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The Anders Thread: Flash Fic Contest! Details on Pg. 2274


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#49201
maxernst

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berelinde wrote...

Wulfram wrote...

I find it highly unlikely that the Divine is considering an Exalted March. Leliana certainly does not say she is - and we also should remember that Leliana in Origins is extremely sympathetic to mages, which makes me doubt the Divine she is acting on behalf of is particularly hostile.

Origins Leliana is not the Divine's Left Hand. Whatever her feelings about mages were before she took the job, she must put all of that aside to serve the Chantry. So it looks as if Anders was not the only one to change.

During the Faith quest, Leliana asks Hawke to attempt to persuade Elthina to leave Kirkwall lest she be caught up in the destruction the Divine is sending. An Exalted March was definitely on its way before the Chantry goes boom. She might have had bigger problems than that afterward, what with the Circles breaking free of the Chantry across Thedas, but at the time Leliana comes to Kirkwall, those were the plans.


I'm still baffled as to who the Divine is planning an Exalted March against.  It would have made more sense in Act 2, when you had the Qunari.  It would be very funny if she were planning an Exalted March against Meredith for her flagrant misconduct, but I'm sure that's not the intent, since there would seem to be easier ways of disposing of her.

Unless...could Leliana be lying and want Elthina out of Kirkwall for some other reason.? But still, why would an exalted march be believable for Elthina.  We don't hear of widespread heresies and it would be hilarious for Leliana to be cracking down on heretics.  The Circle is locked up.  There are apostates, but you don't put together a march to handle a few apostates.  For it to make any sense, something has to be going on that we know nothing about.

Modifié par maxernst, 21 juillet 2011 - 01:43 .


#49202
maxernst

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SurelyForth wrote...

maxernst wrote...

The Ferelden Circle is a different situation.  Gregoir thinks all the mages are likely all dead or posessed, and it probably wouldn't be viewed as an atrocity.  It's not like he's been itching to Annul the circle for months.  As to Kirkwall, Meredith is convinced she'll find proof, but she's crazy, so who's to say?   How much proof is needed?  Gregoir found evidence of blood mages in Ferelden's circle and wasn't screaming for its annulment. 


Greagoir isn't a a) fanatic that's B) being allowed to run the city-state and c) is being further corrupted by a lyrium idol that can bring statues to life. 


But that's exactly my point.  Gregoir's would most likely be viewed as a justifiable annulment by other Circles, probably in part because of his reputation.  Meredith has a dreadful reputation among mages.  I think any annulment by her would be viewed suspiciously, unless the proof she found was extraordinary.  Besides, if she tells everyone in Kirkwall that Anders was supported by Circle mages, would it be so unbelievable?  He has been known to enter the Circle through those passages in Dissent, and possibly has links with a Hawke sibling in the Circle/among the Templars.  If Hawke shared the notes on the Rite of Tranquility with Cullen, Cullen could testify that Hawke (and by association) Anders have entered the Circle secretly before, and could have been maintaining contact with mages.

#49203
CulturalGeekGirl

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The Exalted march isn't ever called against one person. It's a "TO THE GROUND" call on an entire area, region, or people. The Dales, the Qunari, the Imperial Chantry, etc. If you're calling an Exalted March, you are declaring complete war on an area or people. Kirkwall and Orzammar have both been threatened, and I assume it would be very similar to what happened with the Dales.

#49204
ademska

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maxernst wrote...

I'm still baffled as to who the Divine is planning an Exalted March against.  It would have made more sense in Act 2, when you had the Qunari.  It would be very funny if she were planning an Exalted March against Meredith for her flagrant misconduct, but I'm sure that's not the intent, since there would seem to be easier ways of disposing of her.

Unless...could Leliana be lying and want Elthina out of Kirkwall for some other reason.? But still, why would an exalted march be believable for Elthina.  We don't hear of widespread heresies and it would be hilarious for Leliana to be cracking down on heretics.  The Circle is locked up.  There are apostates, but you don't put together a march to handle a few apostates.  For it to make any sense, something has to be going on that we know nothing about.

for one, there are more blood mages and demons in kirkwall per capita than anywhere else by far, in part due to meredith's oppression but also because the veil is so paper-thin there. it's a powder keg and they presumably want to extinguish it before it explodes. which, you know, it did. literally. if an exalted march had been called before act 3, the chantry in all likelihood would be one of the few things left standing, the heavy mage resistance in kirkwall that ended up spreading to the rest of thedas would have been stopped, and the chantry wouldn't have "fallen to pieces".

she had pretty good reason for seeing kirkwall as a problem.

but, uh, for two? divine justinia is hinted at being either crazy or evil. certainly not a sweet old grandma.

