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[Ariella]

Axterix wrote...

Ariella wrote...

Still doesn't make sense. Orlais' Empress has made peace, and as I said the Wardens would not allow themselves to be used in such a manner, no matter what Loghain things. Plus there's the fact that Maric TOLD Loghain that there would be a Blight. Loghain had known this since the Wardens had come back to Fereldan that a Blight was coming, but because the word came from Flemeth, Loghain didn't want to believe (epsecially due to her little prophecy that he'd betray Maric time and again, each time worse than the last....)

Quite frankly, if Orlais wanted to stick around, the Wardens couldn't do much about it.  Not exactly their business to interfere once the Blight is gone.  And, while there might be a Blight, that doesn't mean that this is the Blight.  Many people believed this was a false Blight, Loghain amongst them.

Actually there's probably a lot that the Wardens could do, considering if you talk to Riaordan, the troops they were bringing were WARDEN support troops (ie troops promised to the Wardens in cases of Blight). The Wardens were in command, and I'm willing to bet they'd put a halt to any attempts to set up for invasion or occupations afterward.

And there's absolutely no proof that Orlais was even considering anything of the kind. She hadn't stirred against Fereldan for about 20 years, relations were actually good, and if the army had defeated the darkspawn at Ostagar in the first place there'd have been no NEED for Orlais' Grey Wardens to come, so Loghain had no reason except his paranoia to act against the king at Ostagar.

It doesn't change what happened 30 years ago though.  And there's a lot of people from that generation that aren't going to forgive Orlais.  The occupation was that brutal.  And what we can learn of the Orlesians in game shows that their Chevaliers still are not the people you want around.  Really, Cailan inviting the Orlesians in was a pretty stupid thing to do, given how many of his people felt.

Actually, it was the only logical thing he could do. The Wardens of Orlais were the only ones would could respond quickly enough to Fereldan's need. The Free Marches would have had to sail with men and horses (something horses don't exactly like) and the other powers were equally as far. Orlais was the only logical place to draw Wardens from.

And the army had already defeated the Darkspawn three times  After each defeat, the Darkspawn came back with greater numbers.  A fourth victory would not have been a guarenteed end of the Darkspawn.  A fifth battle though, might well have meant an end to the Ferelden army.  The problem though is that Cailan wanted his glory.  He didn't want to wait for more troops.  And the only reason he brought up waiting for the Orlesian troops is because he knows how Loghain feels about that.

It also depends a lot on what actually happened during that fourth battle.  We know the signal wasn't lit on time.  And when it was lit, Loghain ordered the retreat.  It is possible that by that point, the battle is lost, that it wasn't all preplanned.  But what really happened?  What was the actual state of the battle?  These things, we don't know.  The forthcoming DLC might shed some light on the matter.  But for now, all we know is darkspawn invaded the tower, and so the signal was not lit on time and, when it was lit, Loghain ordered a retreat.

Actually, we're told in the game by Oswyn that Loghain withdrew before the army was overwhelmed, which is the reason why Osywyn of Dragon's Peak was a "guest" in Howe's dungeon, along with Rexel. Wynne too witnessed the battle from beginning to end and was the one who told Irving that Loghain betrayed them on the field. So we KNOW what the actual state of the battle was, and we also know that Loghain tried very hard to insure someone loyal to him was lighting that beacon (either one of his own people or Uldred also volunteered, only to be shot down by the Grand Cleric).

Now, Howe's actions would seem to indicate that it was pre-planned, unless he had some other trick up his sleeve to insure he got away with wiping out the Couslands.  But knowing Howe, he might well have.  Some people would also the Aemon's poisoning indicates this as well, but a mage origin PC would have left the tower at about the same time as Jowan, traveling directly to the battle site.  Which would mean Jowan would have had to have been captured by Templars, brought to the army, and then used by Loghain, who conveniently had poisons around, all without getting advice from Howe.  Unlikely.  The poisoning of Aemon most likely happened after the battle, once Loghain got back to the capital and had to plan to deal with the fall out, the time during which the player was recuperating in Flemeth's hut.

But, yes, Loghain's paranoia is responsible for a large part of his actions.  That said, just because you're paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't after you.

It doesn't make him anymore justified or correct. As I said, Loghain had no real proof that Orlais was going to attempt another invasion. He had exagerated paranoia based on his own fears of Orlais and his fear of Flemeth's prophecy. The fact that if this had just been a large darkspawn incursion that could have been finished at Ostagar like Calian planned (remember he too had doubts it was really a Blight and says so), the Wardens of Orlais and their support troops would not be needed. And if Orlais tried to invade under the pretext of "helping" after the incursion was routed, the Grey Wardens would pretty much have their credability destroyed, thus destroying any chance of routing the next Blight.

