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[LobselVith8]

KnightofPhoenix wrote...

The Chantry is the sole buyer of Lyrium, Orzammar's greatest resource. If having a circle in Orzammar pisses the Chantry off, why would Bhelen jeopardize his main source of income for mages?



But Bhelen is smart and I am sure he will realize the military value of mages. So I can see himtrying to play both sides. The question is, if the Chantry threatens Orzammar with an exalted March over this issue, or a blockade to block Orzammar from the surface. Would Bhelen stubbornly cling to the mages?



This is not only Orzammar's interests we are talking about, but Bhelen's own regime. His alliance with merchants is crucial and if that is compromised, one of the pillars of his regime crumbles.



That's why I believe that while Orzammar definately has a huge part to play in the future (mainly because of Lyrium), it is an imperfect and potentially temporary solution for mages. I do not think it will become a mage utopia without the Chantry noticing and doing something about it.

That goes both ways. Bhelen is in a perfect position because he wants to regain the lost thaigs (which mage support would help with tremendously) and the Chantry is dependent on the lyrium trade for its mages and its lyrium addicted templars. How long would the Chantry last without the lyrium trade? How long could the templars lord over the mages without the lyrium? They couldn't risk a blocade, especially since the dwarves only sell a small portion of their lyrium to the Chantry in the first place.

[KnightofPhoenix]

IanPolaris wrote...
Basically unless the Divine is willing to court a HUGE political and military risk, I just don't see them doing much about apostate circles in Orzammar (that's really meaningful anyway).  If they try, they open themselves up on other fronts.

-Polaris

It's certainly a risk, but cornered animals are known for their ferocity. If the Chantry is under pressure from all sides (Libertarian rise), they might try something like that.

Would Ferelden really stand against the Chantry (and behind it a country like Orlais)? Doubtful.
Ferelden wouldn't like it. Ferelden might even stay neutral. Would it side with Orzammar? I find it unlikely, unless Ferelden became strong enough to face, at the very least, Orlais and hold it off. It might be possible in a few decades, but now? Eh.

Modifié par KnightofPhoenix, 11 janvier 2011 - 04:04 .

[Giggles_Manically]

If Bhelen were trying to deal with an irked Chantry the best thing to do would be to send an envoy to the Chantry and say that he needs the mages to keep the Darkspawn on the run and allow for more lyrium trade without a risk of darkspawn.



The Divine would be stupid to try and march on Orzamar since she would have to siege a mountain.

By the time any headway was gained all the templars would be weeping and gibbering in confusion from withdrawl. Try explaining to everyone why your elite troops arent playing anymore then.

[IanPolaris]

KnightofPhoenix wrote...

IanPolaris wrote...
Basically unless the Divine is willing to court a HUGE political and military risk, I just don't see them doing much about apostate circles in Orzammar (that's really meaningful anyway).  If they try, they open themselves up on other fronts.

-Polaris

It's certainly a risk, but cornered animals are known for their ferocity. If the Chantry is under pressure from all sides (Libertarian rise), they might try something like that.

I don't see it.  Empress Celene I might not go for it either because she clearly wants to improve relations with Fereldan.  Chantry control is shakey in the Free Marches as well, and Tevinter might not sit this one out either.  I think the sane advisors seeing the lack of ardor for yet another crusade...err...Exalted March....would tell the Divine to put a sock in it.

That doesn't mean they might not try to threaten Orz with an Exalted March, but that too is a policy fraught with needless risk.  The fact is that the threat of Orz Circles does not come directly in a military manner.  Those mages will be busy in the deep roads.  Rather it's the precedence.......

Would Ferelden really stand against the Chantry (and behind it a country like Orlais)? Doubtful.
Ferelden wouldn't like it. Ferelden might even stay neutral. Would it side with Orzammar? I find it unlikely, unless Ferelden became strong enough to face, at the very least, Orlais and hold it off. It might be possible in a few decades, but now? Eh.

