27 réponses à ce sujet

[Computron2000]

This is strictly for fun. I'm going to use stats from http://www.citypopulation.de/

London currently has 12 million now. The average of the entire list of 479 cities with at least 1 million currently, is about 3 mllion. That is about 1/4 of London's population.

Assuming the 9 million dead ratio in the first week holds for the rest of the cities and the population growth rate other the other cities follows London, that would be 0.25*9*479 million=1 billion dead in 1 week worldwide.

Ignoring that as the population gets less concentrated as it decreases and based on 11 billion total population, the Reapers would kill everyone in 11 weeks= less tha 3 months

Get moving Shepard!

[TheNexus]

It'll be way less time than that, because what they kill first is military personnel, since that's generally who's firing back at them. After that killing the civilians (I know this sounds horrible) will take far less time as they aren't actually fighting back.

[Saren100]

TheNexus wrote...

It'll be way less time than that, because what they kill first is military personnel, since that's generally who's firing back at them. After that killing the civilians (I know this sounds horrible) will take far less time as they aren't actually fighting back.

You never know maybe future earth has a massive volkssturm system in place.

[Boom_Headshot1337]

I would guess like 10 million, Reapers may first destroy the army but it will take them time to hunt down expert guerrillas.

[TheNexus]

Saren100 wrote...

TheNexus wrote...

It'll be way less time than that, because what they kill first is military personnel, since that's generally who's firing back at them. After that killing the civilians (I know this sounds horrible) will take far less time as they aren't actually fighting back.

You never know maybe future earth has a massive volkssturm system in place.

Yeah but even with a militia, most of the heavy firepower that was utilized by the military will probably be destroyed by then.

[Darth_Trethon]

Not that many.....the world's population is well over 6 billion now and by 2185 there would probably triple that many people on earth. The reapers killed what.....9 million in London in a week. Probably between 100k and 200k worldwide......it would take them months to kill just one billion people much less 15+ billion. Shep's got all the time in the world.

[Computron2000]

Darth_Trethon wrote...

Not that many.....the world's population is well over 6 billion now and by 2185 there would probably triple that many people on earth. The reapers killed what.....9 million in London in a week. Probably between 100k and 200k worldwide......it would take them months to kill just one billion people much less 15+ billion. Shep's got all the time in the world.

The problem lies with the earth being finite. You can't  increase without stopping due to limited space. I think the current estimate for max population for Earth before we run into critical problems (as in EVERYONE starts dying) is about 12 billion. The ME codex says Earth has about 11.4 billion which pretty much pushes the limit.

100 million is somewhat low since there is 23 cities with more population now than London currently. If those cities also have 9 million dead per city, it would at least be 9*24=216 million.

And thats not even considering that the top ranking city of Tokyo has nearly 3 times the population of London. I'm assuming that more people = more targets = more dead by the Reapers. The other top cities have twice London's population as well.

Modifié par Computron2000, 13 décembre 2010 - 09:13 .

[Saren100]

In mass effect redemption it described how the cities of Austin Houston and Dallas had grown so large they formed into one super city.



Presumably London Spans atleast half of Great Britain if not the entire island.



Why would the reapers choose the specific spot where big ben and parliment are in such a huge city.



This of course leads to larger questions like how the reapers know where the parliment of Great Britain is located.

[Alphyn]

Saren100 wrote...

In mass effect redemption it described how the cities of Austin Houston and Dallas had grown so large they formed into one super city.

Presumably London Spans atleast half of Great Britain if not the entire island.

Why would the reapers choose the specific spot where big ben and parliment are in such a huge city.

This of course leads to larger questions like how the reapers know where the parliment of Great Britain is located.

It's not like ALL of the Reapers are just there; they're all over the friggin' world.

[Katamariguy]

Saren100 wrote...


This of course leads to larger questions like how the reapers know where the parliment of Great Britain is located.

Wikipedia

[Saren100]

Katamariguy wrote...

Saren100 wrote...


This of course leads to larger questions like how the reapers know where the parliment of Great Britain is located.

Wikipedia

Makes Sence

lol commander shepard edits wiki so that London new Location is in the middle of the North Sea.

[Tron Evolution]

damn, wikileak.

[Saren100]

Tron Evolution wrote...

damn, wikileak.