We have as much proof of Orlais hostile intentions as we do that the Darkspawn threat could have been ended at Ostagar.  That being essentially zero. 

And the Grey Wardens are not a bunch of super policemen.  They do not have the forces or power to stop a powerful nation like Orlais from doing whatever it feels like.  They might not like it, it might upset them greatly, but there simply aren't that many wardens.

They were given a great many powers after the first Blight, and we don't know what all of them are. It's possible that they have ways of making their displeasure known, and hurting the country who causes them such. Also consider the fact that Orlais was willing to commit enough such troops to defend a former enemy. If Fereldan actually did fall to a Blight, Orlais was next, so it was in their self-interest to support the Wardens and NOT risk anything that would rock the boat, including attempting another occupation.

Plus, if Orlais wanted to re-occupy Fereldan, why wait for such a risky pretext? There are a hell of a lot of easier ways to subvert a nation you're at peace with than one you're at war with.

Anyway, I don't think you'll find anyone arguing that Loghain isn't paranoid.  But, if you look at it from his point of view, that Orlais really is a threat that must be kept out, that the Blight was a false Blight and he, military super star that he is, could deal with it, then his actions make sense.  It isn't he that betrayed the country, but Cailan.  And everything he did, while it might be amoral, was done for Ferelden's best interest.

He betrayed his King, thus his country and his own honor. Rationalize that however you like, but setting Cailan up to die, wasn't in Fereldan's best interest, and even the dumbest bann in the Landsmeet would have seen that. And even Cailan wasn't sure this was a true Blight, and thus beating the horde back at Ostagar wouldn't have cost anything in terms of Orlais' arrival. If Mr. Military super star, was truly thinking, rather than acting out of fear, the idea of crushing the horde in detail then telling Orlais to go suck eggs should have appealed to them. And if I may point out, Cailan wasn't waiting for Orlais to get their and win the battle for him, but was trusting to totally Fereldan resources, so Loghain slit his own throat by killing not only his king, but the essense of Fereldan, its men and women.  

[robertthebard]

celdoloth wrote...

To be honest, considering a few things, Loghain's actions make more sense.

First, we have to assume that he does not believe this is a true blight. The Archdemon was very intelligent in not revealing himself too soon. With no Archdemon to see, unlike the past 4 Blights where the Archdemon revealed itself rather soon, most people were suspecting (see wishful thinking), that this was not a Blight.

If this is not a true Blight, then it is not that great of a threat, and Orlais would be a greater threat.

However, consider this: Would you rather be a slave or die? Some would rather be a slave, but this very nation sacrificed many lives in order to secure freedom, and the rule of Britain was not nearly as oppressive as Orlais'.

If Loghain is convinced that Orlais was trying to regain control, he might have considered the Blight's threat, and determined that he would do anything, sacrifice anything, in order to prevent it. Even if that meant that Ferelden burned around him, he could rest easy in knowing that its people would not suffer what his parents did: his father watching his mother get raped and murdered.

Loghain's assumptions about the evil of Orlais are exaggerated, but in his mind, he did the only thing he could.

The greater threat is the army that is actively marching through your country leaving devastation and death behind it, rather than an imagined threat.  Regardless of whether this is a blight or not, there is a rather large darkspawn army taking over Ferelden, and Loghain's action is to pull all the available troops he has away from that army.  Where were the Bann's troops that should have been defending Lothering?  Marching North to fight in Loghain's Civil War.  This is information that you can glean in Lothering, after you get there.

So, in order to prevent Orlais from invading, his strategy is to leave Ferelden a blighted, wasted country so that nobody would want it?  Because if his plan at Ostagar had been successful, and all the Wardens had indeed died, then that's what would have been accomplished.  Perhaps, as Flemeth suggests, he thinks he can outmaneuver the darkspawn, but he never attempts to engage them, even to slow them down.  Instead, he continues to delude himself into believing that Orlais is the greater threat, despite the fact that the army actively ravaging his lands is not Orlesian, but is indeed darkspawn.  At this point, he goes beyond simply trying to save his country, since he's really not doing anything to save it.  The better option, if he were indeed thinking of Ferelden first would have been to allow Anora to rule, and take command of the armies.  Howe says it best, "It appears it will be civil war after all, despite the darkspawn, pity".  He's not thinking of Ferelden any more, he's thinking of himself.