Could Ferelden stand up to an exalted march by herself?  Clearly not.  That's ridiculous.  However, a hostile/neutral Fereden wouldn't have to stand up directly to the Chantry.  Just deny goods and services, put pressure on Orlais (and as I say above Celene I wants better relations with Fereldan).  Also Dwarven trade in armor and weapons is very important for Fereldan, and the new King or Queen is not known for being very pro-Chantry.....to put it mildly.

Think the US in WWII during 1941 in the Atlantic before Pearl Harbor.  Given all the troubles the Chantry is going to have getting other nations to support an exalted march, hearing that Fereldan will be hostile-neutral would really put cold water on the idea especially since such a march would involve a lengthy seige in Fereldan Territory and there are so many ways that the King (or Queen) of Fereldan could make their lives miserable without openly declaring war.

-Polaris

[Skadi_the_Evil_Elf]

LobselVith8 wrote...



That goes both ways. Bhelen is in a perfect position because he wants to regain the lost thaigs (which mage support would help with tremendously) and the Chantry is dependent on the lyrium trade for its mages and its lyrium addicted templars. How long would the Chantry last without the lyrium trade? How long could the templars lord over the mages without the lyrium? They couldn't risk a blocade, especially since the dwarves only sell a small portion of their lyrium to the Chantry in the first place.

Exactly. The Chantry is stupid to try and call an exalted march on orzammar, the only supplier of lyrium, its leash on templars. Without Lyrium, well..good luck getting your army of drug addicts to march cohesively on a well defended underground base. That has..you know..lyrium. And mages. And a crack army. And possibly, golems.

So its a non-issue, as far as the Chantry declaring war on Orzammar. The Chantry needs them far more than orzammar needs the Chantry. The Chantry os the only buyer because of legality, not need. We see lyrium smuggling is a thriving business, so legit trade can be bypassed. In fact, smuggling is often more profitable than legit trade. Bhelen could easily capitalize on this, since he's smart.

[KnightofPhoenix]

Orlais is no where near dependent on Ferelden for any kind of goods and services. The reason why I would think Celene wants close relations with Ferelden is to have more economic influence in the country (especially on the Waking sea. The Orlesians didn't build Amaranthine city for no reason) and to remove the possibility of a southern front, when dealing with Nevarra. But it's not really dependent on Ferelden for anything.

Not saying an Exalted March on Orzammar is compeltely rational. It's risky. Extremily risky. And it might even be the loud crash before the end. Now of course there is one potential obstacle to this and that's the rise of Nevarra. If the balance of power shifts from Orlais to Nevarra, and the latter doesn't embrace the Chantry as much as Orlais, then the Chantry will be in a position of weakness and it would really be its final days as a political institution.

Oh and I do not see Tevinter interfering, they are too busy fighting the Qunari.

Modifié par KnightofPhoenix, 11 janvier 2011 - 04:23 .

[KnightofPhoenix]

Skadi_the_Evil_Elf wrote...
So its a non-issue, as far as the Chantry declaring war on Orzammar. The Chantry needs them far more than orzammar needs the Chantry. The Chantry os the only buyer because of legality, not need. We see lyrium smuggling is a thriving business, so legit trade can be bypassed. In fact, smuggling is often more profitable than legit trade. Bhelen could easily capitalize on this, since he's smart.

If the Chantry takes over Orzammar and employs surface dwarves for this task, they would have total  and absolute control over Lyrium. A huge risk, but it's not compeltely irrational or stupid. If the Chantry is feeling that it's losing control, they might try something like that (an act of desperation).

As for smuggling. Smuggling with nations might be very profitable (and who will buy Lyrium and for what?). But with small buyers (mostly some mages)? I highly doubt it.

Modifié par KnightofPhoenix, 11 janvier 2011 - 04:24 .

[LobselVith8]

KnightofPhoenix wrote...

IanPolaris wrote...
Basically unless the Divine is willing to court a HUGE political and military risk, I just don't see them doing much about apostate circles in Orzammar (that's really meaningful anyway).  If they try, they open themselves up on other fronts.

-Polaris

It's certainly a risk, but cornered animals are known for their ferocity. If the Chantry is under pressure from all sides (Libertarian rise), they might try something like that.

