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[ejoslin]

IanPolaris wrote...

ejoslin wrote...

The thing is, both interpretations are valid, not just one.  which is why it's a shame there's not more scripting notes.  I think Cauthrien was shocked that Anora was in Howe's estate -- that's just how the conversation sounds to me.  Cauthrien's confidence, her absolute disbelief upon hearing that Anora was right there.  Actually, it's Anora lying to Cauthrien about being kidnapped that pretty much convinces me that Cauthrien and Anora were not in cahoots. 

Taken in isolation, you're right.  Both interpretations are valid.  However, unless you appeal to bad writing (in which case you can show anything at all), only the betrayal option allows Ser Cauthrien to know that you murdered Arl Howe and his men-at-arms.  It's this that makes other interpretations impossible rather than unlikely.

-Polaris

I don't attribute anything to bad writing, but the lack of time and resources do show in the end game.

what i believe is that Anora sent the warden to kill Howe.  I do believe that Howe is holding her prisoner and she thinks it's possible that Howe will kill her and possibly frame the warden.  I think her calling for the warden is preemtive.

As far as Cauthrien being there...  the timing just doesn't work for either scenario.  someone did tell Cauthrien that the warden was in Howe's estate, I agree with you there.  But it doesn't make sense that it would be Anora if Anora wants Howe dead and wants the ability to get her father off the throne (Cailin's troops were killed as were the Cousland's leaving Loghain's the major military strength in the nation).  Nor do her actions afterwards -- going to Eamon -- make sense if she wants the warden out of the way or dead.

Edit: Either way, the timing is just TOO perfect unless Cauthrien wants Howe dead as well.  but there's no indication of that.

Modifié par ejoslin, 22 décembre 2010 - 06:03 .

[IanPolaris]

ejoslin wrote...

IanPolaris wrote...

ejoslin wrote...

The thing is, both interpretations are valid, not just one.  which is why it's a shame there's not more scripting notes.  I think Cauthrien was shocked that Anora was in Howe's estate -- that's just how the conversation sounds to me.  Cauthrien's confidence, her absolute disbelief upon hearing that Anora was right there.  Actually, it's Anora lying to Cauthrien about being kidnapped that pretty much convinces me that Cauthrien and Anora were not in cahoots. 

Taken in isolation, you're right.  Both interpretations are valid.  However, unless you appeal to bad writing (in which case you can show anything at all), only the betrayal option allows Ser Cauthrien to know that you murdered Arl Howe and his men-at-arms.  It's this that makes other interpretations impossible rather than unlikely.

-Polaris

I don't attribute anything to bad writing, but the lack of time and resources do show in the end game.

I don't want to be disagreeable, but you said a couple of posts earlier:

I am of the camp that this is a bit of an oversight

That sounds like an appeal to bad writing to me.

what i believe is that Anora sent the warden to kill Howe.  I do believe that Howe is holding her prisoner and she thinks it's possible that Howe will kill her and possibly frame the warden.  I think her calling for the warden is preemtive.

I do believe that the killing of Howe is Anora's intent from the start.  Indeed if anyone is guilty of the murder of Arl Howe, it's Anora not the Warden.  As for framing the warden, I don't see how that's really possible unless the Warden actually enters Howe's estate and the warden (not even as a Cousland) has any reason to (and many good reasons not to as Arl Eamon will surely tell him or her) to stay as far away from that estate as possible.  Also remember that Arl Howe would not only have to fool the landsmeet as a whole (doable if Loghain backs the play) but Loghain himself.....and Arl Howe is evil but not stupid.  Without a really good cover, Arl Howe would survive just long enough to tell Loghain that he killed his daughter and not a moment more.

Anora herself will tell you she was never in any real danger if she fails to side with you on the Landsmeet and you challenge her.....especially when she promised unconditional support in Howe's estate.  In short, I'm not buying the second part.  I don't think Howe at this time had any intention of killing Anora...but Anora does love the dramatic and the thought was broached to Loghain where Anora could hear it (per Loghain himself).

As far as Cauthrien being there...  the timing just doesn't work for either scenario.  someone did tell Cauthrien that the warden was in Howe's estate, I agree with you there.  But it doesn't make sense that it would be Anora if Anora wants Howe dead and wants the ability to get her father off the throne (Cailin's troops were killed as were the Cousland's leaving Loghain's the major military strength in the nation).  Nor do her actions afterwards -- going to Eamon -- make sense if she wants the warden out of the way or dead.

Edit: Either way, the timing is just TOO perfect unless Cauthrien wants Howe dead as well.  but there's no indication of that.

That's just it though.  The only way that Ser Cauthrien could be there is if someone tipped her off after you entered the estate, and even then she'd have to be almost perfectly prepositioned to make it in time (you go through the estate like a hot knife through butter).  We also know it wasn't one of Howe's men because otherwise the entire castle would have been alerted and when the confrontation takes place none of Arl Howe's men that are still living know anything is wrong.

That leaves only two possible sources of information for Ser Cauthrien: 

1. A Loghain tail that somehow doesn't report to his spymaster (unlikely but remotely possible)
2. Anora via Erlina tells her.

Of the two, only option 2 permits Ser Cauthrien to know that you in fact murdered Arl Howe.

Anything else appeals to bad writing.