At the Landsmeet, when the darkspawn threat is very evident throughout Ferelden, Loghain still wants to know how Orlais will take over Ferelden.  Can we say that he was blind to what was happening in Ferelden then?  Whether it was a true blight or not at that point is really irrelevant to the fact that fully half of Ferelden is crawling with darkspawn, if not more.  Yet, Orlais it the threat.  The dialog answer that gains you the most points in the Landsmeet at that point is the persuade check that the darkspawn are the true threat.  Note, it doesn't say blight, but darkspawn.  There is no way that Loghain's intelligence forces can't tell him that this is true, and he still tries to sweep that under the rug.  He is well and truly delusional, and frankly, the one part I don't get is how, as somebody pointed out previously, simply beating him in a duel snaps him out of it.  I can, however, see how losing his head and having the blood splatter all over Anora would...

[Tatooine92]

robertthebard wrote...

He is well and truly delusional, and frankly, the one part I don't get is how, as somebody pointed out previously, simply beating him in a duel snaps him out of it.  I can, however, see how losing his head and having the blood splatter all over Anora would...

And yet, having blood splatter across Anora and ten other people somehow didn't snap HER out of anything.  Perhaps this is for another thread, but I'm seeing a huge conspiracy theory with her and Loghain.  And by "conspiracy theory," I mean "she helped plan Cailan's death and all her 'poor me I'm a widow' was an act because she just lusted after the throne."  Anora is very conniving, very intelligent... and a very, very good actress.  Please see how she was planning on executing Alistair to secure her little reign, especially since she's mentioned as having been the "true" ruler for five years.  Still.  You'd think she would willingly step aside at the presence of a true heir (unless, y'know, elected queen at the Landsmeet), but she doesn't.  Instead, she fights to keep the throne all to herself.  Power-hungry much?  It's either "like father like daughter" or "like daughter like father."

[robertthebard]

Tatooine92 wrote...

robertthebard wrote...

He is well and truly delusional, and frankly, the one part I don't get is how, as somebody pointed out previously, simply beating him in a duel snaps him out of it.  I can, however, see how losing his head and having the blood splatter all over Anora would...

And yet, having blood splatter across Anora and ten other people somehow didn't snap HER out of anything.  Perhaps this is for another thread, but I'm seeing a huge conspiracy theory with her and Loghain.  And by "conspiracy theory," I mean "she helped plan Cailan's death and all her 'poor me I'm a widow' was an act because she just lusted after the throne."  Anora is very conniving, very intelligent... and a very, very good actress.  Please see how she was planning on executing Alistair to secure her little reign, especially since she's mentioned as having been the "true" ruler for five years.  Still.  You'd think she would willingly step aside at the presence of a true heir (unless, y'know, elected queen at the Landsmeet), but she doesn't.  Instead, she fights to keep the throne all to herself.  Power-hungry much?  It's either "like father like daughter" or "like daughter like father."

Prior to Calin's death, according to everything we know, she actually had the throne in all but name anyway.  She did the ruling, while Cailin was more of a PR guy.  The only real flaw I see with this theory initially is that Anora loses the throne to her father when he returns from Ostagar.  Given her intelligence, which is obvious, and how much she wants to keep the throne, she's not likely to jeopardize her position by going into that kind of arrangement.

[Tatooine92]

Unless the "losing" of the throne was also an act. I can't ever be sure with her, not after "I'll give you my support!" followed swiftly by "These Wardens are liars and traitors!" I suppose that *could* be some sort of desperation, but I doubt it. She strikes me as being too calculated to get overly desperate.

[Ulicus]

By the time the Landsmeet comes around, Loghain DOES think the Blight is the main threat ("we will defeat even the Blight itself!"), even if he is using fear of Orlesian occupation to try and get the nobility to back his "we can go it alone" stance.

[Skadi_the_Evil_Elf]

KnightofPhoenix wrote...

He was "possessed" in some way. By Howe.

Possesed by Howe?me thinks not. If Loghain was possesed by anything, it was his own twisted paranoia and seroius loss of grips with reality.

He hates Orlais and doesn't trust them? Fine. He has very good reasons for feeling this way. I certainly would not trust Orlais in normal cicumstances. However, these are far from normal circumstances.