Would Ferelden really stand against the Chantry (and behind it a country like Orlais)? Doubtful.
Ferelden wouldn't like it. Ferelden might even stay neutral. Would it side with Orzammar? I find it unlikely, unless Ferelden became strong enough to face, at the very least, Orlais and hold it off. It might be possible in a few decades, but now? Eh.

True, Ferelden wouldn't risk a war for the mages, especially after everything they suffered because of the Blight, but they wouldn't risk their invaluable lyrium trade with the dwarves, especially with so many of their templars addicted to it. It's like the Spice of Ferelden, and they wouldn't risk losing it over Orzammar's policies.

[Skadi_the_Evil_Elf]

IanPolaris wrote...

Skadi,

Assuming a King Bhelen, I don't think that Dwarf wipes his behind unless it's in his (and Orzammar's best interest) and I certainly don't think he understands the concept of charity. However, Darkspawn have magic and Dwarven combat teams do not. That is a HUGE disadvantage the dwarves have to deal with on a daily basis.

I am virtually certain that magical circles in Orzammar would answer directly to the King of Orzammar and would be required to give military aid and direct support (esp battlemagic support and healing) to the fight in the deep roads. If King Bhelen can get more magical support to help Orzammar, I think at the very least he'd at least consider coming in on the side of mages especially since Circles in Orzammar have pretty much poisoned any relationship with the human Chantry (which Dwarves almost universally seem to hold in low regard anyway).

-Polaris

I am certain that a Circle in Orzammar would be answerable to the king. But such a circle would be independant of all other circles on the surface, which are Chantry run. The breaking point I'm talking about is purely a surface Circle issue, with the Chantry being the primary complaint.  If orzammar itself was attacked, they would aid the king. But as far as supporting surface rebellions, I think they would stay neutral, at least until a clear beneficial course of action can be determined.

because actually involving himself in surface wars would not be in Orzammar's best interest, in fact, it would be more dangerous. He wouldn't need to support the various circles on the surface to gain magical firepower. There are plenty of apostates/mages on the run who would easily come to Orzammar and fill its mage ranks, so its not like he needs the support of the circles.

For Bhelen, it would be alot more practical to allow Circles in Orzammar to be developed, to aid the armies in defensive and offensive measures against the darkspawn, as well as use in case someone from the surface attacks them. He loses nothing in the process, and gains a new military element for his armies. But he risks more than he gains in openly siding with surface Circles in the conflict.

But as far as worrying about exalted marches, he really doesn't have much to worry about. The Chantry opens its mouth, Bhelen can turn off the lyrium tap, and the army of templars will never make it to the gates of Orzammar before they flip out and turn into drooling idiots once their drugs are denied.

And the Chantry is the only legal market. the moment they declare war, you will find a number of other markets suddenly open, eager to take advatange of the situation.

[Giggles_Manically]

The sheer logistics of marching an army to Orzamar is bad.

With a horde of peasants eager to serve the maker staying there things would go bad quick.



Lots of people starving if they dont set up supply lines.

[KnightofPhoenix]

Previous Exalted Marches were not based on Templars Skadi. The bulk of the effort was made by nations. If both the Chantry and Orlais are fearing the loss of control and the shift in the balance of power that is not in their favor, they might try to take Orzammar. If Orlais / Chantry have absolute control over the resource, they might believe that it will put them back into the fray.

[IanPolaris]

KnightofPhoenix wrote...

Orlais is no where near dependent on Ferelden for any kind of goods and services. The reason why I would think Celene wants close relations with Ferelden is to have more economic influence in the country (especially on the Waking sea. The Orlesians didn't build Amaranthine city for no reason) and to remove the possibility of a southern front, when dealing with Nevarra. But it's not really dependent on Ferelden for anything.

You need to realize that politics don't revolve ENTIRELY around trade.  You just stated the primary military consideration why Orlais would be very likely to (politely) tell the Divine to put a sock in it.  Orlais is becoming very, very concerned with Nevarra.  A hostile Fereldan is something that Orlais doesn't need and can not afford.  Fereledan is already inclined to be hostile towards Orlais to start with, and having Orlais march across the border to seige Orzmmar (exalted march or no) will pretty much confirm all the worst Feledan suspicions about Orlais and Orlais can't afford that.