-Polaris

[IanPolaris]

I just thought of this but if Anora is using Erlina to rely the information/signal to Ser Cauthrien, then Ser Cauthrien might not know (or care for that matter) about the queen's specific location at all. She (Anora) tells Ser Cauthrien that she believes the Warden is going to murder Arl Howe and asks her to be ready at a certain place and time (via Erlina). Then Erlina sends the signal and/or rushes to Ser Cauthrien with the news that Howe had been killed.



Naturally Ser Cauthrien would come right away and naturally she'd take it as the Queen's directive since the Queen (apparently) frequently uses Erlina as her deputized messenger. In any event, none of this requires that Ser Cauthrien know that the Queen is a prisonor.....so *even* *if* Ser Cauthrien didn't know that the queen was a prisonor (and both this and her status as prisonor are still disputable), it does not constitute evidence against Anora betraying the Warden.



-Polaris

[ejoslin]

IanPolaris wrote...

I don't want to be disagreeable, but you said a couple of posts earlier:

I am of the camp that this is a bit of an oversight

That sounds like an appeal to bad writing to me.

I believe that about your theory as well though.  I think either scenario suffers from this

IanPolaris wrote...
I do believe that the killing of Howe is Anora's intent from the start.  Indeed if anyone is guilty of the murder of Arl Howe, it's Anora not the Warden.  As for framing the warden, I don't see how that's really possible unless the Warden actually enters Howe's estate and the warden (not even as a Cousland) has any reason to (and many good reasons not to as Arl Eamon will surely tell him or her) to stay as far away from that estate as possible.  Also remember that Arl Howe would not only have to fool the landsmeet as a whole (doable if Loghain backs the play) but Loghain himself.....and Arl Howe is evil but not stupid.  Without a really good cover, Arl Howe would survive just long enough to tell Loghain that he killed his daughter and not a moment more.

Anora herself will tell you she was never in any real danger if she fails to side with you on the Landsmeet and you challenge her.....especially when she promised unconditional support in Howe's estate.  In short, I'm not buying the second part.  I don't think Howe at this time had any intention of killing Anora...but Anora does love the dramatic and the thought was broached to Loghain where Anora could hear it (per Loghain himself).

Both a city elf and a Cousland have plenty of reason to kill Howe.  

Loghain if friendly (you need a mod or a console command) admits that Anora may have overheard Howe saying that they should kill her.

I'm looking in the toolset for the particular dialog you're speaking of -- where is it?  I see other dialog where she talks about not wanting Alistair to destroy the country...  Then later i see she was trying to save her father.

Oh, there is this:

Warden; He tried to kill you!
Anora: Did he? Are you certain of that? (Almost coy.  She may or may not have entirely made that up to get the player's help.)
Anora: I know my father. He would never do less than his utmost for the sake of his country. But I needed to know <emp>your</emp> mind, Warden. You could have proven yourself an ally of Ferelden. (firm)

There are some other branches, this is the most beneficial to your argument.  And I would say it does not prove anything other than Anora is trying to either save her father's life or put herself on the throne knowing that you will not support her.  She believes that Alistair will destroy Ferelden.

That's just it though.  The only way that Ser Cauthrien could be there is if someone tipped her off after you entered the estate, and even then she'd have to be almost perfectly prepositioned to make it in time (you go through the estate like a hot knife through butter).  We also know it wasn't one of Howe's men because otherwise the entire castle would have been alerted and when the confrontation takes place none of Arl Howe's men that are still living know anything is wrong.
Anora: It is unfortunate for all of us that you did not. (almost disappointed)

That leaves only two possible sources of information for Ser Cauthrien: 

1. A Loghain tail that somehow doesn't report to his spymaster (unlikely but remotely possible)
2. Anora via Erlina tells her.

Of the two, only option 2 permits Ser Cauthrien to know that you in fact murdered Arl Howe.

Anything else appeals to bad writing.

-Polaris

3. A spy in Arl Eamon's estate.

but the problem is with any scenario is that no one had time to tell Cauthrien that Howe was dead.  This HAS to be an assumption because not one person had the time to get downstairs then back up to report it to her.

see, the weakness you claim for the argument against Anora being a part of it is also a weakness is YOUR argument.

[IanPolaris]

ejoslin wrote...

IanPolaris wrote...

I don't want to be disagreeable, but you said a couple of posts earlier:

I am of the camp that this is a bit of an oversight

That sounds like an appeal to bad writing to me.

I believe that about your theory as well though.  I think either scenario suffers from this

Not so.  Anora could have Ser Cauthrien prepped and ready to go (for days if need be) and wouldn't even have to do so directly (Erlina could do this).  Furthermore it would only take seconds for Erlina to send a prearranged signal or even tell Ser Cauthrien directly if she were nearby (which she would be in this case).

At no point do I appeal to anything other than reasonable in-game elements unlike everyone else.

IanPolaris wrote...
I do believe that the killing of Howe is Anora's intent from the start.  Indeed if anyone is guilty of the murder of Arl Howe, it's Anora not the Warden.  As for framing the warden, I don't see how that's really possible unless the Warden actually enters Howe's estate and the warden (not even as a Cousland) has any reason to (and many good reasons not to as Arl Eamon will surely tell him or her) to stay as far away from that estate as possible.  Also remember that Arl Howe would not only have to fool the landsmeet as a whole (doable if Loghain backs the play) but Loghain himself.....and Arl Howe is evil but not stupid.  Without a really good cover, Arl Howe would survive just long enough to tell Loghain that he killed his daughter and not a moment more.