So he doesn't want orlesians in Ferelden. Fair enough. The only reason Orlesians might come to Ferelden are because the king and Duncan will let them in. So, you get rid of the King and grey wardens. Simple enough, really with half a brain. You can have the king assasinated and set it up to look like the Grey Wardens did it. A good, manipulative advisor could help him there. Thus, you get rid of your two enemies WITHOUT wiping out half of your country's forces and unleashing a horde of bloodthirsty monsters to ravage and completely annihilate everything they touch, thus weakening and destroying your own people.  (An easy way of setting this up is spreading rumors, and eventually coming up with evidence that the Grey wardens were cozying up to the king so they could replace him with their own heir, Alistair, and take over the throne and rule from behind the scenes. With enough innuendos, half truths, and fabricated evidence, you could get the right people to buy it, hook, line, and sinker.)

But Loghain didn't. He chose a seriously chicken-**** lazy option that basically cost him and everyone else far more than was necessary. And Howe really wasn't in the picture much at this point, either. They had been talking, certainly. Which makes me question Loghain's grip on reality even more. After all, the Howe family, during the occupation, were originally supporters of the orlesians and only turned through pressure and circumstance. Why would he trust Howe now, given family history?

Loghain was living in the past and behaved more like a paranoid schitzo military dictator in the making than a war hero, even to the point of virtually staging a bloody coup and bullying his subjects into submission, using questionable methods to secure rule or instil loyalty, ect.

Howe did not make him do all that. If so, then Loghain is a mental midget and should be disregarded for being so easily manipulated and controled. Either prospect makes him a man I definitely do not want anywhere near sharp objects, poisonous substances, or thrones.

[Ulicus]

Loghain could have just assassinated the king and made it look like the Grey Wardens did it, sure, except he didn't want to kill Cailan. Was he willing to let Cailan die once the guy, despite his best efforts, threw himself into the thick of things? Sure. That's not quite the same thing, though.

[Alternategray]

I think the difference between the Loghain of the books and the game is brought about by two things: fame and pride. I don't think he was paranoid; I think he began to believe in his own legend. He began to believe that he was infallible. Fame/power twisting people until there's nothing recognizable left of their old personas is one of the oldest stories in the book, so to speak.



Without Maric's presence to give him a reality check every now and then, Loghain changes dramatically. In the books, the two counter each other, balance each other. In the game, we get to see who Loghain would become without that balance, and twisted by power and fame.

[Skadi_the_Evil_Elf]

Ulicus wrote...

Loghain could have just assassinated the king and made it look like the Grey Wardens did it, sure, except he didn't want to kill Cailan. Was he willing to let Cailan die once the guy, despite his best efforts, threw himself into the thick of things? Sure. That's not quite the same thing, though.

He didn't want to kill Cailain? Could have fooled me. Whether he did the deed himself, or by proxy, or by simply abandoning him to his fate, Loghain pretty much made his intent clear. the problem being he took alot of lives with him in the process.

The fact is that he willingly took action that resulted in the king's death, knowing damned well the king, as well as others, were also gonna end up quite dead.

In my mind, he may as well have been the ogre that did the job. His intetions were clear.

Given Loghain's paranoia of the orlesians, it is not a stretch to consider the possibility that one way or another, Loghain would have offed the king for consorting with who he thought were the enemy if that prevented Orlesians on Ferelden soil. He is obsessed and hateful enough to do it.

[robertthebard]

Skadi_the_Evil_Elf wrote...

Ulicus wrote...

Loghain could have just assassinated the king and made it look like the Grey Wardens did it, sure, except he didn't want to kill Cailan. Was he willing to let Cailan die once the guy, despite his best efforts, threw himself into the thick of things? Sure. That's not quite the same thing, though.

He didn't want to kill Cailain? Could have fooled me. Whether he did the deed himself, or by proxy, or by simply abandoning him to his fate, Loghain pretty much made his intent clear. the problem being he took alot of lives with him in the process.

The fact is that he willingly took action that resulted in the king's death, knowing damned well the king, as well as others, were also gonna end up quite dead.

In my mind, he may as well have been the ogre that did the job. His intetions were clear.

Given Loghain's paranoia of the orlesians, it is not a stretch to consider the possibility that one way or another, Loghain would have offed the king for consorting with who he thought were the enemy if that prevented Orlesians on Ferelden soil. He is obsessed and hateful enough to do it.