Not saying an Exalted March on Orzammar is compeltely rational. It's risky. Extremily risky. And it might even be the loud crash before the end. Now of course there is one potential obstacle to this and that's the rise of Nevarra. If the balance of power shifts from Orlais to Nevarra, and the latter doesn't embrace the Chantry as much as Orlais, then the Chantry will be in a position of weakness and it would really be its final days as a political institution.

Oh and I do not see Tevinter interfering, they are too busy fighting the Qunari.

The problem is that it's risky for the Chantry because the nations that would have to back it (Orlais and Fereldan in particular) are not desperate and aren't Chantry pawns (esp the new King/Queen of Fereldan with their close ties to the Grey Wardens and thus Orzammar).  If the Divine forgets, someone will quickly remind her that the King (or Queen's) friend/advisor/consort/lover actually CHOSE the current King of Orzammar.

Thus even if the Chantry were desperate enough to attempt it, the nations they would have to get to agree to such an Exalted March are not desperate and as a group could tell the Chantry to "Put a sock in it".  England, Spain, and France all did this with the Roman Catholic Church during the Rennsaissance with near impunity.

-Polaris

[KnightofPhoenix]

Giggles_Manically wrote...

The sheer logistics of marching an army to Orzamar is bad.
With a horde of peasants eager to serve the maker staying there things would go bad quick.

Lots of people starving if they dont set up supply lines.

It's not that bad really.
They could travel by sea, they don't need to pass through the Frostback Mountains. And what we see is only one or two gates as a defense.

Not saying it would be easy, but wouldn't be impossible for the Chantry / Orlais to take over it. If they are desperate enough to try and pull it off. 

Ifr Ferelden becomes strong enough, then I can see Ferelden and Orzammar putting on an adequate defense, and if Nevarra and other nations voice neutrality, the Exalted March would be unfeasible.

Maybe I am giving the Chantry too much credit, but when they are seirously considering an Exalted MArch, I am going to give them the benefit of the doubt and think that they must have at least some capacity to do it for them to even consider it.

[IanPolaris]

Giggles_Manically wrote...

The sheer logistics of marching an army to Orzamar is bad.
With a horde of peasants eager to serve the maker staying there things would go bad quick.

Lots of people starving if they dont set up supply lines.

If Fereldan is hostile or even hostile-neutral (as the US was towards the Axis pre-1942), the logistics go from bad to impossible.  It's possible for the king or queen of Fereldan to muck up the logistics to make them impossible on their soil without even coming close to open warefare.

-Polaris

[KnightofPhoenix]

@ Ian.

But Orlais can very well become desperate in the future, if Nevarra becomes too powerful. It might want to do something that it would believe would put it back into a dominating position and taking absolute control over the Lyrium trade might do that (or so they might think).

We have seen many times countries going into war out of sheer desperation to avoid what they saw as an inevitable decline (see Germany in WW1). The rise of Nevarra might very well spell an inevitable decline of Orlais.

Modifié par KnightofPhoenix, 11 janvier 2011 - 04:42 .

[Giggles_Manically]

Letting out a rumor that you are considering something is just a way to influence or threaten someone.



More to the point though its not the leaders who decide things its the people themselves who would march. Whole villages in France emptied without their lords consent during the First Crusade.

People would rather serve the maker then the King it seems in Thedas and many people will go.



The problem is, is that most Templars are not great warriors since most have stayed in the Tower acting as guards.

Most dwarven soldiers have engaged Darkspawn or have fought bitter battles against their rival houses.



Since Templars can fight mages the best, they would get butchered fighting in close quarters against dwarves. Cant see it ending well for them.



Even if most soldiers did want to go it would be easy for a lord to plead problems elsewhere and not go. I doubt most people in Thedas who have power would want to march all the way to Orzamar or hop on a boat for no gain themselves.

