color of the stars in systems passed.

#133
Soahfreako

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And people STILL think humans would've won. This has become the thread I go to when I want to laugh.

#134
Dean_the_Young

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LorDC wrote...

Same applies to Alliance. How it is possible to make any strike on supply lines when you don't know where they are?

The Turians would have to set up supply lines in Alliance-explored space in order to simply explore Alliance explored space.

I seriously doubt that space geography was banned at the time of FCW.

Space geography is a misnomer, since space isn't flat and the mass relay network isn't continuous. Space is simply too big to expect everyone to know where individual systems are. You could point out the entire local cluster on a star chart and still have a life time of systems to be explored.


Even if it is true it is not a big deal. Position of Earth could be easily derivated from things like number of relays passed, time in flight between jumps, color of the stars in systems passed.because

How does any of that provide a timely derivation of Earth's position?

Space is big. Really, really big, and in the ME universe really, really cluttered. And terraforming/colonization bio-spheres mean that even non-suitable-looking planets from planet light are potential strongholds.

Modifié par Dean_the_Young, 25 novembre 2010 - 10:21 .


#135
Jedi Master of Orion

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Could they have won the war? Of course not.



Turian culture is entirely based around their military. They are far more dedicated to warfare than human it is. They fought the an enemy as savage as the Krogan to a standstill. There is no way I can imagine that human military which was still fairly small and primitive by comparison could do any thing that the Krogan hordes trying to conquer the galaxy couldn't.

#136
Dean_the_Young

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Soahfreako wrote...

And people STILL think humans would've won. This has become the thread I go to when I want to laugh.

If it remained simply Humanity vs. Turians I have no doubt the Turians would have eventually won if they kept it in, but to imply it would have been a cakewalk and quick is pretty weak as well. To argue that the Turians would have infinite will for this sort of venture is another assumption that needs to be supported and maintained.


The other part of the equation, however, is how long it would have been simply Humanity vs. the Turians. The longer it goes, the worse it gets politically: the Terminus is always suspicious of Council action. There was already musings in ME1 that a large part of Humanity's ascent was fear/suspicion by the Asari and Salarians over the Turians. Sovereign and his Geth could see an advantage to take, if this goes long enough.

#137
Soahfreako

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Dean_the_Young wrote...

Soahfreako wrote...

And people STILL think humans would've won. This has become the thread I go to when I want to laugh.

If it remained simply Humanity vs. Turians I have no doubt the Turians would have eventually won if they kept it in, but to imply it would have been a cakewalk and quick is pretty weak as well. To argue that the Turians would have infinite will for this sort of venture is another assumption that needs to be supported and maintained.


The other part of the equation, however, is how long it would have been simply Humanity vs. the Turians. The longer it goes, the worse it gets politically: the Terminus is always suspicious of Council action. There was already musings in ME1 that a large part of Humanity's ascent was fear/suspicion by the Asari and Salarians over the Turians. Sovereign and his Geth could see an advantage to take, if this goes long enough.



I have never doubted for a second that humanity would've lost. the REAL variable is how it would've taken, which is what should be debated. Bravo sir. You seem to be one of the view who knows what they're talking about.

#138
Dean_the_Young

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But no comment on Geth/Sovereign coming in as the mysterious benefactors for the unexpectadly tenacious humanity?



Well, I liked that idea at least...

#139
General User

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Dean_the_Young wrote...

Soahfreako wrote...

And people STILL think humans would've won. This has become the thread I go to when I want to laugh.

If it remained simply Humanity vs. Turians I have no doubt the Turians would have eventually won if they kept it in, but to imply it would have been a cakewalk and quick is pretty weak as well. To argue that the Turians would have infinite will for this sort of venture is another assumption that needs to be supported and maintained.


The other part of the equation, however, is how long it would have been simply Humanity vs. the Turians. The longer it goes, the worse it gets politically: the Terminus is always suspicious of Council action. There was already musings in ME1 that a large part of Humanity's ascent was fear/suspicion by the Asari and Salarians over the Turians. Sovereign and his Geth could see an advantage to take, if this goes long enough.



Exactly, and if it gets bad enough politically for the turians, to the point that other galactic powers begin actively aiding or siding with humanity, human (or at that point “Allied”) victory over the turians becomes not only possible, but likely.

#140
Arijharn

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Now THAT is an interesting point! The Reapers have plans for humanity, they may have intervened (probably behind the scenes) to give humanity the means to at least survive.


Um, no it isn't. The Reapers only became interested in humanity after Shephard destroyed Sovereign, not beforehand.

The technological advances given by the Prothean data cache on Mars gave humanity comparable technology to the rest of the galaxy... although that implies either that the galaxy was either really stagnant prior to our arrival, or our data cache was a lot more advanced than what we've been led to believe.

The Systems Alliance, in my opinion, would be able to fight really hard, but if the Turian's discovered the location of Earth, we would lose. As it is; they believed that at the time Shanxi was probably our homeworld (although, you'd think that if Shanxi lacked orbital shipyards that would probably be enough to dissuade the Turian's of that belief).

Changing the subject slightly; does anyone else think that the nebulous claim of the Turian's suffering slightly more casualties in the First Contact War to be completely bogus? My pet belief is that despite the fact that there was no badass Commander Shephard on the scenes who was practically the walking incarnation of Death (maybe his dad was performing that role?) the context of the human success, the fact that the Council practically tripped over themselves with haste to mediate the conflict implies to me that the Turian losses was probably far higher than the official statements. This could never be confirmed by standard media due to Turian beliefs about their war dead and in the brokered peace deal (which was in the favor of humanity) the Alliance agreed to the stipulations not to release their findings on Turian casualties for some pay off, probably including whatever reparations the Hierarchy makes.

