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Anora's Gambit for the throne


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#126
IanPolaris

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KnightofPhoenix wrote...

IanPolaris wrote...
Again, why wait?


Go ask the writers.
Fact is, she does, and it's either for a reason in-game or ****ty writing.


I'm sorry but my warden is not in a position to ask the writers.  Give me a good, logical, and reasonable IN GAME reason why I should think Ser Cauthrien would do anything other than summarily execute me if I surrender.

I can't think of any.

-Polaris

#127
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IanPolaris wrote...

Glaucon wrote...

My HN spends the whole story waiting to kill Howe. Heck it's her Origin. What Erlina has to do with anything I really can't imagine, unless I should literally shoot the messenger instead?

LeM is not a proof it is an axiom.


Facts not in evidence.  Wanting someone dead (stand in line, lots of people want Howe dead) is not proof and it's not enough grounds for Ser Cauthrien to show up with that charge.

Just because you are in Howe's estate (even with bloody hands) doesn't mean you've killed Howe even if you wanted to.  Thus the charge should be (setting aside the timing for just a moment) "Attempted Murder" not murder....unless Anora ratted you out (which she did).

You seem unable to accept that the only way even for a HN for Ser Cauthrien to be where she is, when she is, with the specific information she has is for Anora to betray you.  That's poor logic and blindness on your part.  Sorry but it is.

-Polaris


I chose HN specifically because an HN is the most likely to kill Howe.  I also pointed out that both Loghain and Cauthrien are aware of your desire for revenge and this makes Cauthrien's ability to jump to the conclusion that Howe is dead plausible.  So there I have given you an instance that explains Cauthriens words.

How, exactly, do you believe that Anora managed to both know that Howe is dead and get word out to a waiting party?  All Anora knows is that you have dealt with the mage who sealed the door.  Admittedly she knew Howe was with that mage but she can't know that you killed Howe either.  You open her sell door turn right and then the encounter happens.  The door is locked magically and mechanically to my understanding.

#128
Wulfram

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Eamon doesn't "deputise" the warden if Loghain is spared.

#129
Skadi_the_Evil_Elf

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KnightofPhoenix wrote...

In a "legal" execution. Otherwise, I see no point at all for Cauthrien not to kill you when she had the chance. Makes no sense whatsoever and the only explanation I can thinlk of is that Loghain would rather not murder you without some semblance of legality (even if it might be legal to just kill you there anyways).

In reality, it's just an excuse to have the breakout quest.



Could be that a public "legal" execution would be more useful. You not only get rid of your main rival, do so publically to make an example, as well as quell the hopes of possible Warden sympathizers. Plus, it also publically drives home the point that Eamon no longer has a leg to stand on.

@Ian Polaris: Your Warden is NOT Eamon's deputy, nor are you there on his behalf. If that were the case, the minute you choose Anora over Alistair he'd override you, since all his hopes and policy are pinned on Alistair being made king. Yet you can make this choice, and not a peep from him if you make Anora sole queen.

Eamon is hardly the most powerful noble left. he's influential, yes. But If he were that powerful on his, he wouldn't need the Warden. Or Alistair. He needs the Warden. Otherwise, without the Warden....exactly how much influence over the Landsmeet would he have? None.

he doesn't even want to proceed to call the Landsmeet without the Warden's blessing. He knows the Warden has power and is capable, and that if he has any hope of deposing Loghain, he is going to have to throw his lot in with the Warden, and hope the Warden sees things his way and does what he thinks is correct in terms of resolving the situation.

#130
KnightofPhoenix

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IanPolaris wrote...
So effectively then you do have the power of your army and Eamon knows it, but you still only have those legal rights in the Landsmeet that Eamon gives you, and every noble knows it.


You can completely outmaveuvre him and execute the Last Therin and he remains silent, because he can't do anything (and if he really defers to you, he can always retract the power he gave you and try to defend the line he holds sacred, but he doesn't because he can't, he never gave you any legal power). That to me shows that other than calling the Landsmeet, Eamon has no real power, and both Anora and Loghain know this. Legality is irrelevent, it was all based on informal power.

And now I gtg. Cheers.

Modifié par KnightofPhoenix, 21 décembre 2010 - 06:17 .