[IanPolaris]

KoP,



You are giving the Chantry WAY too much credit. If the bulk of the Chantry forces are Orlesian and given the anti-Chantry inclinations of a King Alistair (and even Queen Anora) given what has just happened, how fast do you see them screaming about another "Orlesian Occupation".



Also trying to hold sealines and traderoutes in hostile territory is a no-go esp with medaeval supply methods.



In addition to that, Nevarra is just licking their chops to the North of Orlais as well. Celene I knows this even if the Divine is clueless which (as you say) is the reason she wants better relations with Fereldan. Even if Orlais sits on their hands, the exalted march fails before it starts.



-Polaris

[KnightofPhoenix]

Nevarra itself is too busy securing its hold over the Blasted Hills, where Orlais is spreading dissent. Nevarra itself might be preoccupied with an Orlesian sponsored rebellion in the Blasted Hills. Which would be an opportune moment.

Modifié par KnightofPhoenix, 11 janvier 2011 - 04:43 .

[IanPolaris]

KnightofPhoenix wrote...

@ Ian.

But Orlais can very well become desperate in the future, if Nevarra becomes too powerful. It might want to do something that it would believe would put it back into a dominating position and taking absolute control over the Lyrium trade might do that (or so they might think).

We have seen many times countries going into war out of sheer desperation to avoid what they saw as an inevitable decline (see Germany in WW1). The rise of Nevarra might very well spell an inevitable decline of Orlais.

That is not Celene I's policy, however, and we both know it.  Her policy is to PREVENT a two front war, and taking part in an exalted march on Orzammar on Fereldan Territory is likely to trigger it, and there wouldn't be any lyrium for YEARS because that's how long a seige would take....if it were possible at all (and given a hostile Fereldan it really would not be).

Do you really think Nevarra would sit and wait for Orlais to get the "power" it needs while her armies are stuck in this useless seige, or do you think they will take military advantage?

I think you know the answer, and I think Empress Celene I does too which is why the Empress will (at best) sit on her hands and likely tell the Divine to put a sock in it.

-Polaris

[IanPolaris]

KnightofPhoenix wrote...

Nevarra itself is too busy securing its hold over the Blasted Hills, where Orlais is spreading dissent. Nevarra itself might be preoccupied with an Orlesian sponsored rebellion in the Blasted Hills. Which would be an opportune moment.

Not if the bulk of the Orlasian forces are beseiging Orzammar and dealing with Fereldan raids and other deniable acts of war.

-Polaris

[IanPolaris]

KnightofPhoenix wrote...

We have seen many times countries going into war out of sheer desperation to avoid what they saw as an inevitable decline (see Germany in WW1). The rise of Nevarra might very well spell an inevitable decline of Orlais.

You are thinking Austra-Hungary.  Germany went to war because she felt she had to honor her treaty obligations.  Germany did not want war in 1914 and took a considerable effort to try to avoid it.

-Polaris

[KnightofPhoenix]

IanPolaris wrote...
That is not Celene I's policy, however, and we both know it.  Her policy is to PREVENT a two front war, and taking part in an exalted march on Orzammar on Fereldan Territory is likely to trigger it, and there wouldn't be any lyrium for YEARS because that's how long a seige would take....if it were possible at all (and given a hostile Fereldan it really would not be).

Do you really think Nevarra would sit and wait for Orlais to get the "power" it needs while her armies are stuck in this useless seige, or do you think they will take military advantage?

I think you know the answer, and I think Empress Celene I does too which is why the Empress will (at best) sit on her hands and likely tell the Divine to put a sock in it.

-Polaris

Celene is not going to stay empress forever. You might get an idiot on the throne. And one who might be a religious zealot at that. Things like that happen.

As for Nevarra, like I said in a previous post, it too can become preoccupied with a rebellion in the Blasted Hills.

[Wittand25]

bcooper56 wrote...

Skadi_the_Evil_Elf wrote...

Did you invoke annulment on the Circle? That's how you get that ending. In which case, dunno why you'd be bothered by a bad ending for the mages, seeing how you wiped them out in the first place.