#141
General User

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Well… if we’re accepting that the goal of the Reapers “harvests” are to find races suitable for the dubious “honor” being transformed into a Reaper, then it raises the question of where and how they make those decisions. 
 
Harbinger seemed to have very detailed opinions on the “worthiness” of the various races represented on Shepard’s squad. Did he reach all those conclusions on his own? Quite likely. It is also likely Sovereign, in his capacity as “vanguard” did a little prep-work.
 
On the slightly off topic, topic: Commander Shepard may have been barely out of diapers at the time of the WTA but, as has been noted, a young Alliance officer by the name of Steven Hackett, was very much in his prime…

Modifié par General User, 26 novembre 2010 - 04:36 .


#142
Malanek

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You need an option for a stalemate.

#143
General User

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Very true... standby for editing, thank you.

BETTER POLL NOW UP! Posted Image


My sincere apologies for any inconvenience.

Modifié par General User, 26 novembre 2010 - 04:25 .


#144
OmegaXI

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Well one thing that people need to realize about the turians is that they may of had a largery fleet but they had alot more of their own territory to protect. If they would of pulled ships from their protected territory to fight the humans then what would stop slave raids from effecting them? Pretty much they would have been robbing peter to pay paul. They had alot of of territory to protect and they had a military presence in the krogan DMZ. So the more ships they send to fight humanity the less ships they have to protect their empire. So could the turrian fight humanity who may of started to go into full mobilization which humanity has not done just yet, while also keeping the krogan in place, while also protecting their colonies and empire from slave raids once their fleet was gone fighting the humans, and fullfiling their coucil duties as peace keepers? And the turrians arn't as unified as people think, so with all these factors I feel that would have ended in a stalemate.

#145
Gibb_Shepard

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Humanity would have had their asses handed to them.

#146
slingblade2010

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Basically, the thing about humanity that scares the other alien races is how
humans approach war: Humans are very, very good when it comes to
adaptation and improvising in the heat of battle, which makes them
unpredictable as well. Humans are considered a sleeping giant mainly
because their military is volunteer-only and represents only a small fraction of
the total human population.


Also entirely different military tactics. The backstory claims Humans pretty
much introduced the concept of a carrier to the galaxy. Also, most of the other
species station a few ships at each inhabited planet to try and protect them
all. The backstory says Humanity leaves a Large number of ships at a central
place a few hours from all of the planets they control. You want to take our
unprotected planet? Good luck keeping it, there'll be dozens of battleships
there tomorrow!


While humanity did gain some victories against the turians, this resulted in
them taking us very seriously, and were more or less on the edge of
kicking humanity in the balls when the Citadel Council stepped in and put an end
to the war.



That's said to be common turian strategy. Turians make sure they never have
to fight the same enemy twice by making sure they'll take hundreds of years to
recover. Also, the turians weren't the only ones who hadn't "fought serious" up
until the Council stepped in - the turians mostly fought against scouts and
patrols, and one single colony. Both sides were about to get serious when the
Council stepped in. It's implied humanity would have lost, but it would have
been a very messy win.

Then there's Zaeed, the galaxy's very best Bounty Hunter. Claims to fame involve
taking down starships, regularly surviving impossible suicide missions, killing
krogan bare-handed and surviving being shot in the face. Through sheer
rage.


"We poison our air and water! We set off fission bombs
in our only biosphere! We nailed our God to a
stick! Don't **** with
the human race!
"

#147
vkt62

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In actuality during the battle of Thermopylae, there were 7000 men for the first 2 days and 300 of them stayed to defend the pass while the rest went back to defend Sparta on the third day (And yes the persians lost a lot of people during that time):

http://en.wikipedia...._of_Thermopylae



And the FCW would be like the humans vs the covenant in Halo. With the Turian fleet, Salarian first special ops and strike tactics and the Asari commandos, we wouldn't have made it too far before finding ourselves fighting in orbit around Earth. The human fleet was also not very big at that time and only survived since the war ended before the big guns were brought in (Dreadnoughts and don't think the humans had any at that time)

#148
Soahfreako

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vkt62 wrote...

In actuality during the battle of Thermopylae, there were 7000 men for the first 2 days and 300 of them stayed to defend the pass while the rest went back to defend Sparta on the third day (And yes the persians lost a lot of people during that time):
http://en.wikipedia...._of_Thermopylae

And the FCW would be like the humans vs the covenant in Halo. With the Turian fleet, Salarian first special ops and strike tactics and the Asari commandos, we wouldn't have made it too far before finding ourselves fighting in orbit around Earth. The human fleet was also not very big at that time and only survived since the war ended before the big guns were brought in (Dreadnoughts and don't think the humans had any at that time)

Halo is the WORST example to use here. Humans lose every planet they ever inhabited, with the sole exception of earth, and even then that could almost be considered lost. Also I'm tired of people bringing in HUMAN history into this. Humans vs humans is one thing. Humans vs aliens is completely different. You DON'T know how they think, You DON'T know their tendencies. I grow weary of arguing the same point over and over again.

#149
Randy1012

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The asari and salarians stopped the war because the turians were getting ready to unleash their full military might on the humans. Anyone here seen Babylon 5: In the Beginning? A full-scale war between turians and humanity at that point in the Alliance's evolution would have gone pretty much how the Earth-Minbari War went. That is to say: not very well for the humans. By the time it would have been over, Earth probably would have resembled Tuchanka in terms of devastation.

#150
CPT Eightball

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def. not... At that time humans were still far too 'under-advanced' to fight against a race that had been traveling in space longer than most humans, and their grandparents, have been alive.