#131
Skadi_the_Evil_Elf

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IanPolaris wrote...



Sure he does, but Eamon knows that nobles that oppose Grey Wardens during the blight often wind up about 8-12 inches shorter.  The Grey Wardens if you speak with Riorden weren't messing around.  They were getting ready to depose Anora and Loghain themselves because they were interfering with their ability to handle the blight and as you tell Levi Dryden, "The Blight Changes Everyone."

So effectively then you do have the power of your army and Eamon knows it, but you still only have those legal rights in the Landsmeet that Eamon gives you, and every noble knows it.


What Riordan tells you is that he was set to investigate what was happening in Ferelden, to see if there was some way the Wardens could make an emergency intervention feasibly. Failing that, they would have left Ferelden to the Blight and rallied their forces elsewhere, ready to fight it once it spread beyond Ferelden's borders, or go into ferelden once the leadership was dead or deposed as a result.

#132
IanPolaris

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Skadi_the_Evil_Elf wrote...

IanPolaris wrote...



Sure he does, but Eamon knows that nobles that oppose Grey Wardens during the blight often wind up about 8-12 inches shorter.  The Grey Wardens if you speak with Riorden weren't messing around.  They were getting ready to depose Anora and Loghain themselves because they were interfering with their ability to handle the blight and as you tell Levi Dryden, "The Blight Changes Everyone."

So effectively then you do have the power of your army and Eamon knows it, but you still only have those legal rights in the Landsmeet that Eamon gives you, and every noble knows it.


What Riordan tells you is that he was set to investigate what was happening in Ferelden, to see if there was some way the Wardens could make an emergency intervention feasibly. Failing that, they would have left Ferelden to the Blight and rallied their forces elsewhere, ready to fight it once it spread beyond Ferelden's borders, or go into ferelden once the leadership was dead or deposed as a result.


Redo that conversation.  Riorden also tells you that the Wardens were doing and planning everything they could not just to fight the blight but to OPPOSE this regime (and that means Anora).  Riorden volunteers since he's a native Fereldan.  It's in the files.

-Polaris

#133
IanPolaris

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KnightofPhoenix wrote...

IanPolaris wrote...
So effectively then you do have the power of your army and Eamon knows it, but you still only have those legal rights in the Landsmeet that Eamon gives you, and every noble knows it.


You can completely outmaveuvre him and execute the Last Therin and he remains silent, because he can't do anything (and if he really defers to you, he can always retract the power he gave you and try to defend the line he holds sacred, but he doesn't because he can't, he never gave you any legal power). That to me shows that other than calling the Landsmeet, Eamon has no real power, and both Anora and Loghain know this. Legality is irrelevent, it was all based on informal power.

And now I gtg. Cheers.


Sure you can because you have an army sitting in his back porch that radically outnumbers his own forces.  Also Eamon quite publically backed your rights as warden to fight the blight.  Eamon can't go back on that without ruining his own reputation which honestly means more to him than the Therin bloodline.

That said it's EAMON who dictatest that you decide which means you *are* acting as Eamon's deputy.  Just becaues he doesn't interfere when you choose something he doesn't like doesn't mean he can't.  It means he doesn't want to (and for very good reasons).

-Polaris

#134
IanPolaris

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Wulfram wrote...

Eamon doesn't "deputise" the warden if Loghain is spared.


Yes he does.  It's Eamon that directs you to make the choice.  By definition that means you are acting on his behalf with the consent of the rest of the Landsmeet and yes, Eamon (after Loghain is taken care of one way or the other) is easily the most powerful noble left since unlike most, his lands aren't blighted and his forces escaped both the civil war and Ostagar.

However, Eamon knows that going against the warden is quick suicide so he doesn't but it doesn't change the legal fact in the Landsmeet that you do in fact act as his deputy.

-Polaris

#135
IanPolaris

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Glaucon wrote...

I chose HN specifically because an HN is the most likely to kill Howe.  I also pointed out that both Loghain and Cauthrien are aware of your desire for revenge and this makes Cauthrien's ability to jump to the conclusion that Howe is dead plausible.  So there I have given you an instance that explains Cauthriens words.