Of note here is that he turned the Orlesian forces back at the border.  He went behind Cailin's back and did this, since Cailin was still alive.  After this action, his path is pretty clear, even if I did want to believe that he really didn't intend, initially, for Cailin to die.  He surely can't let what might be viewed as treason get to Cailin's ears, so he made sure that Cailin would never know.  If this seems a bit inconsistent, we can look at the state of Loghain's mind to substantiate it.  He was very incosistent.  "I'm doing what's best for Ferelden by letting the darkspawn just march freely to the capital".  While it can be argued that they hadn't reached the capital yet, it surely wasn't because Loghain dedicated any effort to preventing it.  Instead, he was more worried about "bringing the nobles in line".

[Ulicus]

Skadi_the_Evil_Elf wrote...

He didn't want to kill Cailain? Could have fooled me. Whether he did the deed himself, or by proxy, or by simply abandoning him to his fate, Loghain pretty much made his intent clear. the problem being he took alot of lives with him in the process.

The fact is that he willingly took action that resulted in the king's death, knowing damned well the king, as well as others, were also gonna end up quite dead.

In my mind, he may as well have been the ogre that did the job. His intetions were clear.

Please reconcile what you're saying with Loghain's frequently expressed desire to keep Cailan away from the front lines and out of danger.  If he wanted to kill Cailan, why wasn't he pushing him out of the door? "

"Yes Cailan, go off and join the Grey Wardens at the front, I'll be right behind you. Mwahhahahaa. Everything is going as I have foreseen."

You're mistaking Loghain being willing to let Cailan die with Loghain wanting Cailan to die. Loghain didn't even want to fight the battle ("we need more men"). The King forced the issue when he made it a choice between fighting the battle then and there or allowing the Orlesians into Ferelden.

He fled the field because, regardless of whether he was right or not, he genuinely believed the battle to be unwinnable by that point and he was sticking to a promise Maric extracted from him thirty years previously. Was it a massive mistake? Yeah, I think so.

Was it done out of an actual desire to see Cailan dead? No way.

Robert the bard wrote...

Of note here is that he turned the Orlesian forces back at the
border.  He went behind Cailin's back and did this, since Cailin was
still alive.

Really? I don't remember this. As far as I recall, the Orlesians were only barred entry once Ostagar was over.

Modifié par Ulicus, 17 décembre 2009 - 06:18 .

[JosieJ]

celdoloth wrote...

Well, playing Devil's advocate, here is Loghain's perspective:

Where you say, "There is no proof Orlais was planning another invasion." Loghain would say, "There is no proof that they aren't." Call it paranoid, but I don't think any of us can speak from the same perspective as he can. None of us grew up under a tyranny. Very few, if any, can say that we watched our mother get raped. See a farmer whipped to death for no reason by a Chevalier. And now 200 Chevalier's want in to the country? Hell no.

So Loghain's reaction to 200 Chevaliers possibly entering the country was to get many times that number of Fereldans killed, both in the battle of Ostagar and afterward?  How was letting the country get overrun by darkspawn, Blight or no, going to help prevent Orlais from taking over if they'd wanted to?  What he did weakened the country--it'd be far easier for an intact Ferelden to defend itself against 200 Chevaliers than for a blight-ravaged Ferelden torn by civil war to defend itself from an Orlais that was hell-bent on taking over.  This decision doesn't scream "military genius" to me, it screams "irrational, delusional paranoid."  Although the above poster's point about Loghain believing his own hype is a good one.

[JaegerBane]

Ariella wrote...

He betrayed his King, thus his country and his own honor. Rationalize that however you like, but setting Cailan up to die, wasn't in Fereldan's best interest, and even the dumbest bann in the Landsmeet would have seen that. And even Cailan wasn't sure this was a true Blight, and thus beating the horde back at Ostagar wouldn't have cost anything in terms of Orlais' arrival. If Mr. Military super star, was truly thinking, rather than acting out of fear, the idea of crushing the horde in detail then telling Orlais to go suck eggs should have appealed to them. And if I may point out, Cailan wasn't waiting for Orlais to get their and win the battle for him, but was trusting to totally Fereldan resources, so Loghain slit his own throat by killing not only his king, but the essense of Fereldan, its men and women.  

Perfectly put. Ultimately whatever reason Loghain had for his actions, it wasn't good enough, as his idiocy caused almost as much damage to Ferelden as the Blight itself caused. His whole plan of trying to usurp the throne while the kingdom is under attack was as an act of spectacular stupidity.

[Dark83]

Ulicus wrote...

Please reconcile what you're saying with Loghain's frequently expressed desire to keep Cailan away from the front lines and out of danger.  If he wanted to kill Cailan, why wasn't he pushing him out of the door? "

"Yes Cailan, go off and join the Grey Wardens at the front, I'll be right behind you. Mwahhahahaa. Everything is going as I have foreseen."

