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[tonnactus]

IanPolaris wrote...
It's the only possible way that Ser Cauthrian could be there within ten minutes of you entering the estate to arrest you for the murder of Howe and his men-at-arms....a fact the rest of his household doesn't even know yet.
-Polaris

That loghain could have some spies in howes estate and that they inform him when you break in(especially when not wearing the disguises) would be another possibility...
I dont think that loghain is such a fool to trust Howe by any way and that he make sure that this guy doesnt turn against him.

Modifié par tonnactus, 22 décembre 2010 - 11:11 .

[IanPolaris]

tonnactus wrote...
That loghain could have some spies in howes estate and that they inform him when you break in(especially when not wearing the disguises) would be another possibility...
I dont think that loghain is such a fool to trust Howe by any way and that he make sure that this guy doesnt turn against him.

That doesn't fly either.  If that were the case then there should be a difference in Ser Cauthrien's speech and arrival time if you wear disguises and if you do not.  If such spies existed and they penetrated your disguise, it would be in their best interest to raise the alarm to slow you down if nothing else and THEN send word back to Loghain....and remember that Arl Howe was Loghain's spymaster anyways.

In short, no, this is not a possibility.

-Polaris

[tonnactus]

IanPolaris wrote...
  If the mage is dead then so is Howe if the Warden still lives.  Anora via Erlina could easily have had Ser Cauthien in position. 
-Polaris

Why? You could throw Howe in one of his own prisons after defeating him.He is not necessarily killed by any way.( remember the fight with the carta hugs who just surrender)

[tonnactus]

IanPolaris wrote...


It is common knowledge that only Grey Wardens can defeat the blight (which is why Loghain tries to challenge this over and over). 

No,its not.Fairy tales,like some wardens with griffons.(Oghren,Sten ect. are dissapointed when meeting the warden)
Loghain for sure didnt believe it.
The last blight was 400 years ago. To be honest,its plain stupid that after such long time dwarfes and elves feel forced to fullfill those treaties.Especially the dwarfes,who deal with darkspawn every day and dont get help from surfacers.

If the Warden has Morrigan's ring she doesn't tell the location.  Morrigan does.  However, it's not like being taken to Ft Drakon is a great secret.
-Polaris

Only if you assume that this the only fort the wardens could be in the whole denerim/ferelden.Thats a bit simplistic for me.

Edit PS:  Honestly the fact that Ser Cauthrian takes you (and Alistair if present) alive is actually more evidence it was Anora and not Loghain that was involved in her presence to start with.  Loghain has already tried to quite openly assassinate both of you at least twice

That with the Crows was Howes idea.An idea that Loghain doesnt seem to like: "Just get it done" after a long pause where he didnt said anything.

Modifié par tonnactus, 23 décembre 2010 - 12:00 .

[tonnactus]

IanPolaris wrote...


That doesn't fly either.  If that were the case then there should be a difference in Ser Cauthrien's speech and arrival time if you wear disguises and if you do not.  If such spies existed and they penetrated your disguise, it would be in their best interest to raise the alarm to slow you down if nothing else and THEN send word back to Loghain....and remember that Arl Howe was Loghain's spymaster anyways.
In short, no, this is not a possibility.

-Polaris

To get rid of Howe(who wanted Orlesian support after realizing that things didnt went the way they should with the blight when i remeber it right) and blame it on the wardens.I am pretty sure that Loghain knew what Howes final plans were(to put himself on the throne i guess) and that he was too dangerous to stay alive.

[IanPolaris]

tonnactus wrote...

IanPolaris wrote...


It is common knowledge that only Grey Wardens can defeat the blight (which is why Loghain tries to challenge this over and over). 

No,its not.Fairy tales,like some wardens with griffons.(Oghren,Sten ect. are dissapointed when meeting the warden)
Loghain for sure didnt believe it.
The last blight was 400 years ago. To be honest,its plain stupid that after such long time dwarfes and elves feel forced to fullfill those treaties.Especially the dwarfes,who deal with darkspawn every day and dont get help from surfacers.