No you haven't.  You haven't even come close.  Ser Cauthrien doesn't arrest you for attempted murder, or for assault any of which (from her PoV) are prefectly valid charges in themselves and more than sufficient reason to take you in custody on pain of death.

No.  She specifically charges you with the MURDER (not attempted murder but MURDER) of Arl Howe and there is no way she has that information without Anora betraying you.  You don't make a charge on a guess and an inference especially when you don't have to. 

Consider:  If Anora didn't betray you in this case, it's quite possible that you didn't kill Howe and perhaps found some other way to break open that door.  Yes, we know that it's impossible, but that's information Ser Cauthien can not have unless Anora tells her.  It would be embarrassing in the extreme to publically try the Warden for Murder just to have Arl Eamon show up with a gravely wounded but alive Arl Howe....and completely undercut Loghain in the process.  No.  Ser Cauthrien KNOWS you killed Arl Howe.  Not guess.  KNOW.

There is only one way she can:  Anora betrays you.  Why can't you admit the facts of the matter on this?

How, exactly, do you believe that Anora managed to both know that Howe is dead and get word out to a waiting party?  All Anora knows is that you have dealt with the mage who sealed the door.  Admittedly she knew Howe was with that mage but she can't know that you killed Howe either.  You open her sell door turn right and then the encounter happens.  The door is locked magically and mechanically to my understanding.


The mage was part of Howe's bodyguard detail.  Anora knows that perfectly well.  Thus she knows that when the door goes down, Howe is dead.....which makes sense since she set this up to begin with with just such an outcome in mind.  [If the mage in proximiity to Howe is dead, then Howe will be dead as well.]

-Polaris

#136
IanPolaris

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[double post]

Modifié par IanPolaris, 21 décembre 2010 - 08:02 .


#137
IanPolaris

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Skadi_the_Evil_Elf wrote...

Could be that a public "legal" execution would be more useful. You not only get rid of your main rival, do so publically to make an example, as well as quell the hopes of possible Warden sympathizers. Plus, it also publically drives home the point that Eamon no longer has a leg to stand on.


I don't buy that and neither should you.  In any case, there is no reasonable reason for the warden to believe (and that is the issue here) that his or her life would be spared long enough for a public trial and execution.  Why?  Frankly given that Loghain has already tried to kill you at least twice already it's simply stupid.  The Acting Warden Commander of Fereldan is a very, very dangerous person who has a way of routinely getting out of horribly bad situations.  Indeed (in Ankarrak) King Bhelem comments to Lord Dace that if anyone can do an impossible mission, it's the warden.

Given that, not executing the warden immediately is simply stupid and Loghain and Ser Cauthrien are not stupid in this way (esp given that Loghain green lighted the Crow assassination attempt to begin with!)

-Polaris

#138
Wulfram

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IanPolaris wrote...

Wulfram wrote...

Eamon doesn't "deputise" the warden if Loghain is spared.


Yes he does.  It's Eamon that directs you to make the choice.


No, he doesn't.  Eamon doesn't speak after the duel if you choose to spare Loghain.

edit: not until after you pick Alistair, anyway

Modifié par Wulfram, 21 décembre 2010 - 08:12 .


#139
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Whether they are facts is the entire point is it not? Yet you still fail to explain how Anora managed to get the correct information to Cauthrien?

I'm willing to accept any evidence but you just keep throwing supposition at me --and I throw it right back because it's all we have. I'm willing to accept many arguments as to why Cauthrien knew what she did including the fact that it was just a **** up in writing.

But for it to be solely the cause of a conspiracy by Anora is stretching my imagination. It is so elaborate, it involves great risk to Anora and isn't guaranteed a success. You seem to like your logic so try applying Occam's razor to the plan that you feel Anora constructed.

ETA
My point about Occam is: explanatory power.  Not simplicity.

Modifié par Glaucon, 21 décembre 2010 - 08:25 .


#140
Skadi_the_Evil_Elf

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IanPolaris wrote...

Redo that conversation.  Riorden also tells you that the Wardens were doing and planning everything they could not just to fight the blight but to OPPOSE this regime (and that means Anora).  Riorden volunteers since he's a native Fereldan.  It's in the files.

-Polaris



Which, in failing to do, says that they will close off the border and leave Ferelden to the Blight. Also in the files.