Because he's not that stupid? You'd have to be an idiot to think that way.

Cailan is going to with the Grey Wardens regardless, because his head is full of glory and fluff. Surely nobody disputes this. Knowing this, telling him to be at the front of your battle plan, leaving him to die, and then siezing his throne is a hell of a lot more suspisious than "Oh, he didn't listen to me."

Ulicus wrote...

Robert the bard wrote...

Of note here is that he turned the Orlesian forces back at the border.  He went behind Cailin's back and did this, since Cailin was still alive.

Really? I don't remember this. As far as I recall, the Orlesians were only barred entry once Ostagar was over.

The Orlesians were on the way to join the battle at Ostagar. Look at the map. It takes over 2 weeks to go from Orzammar to the Circle Tower. It would take longer to go from the western border of Ferelden to Ostagar. So unless the Orlesians were months away from Ostagar (and thus "wait for them" would be utterly ridiculus), they were already stopped.

Modifié par Dark83, 17 décembre 2009 - 07:57 .

[Ulicus]

Dark83 wrote...

Because he's not that stupid? You'd have to be an idiot to think that way.

To clarify, I wasn't suggesting that Loghain would use those exact words, but I suspect your jibe stands regardless. Oh well, I can't expect everyone to be friendly I guess.

Dark83 wrote...
Cailan is going to with the Grey Wardens regardless, because his head is full of glory and fluff. Surely nobody disputes this. Knowing this, telling him to be at the front of your battle plan, leaving him to die, and then siezing his throne is a hell of a lot more suspisious than "Oh, he didn't listen to me."

So your theory is that Loghain always planned to kill Cailan, arguing with him only for the sake of appearances so - once his betrayal was complete - he could turn around and say, "I tried to warn him!", knowing all along that Cailan was never going to listen to him? Fair enough. I don't buy it, but it's not impossible.

It certainly seems a bit risky, since prior to Ostagar Cailan is said to have heeded Loghain's advice on every other occasion. What if Cailan backed down as he always had before? Old fashioned assassination?

Dark83 wrote...
The Orlesians were on the way to join the battle at Ostagar. Look at
the map. It takes over 2 weeks to go from Orzammar to the Circle Tower.
It would take longer to go from the western border of Ferelden to
Ostagar. So unless the Orlesians were months away from Ostagar (and
thus "wait for them" would be utterly ridiculus), they were already
stopped.

I can't remember the game telling us that the Orlesians were on their way, just that word had been sent and they were amassing their forces "on Ferelden's doorstep". I may be mistaken on that account. Appealing purely to the map is a little too inductive for my tastes, but tis no matter.

Modifié par Ulicus, 17 décembre 2009 - 08:16 .

[Dark83]

Ulicus wrote...

I can't remember the game telling us that the Orlesians were on their way, just that word had been sent and they were amassing their forces "on Ferelden's doorstep". I may be mistaken on that account. Appealing purely to the map is a little too inductive for my tastes, but tis no matter.

We have some information. Cailan says "we could wait for them" which implies they're not that far off, and Duncan tells you that the Orlesian wardens are on the way. Given that Duncan himself left Ostagar some time ago to nab you, and he knows they are coming, word was sent long before Ostagar. If we assume that when Cailan says "wait" he doesn't mean "wait two weeks", they should have already been in Ferelden by the Ostagar battle.

However, there's considerably more damning evidence simply in logistics. Assume it takes two weeks to get from the border to Ostagar (Orz to Circle is a shorter distance, but we'll assume it anyways). There is no instantaneous communication within Ferelden. If the Orlesian reenforcements were directly on the border when Ostagar happened, then as Loghain leaves Ostagar to sieze power in Denerim, at the earliest he could dispatch a messanger to the border at that time. However, that would mean the messanger and the reenforcements would meet a week from the border (directly between Ostagar and the border).

There are two possibilities. One is the Orlesians are so slow that they reach the border precisely when a messenger is dispatched immediately after Ostagar arrives. This means at a minimum that, at Ostagar, they are at least four weeks away. I feel this is contrary to what both Duncan and the king implies. Help in four weeks is no help at all. You may as well dismiss them entirely. The alternative is that Loghain has already betrayed the king and contramanded the royal order - which is far more likely given the events in Redcliffe. Arl Eamon is poisoned before Ostagar. This means that this particular conspiracy (contact Jowan, send him to Redcliffe to be a tutor, poison Eamon) happens well before Ostagar - given that (I point out once again) there is no instantaneous communications in Ferelden. The orders had to be given in advance of Loghain ever setting out for Ostagar in the first place. The betrayal was already in motion well before the events in Ostagar.

