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[KnightofPhoenix]

IanPolaris wrote...

KnightofPhoenix wrote...

Nevarra itself is too busy securing its hold over the Blasted Hills, where Orlais is spreading dissent. Nevarra itself might be preoccupied with an Orlesian sponsored rebellion in the Blasted Hills. Which would be an opportune moment.

Not if the bulk of the Orlasian forces are beseiging Orzammar and dealing with Fereldan raids and other deniable acts of war.

-Polaris

And if Ferelden falls into civil war? Orlais can easily side with one side against the other and just go in to Orzammar.
There are many ways in which Nevarra can be too pre-occupied and that Ferelden might collapse into another civil war.

As for WW1. I should have specified, I meant the Schlieffen plan the Germans had in mind. They always thought that if a war was necessary, it would be better sooner rather than later, as a huge part of the plan was that Russians were too under-developped to be able to mobalise quickly (giving them time, they thought, to knock out France). But in a few years, they would be able to, thus making the plan unfeasible.

Modifié par KnightofPhoenix, 11 janvier 2011 - 05:00 .

[KnightofPhoenix]

IanPolaris wrote...
In short, if the Chantry is going to try an Exalted March on Orzammar to put the circles in their place, it has to be done SOON as in within the next decade and Celene I will almost certainly be Empress in ten years.

-Polaris

What if she is assassinated by religious zealots and they put a zealot on the throne with the Chantry's blessings?

Yes, people that are desperate do crazy things.

Modifié par KnightofPhoenix, 11 janvier 2011 - 04:55 .

[Skadi_the_Evil_Elf]

KnightofPhoenix wrote...

Previous Exalted Marches were not based on Templars Skadi. The bulk of the effort was made by nations. If both the Chantry and Orlais are fearing the loss of control and the shift in the balance of power that is not in their favor, they might try to take Orzammar. If Orlais / Chantry have absolute control over the resource, they might believe that it will put them back into the fray.

I highly doubt that. Orzammar's entrance is in Ferelden territory. Celene isn't going to risk all out war just because the Chantry has a hair up its ass. It has Nevarra to worry about.

[IanPolaris]

Wittand25 wrote...

You did not use the Litany that you get after the Fade sequence. In the fight with Uldreth he starts to turn mages into abdominations. Wynne will yell at you to use the Litany. If you do it the mage is saved if you do not use it in time the mage is turned into an abdonination. If all mages are turned it counts as annulment of the circle. To get  a happier ending at least one mage must survive the fight.

On the other hand it's worth noting that if you can kill Uldred fast enough (my Cunning Dagger Rogue did), you also will get the "good' ending as well since Uldred won't have been able to turn all the mages into abominations.  You really do have to kill him fast to get this, however, if you don't use the litany.

-Polaris

[KnightofPhoenix]

Skadi_the_Evil_Elf wrote...
If the Chantry takes over Orzammar? I'd say that's about as likely as Zathrien's clan invading and taking over Denerim, for reasons I've already stated. How are they going to get an army of addicts going through withdrawals to attack a city full of probably the best organized and trained army in Thedas? And one that possibly has mages and golems, to boot? And one that is underground, heavily fortified, and barricaded?

It's not plausible if Orlais doesn't sign on, that's what I was talking about.

You keep thinking that the Chantry is the only market for lyrium, but as I pointed out, its the only LEGAL market. Laws are relative to who is going to follow or enforce them. 

Other than Tevinter (and why does the Chantry even let them have it?), what countries would buy it? For what exactly? This isn't exactly a human friendly substance afterall and only dwarves can manipualte it. 

The smuggler in Dust town has a mage buyer. Not a nation or a huge market, just a mage.

[KnightofPhoenix]

Skadi_the_Evil_Elf wrote...

KnightofPhoenix wrote...

Previous Exalted Marches were not based on Templars Skadi. The bulk of the effort was made by nations. If both the Chantry and Orlais are fearing the loss of control and the shift in the balance of power that is not in their favor, they might try to take Orzammar. If Orlais / Chantry have absolute control over the resource, they might believe that it will put them back into the fray.

I highly doubt that. Orzammar's entrance is in Ferelden territory. Celene isn't going to risk all out war just because the Chantry has a hair up its ass. It has Nevarra to worry about.