Onto second post:

If the purpose of capturing the Warden alive and putting them in Ft. Drakon was not public execution/political use, then why would Cauthrien do it? Other than as a plot device.

Loghain does not consider Eamon public enemy number one. he considers Orlais, and by extension, the Wardens to fill this role. Think about the conversation that takes place when Eamon first calls the landsmeet and Loghain, Howe, and Cauthrien come storming into Eamon's estate. Look at the difference in how he talks to/regards the Warden compared to his posture towards Eamon.

He is dismissive and cold towards the Warden. Towards Eamon, however, he does the whole "I'm shocked" schtick. He attempts to persuade Eamon to stand with him, call off the Landsmeet. He even pleads with him, invoking Rowan, Eamon's sister. He is greatly irritated and annoyed by Eamon's actions, but not  to the point of being enemy number 1.

This whole exchange shows me 2 things:

1. Loghain doesn't bother with your warden because he thinks talking to you is a waste of time. because you are a Warden, and by extension, an Orlesian spy, Your loyalties are clear to him, there is no point in talking to you, you are a stain that must be erased if Ferelden is to be safe.
2. Eamon, on the other hand, is a ferelden noble and brother to it's former queen, who fought for the freedom of ferelden. Loghain thinks he's probably been brainwashed or manipulated by the Warden and orlesian interests. Thus, Eamon, in his mind, can still possibly be swayed to call the whole Landsmeet business off.

So again, Cauthrien/Loghain choice to imprison you instead of putting a sword through your helpless body (and Alistair's, if he's with you) makes absolutely no sense. Even less sense is that only the Grey Wardens are taken, the other companions, who serve you and are loyal to you, are allowed to leave, unscathed and fully armed. (And if you have Morrigan or Wynne in your party, its even more confusing, given they are both mages in service to the Warden, and thus, imminenet threats to any attempt to acost youy).

It just makes no sense at all, other than as an ill concieved plot device to generate another sequence of events considered necessary for the plot. And when you consider that, after escaping, Anora runs to Eamon and tells him the warden has been captured and needs to be broken out quickly, instead of slipping off and hiding somewhere else (especially if she sold you out to Cauthrien), well....

The only reasonable explaination is that the developers didn't spend much time making sense here. I.e, bad writing, plot hole. Anything else doesn't follow reason.

#141
IanPolaris

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Glaucon wrote...

@IanPolaris

Whether they are facts is the entire point is it not? Yet you still fail to explain how Anora managed to get the correct information to Cauthrien?


Already explained months ago.  The mage is by Arl Howe's side as a bodyguard.  If the mage is dead then so is Howe if the Warden still lives.  Anora via Erlina could easily have had Ser Cauthien in position.  This is hardly elaborate since it's established that Anora frequently uses Erlina as her messenger and gobetween.  (Indeed in that longer thread there was reasonable speculation that Erlina was in fact a Bard in first Maric's and then Anora's employ.  If so Erlina probably did the heavy lifting).

I'm willing to accept any evidence but you just keep throwing supposition at me --and I throw it right back because it's all we have. I'm willing to accept many arguments as to why Cauthrien knew what she did including the fact that it was just a **** up in writing.


Negative Evidence is evidence.  I am the one suppling all the evidence.  You refuse to accept it which means you merit the title of Anora apologist.

But for it to be solely the cause of a conspiracy by Anora is stretching my imagination. It is so elaborate, it involves great risk to Anora and isn't guaranteed a success. You seem to like your logic so try applying Occam's razor to the plan that you feel Anora constructed.

ETA
My point about Occam is: explanatory power.  Not simplicity.


Hardly.  We've. Been. Through. This.  Months and months ago and all other reasonable possibilities (and bad writing is not a reasonable possibility if some other explaination exists) were excluded.  It is NOT eleborate and certainly not by Anora's standards (and we are told in game repeated that Anora likes her elaborate schemes anyway so this is totally in character for her).  All she has to do is put Arl Eamon into an untenable position of either rescuing her (and getting the warden captured) in which case Loghain (and Anora) win OR getting in good with the warden in which case she retains the throne and thus still wins.  The immediate goal of Anora's (other than staying on the throne) is the death of Arl Howe which she artfully sets you up to do....and then has your Warden take the blame for it.