You are wrong.  Each time the blight ended it was the Grey Wardens that had to do it.  This is part of recorded history.   It is also part of recorded history that the first blight nearly destroyed the world until the Grey Wardens (althogh they weren't formally recognized as such until after Dumat was slain) finally figured out how to defeat him.  That took about a century, and in that time a thriving dwarven civilization was virtually annhilated.

Now, the status of the Grey Wardens and their exploits sure seem to be as much myth as fact, but Loghain's paranoia towards the Grey Wardens is shocking by the standards of Thedas.  In fact even the Antivian Crows intensely frowned upon taking any contract on any Grey Warden (Ignatio goes into this in great detail).

No.  Grey Wardens are needed to defeat the blight.  It is only in Ferelden that Grey Wardens are as distrusted as they are (generally by the noble classes) and that's a relic of the idiocy of Sophia Dryden some three hundred years prior.

Everyone knows that:

1.  To defeat the blight, one must defeat the (legendary) Arch-demon (fallen god) etc.
2.  Only Grey Wardens can do this.

Why this is so is a Grey Warden secret.

If the Warden has Morrigan's ring she doesn't tell the location.  Morrigan does.  However, it's not like being taken to Ft Drakon is a great secret.
-Polaris

Only if you assume that this the only fort the wardens could be in the whole denerim/ferelden.Thats a bit simplistic for me.

In the time frame (within an hour or so) it's as near a certainty to make little difference.

Edit PS:  Honestly the fact that Ser Cauthrian takes you (and Alistair if present) alive is actually more evidence it was Anora and not Loghain that was involved in her presence to start with.  Loghain has already tried to quite openly assassinate both of you at least twice

That with the Crows was Howes idea.An idea that Loghain doesnt seem to like: "Just get it done" after a long pause where he didnt said anything.

Loghain didn't seem to be bothered with the other assassin's at Orzammar's gate, and he certainly doesn't reject the services of the crows (and it's Loghain not Howe that hire them in the end as Zev will tell you).  In short, if Loghain had been behind Ser Cauthien's presence then your warden should be dead if arrested.  She has more than enough to order your summary execution then and there, and it's the smart play.  Loghain knows full well that the warden is too dangerous to take prisoner.

-Polaris

[IanPolaris]

tonnactus wrote...

To get rid of Howe(who wanted Orlesian support after realizing that things didnt went the way they should with the blight when i remeber it right) and blame it on the wardens.I am pretty sure that Loghain knew what Howes final plans were(to put himself on the throne i guess) and that he was too dangerous to stay alive.

There isn't a SHRED of evidence that Loghain wants to get rid of Howe either before the Landsmeet or in his dialog after you recruit him.  Not one shred. 

I may as well say little green aliens planted them.

-Polaris

Edit:  To expand on the above point, there is no incentive for the Warden to go to Howe's Estate and plenty of disincentive as Arl Eamon would be sure to remind them.  Arl Howe himself tells you (correctly!) when you first meet him, how disasterous this is for Arl Eamon's support in the landsmeet.  Your warden may want Arl Howe dead but so do a lot of other people.  That doesn't mean that Loghain has any way or any expectation that you will go there so again this falls apart UNLESS Anora was working with Loghain to insure it...in which case we are back to Anora betraying the warden.

Modifié par IanPolaris, 23 décembre 2010 - 12:37 .

[IanPolaris]

[double-post]

Modifié par IanPolaris, 23 décembre 2010 - 12:34 .

[IanPolaris]

Glaucon wrote...

Maybe it's time for a statement of what we have agreed.

The argument is as to whether Anora betrayed the Warden to Loghain resulting in the confrontation at Howe's estate.