[Ulicus]

Hmm. I might be forgetting something, but why is there not the third possibility of Loghain ordering the Orlesians out of Ferelden after Ostagar? When taken into the party, he says his plan was: "re/secure the border, unite the country, batter the darkspawn" (wtte)



I have trouble believing that the Jowan plot could have occured between the Origin stories and Ostagar, too. Though the question of how much time passes between those two points is admittedly muddied at best (especially when Alistair is said to have only been a Grey Warden for six months).



The issue of when Eamon fell ill is also a little tricky because, on the one hand, yes, the knight in Lothering tells us that he fell ill before Ostagar. On the other, the minute you arrive at Ostagar with Duncan, Duncan tells the King that: "Your uncle sends word that he can have his troops here within the week"... which doesn't seem to imply that he's already fallen ill, though that could maybe/possibly slot in to the time between Eamon giving Duncan his message and the arrival at Ostagar.

[Rainen89]

Because Loghain has it under his mind that if the Orlesians cross the borders at all, they're not coming back until they take control over Ferelden again. He didn't believe the Empress would be so kind as to let her troops go back, he was insane of course but that's why it's not an option.



On the above topic of Jowan, it's a little wishy washy. To get to Redcliffe would only take a days time by in game estimations. (Teagan/Alistair etc.) But they make it sound as though this had been an ongoing thing. Granted you don't know how long it takes for you to get to Ostagar, but yeah it is a bit of a plot hole. However, anything with Jowan doing anything by himself and getting away with it, is a plot hole.

[Dark83]

Ulicus wrote...

Hmm. I might be forgetting something, but why is there not the third possibility of Loghain ordering the Orlesians out of Ferelden after Ostagar? When taken into the party, he says his plan was: "re/secure the border, unite the country, batter the darkspawn" (wtte)

Possible, but unlikely, since that would mean that other Grey Wardens are in Ferelden and not all of them are Orlesian, so why wouldn't they stay to help?

Ulicus wrote...
I have trouble believing that the Jowan plot could have occured between the Origin stories and Ostagar, too. Though the question of how much time passes between those two points is admittedly muddied at best (especially when Alistair is said to have only been a Grey Warden for six months).

The issue of when Eamon fell ill is also a little tricky because, on the one hand, yes, the knight in Lothering tells us that he fell ill before Ostagar. On the other, the minute you arrive at Ostagar with Duncan, Duncan tells the King that: "Your uncle sends word that he can have his troops here within the week"... which doesn't seem to imply that he's already fallen ill, though that could maybe/possibly slot in to the time between Eamon giving Duncan his message and the arrival at Ostagar.

Hm. We have to consider the sources. The knight gives a direct answer. You can say he's wrong, but there's no reason to disbelieve him.

The message Duncan receives and passes on isn't in real time - he made at least one stop along the way. If you're a City Elf, he went from Redcliffe to Denerim to Ostagar - which means he would have had to adjust the timetable. (As in, if it was literally within a week, then by the time you got to Ostagar, Eamon's forces should already be there. Far more likely he took his own travel time into account. Consider that as a Dwarf Commoner he spent at least two days there, and as a Dwarf Noble he spent at least three. From Redcliffe to Orzammar in the opposite direction around a lake, wait 3 days, then to Ostagar, if his message wasn't adjusted for time then Eamon's forces would be almost there. Given the travel time, Orzammar to Redcliffe is only slightly shorter than Orzammar to Circle Tower, going to Ostagar would take more than a week.)

In otherwords, Duncan's message doesn't really contradict the knight's statement on timing

[Dark83]

Rainen89 wrote...

On the above topic of Jowan, it's a little wishy washy. To get to Redcliffe would only take a days time by in game estimations. (Teagan/Alistair etc.) But they make it sound as though this had been an ongoing thing. Granted you don't know how long it takes for you to get to Ostagar, but yeah it is a bit of a plot hole.

I must have missed this. The only explicit (and I'd assume absolutely correct) travel time estimate I came across was Orzammar to the Circle. When do they mention this? Lothering to Redclffe certainly couldn't be just one day.