There is no other reasonable or logical explaination.

1.  We know that Arl Howe's men did not know you were coming.  Since all of Loghain's spying go through Arl Howe (his spymaster) that precludes the notion that Loghain's spies tipped her off. 

2.  Even if they did, they know that the murder of Arl Howe is NOT on the agenda and thus no one on the outside knows that this is what you wind up doing.  This is a last minute change of plans.

3. It is Anora that sets you up to confront Arl Howe even to the point of offering (and lying about) unconditional support in the Landsmeet to do so.  There is no way anyone on the outside could know (at least in the time alloted) about this change of plans.

4.  The first time (if you are clever...you can avoid the outside guards), that Arl's Howe's men absolutely know youare there is when you enter the dungeon.  There is no way they'd have enough time (unless it was prepositioned which would require prior knowledge which they clearly do not have) to send the alarm...and in any event when you go back upstairs the alarm has clearly not been raised.  That means that none of Arl Howe's men could have sent for Ser Cauthrien....and none of them KNOW you killed the Arl regardless.

The ONLY one that knows you confront Howe and his group of bodyguards and win is Anora (and Erlina) and they can time Howe's death nearly to the second (or his bodyguard mage's anyway which is good enough for this purpose).

So not only is Anora the ONLY way that Ser Cauthrien could be at Howe's doorstep just as you are leaving (a ridiculous response time otherwise) AND know you in fact killed Arl Howe is if Anora told her, it's actually the most reasonable and simpliest explaination as well that makes the most sense within the story.

There is NO other explaination in game.  I'm sorry about that for those that like Anora but it's a simple fact of the game.  She betrays you.

-Polaris

Modifié par IanPolaris, 21 décembre 2010 - 09:20 .


#142
IanPolaris

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[double post]

Modifié par IanPolaris, 21 décembre 2010 - 09:12 .


#143
IanPolaris

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Skadi_the_Evil_Elf wrote...

The only reasonable explaination is that the developers didn't spend much time making sense here. I.e, bad writing, plot hole. Anything else doesn't follow reason.


I don't have to resort to "bad writing" and "plot device" to make Ser Cautherien's appearence with her charge make absolutely perfect sense.  Anora betrays you is a completely valid, in-game explaination that fits all the observed parameters WITHOUT resorting to metagaming.

That makes it the right one (metagame vs ingame means metagame loses).

As for why Anora rushes to Eamon to try to rescue you:

1.  If you have Morrigan's ring, it's Morrigan (not Anora) who tells Eamon where you are.

2.  What better way to completely discredit Eamon before the landsmeet if the rescue fails (and unlike Loghain, Anora clearly views Eamon with suspicion at best) and if it suceeds she gets in good with the warden.  Win, win.  It's how Anora thinks.

-Polaris

#144
Skadi_the_Evil_Elf

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IanPolaris wrote...
I don't have to resort to "bad writing" and "plot device" to make Ser Cautherien's appearence with her charge make absolutely perfect sense.  Anora betrays you is a completely valid, in-game explaination that fits all the observed parameters WITHOUT resorting to metagaming.



But it does not make absolute perfect sense. Anora betraying is not a valid, in game explaination. Anora, for starters, has no gurantee that your Warden will not simply slay Erlina out of hand and refuse to show up at the estate. Beyond that, we see in game, in the cutscenes, that Anora wants to remove her father from power because he is interfering. Risking the life of the Warden, who is possibly the only person who can remove her father from the playing field, before she even knows where they stand, is also inconsitant.

That makes it the right one (metagame vs ingame means metagame loses).



Please tell me you did not write this. Really.

I mean, I can argue that claiming Anora plans to betray you from the get-go is metagaming nonsense. I see nothing even remotely pointing to such in game. You eagerness to dismiss people with claims of "metagaming", or declare everyone's take or opinion on the incident as automatically invalid, destroys an arguement before it can be made. It is also pretty childish. Unless you can whip out concrete in game dialogues that say "Anora wants you gone off the bat" or "Anora and Cauthrien were in cahoots all along" then all is pure speculation and opinion.

Opinions, you are more than welcome to hold. But others have legit reasons for disagreeing.