Stop right there.  I am very much appalled and insulted.  FIrst of all no one appointed you moderator of this discussion and you don't have the right to say what we've agreed to or not.  Second of all, I DON'T agree with all of your statements since they are really just restatements of your position designed to lead the reader to the wrong conclusion by a technique I call "false equivalency".  You are setting side by side an unreasonable position and a reasonable one and giving them equal rhetorical weight and then saying, "but this (insert unreasonable) position then might be true".  Intelligence Design hucksters and Flat-Earthers use exactly the same technique.

Did you really think I would be dumb enough not to notice?  I will deconstruct and state my objections to each point of so-called agreement.  I will say what I do in fact agree with and what is your slant and opinion that you would like me to agree with but I won't.

[*]Anora is assuming that the Warden has killed Howe.

Not so fast there slick.  I only agree that Anora is assuming the Warden killed Howe in the same way that I assume that if I drop a hammer it hits the floor.  She specifically and artfully makes it impossible for you to do anything other than directly confront Howe and she knows in his own estate that Howe will stop at nothing to see the warden dead then and there.  As such it's a probability that is in reality indistinguishable from one that Howe is dead if the barrier goes down.

[*]The possibility that the Warden has not killed Howe is not excluded: Until confirmed.

I do not agree with this point except by the most technical defination of "not excluded".  This is where you are making a false equivalency.  Given what we know in the game (and what Anora knows) the realistic and reasonable probability that Howe survives any encounter with the warden in his own estate is essentially zero.

[*]Ser Cauthrien accuses the Warden of Howe's murder immediately and without confirmation.

See above.  If Ser Cauthrien knows the warden confronted Howe, and the Warden (obviously) is alive then Howe is almost certainly (within any reasonable approximation) dead.   The only way Ser Cauthrien could know that the Warden did in fact confront Howe is if Anora (likely via Erlina) told her.

[*]Only Erlina or Spies are in a position to pass information to an external authority.

Again the false equivalency.  You are putting equal rhetorical weight on the possibility of Erlina who we KNOW passes and can pass messages for the queen (and has done so) and hypothetical spies who should be reporting to Arl Howe and whom we have no evidence for.  Again, false equivalency.

[*]Loghain is only interested in the Warden and Alistair, anyone else present is released.
If I have forgotten anything then please let everyone know.  I understand that this argument has derailed/hijacked the thread but unless it is resolved it will most likely continue to rear its ugly head.

We agree that this is what Ser Cauthrien claims.  Not that I think Ser Cauthrien is a liar per se, but I do think she is an easy dupe.  If someone close to Loghain (read Anora) told Ser Cauthrien that Loghain was only interested in the wardens, Ser Cauthrien would take that as fact.  I am not saying that this is in fact what happened, but I am pointing it out to show that we can't take Ser Cauthrien's word about Loghain being only interested in the wardens as fact even if she personally might believe it to be so.

[IanPolaris]

[quote]Glaucon wrote...

[quote]IanPolaris wrote...
Stop right there.  I am very much appalled and insulted.  FIrst of all no one appointed you moderator of this discussion and you don't have the right to say what we've agreed to or not.  Second of all, I DON'T agree with all of your statements since they are really just restatements of your position designed to lead the reader to the wrong conclusion by a technique I call "false equivalency".  You are setting side by side an unreasonable position and a reasonable one and giving them equal rhetorical weight and then saying, "but this (insert unreasonable) position then might be true".  Intelligence Design hucksters and Flat-Earthers use exactly the same technique.

Did you really think I would be dumb enough not to notice?  I will deconstruct and state my objections to each point of so-called agreement.  I will say what I do in fact agree with and what is your slant and opinion that you would like me to agree with but I won't.[/quote]

That's a strange interpretation of my post.  It's not directed at you; it's for everyone.  Who's moderating anything?  I suggest that maybe it's time for a list of things that are agreed on for clarity's sake only .  That's an open invitation to anyone to come in and say yes or no.  Ease up on the paranoia. 