And Nevarra has the blasted hills to worry about and if Orlais thinks that its decline is inevitable, that a war sooner rather than later would be the best thing to do (or so they might htink). And if Ferelden falls into civil war, voila.

Modifié par KnightofPhoenix, 11 janvier 2011 - 04:59 .

[IanPolaris]

KnightofPhoenix wrote...

IanPolaris wrote...
In short, if the Chantry is going to try an Exalted March on Orzammar to put the circles in their place, it has to be done SOON as in within the next decade and Celene I will almost certainly be Empress in ten years.

-Polaris

What if she is assassinated by religious zealots and they put a zealot on the throne with the Chantry's blessings?

Yes, people that are desperate do crazy things.

The Chantry depends on the goodwill of Orlais.  Trying to assassinate the Empress goes way over the top assuming that the chantry could pull it off at all (remember Celene is a veteran of Orlesian politics with her own bevy of bards!)  If the Chantry tries and fails the consequences to the Chnatry would be catastrophic....far more so than allowing apostate circles in Fereldan.

There is no way that Celene I will send her troops over the Fereldan border unless Fereldan explicitly says OK which pretty much rules out any Orlesian troops for an exalted march.  Skadi has the right of it.

-Polaris

[LobselVith8]

KnightofPhoenix wrote...

Previous Exalted Marches were not based on Templars Skadi. The bulk of the effort was made by nations. If both the Chantry and Orlais are fearing the loss of control and the shift in the balance of power that is not in their favor, they might try to take Orzammar. If Orlais / Chantry have absolute control over the resource, they might believe that it will put them back into the fray.

Which means they'd need to deal with an army of apostates, golems, and battle-hardened dwarves who fight darkspawn on a regular basis. Looking at the other epilogue, even when an inept leader like Harrowmont is at the reigns and Branka kidnapping people from the surface, they can't penetrate Orzammar's defenses. I doubt with an intelligent King like Bhelen that they would fair any better.



I don't envy the Chantry if it's really that stupid. And the lyrium supply isn't infinite, the templars are going to feel the burn if the war against Orzammar lasts a while, which it can given how the kingdom is within the very heart of a mountain. In fact, would they even know how to extract the lyrium if they won?

[KnightofPhoenix]

IanPolaris wrote...
The Chantry depends on the goodwill of Orlais.  Trying to assassinate the Empress goes way over the top assuming that the chantry could pull it off at all (remember Celene is a veteran of Orlesian politics with her own bevy of bards!)  If the Chantry tries and fails the consequences to the Chnatry would be catastrophic....far more so than allowing apostate circles in Fereldan.

There is no way that Celene I will send her troops over the Fereldan border unless Fereldan explicitly says OK which pretty much rules out any Orlesian troops for an exalted march.  Skadi has the right of it.

-Polaris

Again, desperate people can do stupid things.

I am not trying to argue that it's smart. But that it's plausible.

And if Ferelden falls into civil war, their ok means nothing.

[IanPolaris]

KnightofPhoenix wrote...

And Nevarra has the blasted hills to worry about and if Orlais thinks that its decline is inevitable, that a war sooner rather than later would be the best thing to do (or so they might htink). And if Ferelden falls into civil war, voila.

If that is the case then Orlais should have invaded Fereldan during the blight (which indeed was Loghain's primary fear).  The fact she didn't should tell you that you are reading Nevarra and Orlais completly incorrectly.  The rebellian in the blasted hills is only a nuisance for Nevarra.  If Orlais gets tangled up in a war in Fereldan that lasts years (and any seige of Orzammar would), then it's easy pickings for Nevarra, Blasted Hills or no Blasted Hills, and Celene I knows it!  That's why she'll tell the Divine (politely) to put a sock in it.

-Polaris

[KnightofPhoenix]

LobselVith8 wrote...
 In fact, would they even know how to extract the lyrium if they won?

Surface dwarves I guess.

Unless they are really consideering an exalted march without thinking everything through. Again, I might be giving them too much credit.

[IanPolaris]

KnightofPhoenix wrote...

IanPolaris wrote...
The Chantry depends on the goodwill of Orlais.  Trying to assassinate the Empress goes way over the top assuming that the chantry could pull it off at all (remember Celene is a veteran of Orlesian politics with her own bevy of bards!)  If the Chantry tries and fails the consequences to the Chnatry would be catastrophic....far more so than allowing apostate circles in Fereldan.

