Regarding the Vichy French example: the problem is that there is no direct analogue for the situation, so everything is going to have some significant differences. Nevertheless, I still feel that in this particular situation, the leverage that anyone progressive would have within the system without a significant disruption causing a massive opinion shift is minimal. Orsino lacked the power to even prevent things from getting worse, let alone make any progress. Even a mage who is a major adviser to the King of Ferelden has little ability to change the situation in that nation's actual circle.
So while the parallel does not share leadership, it does share the issue of apologists and appeasers versus those who would actively revolt. Also, there are some apostate organizations, as we see in DA:O. I get teh feeling that the mage underground was decimated in Kirkwall, not internationally.
KnightofPhoenix wrote...
I think the mages saw an opportunity - a 50% shot at winning a war, versus an unknowable period of waiting until suddenly some social change occurred that would allow an outside force to see mages as a stragegic force worth working with.
What 50% chance? The mages were utterly pathetic in Kirkwall. They don't have military training. They lack ressources. They have no access to Lyrium. And they succumb to demons at the drop of a feather. And most people fear and hate them. And al their Circles are in cities.
And then what after winning the war?
Here is how I percieve the situation: the mages will take this disruption in security as a unique chance to communicate openly with multiple potential allies without having to wait for them to initiate it. Each country will have the ability to decide independently whether the mages are a valuable enough military resource to form an alliance with, and if one country does form such an alliance (such as Ferelden) other nations may find a significant number of their mages defecting to that country, seriously deflating their military might. If only a single nation decides to do this, they are vulnerable to an exalted march. However, given Orlais and the Chantry's recent aggression, combined with the threat of the Qunari, I doubt most countries will give up the military advantage of cooperative mages very easily.
If the mages in the circle did not have some plan to gather allies, I do not believe they would have chosen to rise up. They could have just as easily distanced themselves from the Kirkwall event and chosen not to rise up. I'll be interested in seeing what exactly did happen, when it is revealed. I imagine that some Knight Commanders went crazy and did initiate violence, but that many of the more powerful and liberal circles decided to participate after rational debate on the subject.
KnightofPhoenix wrote...
I actually believe that the Chantry has overextended itself recently, and is somewhat weakened.
It is weakening and all that is happening is a symptom of its weakness. But it did not require going blindly into war, the systemic changes alone are weakening it.
The fundamental question is this: were the mages forced to rise up in self defense after the Chantry, or did they decide to rise up in response from within? I believe it was the latter, so I believe the resulting movement does and will have significant organization.
That's not the important part. Without allies, mages won't be able to do anything and their idiocy in Kirkwalll pretty much demonstrated that they will have a hard time making allies. Mages on their own, even if oganized, won't be able to do much unless they impose themselves as a magocracy, so we are back at square 1.
Could they sallveage the mess Anders help create? Mabee, and I'll give credit to those who do. Anders however, will always remain a blind reckless short sighted obsessive fool in my eyes.
I believe that this was a fairly good time for a revolution: Ferelden is likely to have an openly mage-sympathetic ruler in many cases (even without a mage warden, there is Wynne), Orzammar may have a circle. Orlais is actively engaged in aggression against the state with the most powerful circle outside of Tevinter. The Qun are breathing down everyone's neck.
That's why I think knowing what the Chantry boom achieved is important to our intepretation of its significance. If it was meant as a rallying cry to incite other mages to change their opinions about the viability and necessity of a revolt, I think it succeeded.
Kirkwall mages couldn't succeed because they were already cowed, weakened, unprepared, and unable to productively gain allies. Also, that place is inherently crazy, I believe... it reduces the sanity of anyone in it by 1D6 per month, if you know what I mean.
I don't think Anders was a genius, neither do I think he was a fool. I think he was, for a brief shining moment, the anthropomorphic personification of the cause of mages. He saw a lever, a symbolic act that would present mages with a unique message and opportunity, and he pulled that lever.
Whether or not the other mages manage to make productive use of that opportunity is for history to decide. But I think the offering of the opportunity is a neutral act, not a negative one.
And now I've got a plane to catch. I'll see you when I see you!
Modifié par CulturalGeekGirl, 06 juillet 2011 - 06:18 .