Mage endings are not very happy, regardless. If you saved the mages, and had Anora/Alistair grant freedom to the circle, Cullen the templar flips out and kills apprentices before running off like a cackling mad man.

Umm im not sure how i falled it. I went in and said i would free mages told one trap templar i would not kill them all and all  i did was go and fill bosses up in finale area of the tower.

You did not use the Litany that you get after the Fade sequence. In the fight with Uldreth he starts to turn mages into abdominations. Wynne will yell at you to use the Litany. If you do it the mage is saved if you do not use it in time the mage is turned into an abdonination. If all mages are turned it counts as annulment of the circle. To get  a happier ending at least one mage must survive the fight.

[Skadi_the_Evil_Elf]

KnightofPhoenix wrote...

If the Chantry takes over Orzammar and employs surface dwarves for this task, they would have total  and absolute control over Lyrium. A huge risk, but it's not compeltely irrational or stupid. If the Chantry is feeling that it's losing control, they might try something like that (an act of desperation).

If the Chantry takes over Orzammar? I'd say that's about as likely as Zathrien's clan invading and taking over Denerim, for reasons I've already stated. How are they going to get an army of addicts going through withdrawals to attack a city full of probably the best organized and trained army in Thedas? And one that possibly has mages and golems, to boot? And one that is underground, heavily fortified, and barricaded?

these are the dwarves we are talking about. They have managed to survive centuries of unbroken warfare with the darkspawn. An army of religous dopeheads is not going to pose much of a problem there. Sure, the Chantry would be stupid enough to try it. And they would fail. Epicly.

As for smuggling. Smuggling with nations might be very profitable (and who will buy Lyrium and for what?). But with small buyers (mostly some mages)? I highly doubt it.

You keep thinking that the Chantry is the only market for lyrium, but as I pointed out, its the only LEGAL market. Laws are relative to who is going to follow or enforce them. 

Consider opium. Opium is a crop that is heavily regulated, with only certain international buyers legally allowed to buy it and process it. Yet the illegal market for opium, because of demand, is waaaaay bigger than the legal one, because there is a high demand for illegal opium products (black market opium, heroin, ect). There are governments and organizations who are soley funded by the sale of illegal drugs, because there is a huge demand for the stuff.

When you consider the number of people in the world who are the market for illegal drugs (percentage of population who use such substances), then the question of "who will buy" becomes moot.

You forget Tevinter, a big old mageocracy that uses the stuff, and guess what. They ain't exactly on good terms with the Chantry. Given the numbers of mages in Tevinter is probably equal to all the circles in thedas combined, I'd say you've found your other market. Plus, we don't know the numbers of apostates out there, but it's probably similar to the numbers of illegal drug addicts in most societies in the real world, and those numerous drug addicts, scattered as they are, keep the international drug trade thriving.

There is always a demand. And in Orzammar, both in the DC origin as well as that smuggler dude in Dust Town, you can learn that lyrium smuggling thrives despite the Chantry being the only legit market, as well as complaints about this set up.

There are also other uses for refined lyrium seperate from the mages/templars. hell, its mostly the templars who rely on it, the mages can always resort to blood magic to bypass the need. But it is hinted that lyrium is used for other applications not related to or dependant upon mages.

[IanPolaris]

KnightofPhoenix wrote...
Celene is not going to stay empress forever. You might get an idiot on the throne. And one who might be a religious zealot at that. Things like that happen.

As for Nevarra, like I said in a previous post, it too can become preoccupied with a rebellion in the Blasted Hills.

By all acounts Celene was crowned recently and is a young woman so she likely will stay in power for decades.  Even a couple of decades is all that's needed to make an exalted march completely unfeasable especially given a (possible) Fereldan-Orzammar alliance, rise of Nevarra, and general weakening of the chantry and especially if the situation in the Free Marches blows up (which we all know it will).

In short, if the Chantry is going to try an Exalted March on Orzammar to put the circles in their place, it has to be done SOON as in within the next decade and Celene I will almost certainly be Empress in ten years.

-Polaris