There is no way that Celene I will send her troops over the Fereldan border unless Fereldan explicitly says OK which pretty much rules out any Orlesian troops for an exalted march.  Skadi has the right of it.

-Polaris

Again, desperate people can do stupid things.

I am not trying to argue that it's smart. But that it's plausible.

And if Ferelden falls into civil war, their ok means nothing.

It's not even plausible.  As for civil war, that won't happen until at least the current King/Queen dies without heirs and honestly the Chantry can't wait that long if it's going to try to solve it's circle issue.

I'm sorry, KoP but there are too many factors working against an Exalted March against Orzammar to make it even remotely feasable.  Even in Civil War, Fereldan would be hostile since all Fereldans hate and despise Orlais because of the occupation....fighting Orlesians would be something both sides could agree on.

-Polaris

[KnightofPhoenix]

IanPolaris wrote...
If that is the case then Orlais should have invaded Fereldan during the blight (which indeed was Loghain's primary fear).  The fact she didn't should tell you that you are reading Nevarra and Orlais completly incorrectly.  The rebellian in the blasted hills is only a nuisance for Nevarra.  If Orlais gets tangled up in a war in Fereldan that lasts years (and any seige of Orzammar would), then it's easy pickings for Nevarra, Blasted Hills or no Blasted Hills, and Celene I knows it!  That's why she'll tell the Divine (politely) to put a sock in it.

-Polaris

Actually, Orlais setting up a defensive paramater in the Frostback mountain is a much smarter way with dealign with the Blight, then walking in Ferelden and fightting on two fronts.
If thjere was no blight and Ferelden fell into civil war. You don't think Orlais would have tried to interfer in one way or the other?

And the rebgellion hasen't even started in the Blasted Hills (a rmienral rich region). It's starting to brew. If it explodes, I do not think it would be a minor nuissance. It's a key region and the peopel there hate Nevarra (due to harsh taxes). 

[IanPolaris]

KnightofPhoenix wrote...

LobselVith8 wrote...
 In fact, would they even know how to extract the lyrium if they won?

Surface dwarves I guess.

Unless they are really consideering an exalted march without thinking everything through. Again, I might be giving them too much credit.

You are giving them too much credit.  Also there is some evidence that surface dwarves lose their resistance/immunity to raw lyrium....and that's assuming that surface dwarves even know how to mine and process lyrium which I doubt.

-Polaris

[Skadi_the_Evil_Elf]

KnightofPhoenix wrote...


Other than Tevinter (and why does the Chantry even let them have it?), what countries would buy it? For what exactly? This isn't exactly a human friendly substance afterall and only dwarves can manipualte it. 

Who says they go through the Chantry to get it?

And dwarves refine the stuff, then sell it to surfacers who then use it. refined lyrium is less dangerous on its own, and further manipulation

The smuggler in Dust town has a mage buyer. Not a nation or a huge market, just a mage.

That's one smuggler, and you are delivering it to one customer. That's all we see in game. But smugglers and dealers never only have one single customer. Dealers often have many customers. What we see in game is a downsized version of what the situation is. I mean, obviously, Orzammar has more than a few dozen dwarves (the number you encounter in Orzammar).

So we can safely assume Rogek (that was his name) has numerous customers on the surface. Since it sounds like Godwin is his main customer, or even only customer, in the tower, then he must have customers elsewhere.

Remember, there are organizations, probably many, like the mage collective, who will buy smuggled, illegal lyrium. As well as numerous other hidden cabals.

If all the Libertarians in the circles of Thedas decide enough is enough and start up a major conflict with the Chantry, the market for smuggled lyrium just increased 100 fold.

[KnightofPhoenix]

IanPolaris wrote...
I'm sorry, KoP but there are too many factors working against an Exalted March against Orzammar to make it even remotely feasable.  Even in Civil War, Fereldan would be hostile since all Fereldans hate and despise Orlais because of the occupation....fighting Orlesians would be something both sides could agree on.

-Polaris

Really? Most nobles sided with Orlais during the invasion. I don't think it will be a unifying force at all, especially if they see that Orlais is only concerned with Orzammar and is not marching on Denerim. Why would they care?

As for Anora and Alistair living too long. Anything can happen. Including assassination.

Modifié par KnightofPhoenix, 11 janvier 2011 - 05:08 .