Anora herself will tell you she was never in any real danger if she fails to side with you on the Landsmeet and you challenge her.....especially when she promised unconditional support in Howe's estate.  In short, I'm not buying the second part.  I don't think Howe at this time had any intention of killing Anora...but Anora does love the dramatic and the thought was broached to Loghain where Anora could hear it (per Loghain himself).

Both a city elf and a Cousland have plenty of reason to kill Howe.  

Loghain if friendly (you need a mod or a console command) admits that Anora may have overheard Howe saying that they should kill her.

I'm looking in the toolset for the particular dialog you're speaking of -- where is it?  I see other dialog where she talks about not wanting Alistair to destroy the country...  Then later i see she was trying to save her father.

Oh, there is this:

Warden; He tried to kill you!
Anora: Did he? Are you certain of that? (Almost coy.  She may or may not have entirely made that up to get the player's help.)
Anora: I know my father. He would never do less than his utmost for the sake of his country. But I needed to know your mind, Warden. You could have proven yourself an ally of Ferelden. (firm)

There are some other branches, this is the most beneficial to your argument.  And I would say it does not prove anything other than Anora is trying to either save her father's life or put herself on the throne knowing that you will not support her.  She believes that Alistair will destroy Ferelden.

I think it shows well enough that Anora didn't think she was any danger (something essentailly confirmed by Loghain himself).  Anora was playing games with you....just as Howe warns.

That's just it though.  The only way that Ser Cauthrien could be there is if someone tipped her off after you entered the estate, and even then she'd have to be almost perfectly prepositioned to make it in time (you go through the estate like a hot knife through butter).  We also know it wasn't one of Howe's men because otherwise the entire castle would have been alerted and when the confrontation takes place none of Arl Howe's men that are still living know anything is wrong.
Anora: It is unfortunate for all of us that you did not. (almost disappointed)

That leaves only two possible sources of information for Ser Cauthrien: 

1. A Loghain tail that somehow doesn't report to his spymaster (unlikely but remotely possible)
2. Anora via Erlina tells her.

Of the two, only option 2 permits Ser Cauthrien to know that you in fact murdered Arl Howe.

Anything else appeals to bad writing.

-Polaris

3. A spy in Arl Eamon's estate.

but the problem is with any scenario is that no one had time to tell Cauthrien that Howe was dead.  This HAS to be an assumption because not one person had the time to get downstairs then back up to report it to her.

see, the weakness you claim for the argument against Anora being a part of it is also a weakness is YOUR argument.

False.  The Spy theory has been discussed and it doesn't work.  A spy in Eamon's household by itself is not only believable but likely.  However, the only thing the spy would know is when you and your team set out for Arl Howe's estate. 

Not only do they not know about Arl Howe's murder, but in fact a competant spy would know the plan is NOT to murder Arl Howe and would know that you believe the Queen is a prisoner (which is completely nixed if you buy into the idea that Ser Cauthrien is suprised by this).  Not only that, but they'd have no idea that a confrontation with Arl Howe would even take place.....and finally such spies would be reporting to Arl Howe who is after all Loghain's spymaster (Brenwick and others confirm this throughout the game)....but Howe obviously wasn't told.

In short, your hypothesis can not explain Ser Cauthrien's timing.

The only way her timing can be explained is if someone tipped her off nearly immediately upon actually entering the estate (within mins anyway).  Only an explicit tail or Anora could do that, and of those two only Anora has the information that Ser Cauthrien obviously aquires.

-Polaris

[ejoslin]

Nothing can explain Ser Cauthrien's timing. It's too perfect. Nothing can explain Ser Cauthrien knowing Howe was killed as there just wasn't the time for someone to go and confirm it.



I mean, if you really want to nit pick, try going to the front room before talking to Anora again. Cauthrien and her troops aren't there. What triggers the scene is releasing Anora -- this is a technical thing.



Anora's actions afterwards just make no sense if she were the one behind Cauthrien's appearance. If she wanted the warden dead or out of the way, she would not have gone to Eamon. If she truly were supporting her father 100%, she would have gone to Loghain.



Your scenario also has a few logical issues if you choose to look at it in a different way.



that's the fantastic thing about DAO, though. You're given a frame within to write your own story -- it's possible to pull apart other people's interpretations, but that doesn't mean how they see it is wrong; it means they're either viewing different dialogs that support how their story goes or they view different actions and motivations -- all supported by the dialog. There are times it works better than others. I guess maybe because i'm used to the Zevthread, so I'm used to people looking at the exact same dialogs and scenarios and getting different meanings from them.

[IanPolaris]

ejoslin wrote...

Nothing can explain Ser Cauthrien's timing. It's too perfect. Nothing can explain Ser Cauthrien knowing Howe was killed as there just wasn't the time for someone to go and confirm it.

I mean, if you really want to nit pick, try going to the front room before talking to Anora again. Cauthrien and her troops aren't there. What triggers the scene is releasing Anora -- this is a technical thing.

You're right about the techical (metagame) trigger, but setting that aside and looking at what I call the "ingame reality", you can in fact predict Ser Cauthrien's perfect timing allowing a little bit of ordinary serendipity (which is not unreasonable).   So I take issue with your first statement.