As for why Anora rushes to Eamon to try to rescue you:

1.  If you have Morrigan's ring, it's Morrigan (not Anora) who tells Eamon where you are.



Good for Morrigan. However, I can't really say, as I play female characters, and thus, Morrigan or her ring are useless points. Anora is the one who first talks to Eamon, and suggests FT. Drakon the liliest destination. Morrigan doesn't say a thing, unless she was in my party, and Anora betrayed me.

2.  What better way to completely discredit Eamon before the landsmeet if the rescue fails (and unlike Loghain, Anora clearly views Eamon with suspicion at best) and if it suceeds she gets in good with the warden.  Win, win.  It's how Anora thinks.

-Polaris



If Anora views Eamon with suspicion, than she is an idiot for returning to the estate and trying to round up a rescue. Further more, she's an idiot for deciding to remain there, especially if she betrayed you to Cauthrien.

Anora is anything but an idiot.

#145
KnightofPhoenix

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Hence the result of bad writing. Circumlocutory discussions that are pointless and ultimately entirely based on the reality that the devs wanted to include a fun breakout quest but didn't know how exactly, so they threw it in, in a half arsed fashion. But hey, discuss away.

Modifié par KnightofPhoenix, 21 décembre 2010 - 09:47 .


#146
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IanPolaris wrote: "Negative Evidence is evidence. I am the one suppling all the evidence. You refuse to accept it which means you merit the title of Anora apologist.".

Right, so I'm wrong because I don't see the merit in your argument? Which is basically a form of argumentum ad ignorantiam. And when you say "We've been through this months and months ago" you are appealing to authority which I don't recognise. And what on earth you mean by "Negative Evidence" I have no idea.

Also you have again denied the possibility of being trailed by Loghain's men, this time by insisting that Loghain uses only Howe's men for spies.

I get to quote Churchill twice in one day thanks to you: "A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.".

What I see you doing in this argument is taking something that could  be the truth and declaring it is truth because no one has disproved it.  But you are suffering from a lack of evidence --and more to the point: so are we.  Because your argument may be true does not make it true.  You are still required to put forward evidence and you have not.  Your supposition is plausible (that I won't contest) but it is still only supposition.

IanPolaris wrote: "The ONLY one that knows you confront Howe and his group of bodyguards and win is Anora (and Erlina) and they can time Howe's death nearly to the second (or his bodyguard mage's anyway which is good enough for this purpose).".

It's not good enough.  Anora has to assume that you have killed Howe also and then sent Erlina to notify Cauthrien of an act that she cannot verify.  Anora would look equally stupid if my Warden pointed out that they had simply knocked Howe out and were only rescuing her.

ETA  bit of a rolling edit going on in this post until IanPolaris answers.

Modifié par Glaucon, 22 décembre 2010 - 12:42 .


#147
Sabariel

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Loghain has spies watching Eamon's estate. Spies that follow you when you leave said estate (and since you walk out the front door it wouldn't be hard for them to see when you leave). They follow you to Howe's estate. They, naturally, suspect trouble. They send a runner to fetch Cauthrien. Cauthrien enters the estate, sees the dead soldiers strewn about, and makes the logical assumption that gee... maybe Howe is dead too.

"Anora and Cauthrien were in cahoots" is not the only explanation.

Modifié par Sabariel, 22 décembre 2010 - 12:27 .


#148
Skadi_the_Evil_Elf

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Sabariel wrote...

Loghain has spies watching Eamon's estate. Spies that follow you when you leave said estate (and since you walk out the front door it wouldn't be hard for them to see when you leave). They follow you to Howe's estate. They, naturally, suspect trouble. They send a runner to fetch Cauthrien. Cauthrien enters the estate, sees the dead soldiers strewn about, and makes the logical assumption that gee... maybe Howe is dead too.

"Anora and Cauthrien were in cahoots" is not the only explanation.



Ahh, now there is a possibility I had not thought of. Thanks for pointing out a VERY valid explaination.

#149
PatT2

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I wonder if the writers put anywhere near the amount of thought into this as the people in this thread have?

#150
Skadi_the_Evil_Elf

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PatT2 wrote...

I wonder if the writers put anywhere near the amount of thought into this as the people in this thread have?



If they did,. half the discussions on this board wouldn't exist. ;)