[Skadi_the_Evil_Elf]

IanPolaris wrote...




You are giving them too much credit.  Also there is some evidence that surface dwarves lose their resistance/immunity to raw lyrium....and that's assuming that surface dwarves even know how to mine and process lyrium which I doubt.

-Polaris

You are correct. It is stated in a few codexes and conversations that surface dwarves lose their resistance to both magic and lyrium, and are as vulnerable to it as any human or elf.

[KnightofPhoenix]

Skadi_the_Evil_Elf wrote...
That's one smuggler, and you are delivering it to one customer. That's all we see in game.

But you are using that as evidence that the black market is very lucrative, perhaps mroe so than the Chantry buying it. We don't know.

We don't even know if Orzammar as a city-state is part of that black market.

[IanPolaris]

KnightofPhoenix wrote...

Actually, Orlais setting up a defensive paramater in the Frostback mountain is a much smarter way with dealign with the Blight, then walking in Ferelden and fightting on two fronts.
If thjere was no blight and Ferelden fell into civil war. You don't think Orlais would have tried to interfer in one way or the other?

Given what we've read of Celene I, no. I don't.  I think Celene understands that unless she can conquer and hold all of Fereldan (and that has been shown to be false), it's much better to keep her nose out of it given Fereldan feelings towards Orlais and given that Nevarra is a threat.

And the rebgellion hasen't even started in the Blasted Hills (a rmienral rich region). It's starting to brew. If it explodes, I do not think it would be a minor nuissance. It's a key region and the peopel there hate Nevarra (due to harsh taxes). 

I do.  Honestly, rebellions almost always fail unless the central authority can not supply enough troops to crush it or the rebellian gains sympathizes within the central authority.  Look at the Peasant's rebellians in the 1500s.  Massive armies....and easily crushed.

The only reason the US Revolution suceeded was because the Atlantic Ocean kept Britain from sending enough forces over fast enough to crush it (see Ireland for what would have happened if she could have) AND the Rebels essentially seized the local centers of authority.  In the French Revolution, the army essentially either sat on it's hands or supported revolutionaries....and even then it was a series of missteps that led to the end of the French Monarchy (which happened several years after the initial revolution happened btw).

-Polaris

[KnightofPhoenix]

Skadi_the_Evil_Elf wrote...
You are correct. It is stated in a few codexes and conversations that surface dwarves lose their resistance to both magic and lyrium, and are as vulnerable to it as any human or elf.

I thought that was Assembly propaganda.

Oh well I guess that adds a new dimension to brother Burkel. Convert the heathens and let them serve the Maker by mining blue goo.

[IanPolaris]

KnightofPhoenix wrote...

Really? Most nobles sided with Orlais during the invasion. I don't think it will be a unifying force at all, especially if they see that Orlais is only concerned with Orzammar and is not marching on Denerim. Why would they care?

As for Anora and Alistair living too long. Anything can happen. Including assassination.

Unlike Orlais, however, Fereldan nobles are answerable (at least in practice) to the will of their subjects, and given the excesses of the Orlesian occupation, that will not be repeated.  "Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me."  Honestly, the threat of Orlais was Loghains' strongest point and very convincing to a large number of nobles...many of whom did side with Orlais before they knew better.

As for marching on Orzammar, the Landsmeet will see "Orlais is invading us again, stab, stab, stab,kill, kill, kill."  I dare you to tell me I'm wrong about this given Fereldan sensibilities.

You seem to assume that Anora/Alistair/Celene are all protected by a bunch of chuckleheads.  You can't COUNT on assassination to work or make it part of your argument.  You just can't.

-Polaris

[KnightofPhoenix]

IanPolaris wrote...
Given what we've read of Celene I, no. I don't.  I think Celene understands that unless she can conquer and hold all of Fereldan (and that has been shown to be false), it's much better to keep her nose out of it given Fereldan feelings towards Orlais and given that Nevarra is a threat.

She doesn't even need to interfere militarily, but she would try to put a friendly government in power. That would be the smart thing to do. To put or help put on the throne the monarch that would be most favorable to Orlesian interests.

Seldom do countries not interfere in some fashion or the other in neibghouring civil wars (see Lebanon and recently Iraq). They all try to maneuvre politically to try and influence the outcome. Orlais is a superpower and has a lot of interests in doing so.