Just so that we are clear: I give zero weight to rhetoric.  I fully anticipated that you would engage with the list if that's what you meant by that last paragraph? 
[/quote]

Please just stop.  Of course it was directed at me.   Near as I can tell you have no interest in being 'impartial'.  If I "agreed" with your points in the way you listed them, I would in effect be agreeing with a position I think is flatly incorrect.  I've seen this stunt used by all sorts of  hucksters.  By not saying which is more or less reasonable, you are by implication giving both scenarios equal weight when they don't deserve it.  It's an old, old game and I refuse to fall for it.

[quote]
[quote]IanPolaris wrote...
Not so fast there slick.  I only agree that Anora is assuming the Warden killed Howe in the same way that I assume that if I drop a hammer it hits the floor.  She specifically and artfully makes it impossible for you to do anything other than directly confront Howe and she knows in his own estate that Howe will stop at nothing to see the warden dead then and there.  As such it's a probability that is in reality indistinguishable from one that Howe is dead if the barrier goes down.[/quote]

I'm pretty sure that it was demonstrated that those assumptions are not logically justifiable.  Again I shall point out that I am not arguing for or against Anora and am only interested in establishing the facts (where possible).  And I'm also certain that other than you using words such as: impossible, undeniable facts, wrong etc etc you have provided no evidence to support your theory other than supposition.
[/quote]

They aren't?  Really?  You think Howe has any intention of leaving the warden as anything other than a wet stain on his carpet if they encounter each other?  In the rare cases where surrender happens, either the other party doesn't actually initiate combat, or they have an advocate asking you to spare them, or they don't have a personal desire to kill you no matter what.  Not so Howe and certainly not in his own home.

Given that Howe would certainly kill the warden and given the warden's reputation of almost never leaving live enemies behind either, it's a probability approaching one that if Howe and the Warden encounter each other that one will die.  Do I really have to explain why to anyone that's actually played the game?  Really?

[quote]
[quote]IanPolaris wrote...
I do not agree with this point except by the most technical defination of "not excluded".  This is where you are making a false equivalency.  Given what we know in the game (and what Anora knows) the realistic and reasonable probability that Howe survives any encounter with the warden in his own estate is essentially zero.[/quote]

And I don't agree with your interpretation either (apparently, lists have some uses?).  We all know that Howe dies no matter what in the game.  But Anora cannot know that Howe dies, all she can do is make an educated guess.  She cannot establish with certainty that Howe is dead.  So if I take your argument to be true, namely that Anora is the mastermind behind this scenario, then she goes 'all in' on a guess which is odd to say the least given the likely outcome if she looses.
[/quote]

I don't need to see a hammer hit the floor after I've dropped it to know that it has.  It's exactly the same here.  Anora knows perfectly well that Howe will not leave the warden alive no matter what certainly.  Given the Warden's own reputation and antipathy towards Howe (whether you think it's deserved or not), it's absolutely and perfectly reasonble to assume that only one will survive if they meet in Howe's estate.  In fact it is unreasonable to think otherwise (it's almost impossible to capture alive a person who wants to kill you no matter what).

[quote]
[quote]IanPolaris wrote...
See above.  If Ser Cauthrien knows the warden confronted Howe, and the Warden (obviously) is alive then Howe is almost certainly (within any reasonable approximation) dead.   The only way Ser Cauthrien could know that the Warden did in fact confront Howe is if Anora (likely via Erlina) told her.[/quote]

If is a big word (that's an expression where I come from).  Again it is not certain that Howe is dead.  Ser Cauthrien is either assuming or blindly following orders.
[/quote]

Right and it's this "If" that destroys any other possible interpretation except an Anora betrayal.  The only way that Ser Cauthrien could reasonably make the deduction she has (that you murdered Arl Howe) is if she knows you actually encountered him in his estate and there is only one way she could know this:  Arnora told her.  Period.