Going by the provided maps, Orzammar to the Circle Tower is 20mm (ignoring terrain) on the Thedas map, and it's 35mm from Redcliffe to Ostagar. Orzammar to the Circle is 30mm by the world map icons, and 60mm from Redcliffe to Ostagar. Orzammar to the Circle tower is 65mm on the Ferelden map, and it's about 110mm from Redcliffe to Ostagar. So it's roughly 1.75 times the distance. If it takes 18 days minimum to get from Orzammar to the Circle Tower (and the actual length travelled is longer than what I measured, as it is as the crow flies, which means are travel time per mm is actually higher than what it actually is) then it takes at least 31 days to get from Redcliffe to Ostagar.

Hmm...

[dirtywick]

Dark83 wrote...

Ulicus wrote...

I can't remember the game telling us that the Orlesians were on their way, just that word had been sent and they were amassing their forces "on Ferelden's doorstep". I may be mistaken on that account. Appealing purely to the map is a little too inductive for my tastes, but tis no matter.

We have some information. Cailan says "we could wait for them" which implies they're not that far off, and Duncan tells you that the Orlesian wardens are on the way. Given that Duncan himself left Ostagar some time ago to nab you, and he knows they are coming, word was sent long before Ostagar. If we assume that when Cailan says "wait" he doesn't mean "wait two weeks", they should have already been in Ferelden by the Ostagar battle.

However, there's considerably more damning evidence simply in logistics. Assume it takes two weeks to get from the border to Ostagar (Orz to Circle is a shorter distance, but we'll assume it anyways). There is no instantaneous communication within Ferelden. If the Orlesian reenforcements were directly on the border when Ostagar happened, then as Loghain leaves Ostagar to sieze power in Denerim, at the earliest he could dispatch a messanger to the border at that time. However, that would mean the messanger and the reenforcements would meet a week from the border (directly between Ostagar and the border).

There are two possibilities. One is the Orlesians are so slow that they reach the border precisely when a messenger is dispatched immediately after Ostagar arrives. This means at a minimum that, at Ostagar, they are at least four weeks away. I feel this is contrary to what both Duncan and the king implies. Help in four weeks is no help at all. You may as well dismiss them entirely. The alternative is that Loghain has already betrayed the king and contramanded the royal order - which is far more likely given the events in Redcliffe. Arl Eamon is poisoned before Ostagar. This means that this particular conspiracy (contact Jowan, send him to Redcliffe to be a tutor, poison Eamon) happens well before Ostagar - given that (I point out once again) there is no instantaneous communications in Ferelden. The orders had to be given in advance of Loghain ever setting out for Ostagar in the first place. The betrayal was already in motion well before the events in Ostagar.

It would take a messenger, or chain of messengers, considerably less time to travel than an army, mostly because available routes and delays are much, much shorter.  For instance, the Pony Express could move a piece of mail from east to west coast in ten days, that's ~300 miles/day.  Carrier pigeons would be even faster as long as the flight is within their range without rest.

None-the-less, timelines are pretty unreliable with the way the game is.  For instance, from the arrival at Ostagar to the mission in the Wilds to meeting Flemeth and Morrigan and returning, was that an afternoon?  Days?  How much time he had to plan is directly effected by this.

It didn't seem to me that they had any choice as to when the battle was to be fought being as how they were the defenders.  I'm assuming that they'd even discuss some of these options meant the horde was quite a ways out from the camp itself giving Loghain a lot of time to get his schemes in motion, probably around the time he was convinced Cailan wouldn't listen to him.

[Dark83]

The pony express functioned by a series of fresh horses, no? Which is conspicuously absent in Ferelden (haha). 300 miles/day is a nice figure to throw into this discussion, but totally irrelevant, given the distance from Ostagar to the border, unless you have instantaneous communication or the reinforcements were WAY far away, they would already be in Ferelden if the repel order was given after the king dies.

Wilds to Flemeth would be a few days. Upon return the ceremony proceeds immediately, you then go to the tower, Flemeth saves you, and you're out for a few days. The question is the mission to the wilds, but that can't be more than a day or two - since Eamon's reinforcements are supposed to be there within a week, and they don't arrive in time. So less than a week between your arrival and the king dies.

[Imryll]

celdoloth wrote...
What I am saying is that, according to the facts that he had, he made the right choices.

No. According to the facts he had, he should have agreed to delay the battle. If he really thought they couldn't win, he had the clout (and obligation) to tell Cailan, "I won't do this."

[Mithrildream]

Maric had a meeting with the Empress of Orlesians.. then some time later he's lost at sea (Loghans doing? who knows). Cailan allying with Orlesians.. is left to die. Loghain went bananas after Rowan dies, he went through a lot and it probably all caught up with him about then as he never had time to come to terms till then.