I do.  Honestly, rebellions almost always fail unless the central authority can not supply enough troops to crush it or the rebellian gains sympathizes within the central authority.  Look at the Peasant's rebellians in the 1500s.  Massive armies....and easily crushed.
-Polaris

It doesn't even need to be succesful. It would however delay if not outright prevent further military campaigns.

What screwed Napoleon really? Spain before Russia. The rebellion was such a burden on him that it kept him from committing his forces elsewhere where they are needed.
Now I don't know the terrain of the Blasted hills, if they are faovrable for guerilla warfare and all thsoe details. What we do know is that the popoulation hates Nevarra, are financed by Orlais and that the region is wealthy.

I can certainly see it becoming something other than a minor nuissance.

[KnightofPhoenix]

IanPolaris wrote...
As for marching on Orzammar, the Landsmeet will see "Orlais is invading us again, stab, stab, stab,kill, kill, kill."  I dare you to tell me I'm wrong about this given Fereldan sensibilities.

Isn't the civil war in Ferelden enough proof? The Bannorn didn't give a crap about it and they didn't care what Loghain said nor did they care about Orlesian legions on the borders. In the game, heck no one cared except Loghain, which is stupid. 

If a civil war errupts and Orlais helps install a friendly regime, and it makes it clear that they only want Orzammar, I dont' think Ferelden nobility that have proven how idiotic and divisive they are, are going to care.

And I find it hard to believe taht the banns who fight each other over wool and trees, are really accountable to their subjects.

IanPolaris wrote...
You seem to assume that Anora/Alistair/Celene are all protected by a bunch of chuckleheads.  You can't COUNT on assassination to work or make it part of your argument.  You just can't.

-Polaris

In a world where  there is something like the Antivan crows (who can stop whole invasions by simply picking off generals), yes assassinations are something to consider always.

Modifié par KnightofPhoenix, 11 janvier 2011 - 05:21 .

[Skadi_the_Evil_Elf]

KnightofPhoenix wrote...

Skadi_the_Evil_Elf wrote...
That's one smuggler, and you are delivering it to one customer. That's all we see in game.

But you are using that as evidence that the black market is very lucrative, perhaps mroe so than the Chantry buying it. We don't know.

We don't even know if Orzammar as a city-state is part of that black market.

I'm using it as an example, by logical extnesion. there's alot of things in game that are assumed as a given, even though we see nothing at all to support it in game.

[IanPolaris]

KnightofPhoenix wrote...

IanPolaris wrote...
Given what we've read of Celene I, no. I don't.  I think Celene understands that unless she can conquer and hold all of Fereldan (and that has been shown to be false), it's much better to keep her nose out of it given Fereldan feelings towards Orlais and given that Nevarra is a threat.

She doesn't even need to interfere militarily, but she would try to put a friendly government in power. That would be the smart thing to do. To put or help put on the throne the monarch that would be most favorable to Orlesian interests.

Seldom do countries not interfere in some fashion or the other in neibghouring civil wars (see Lebanon and recently Iraq). They all try to maneuvre politically to try and influence the outcome. Orlais is a superpower and has a lot of interests in doing so.

True, but the one think you DON'T do during such a civil war is openly send your troops in if you are generally hated in that other country.  Even Syria regarding Lebannon was smart enough not to do a full invasion of the later during it's long civil war (although Syria did essentially annex the Bakaa valley).

Thus, Orlais in such a case would be even LESS likely to participate in an exalted march.

I do.  Honestly, rebellions almost always fail unless the central authority can not supply enough troops to crush it or the rebellian gains sympathizes within the central authority.  Look at the Peasant's rebellians in the 1500s.  Massive armies....and easily crushed.
-Polaris

It doesn't even need to be succesful. It would however delay if not outright prevent further military campaigns.

What screwed Napoleon really? Spain before Russia. The rebellion was such a burden on him that it kept him from committing his forces elsewhere where they are needed.
Now I don't know the terrain of the Blasted hills, if they are faovrable for guerilla warfare and all thsoe details. What we do know is that the popoulation hates Nevarra, are financed by Orlais and that the region is wealthy.

I can certainly see it becoming something other than a minor nuissance.

Even with a rebellian in Spain, Napolean was able to field  an army well over 100,000 men dwarfing any other in Europe when he started the Russian campaign.

Seriously man, you are way overstating your case.

-Polaris