[quote]
[quote]IanPolaris wrote...
Again the false equivalency.  You are putting equal rhetorical weight on the possibility of Erlina who we KNOW passes and can pass messages for the queen (and has done so) and hypothetical spies who should be reporting to Arl Howe and whom we have no evidence for.  Again, false equivalency.[/quote]

No, I am stating that people have stated only two feasible candidates to pass information.  Nothing else.  No equivalence just what people have said in this thread.  People like you for instance:
[/quote]

By presenting them the way you have, you have given them equal weight.  They are not equally reasonable.  There isn't a SHRED of evidence or even implication that Loghain suddenly woke up on the wrong side of the Palace bed (or was mind controlled by aliens) and suddenly wanted Howe dead and somehow knew that the Wardens would assault Howe's place all on his own.

This is an unreasonable theory because it requires too many extraordinary things to be true that we have absolutely no evidence for.  While not strictly a formal philosophic proof, we need to be guided by Ocaam's razor here.

[quote]
[quote]IanPolaris wrote...
That leaves only two possible sources of information for Ser Cauthrien: 

1. A Loghain tail that somehow doesn't report to his spymaster (unlikely but remotely possible)
2. Anora via Erlina tells her.

Of the two, only option 2 permits Ser Cauthrien to know that you in fact murdered Arl Howe.[/quote]
[/quote]

This only discusses the timing not the information flow. 

[quote]
[quote]IanPolaris wrote...
We agree that this is what Ser Cauthrien claims.  Not that I think Ser Cauthrien is a liar per se, but I do think she is an easy dupe.  If someone close to Loghain (read Anora) told Ser Cauthrien that Loghain was only interested in the wardens, Ser Cauthrien would take that as fact.  I am not saying that this is in fact what happened, but I am pointing it out to show that we can't take Ser Cauthrien's word about Loghain being only interested in the wardens as fact even if she personally might believe it to be so.[/quote]

It's not only what she claims it is what happens.

So basically you are not prepared to agree to anything other than your interpretation of the scenario?  Anything else is: Absolutely False, Just plain wrong, doesn't fly, not a possibility, not so, False or any of the other oh so charming put downs you use.

And all the while you point to an absence of evidence for any other arguments while offering nothing but supposition and probability to support your own claim.  Try holding yourself to the same standard that you are demanding from everyone else.  I actually think that you are right to demand evidence by the way, but you must at least agree that you should be subject to the same requirement?[/quote]

Edit Insert:  As for Loghain caring only for the warden that is not what happens.  Not precisely.  What happens is that Ser Cauthrien lets everyone else go (even though they are obvious accessories!) because she assumes that Loghain cares only about the Wardens.  We are given no insight into what Loghain wants or doesn't want at all...only what Ser Cauthrien thinks he wants (and that might not be the same thing).  Why not?  If someone that Ser Cauthrien trusted completely and was close to Loghain told her what Loghain wanted (read Anora), Ser Cauthrien would almost certainly take it as the truth.  Ser Cathrien strikes me as an easy Dupe (both in game and from her codex entries).

I am putting myself under the same standards and I have supplied evidence.  I grant it's negatifve evidence but negative evidence is still evidence.  The reason I am saying that the other interpretations are wrong is because they are....and if seem less than charming at this point, I have little respect for self-deception on this issue.  Unless you resort to unreasonable assumptions (which include the bad writing excuse) the only way you can explain both Ser Cauthrien's timing AND her information (even the assumption that you had to encounter Arl Howe to justify the murder charge STILL fingers Anora and only Anora has her source of information).

I really don't understand how any reasonable person can draw any other conclusion.  That doesn't automatically make Anora a bad person, but it very much puts her in a much darker light than many want to assume.  She is hardly a damsel in distress.

-Polaris

Modifié par IanPolaris, 23 décembre 2010 - 07:39 .