That said, the number of ways her incredible timing can be explained can be reduced to two and really only two possibilities:

1.  You had a tail.
2.  Anora (via Erlina) rats you out.

Of those two, only the second permits Ser Cauthrien to know you murdered Arl Howe. 

WIthout appealing to 'technical glitches' and bad writing, there simply is no other explaination.  I'm sorry but there isn't.

Anora's actions afterwards just make no sense if she were the one behind Cauthrien's appearance. If she wanted the warden dead or out of the way, she would not have gone to Eamon. If she truly were supporting her father 100%, she would have gone to Loghain.

You aren't thinking like Anora.  Anora loves her drama and her games.  I never said (and I don't believe) that Anora wanted the Warden dead or out of the way (and the fact she doesn't is the only reasonable explaination for why a victorious Ser Cauthrien doesn't execute the warden on the spot given that Loghain has already tried and failed twice to quite openly assassinate you). 

Anora wants:

1.  Howe dead.  In fact I think this was her primary goal in this from the start.
2.  Her hooks into you, so she has a counterweight in Eamon's camp just in case her father loses.  This way she stays on the throne no matter what.

Thus she has every reason to rescue the warden.  Again, either she has a foot on either side, or the attempt politically destroys Eamon in which case she still wins.

As for my scenario having a few logical holes of it's own, no it really doesn't.  At worst it means that some characters don't always act with absolute consistancy, but guess what?  People in life aren't always absolutely consistant either.

-Polaris

Edit:  It's not the dialog (of itself) that rules out all other possibilities (other than Anora ratting you out), it's the simple combination of Ser Cauthrien's timing AND the information she possesses.  At no time am I interpreting dialog lines to reach this conclusion (except to note what information Ser Cauthrien has of course).

Modifié par IanPolaris, 22 décembre 2010 - 07:25 .

[ejoslin]

IanPolaris wrote...

ejoslin wrote...

Nothing can explain Ser Cauthrien's timing. It's too perfect. Nothing can explain Ser Cauthrien knowing Howe was killed as there just wasn't the time for someone to go and confirm it.

I mean, if you really want to nit pick, try going to the front room before talking to Anora again. Cauthrien and her troops aren't there. What triggers the scene is releasing Anora -- this is a technical thing.

You're right about the techical (metagame) trigger, but setting that aside and looking at what I call the "ingame reality", you can in fact predict Ser Cauthrien's perfect timing allowing a little bit of ordinary serendipity (which is not unreasonable).   So I take issue with your first statement.

That said, the number of ways her incredible timing can be explained can be reduced to two and really only two possibilities:

1.  You had a tail.
2.  Anora (via Erlina) rats you out.

Of those two, only the second permits Ser Cauthrien to know you murdered Arl Howe. 

WIthout appealing to 'technical glitches' and bad writing, there simply is no other explaination.  I'm sorry but there isn't.

Anora's actions afterwards just make no sense if she were the one behind Cauthrien's appearance. If she wanted the warden dead or out of the way, she would not have gone to Eamon. If she truly were supporting her father 100%, she would have gone to Loghain.

You aren't thinking like Anora.  Anora loves her drama and her games.  I never said (and I don't believe) that Anora wanted the Warden dead or out of the way (and the fact she doesn't is the only reasonable explaination for why a victorious Ser Cauthrien doesn't execute the warden on the spot given that Loghain has already tried and failed twice to quite openly assassinate you). 

Anora wants:

1.  Howe dead.  In fact I think this was her primary goal in this from the start.
2.  Her hooks into you, so she has a counterweight in Eamon's camp just in case her father loses.  This way she stays on the throne no matter what.

Thus she has every reason to rescue the warden.  Again, either she has a foot on either side, or the attempt politically destroys Eamon in which case she still wins.

As for my scenario having a few logical holes of it's own, no it really doesn't.  At worst it means that some characters don't always act with absolute consistancy, but guess what?  People in life aren't always absolutely consistant either.

-Polaris

Edit:  It's not the dialog (of itself) that rules out all other possibilities (other than Anora ratting you out), it's the simple combination of Ser Cauthrien's timing AND the information she possesses.  At no time am I interpreting dialog lines to reach this conclusion (except to note what information Ser Cauthrien has of course).

No, I'm not thinking like the interpretation you have of Anora.  Mine happens to be different.
Erlina wouldn't know you killed Howe if she went to get Cauthrien.  No one can possibly know that.  

I agree that Anora wants Howe dead.  There is no way for anyone to confirm Howe is dead, however.  He certainly is alive at the time Cauthrien is informed that you're at Howe's estate.  Cauthrien is guessing that you killed Howe no matter what.

The story that Anora tries to have you captured, perhaps lies to Cauthrien to ensure it happens, just doesn't make sense at all to me.  Cauthrien somehow knowing throws a monkey wrench into Anora's plans, IMO, and needlessly endangers her and your support of her.

[IanPolaris]

Glaucon wrote...

From paragraph (1) you accept that Anora is making an assumption.

Sure but only in the same sense I will assume the sun will rise tomorrow.  Given both the nature of the Warden and Arl Howe himself and the fact he's got an overwheming (supposedly) bodyguard force, it's not much of an assumption.