Modifié par ademska, 21 juillet 2011 - 02:07 .


#49205
ademska

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maxernst wrote...

But that's exactly my point.  Gregoir's would most likely be viewed as a justifiable annulment by other Circles, probably in part because of his reputation.  Meredith has a dreadful reputation among mages.  I think any annulment by her would be viewed suspiciously, unless the proof she found was extraordinary.  Besides, if she tells everyone in Kirkwall that Anders was supported by Circle mages, would it be so unbelievable?  He has been known to enter the Circle through those passages in Dissent, and possibly has links with a Hawke sibling in the Circle/among the Templars.  If Hawke shared the notes on the Rite of Tranquility with Cullen, Cullen could testify that Hawke (and by association) Anders have entered the Circle secretly before, and could have been maintaining contact with mages.

other mages might view any annulment and meredith badly, but they've obviously got no political voice.

if hawke sides with the mages and aveline married donnic, aveline states that donnic's rallied the guard to protect the public, and that meredith will get no support from the public or the guard. the riots aren't happening because anders destroyed the chantry, they're happening because meredith overreacted and called for a rite and the mages, thinking it unfair and having time to prepare, fought back. with the cause of mages then spearheaded by the champion, the public did not view her actions kindly.

if meredith had called the rite with any amount of proof against mages in the actual circle instead of a rogue apostate, that outcome could have been very different.

anders' actions incite an unjustified, unsupported annulment that turns public favor against meredith and possibly templars in general. they also granted mages the potential to fight back against a most likely inevitable rite.

Modifié par ademska, 21 juillet 2011 - 02:28 .


#49206
maxernst

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CulturalGeekGirl wrote...

The Exalted march isn't ever called against one person. It's a "TO THE GROUND" call on an entire area, region, or people. The Dales, the Qunari, the Imperial Chantry, etc. If you're calling an Exalted March, you are declaring complete war on an area or people. Kirkwall and Orzammar have both been threatened, and I assume it would be very similar to what happened with the Dales.


But again, what's the justification for an attack on a city that is already under Chantry control.  Sure, there are blood mages, but there were a lot of blood mages in Denerim, too.  There was that one house which was just crawling with them.  Most of the time when we face blood mages in Kirkwall, it was one or two and hordes of demons and shades that they had summoned.  Maybe you send more reinforcements to Meredith, but that's not an exalted march.

Now, it's possible Meredith (being paranoid) has described the situation in such dire, exaggerated terms that the Divine is considering an Exalted March, but in that event, presumably part of Leliana's job would be to assess the situation and determine whether it's justified.  That would actually make some sense.  But then, whether the Divine would approve the rite of annulment OR and exalted march would depend on Leliana's findings...and they're hardly a foregone conclusion.  Come to think of it, the Divine might have chosen the Seeker least likely to agree with Meredith.  It's hard to see Leliana as a hardliner, and the Divine knows her pretty well. 

Modifié par maxernst, 21 juillet 2011 - 02:40 .


#49207
ademska

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@maxernst

leliana's findings were that, as a result of fringe libertarian mages, she was nearly assassinated within a building that's functioning as a chantry office. she leaves affirmed of kirkwall's dangerousness.

#49208
Giggles_Manically

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Leliana: Alright lets see how bad this city is....
-peeks around a corner and sees a bunch of blood mages and demons attacking the Champion-
Leliana: Oh dear.
Hawke: What this is normal for me!
Leliana:..... that is not helping.

#49209
maxernst

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Humorous responses, but...I remember we had a discussion before of the extent to which game mechanics can be used to make inferences about the world. I never felt the "it's raining blood mages" in act 3 (or carta thugs in act 2) were really plausible reflections of what life in Kirkwall was actually like. Aveline sends her guards out patrolling the city one at a time, so if Hawke's experience were normal, they'd all die. So...nah, can't really buy it as an excuse for an exalted march. Do we even know if she was there the night of the annulment?\\

Besides, Leliana's used to being attacked by lunatic mages for no apparent reason. It should bring back fond memories of Ferelden.