[Addai]

IanPolaris wrote...

mousestalker wrote...
It doesn't take nearly that long to get back to Anora. It takes my wardens maybe thirty seconds, and that's if they stop to loot Howe and his lads. 

Get a better PC and you'll never be betrayed by Anora.

QED.

It takes at least 10 mins or so to go down into the Dungeon and do the dirty, and it also takes only seconds to send a signal if everyone is prepositioned. (And Anora might send Erlina to Ser Cauthrien right after you leave since either Howe dies or you do and either way Ser Cauthrien will be needed.)

In short, your argument fails.  QED.

-Polaris

  (husband)

As I said, when I posted this thread, I think there's some good probability Occam's razor wise that Anora arrainged the Ser Cauthrien incident...   but there are some problems realistically speaking if we are going to talk about that.

But a few points....

1) I wouldn't necesarilly expect realism from a game.   Many, many events in games do not happen in realistic time tables, or realistically in general.   I've had police magically spawn the moment the character breaks the law, or they are magically informed like in Oblivion the moment you have too many karma points and instanteously know you have stolen merchandise on your person without even searching you.    So the Ser Cauthrien incident I see as fitting into that.



2) I know from working security in real life that it is extremely difficult to hit a moving target.   Even with modern communications, security alarms, modern transportation etc. it's really really tough to actually intercept a person that is on the move.    And I don't mean that just in general, but even when talking about scenario where the conditions are ideal.   I've had to notify people to check into something that was only a block away or even the same building and I was still not able to pull it off.   If that is true, using instantaneous communication of radios, modern security systems and cameras etc. and cars, how much more true for someone who is going to pass a message by word of mouth who is traveling on foot?



3) While Occam's razor may lead to the conclusion that Anora finked or set the events up one can not completely rule out other fantasy role playing means especially scrying.


I tend to see the strongest evidence against Anora as coming from a "Lie to Me" analysis of her testimony.

www.youtube.com/watch

Modifié par Addai67, 23 décembre 2010 - 09:38 .

[Addai]

Glaucon wrote...

@Addai67 (Husband)

Let me know if you have a problem with the list I produced, if you do I'll strike it out and issue an apology.

(husband) 

Will do, I don't think I've gotten there yet.   It takes me so long editting out my numerous typos...

Modifié par Addai67, 23 décembre 2010 - 09:40 .

[Addai]

KnightofPhoenix wrote...

The fact is, it's sloppy writing.

My canon surrendered, in a calculated risk because:
a- It's not in Loghain's interest to kill the Warden right before the Landsmeet, it would make him look bad (that's the only explanation as to why Cauthrien does not kill you when she beats you that I can think of).
b- I "pretended" to negotiate with Cauthrien my surrender in exchange for the safety of companions, avoiding an unnecessary fight. That's something that was missing in the game but I don't really care, all options in that scenario were not that smart and I'd prefer to imagine things that ought to have been there but aren't.
c- I have Morrigan's ring and she knows where I would be taken, thus capable of mounting a rescue.

So, I find surrendering to Cauthrien an acceptable option, at least due to the bad writing of the entire scenario.

(husband)

I like that KOP!   A different approach then what I take, but very interesting.

[Addai]

KnightofPhoenix wrote...

Wulfram wrote...

KnightofPhoenix wrote...

But she doesn't, even when you are defenseless and beaten. For a reason, which is either because Loghain would rather not kill you, or becaues of ****ty writing.

The guard in Fort Drakon says you'll get plenty of fresh air at the gallows tomorrow, FWIW.

In a "legal" execution. Otherwise, I see no point at all for Cauthrien not to kill you when she had the chance. Makes no sense whatsoever and the only explanation I can thinlk of is that Loghain would rather not murder you without some semblance of legality (even if it might be legal to just kill you there anyways).

In reality, it's just an excuse to have the breakout quest.