From paragraph (2) you yourself assume that the only outcome is that the Warden kills Howe.  This is not the only possible outcome: the Warden could've incapacitated Howe.  So stating that Anora's degree of certainty about her belief in Howe's death is indistinguishable from1 is an exaggeration. 

Other than Teagon and maybe Zev (if you recruit him) the warden never leaves live enemies behind and Anora wouldn't know about these two exceptions. 

From paragraph (3).  I don't believe it's possible to say who Cauthrien is looking at.  She is certainly addressing the Warden not Anora.  Anora probably feels comfortable backstabbing the Warden due to Cauthrien's surprised reaction to the news that Howe had been detaining Anora.  The Vo notes suggest that Anora is simply looking to escape -- possibly from both her father and Howe.

Either Ser Cauthrien knows Anora is there or she doesn't.  Anora could have easily betrayed the warden in either case since she is clearly using Erlina as her messenger.  It would be quite possible for Anora to betray the warden and tip off Ser Cauthrien without Ser Cauthrien ever knowing that Anora was within 100 miles of Howe's estate.

From paragraph (4) Loghain tails would inform Loghain of the Wardens intended destination and Loghain would assume the outcome.  Loghain's interest (assuming that he is unaware of Howe's actions) here would be to use the scenario to cripple the Warden.  So Loghain would assume Howe's death and inform Cauthrien to make the arrest.  Personally I think that at this point Loghain is sacrificing Howe to ensure that the Warden is out of the way.

A most unreasonable and unnecessary assumption.  Unlike Anora the tails won't know that there was any contact between the Arl and the Warden at all (and the Arl is often not in his estates and the estates are a big place).  It's unnnecessary as well becasue just by being their the Warden can be arrested and summarily executed without any murder charge.

No matter how hard you try, the tail hypothesis can not explain Ser Cauthrien's timing AND the information she has.

IanPolaris wrote: "I'm sorry, but the evidence is so overwhelming that at this point you're going to have to provide me with solid unshakable evidence that Anora didn't betray the warden at Howe's estate.".

That's a stunt IanPolaris.  I'm not trying to prove anything so don't push the burden of proof back to me.  All I am doing is pointing out that there is an absence of evidence to support either point of view.  The argument for Anora relies on supposition as does the argument against her. 

The only supposition that the argument against Anora requires is that no bad writing and/or plot holes are present.  That's all.  It's not a stunt.  Just a fact.

It's your turn to spin this ridiculous wheel.

I've done so.  You have not.  Your turn.

-Polaris

[IanPolaris]

ejoslin wrote...

No, I'm not thinking like the interpretation you have of Anora.  Mine happens to be different.
Erlina wouldn't know you killed Howe if she went to get Cauthrien.  No one can possibly know that.  

Sure she could...at least to 99.99999 (repeating) degree certainty.  If Ser Cauthrien is prepositioned to act in case of funny business at the Howe estate (and I think this is reasonable from either Loghain or Anora), then Erlina might need all of thirty seconds to send a signal or if Ser Cauthrien's forces were close enough (not unreasonable) perhaps a minute to tell her.  It takes that long for you to get back to Anora after you kill Howe (and Anora will know the instant you do because that magical shield will drop).

Yes neither actually sees you do the dirty, but that's unnecessary.  They know you killed the mage shielding the door and they know that mage is by Howe's side, and given Howe and the Warden, it's near as a certain thing as to make no difference that at that point Howe is dead.  This is especially true if you handle the prisonors (Irminric and Vaugn) after you kill Howe.

I agree that Anora wants Howe dead.  There is no way for anyone to confirm Howe is dead, however.  He certainly is alive at the time Cauthrien is informed that you're at Howe's estate.  Cauthrien is guessing that you killed Howe no matter what.

Only in the very most technical sense.  If I walk into a sealed room with a rabid dog, and after a couple of minutes of snarling and combat, I walk out covered in blood that's not my own, it's a very safe assumption (esp if it's a lot of blood) that I killed the rabid dog.  Same here....but only Anora has that degree of certainty.

The story that Anora tries to have you captured, perhaps lies to Cauthrien to ensure it happens, just doesn't make sense at all to me.  Cauthrien somehow knowing throws a monkey wrench into Anora's plans, IMO, and needlessly endangers her and your support of her.

Why not.  Many people (not just me by a long chalk) have given many plausible and reasonable reasons why Anora would want you captured especially if she was gaming both sides (and we are told explicitly that Anora loves to do exactly that).

-Polaris

[IanPolaris]

Glaucon wrote...

Ser Cauthrien does not need to know you have killed Howe if she is there to kill Howe herself, under direct orders from Loghain.  Loghain would do this as a certain way of crippling the Warden.  Cauthrien specifically states that Loghain is only interested in the Warden.  Anora hot foots it straight back to Eamon and not Daddy implying that Anora does not want to be in the presence of her father whom she believes has gone mad with paranoia.

Ser Cauthrien is loyal to Loghain (virtually hero worships him) and to his daughter.  It is beyond believe that she would not worry about the queen....unless there in fact was no need for her to worry (as Anora herself at least strongly implies later as does Loghain himself).  As for Loghain killing Howe, Howe is is spymaster and it is Howe that is providing Loghain with his most important backing.  Saying that he now wants to kill him is completely in left field.  Anora....yes.  I believe that Anora was going to arrange to have Howe killed either way, but Loghain?  No.  But if you agree with Anora doing this, we are right back to her betraying the warden.