I dont think Reapers are going to care about how American diplomats have biased views on the countries there stationed in.

Or how when Russia was signing treaties with NATO at the same time NATO was preparing military operations in the Caucasus. :innocent:

[Computron2000]

Saren100 wrote...
This of course leads to larger questions like how the reapers know where the parliment of Great Britain is located.

This is assuming the building still performs the same function. If so, i'm guessing they simply traced communications.

[Monochrome Wench]

Or its just a coincidence. Its an Iconic location and makes for a very impactful scene. Things must have really gone to hell if the houses of parliment have been destroyed.

[Orion55]

or they just used the internet...

[The Fan]

Computron2000 wrote...

This is strictly for fun. I'm going to use stats from http://www.citypopulation.de/

London currently has 12 million now. The average of the entire list of 479 cities with at least 1 million currently, is about 3 mllion. That is about 1/4 of London's population.

Assuming the 9 million dead ratio in the first week holds for the rest of the cities and the population growth rate other the other cities follows London, that would be 0.25*9*479 million=1 billion dead in 1 week worldwide. 

So assuming that, Shepard will have an eleven week window until the Earth falls completely to the reapers. 
Ignoring that as the population gets less concentrated as it decreases and based on 11 billion total population, the Reapers would kill everyone in 11 weeks= less tha 3 months

Get moving Shepard!

[Orion55]

Doesn't give him much time for mining.

[Computron2000]

Orion55 wrote...

Doesn't give him much time for mining.

No need for mining now. Liara will provide you the minerals.

[Sir Ulrich Von Lichenstien]

Monochrome Wench wrote...

Or its just a coincidence. Its an Iconic location and makes for a very impactful scene. Things must have really gone to hell if the houses of parliment have been destroyed.

No worries, as long as there is still plenty of Anstone by 2186 we'll be fine. We can rebuild it, make it stronger, we have the technology. We've still got a fair lot of Anstone and can easilly be quarried for more.

As for the OP question, I don't think the death total is just accounting for military. Think about it, Reapers crashing into the ground and any buildings in the way. They aren't going to be full of military unless a mass evac of London was organised beforehand. The fact that that big ben has reports of things going on, one thing that does sound clear is that either communication to the outside galaxy has been cut off or the council is still playing dumb. I would imagine other major cities will have got targetted at same time as London and in that scene alone it's obviously been longer than a week... but still... they cooooome (as in Reapers still coming down from outer space to land in London), I would estimate a fairly big number if you accounted for all the major cities of the world being hit the same as London has within a week.

[Bamboozalist]

First off we don't know what that 9 million applies to, it could be world wide, or London, or the UK as a whole. It's just 9 million dead. Secondly the initial death toll is going to be much higher because that will be when all our military forces are fighting back.

[KMYash]

This of course leads to larger questions like how the reapers know where the parliment of Great Britain is located.

If the geth can put fake stories on the extranet I'm sure the Reapers can do a little bit of research.

[DaVanguard]

Heres another thing to worry about that One billion dead might have just been fron the reapers advanced forces alone and the trailer showed that the reapers were just arriving so that could mean that they will put their attacks and reaping into high gear

[Computron2000]

Bamboozalist wrote...

First off we don't know what that 9 million applies to, it could be world wide, or London, or the UK as a whole. It's just 9 million dead. Secondly the initial death toll is going to be much higher because that will be when all our military forces are fighting back.

This is where the text of the trailer needs to be analysed. The soldier talks about all their forces in retreat and regrouping. THEN he talks about "reports are coming in from other major cities" of the world. This implies his prior sentences was talking about local forces, the one that he is attached to.

Its is not impossible that he was doing a generalised total including the reports that came in from the other parts of the world. However that would be a wierd use of sentence structure.

In regards to the second point of the military fighting back an thus higher initial casulties, i suspect that is why the first number is 2 million in 1 day by the other 7 million requires a week. It can probably also be assumed that the other major cities will follow the same pattern of more deaths on the first day with the initial fight back.

[adam_grif]

It's pretty obvious that most of the world isn't burning from the trailer. Your estimates only hold if the entire world is invaded simultaneously, but we don't see that from the trailer. I'll take a VLC screenshot:







(720p screenshot, please right click + view image to see full sized)