Brockololly wrote...
Its my impression that since Tudge and Knowles left soon after the PC version was done in early 2009, thats likely around when Laidlaw and Darrah and the other high ups started brainstorming at least on DA2. Before Origins came out. I recall reading some interview with Zeschuk from a while back where he made mention of how right around when ME1 came out they had discussion whether they wanted to do the player VO in Origins but decided against it to keep Origins distinct.
That timeline seems reasonable, though I would wager that talk about DA2 came earlier than when the PC version of DA went gold. If you look at the EA press releases at the time, you'll see that Dragon Age out of Bioware was seen as a game that would sell well, and
did represent a potential brand. I think EA was thinking sequel at the higher concept level near the tail end of development, prior to when the game went into lockdown for the PC, so even as early as late 2008.
I don't think its out of the question that maybe BioWare got cold feet with the more traditional RPG approach to Origins after they delayed the PC version and maybe thinking it wouldn't live up to ME1 or what they were doing with ME2 at the time, they jumped the gun with trying to make DA2 more in the vein of a "cinematic" hybrid
I don't think that's consistent with the timeline. Essentially, if you're right that
around when ME1 came out Bioware had to decide for or against VO in DA, that might have given them enough time to have some reasonable estimate of the commercial success of ME1. A lot can be made of the first 2 weeks of sales for a particular game.
ME1 came out as a major commercial success (at the time) for Bioware, and it was a major move for their IP since their previous console foray in Jade Empire was not as succesful as they would have liked.
I think that the fact that Bioware, with sales data from ME1 in had decided to stick to a silent protagonist in DA:O suggest against the fact that they had cold feed with regard to the affair.
It may well be reasonable to suggest that Bioware expect DA:O to be less of a commercial success than ME. That's certainly something we can take for granted. But I'm going to address why I don't think this played a role when addresing you below.
RPG like ME, thinking thats where the biggest new audience was. And then of course, Origins did pretty well after all. So they're doing what they're doing because perhaps by the time they started getting critical and commercial feedback on Origins, it was too late to turn the ship around, maybe as EA had already pegged them for delivering another DA title in early 2011.
Here is the issue. Let's say these original figures are accurate, and ME2 sold something around 1.6 million units and DA:O sold around 3.2 million units while DA2 had been in development for several months already, if not close to a full year.
The difference here is
1.6 million units, which priced at a very conservative $40/game would mean an extra 64 million dollars (that's
$64 ,000,0000 just for the sake of emphasis).
Let's say Bioware sunk 10 million in non-recoverable cost and it would have taken them another 20 million to redesign DA2 above budget to make it the same game as DA:O. Let's even be conservative and say they would had a net revenue of 10 million less on the game with the sequel, for whatever reason.
This would still mean Bioware is leaving 10 million dollars on the table.
No, I just can't see how this rationale is justified from an economic stadpoint. A 1.6 million unit difference is basically
a second AAA release for a lot of developers.