Why would Loghain spies attempt to contact Howe.  More to the point how will they contact Howe?  Do they ask our warden for a few minutes of his time?  Even a spy under the direct command of Howe would realise the gravity of the situation and go to Loghain not Howe.

Um, Howe IS Loghain's spymaster and all of Loghain's dirty tricks were run through Howe.  Bernwick in redcliff confirm this as do many other scenes in the game (it was Howe that contacted the Crows for example for Loghain).  Saying that spys would not report to their spymaster?  Please.

As for how they could contact them?  Easy.  FRONT DOOR.  That or get the guards to let them in, etc.  In fact it would be easier for them to inform Howe than Loghain ne' Ser Cauthrien.

Edit:  As for the gravity of the situation, that makes it even more not less likely that they'd go to Howe first since Howe is the one that is most directly and potentially threatened (a simply messenger boy could be sent to Logain)

There is no evidence to support either theory.  There is only supposition and in a modern court of law that would leave reasonable doubt and result in an not guilty verdict.  This is the entire meaning of the phrase innocent until proven guilty.

Sure there is.  The only way that Ser Cauthrien can know what she knows and be where and WHEN she is can only be explained if you put all the pieces together by Anora ratting you out.  Each piece may be explainable by other means, but not all of them together.

-Polaris

Modifié par IanPolaris, 22 décembre 2010 - 08:01 .

[nos_astra]

Skadi_the_Evil_Elf wrote...
So then, by this theory, Erlina is a teleporting mage that can flash back and forther between the palace and Howe's estate, bringing Cauthrien and crew, within a matter of minutes.

Don't be ridiculous. Erlina could have sent for Cauthrien before she even went to get the Warden.
If Cauthrien arrived while the Warden was looking for Howe's mage there would be enough time to fill her in.

No teleporting necessary. You can even decide if it was Erlina's idea (she just wanted to help) or Anora's trap.

[IanPolaris]

Glaucon wrote...

IanPolaris wrote...
Sure but only in the same sense I will assume the sun will rise tomorrow.  Given both the nature of the Warden and Arl Howe himself and the fact he's got an overwheming (supposedly) bodyguard force, it's not much of an assumption

Inductive reasoning has many many floors.  Assume for the sake of argument that it is 4.9 billion years or so in the future and then continue assuming that the Sun will rise the following day.

That answer would still be yes presuming the earth still existed.  It would be a very different sort of 'sun'.  The point here is that the floor for this sort of inductive reasoning is far, far from being reached.

IanPolaris wrote....
Other than Teagon and maybe Zev (if you recruit him) the warden never leaves live enemies behind and Anora wouldn't know about these two exceptions. 

Ad Hoc rubbish.  The game combat system may not give a choice about allowing the enemy to surrender or flee the field but that does not mean that a Warden cannot or would not do so.

Hardly.  The Warden has a reputation as a cold killer.  That is true even if you play a heroic warden.  Caldrius comments when you defeat him that "your reputation seems to be an accurate one" whereupon he promply goes on his hands and knees and pleads for his life.  This is a game fact and Anora would know this.

-Polaris

[IanPolaris]

[quote]Glaucon wrote...

[quote]IanPolaris wrote...
Ser Cauthrien is loyal to Loghain (virtually hero worships him) and to his daughter.  It is beyond believe that she would not worry about the queen....[/quote]

Yep.  Beyond belief.  Which is why I have not suggested it anywhere in my posts.  Let's stick to what we say shall we?
[/quote]

Actually you do admittedly by implication which is why I mention it.  The fact that Ser Cauthrien is not concerned about the queen even if she is revealed is telling evidence in it's own right.

[quote]
[quote]IanPolaris....
As for Loghain killing Howe, Howe is is spymaster and it is Howe that is providing Loghain with his most important backing.  Saying that he now wants to kill him is completely in left field.  Anora....yes.  I believe that Anora was going to arrange to have Howe killed either way, but Loghain?  No.  But if you agree with Anora doing this, we are right back to her betraying the warden.[/quote]

A substantial amount of the power that Howe has was gifted to him by Loghain.  That gift, can and was, readily transfered to the party of Loghain's choosing.  Howe is only important for as long as his use outweighs his liability.  The greatest threat to Loghain is the Warden not Anora.  Sacrificing Howe to ensure that the Warden threat is removed is precisely the sort of play that Ferelden nobles get up to.
[/quote]

There is not one shred of evidence to even suggest this while there is a lot of evidence (codecies and elsewhere) that do suggest that Anora is capable of acting as I've suggested.  There is also not one shred of evidence that Loghain decides to kill Howe (and he NEVER suggests it when you talk to him later), but there is lots of evidence that Anora very much wants Howe dead and Anora with regard to Ser Cauthrien is capable of doing what Loghain is (and the fact that Ser Cauthrien doesn't summarily execute the warden when she can and has the legal power to do so is also telling evidence....that it was Anora not Loghain that's the driving force here because as you so succintly put it, it's the Warden that is Loghain's primary threat.).

OK, if we want to play that game, I have a new theory.  I say that little green aliens from outspace came down and made a perfect clone of Loghain and they ordered the hit.  That makes as much sense as your posit.