(husband)

Not necesarily bad writing.   I actually see it as Ser Cauthrien like many players is "taking the path of least resistance" and would like to get a win without actually having to shed blood.   She also offers it as a matter of old fashioned, chivalry.    My characters don't really take her up n the offer because at that time Loghain and her do not look very honorable and trustworthy.   But that is I think part of the motivation besides looking good for the landsmeet.

[tonnactus]

@ Ian Polaris

Cauthrien for sure is more loyal to Loghain then Anora.And if Loghain think that the Warden is too dangerous to be kept alive,she would simply kill the warden no matter what Anora want.
Also,until you proove your "worth",the Crows thought that Loghain was the right man to stop the Blight
(Its not in the Crows interest that the Archdemon wins.
Warden: Then why try to kill me.
Ignacio: We thought that Loghain was the right man for the job.Until we meet you)
How Loghain could be right man for the job when it is a Historical fact that only Wardens could stop an Archdemon?


Which show
that it isnt indeed a fact that Grey Wardens are needed at all.

Modifié par tonnactus, 23 décembre 2010 - 10:59 .

[Addai]

Sabariel wrote...

Loghain has spies watching Eamon's estate. Spies that follow you when you leave said estate (and since you walk out the front door it wouldn't be hard for them to see when you leave). They follow you to Howe's estate. They, naturally, suspect trouble. They send a runner to fetch Cauthrien. Cauthrien enters the estate, sees the dead soldiers strewn about, and makes the logical assumption that gee... maybe Howe is dead too.

"Anora and Cauthrien were in cahoots" is not the only explanation.

 (husband)

There's still the problem of proclaiming the murder of Howe.   I thought the same explanation once, but the phraseology and specificity of the charge is a problem.    If you were given a more general charge, like burglary, attempted murder (because you also threatened Howe in public) that would make more sense.

So right now I got to go with bad writing or a mage watching you in a crystal ball....  



One big problem in every scenario is one of timing.   It not just that you need to have spies, but you really need to have Ser Cauthrien herself in a stake out.   And not just in a stake out but she needs a little extra help with some modern inventions like security cameras of have her own scrying mage handy.    Because not only do you have to avoid being too late and missing the mark, but being too early and alerting the mark is also a problem....     And as I said before, even with modern inventions like radios, cameras, its really tough to hit a moving target.    But game designers that want some drama just hand wave away such problems if it makes for a good story and a fun game.

Modifié par Addai67, 23 décembre 2010 - 11:15 .

[Addai]

IanPolaris wrote...

Glaucon wrote...

@IanPolaris

So how does Anora know, with certainty, that our Warden has killed Howe? 

Anora is still locked in her cell when Howe is cut down (I don't think calling it murder is correct either by the way), so she must make an assumption too. You state that the only way Cauthrien can know that Howe is dead is that Anora, via Erlina, has notified Cauthrien, except Anora is locked up when the deed is done and the timing between the warden setting Anora free and the confrontation with Cauthrien is too short (under 60 seconds) to facilitate any action by Anora.

So you allow Anora to assume something and arrive at a conclusion but you deny this ability to any other party. That isn't consistent.

I have answered this already but I will again.  Anora knows you murdered (I agree the proper verb really should be killed but I digress) Howe in the same way if you drop a hammer off a cliff, you don't have to see it fall to know it hit the ground.

Unlike everybody else that's still alive in the game, she knows that you had to directly confront Howe and his bodyguards and you lived, and she knows that Howe certainly doesn't intend to let you live if you give him half an excuse to kill you (and just being in his estate is all the excuse he needs).  Thus Anora knows you killed Howe with a probability that is essentially indistinguishable from one.