#49210
legbamel

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maxernst wrote...

CulturalGeekGirl wrote...
The Exalted march isn't ever called against one person. It's a "TO THE GROUND" call on an entire area, region, or people. The Dales, the Qunari, the Imperial Chantry, etc. If you're calling an Exalted March, you are declaring complete war on an area or people. Kirkwall and Orzammar have both been threatened, and I assume it would be very similar to what happened with the Dales.


But again, what's the justification for an attack on a city that is already under Chantry control.  Sure, there are blood mages, but there were a lot of blood mages in Denerim, too.  There was that one house which was just crawling with them.  Most of the time when we face blood mages in Kirkwall, it was one or two and hordes of demons and shades that they had summoned.  Maybe you send more reinforcements to Meredith, but that's not an exalted march.

Now, it's possible Meredith (being paranoid) has described the situation in such dire, exaggerated terms that the Divine is considering an Exalted March, but in that event, presumably part of Leliana's job would be to assess the situation and determine whether it's justified.  That would actually make some sense.  But then, whether the Divine would approve the rite of annulment OR and exalted march would depend on Leliana's findings...and they're hardly a foregone conclusion.  Come to think of it, the Divine might have chosen the Seeker least likely to agree with Meredith.  It's hard to see Leliana as a hardliner, and the Divine knows her pretty well. 

Don't forget the group of blood mages that was kidnapping Templars and implanting demons in them.  I never did understand Leliana's reasoning that, because an outside faction was perpetrating attacks in Kirkwall, it merited an Exalted March.  Then again, I don't understand a lot about Divine Justinia.

#49211
maxernst

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legbamel wrote...

maxernst wrote...

CulturalGeekGirl wrote...


 

Don't forget the group of blood mages that was kidnapping Templars and implanting demons in them.  I never did understand Leliana's reasoning that, because an outside faction was perpetrating attacks in Kirkwall, it merited an Exalted March.  Then again, I don't understand a lot about Divine Justinia.


Well, that was a few years earlier.  To be honest, even though some of the later blood mages were harder to kill (the one at the Docks at the end with the Pride Demons, ack!), Tarohne was the only one who seemed to be a real threat.  The others were just into pointless homicide whereas she had a plan.  A crazy plan, and I don't think she could have gained control of the city, but she could have done serious damage.

That was probably my favorite quest in the game because it took such an unexpected turn.  I was expecting to uncover some terrible corruption in the Templars and when I came upon Cullen assaulting that guy, I was sure he was the bad guy...

#49212
CulturalGeekGirl

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Exalted Marches don't have to make any sense. A Divine once went so crazy she threatened to declare an exalted march on her own Chantry, because some mages had locked themselves in a closet.

#49213
maxernst

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CulturalGeekGirl wrote...

Exalted Marches don't have to make any sense. A Divine once went so crazy she threatened to declare an exalted march on her own Chantry, because some mages had locked themselves in a closet.


Well, threatening and doing are different.  I think it's weak writing (and I do think the lyrium idol-addled Meredith was a mistake) to use crazy as an excuse.  I can't think of the Catholic Church ever calling a crusade I would describe as "crazy".  Beziers was horrific, but I can understand how it happened.

#49214
CulturalGeekGirl

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maxernst wrote...

CulturalGeekGirl wrote...

Exalted Marches don't have to make any sense. A Divine once went so crazy she threatened to declare an exalted march on her own Chantry, because some mages had locked themselves in a closet.


Well, threatening and doing are different.  I think it's weak writing (and I do think the lyrium idol-addled Meredith was a mistake) to use crazy as an excuse.  I can't think of the Catholic Church ever calling a crusade I would describe as "crazy".  Beziers was horrific, but I can understand how it happened.


Well, you're talking to someone who's first origin was Dalish, and who heard of the exalted march on them from their perspective first. It's the only march that actually succeeded in completely destroying its target nation (or close enough to it). Whatever the cause, one thing is clear: it was originally an Orlesian war that became a march when Orlais started to lose. That's a lesson in itself: the wars of Orlais may become marches, when the Orlesians feel a convincing tale can be told as to why.