[quote]
[quote]IanPolaris wrote...
Um, Howe IS Loghain's spymaster and all of Loghain's dirty tricks were run through Howe.  Bernwick in redcliff confirm this as do many other scenes in the game (it was Howe that contacted the Crows for example for Loghain).  Saying that spys would not report to their spymaster?  Please.

As for how they could contact them?  Easy.  FRONT DOOR.  That or get the guards to let them in, etc.  In fact it would be easier for them to inform Howe than Loghain ne' Ser Cauthrien.[/quote]

Again I don't say that Howe's spies do not, in the usual course of their work, report to Howe (matching above edit).  I state that in this scenario it makes more sense to go to Loghain.  Spies are usually very intelligent. 

The Warden goes through the Howe estate: "Like a hot knife through butter" as you succinctly put it.  Loghain has access to a larger body of men and a counterstrike will regain the element of surprise: which was in the hands of our Warden if they have successfully infiltrated the Howe estate.
[/quote]

No it doesn't.  It makes sense to send a mesage to Loghain sure, but even then Ser Cauthien's timing WITH the information she has is simply not possible.  It makes more sense if you believe that Arl Howe is in imminant danger to run not walk directly to him so at least he has a chance to escape.   Either way, the Arl's Men should have been alerted by the time you get back upstairs at the very least if not sooner (and they aren't).

-Polaris



[/quote]

Modifié par IanPolaris, 22 décembre 2010 - 08:45 .

[ejoslin]

I can think of two instances where you can let Loghain's men go, actually, off the top of my head. In the tavern in Lothering, and at the gates of Orzammar. And you can send messages to Loghain through them. I can think of a few more instances of letting your enemies go as well (though the word of that would probably not make it to Loghain).

Edit: Oh, and there's the elf in Redcliff as well, who presumably also reports to Loghain.

Modifié par ejoslin, 22 décembre 2010 - 09:21 .

[IanPolaris]

Glaucon wrote...

IanPolaris wrote...
That answer would still be yes presuming the earth still existed.  It would be a very different sort of 'sun'.  The point here is that the floor for this sort of inductive reasoning is far, far from being reached.

The point of my Sun argument is that basing predictions of the future on observations of the past is not logically justifiable.  It was a shot at your glib response to your acceptance that Anora is assuming.  You yourself are making a deductive argument.  But worry not they are riddled with problems too.

Actually it is.  Oh I grant it would fail in a philosophy course, but we aren't decontructing philosophy here.  We are pointing out reasonable expectations, and the fact is given the circumstances that Anora arranged, when that shield goes down the odds that Howe is dead is as a practical matter indistinquishable from one.

IanPolaris wrote...
Hardly.  The Warden has a reputation as a cold killer.  That is true even if you play a heroic warden.  Caldrius comments when you defeat him that "your reputation seems to be an accurate one" whereupon he promply goes on his hands and knees and pleads for his life.  This is a game fact and Anora would know this.

Cold killer of Dark Spawn maybe.  There is no Archetypal Warden so you cannot generalise as to their natures.  The possibility of a Warden allowing an enemy to flee or surrender is not excluded by any means other than the game engine.  Therefore it is not unreasonable for the Warden to have spared Howe thus making Anora's assumption a falsehood.

Cold Killer period.  Replay that scene with Caladrius or for that matter listen to Sgt Kylon ("And people attack you voluntarily....are they just stupid).  There are times you can spare people (this to Ejosin as well) but not under these circumstances.  Sparing Howe's life in his own domicile when he could "testify" against you is just stupid....and furthermore even for a good warden not his general reputation (remember that in Lothering, it was Lelianna who pleaded for their lives).  The point is by any REASONABLE standard, if you meet Howe, one of you will wind up dead.  Indeed Anora is counting on it. If she thought there was any chance you would spare Howe, there is no way she'd put herself in this position to begin with.

-Polaris

Edit:  As for the Elf in Redcliff, you aren't required to attack him and he's not your open enemy.  Apples and Oranges.

Modifié par IanPolaris, 22 décembre 2010 - 10:01 .

[ejoslin]

IanPolaris wrote...

Cold Killer period.  Replay that scene with Caladrius or for that matter listen to Sgt Kylon ("And people attack you voluntarily....are they just stupid).  There are times you can spare people (this to Ejosin as well) but not under these circumstances.  Sparing Howe's life in his own domicile when he could "testify" against you is just stupid....and furthermore even for a good warden not his general reputation (remember that in Lothering, it was Lelianna who pleaded for their lives).  The point is by any REASONABLE standard, if you meet Howe, one of you will wind up dead.  Indeed Anora is counting on it. If she thought there was any chance you would spare Howe, there is no way she'd put herself in this position to begin with.

-Polaris

Edit:  As for the Elf in Redcliff, you aren't required to attack him and he's not your open enemy.  Apples and Oranges.

Ok, see, again, you're applying one set of logic to one side, but that logic equally applies to your argument.  It makes sense that the warden would kill Howe -- the minute you set foot in his estate, that is the most logical conclusion.  That applies even if Anora is not the one to inform Cauthrien.

Anyway, you have not managed to convince me, but I do admire your tenacity.  However, it's hard to argue this with you as you are so convinced by your own arguments that you can't see why someone else wouldn't be convinced by them.