Let me address some other points:

Ser Cauthrien is looking right at the queen when she makes her arrest order.  You don't know whether Ser Cauthrien knows the queen is there or not.  It is worth noting that if you defeat Ser Cauthrien, Loghain accuses you of murdering the Queen's guards.........also if Ser Cauthrien didn't know, then that fails to explain why Anora feels comfortable enough backstabbing you if you reveal her (and even she admits it's a backstab later when she says in such a case that they got off on the wrong foot in Howe's estate).  In short, there isn't any evidence that Ser Cauthrien doesn't know the queen is there or not there.

 -Polaris

(husband)

It's reasonable to conclude she doesn't know based on her general characterization in the game.   She doesn't have any bard acting training that we know of.   She is portrayed as a "straight up" person that pretty much speaks her mind and tells you what she thinks.   

Not to mention even for characters that are "manipulative" and use deception, Anora especially they are not such good liars when it comes to masking their body language.   If Anora is considered a "bard" but has trouble covering up her nervous fidgiting, I would cast even more doubts on Cauthrien putting up a convincing show of surprise.      So Occa'm's razor can also cut in the other direction....

Modifié par Addai67, 23 décembre 2010 - 12:12 .

[Addai]

Not so.  Anora could have Ser Cauthrien prepped and ready to go (for
days if need be) and wouldn't even have to do so directly (Erlina could
do this).  Furthermore it would only take seconds for Erlina to send a
prearranged signal or even tell Ser Cauthrien directly if she were
nearby (which she would be in this case).

At no point do I appeal to anything other than reasonable in-game elements unlike everyone else.


(husband)


That is something I've thought of myself but is extremely unlikely for a number of reasons.

1) Cauthrien works directly for Loghain and not her.


2) As Loghain's second I image she has lots of other things to do then besides waiting to ambush the warden.


3) And then there is the whole stake out thing itself.   Does anybody have any idea how comfortable it would be to wear plate mail, 24 x7 waiting to get an emergency call?    Now wearing armor all the time, is almost ubiquitious role playing game trope but still...


4) Even if you discount #3, constant waiting would be very draining in itself and would lessen battle readiness later on from exhaustion.


5) However if you maintain a high state of readiness and take breaks, while not being exhausted your response time will be cut down...


6) Not to mention there is the chance of plan failure.   Unless you have an plant on the inside or a magic scrying device how would you know for sure that player killed Howe?    There that saying that "No plan survives contact with the enemy."

Even if you believe the player is vastly more powerful then Howe and likely to win and make the murder plan stick there all kinds of ways that the plan could go awry such as: Howe overhears fighting down the corridor and decides "discreation is the better part of valor" and escapes leaving the PC to fight his minions and hopefully get mortally wounded.

And of course wrongly accusing the player of murder, would itself be a tell that Anora might be behind it etc.

[Addai]

Glaucon wrote...

Maybe it's time for a statement of what we have agreed.

The argument is as to whether Anora betrayed the Warden to Loghain resulting in the confrontation at Howe's estate.

• Anora is assuming that the Warden has killed Howe.
  
  
• The possibility that the Warden has not killed Howe is not excluded: Until confirmed.
  
  
• Ser Cauthrien accuses the Warden of Howe's murder immediately and without confirmation.
  
  
• Only Erlina or Spies are in a position to pass information to an external authority.
  
  
• Loghain is only interested in the Warden and Alistair, anyone else present is released.

If I have forgotten anything then please let everyone know.  I understand that this argument has derailed/hijacked the thread but unless it is resolved it will most likely continue to rear its ugly head.

 (husband)

That all seems possible to me but it does make me think why not have made it burglary and attempted murder, which is what it exactly is until Howe death is officially confirmed?  


Probably the best thing in validating the theory is that as KOP related in another thread, it looks like Cauthrien is acting on her own when it comes to trying to block the player from the Landmeet.   And when she first met Loghain she attempted to "rescue him" from the brigands he was fighting before she learned his identity.   She seems to be a person that acts on impulse and with that often comes a rush to judgement.

Modifié par Addai67, 24 décembre 2010 - 01:15 .