But it has been interesting.  thank you

[IanPolaris]

ejoslin wrote...

Ok, see, again, you're applying one set of logic to one side, but that logic equally applies to your argument.  It makes sense that the warden would kill Howe -- the minute you set foot in his estate, that is the most logical conclusion.  That applies even if Anora is not the one to inform Cauthrien.

That is absolutely incorrect.  We aren't talking about Howe's apartment or some middle-class dwelling.  Howe's estate is a big place, and it's not at all a given that the Warden will run into Howe even when the estate is entered.  Given that, it absoutely isn't a given the Warden will kill him.  In fact if the tail is any good at all they will know that the Warden (and Erlina) do NOT want to kill Howe because the blowback in the Landsmeet to Arl Eamon would be caytastropically bad (a point Howe himself makes when you first encounter him).

It only becomes a virtual certainty that you will kill Howe (or close enough to make no difference), if you know the Warden actually encountered Arl Howe in person.  Only two poeple outside the Warden and his party have this information, however:  Anora and Erlina (that are left alive anyway).  Not even Riorden has this particular information (although Riorden can guess what will happen).

This isn't a matter of opinion. It a matter that you and some others simply can't see the facts of the matter as dictated by the game itself.  I'm sorry if that pokes a bubble in how you see Anora, but there it is.

-Polaris

[tonnactus]

IanPolaris wrote...


a.  She unlike her father believes the blight is real and Grey Wardens are needed.  She wants the throne so bad she can taste it, but a throne over a blighted land destroyed by darkspawn (unsprisingly) doesn't appeal to her. 

What reason Anora should have to believe that two grey wardens could defeat the Blight?
She didnt know why Grey Wardens are needed at all. Not even the Grey Warden and Alistair know it before Riordan tell them why.

b.  She wants to be SURE that she keeps the throne no matter who wins.  Even with Alistair and you both captured, until you are executed (and Anora...correctly IMHO...knows that you haven't been yet), there is still a tiny chance that Eamon could still depose her.  She needs to make sure that Eamon is completely discredited before the landsmeet even starts.  What better way than to goad him into an unproved and illegal attack on Ft Drakon to free a convincted criminal(s).

For that reason, a forced confession from the warden/alistair that Arl Eamon was involved with the dead of Arl Howe would be more then enough(and he was,he even insisted to rescue Arnora when the warden mentioned this could be a trap).No need to tell the location.

Modifié par tonnactus, 22 décembre 2010 - 11:00 .

[IanPolaris]

tonnactus wrote...

IanPolaris wrote...


a.  She unlike her father believes the blight is real and Grey Wardens are needed.  She wants the throne so bad she can taste it, but a throne over a blighted land destroyed by darkspawn (unsprisingly) doesn't appeal to her. 

What reason Anora should have to believe that two grey wardens could defeat the Blight?
She didnt know why Grey Wardens are needed at all. Not even the Grey Warden and Alistair know it before Riordan tell them why.

It is common knowledge that only Grey Wardens can defeat the blight (which is why Loghain tries to challenge this over and over).  Anora herself believes that.  What's a secret is why Grey Wardens are needed to defeat the blight.

Also remember that you and Alistair are the only two Grey Wardens in Fereldan but there are many, many more Grey Wardens in Thedas.  Given that Anora believes that Grey Wardens are needed to defeat the blight, killing off  Fereldan's last two especially in light of the fact her (idiot) father has been openly hostile to the entire order is not a smart thing to do.

Even if it fails, Anora can tell the Grey Wardens with at least some justification, "I did what I could."

b.  She wants to be SURE that she keeps the throne no matter who wins.  Even with Alistair and you both captured, until you are executed (and Anora...correctly IMHO...knows that you haven't been yet), there is still a tiny chance that Eamon could still depose her.  She needs to make sure that Eamon is completely discredited before the landsmeet even starts.  What better way than to goad him into an unproved and illegal attack on Ft Drakon to free a convincted criminal(s).

For that reason, a forced confession from the warden/alistair that Arl Eamon was involved with the dead of Arl Howe would be more then enough(and he was,he even insisted to rescue Arnora when the warden mentioned this could be a trap).No need to tell the location.

If the Warden has Morrigan's ring she doesn't tell the location.  Morrigan does.  However, it's not like being taken to Ft Drakon is a great secret.  If Anora didn't tell Eamon, he would have remembered it himself or someone else would have told him.  Where Loghain keeps capital prisoners is not exactly a state secret.  In short it's a move that costs her nothing but potentially gives her everything.

-Polaris

Edit PS:  Honestly the fact that Ser Cauthrian takes you (and Alistair if present) alive is actually more evidence it was Anora and not Loghain that was involved in her presence to start with.  Loghain has already tried to quite openly assassinate both of you at least twice, and he knows (since you beat a Crow Assassination attempt and NOBODY escapes a Crow Assassination attempt) that you are too cunning, skilled, and dangerous to leave alive in any capacity.   In short, if Loghain were behind Ser Cauthrien being there, she would have executed you on the spot (esp since Loghain understand that your Warden is his primary and only real true threat) and Loghain being a commoner by birth and background would not feel the need for noble nicities.  Almost none of that applies to Anora.

Modifié par IanPolaris, 22 décembre 2010 - 11:11 .