It actually makes a lot of sense to call an exalted march on Kirkwall. Kirkwall got as bad as it did due to gross Templar mismanagement, among other things. If an Exalted March was called, nobody would remember any story other than the one the Chantry told. They could blame Meredith's atrocities on magic, or posession, or whatever they wished. One of those things could be Ferelden, if Orlais happened to be ready for war with them then. A Ferelden apostate and a Ferelden champion, both came to the city to perpetuate Ferelden's barbasism. Blah blah, the story tells itself.

The Chantry will march on anyone if they feel they can tell a good tale after, especially one that strengthens their power. The tale they told after the march on the Dales was "elves are murderous barbarians who sacrifice children to their dread gods." This time it would be "Free mages cause madness, and all use blood magic. If you see a mage, tell a Templar. If there are too many free mages in your city, they'll have your minds, and we'll raze it to the ground." 

#49215
KnightofPhoenix

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maxernst wrote...
 I think it's weak writing


There's your answer, if you want a blunt one.
The Divine acting like an idiot like everyone else, is the result of poor writing and Bioware's general inability to make competent characters, or even reasonable ones when it comes to DA2, imo.

#49216
KnightofPhoenix

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CulturalGeekGirl wrote...
It actually makes a lot of sense to call an exalted march on Kirkwall. Kirkwall got as bad as it did due to gross Templar mismanagement, among other things. If an Exalted March was called, nobody would remember any story other than the one the Chantry told. They could blame Meredith's atrocities on magic, or posession, or whatever they wished. One of those things could be Ferelden, if Orlais happened to be ready for war with them then. A Ferelden apostate and a Ferelden champion, both came to the city to perpetuate Ferelden's barbasism. Blah blah, the story tells itself.
 


It doesn't at all.

This is a White Andrastrian country. You vastly overestimate people's ability to make up bs when it comes to acts of such a scale. Barring Kirkwall's commercial and strategic importance, that Nevarra is not going to let Orlais take over like that and its fall would have a rather large ripple effect, it's also the seat of their most crucial Circle. Them going as far as to march on the city is a clear show of weakness and excess, and if a mage debacle was apparently sufficient to rouse them up to rebel, imagine what would happpen if Chantry aggression was on such a scale as to invade an independent country, after its Templars illegimately took over the government (for 3 years). The story would have already been out.

It would have been a blunder at an epic scale.
When the alternative was simple. Remove the idiots Meredith and Elthina. That would have been much more likely to preserve the status quo, and Chantry monopoly on magic. 

Modifié par KnightofPhoenix, 21 juillet 2011 - 05:17 .


#49217
ademska

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@KoP, you vastly overestimate people's ability to admit fault within their own institutions.

sure, removing meredith and elthina would have solved a lot of the chantry's problems, but the same can be said for most irl political debacles. given what we know of her from dao epilogues, dao dlc, and da2, justinia is obviously shady and stubborn.

#49218
KnightofPhoenix

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ademska wrote...

@KoP, you vastly overestimate people's ability to admit fault within their own institutions.

sure, removing meredith and elthina would have solved a lot of the chantry's problems, but the same can be said for most irl political debacles.


Real life political debacles are generally much more complicated than mere idiocy.

No one said anything about them admitting fault in their institution. But for them to think that Meredith is competent, when she constantly showed the opposite and that she is even counter-productive for 7 years, is streching the limits to unbelievable levels. And to think Elthina is doing a good job when she failed to rein in Petrice and failed to do anything for 3 years when it comes to mages and Templars, is also strecthing it. And for them to further think that going for an Exalted March is a good idea, is simply completely unreasonable.

Would have removing Meredith and Elthina solve the Chantry's problem? No, this is dealing with symptoms and delaying the inevitable collapse. The Chantry collapsing anyways due to social / political trends and them, an aging institution, being unable to adapt (even if they try), would have been closer to being realistic.
But them just acting like morons is not.

Modifié par KnightofPhoenix, 21 juillet 2011 - 05:44 .


#49219
CulturalGeekGirl

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Oh, it's much smarter to remove Meredith and Elthina. But if you're too proud to do that, the March might seem like a good idea. My feeling is that the Divine is, as ademska says, unwilling to admit that doing so would actually help. I assume the Divine is fairly anti-mage herself, or she might have sought to work with Ferelden on a compromise, regarding their circle.

If you assume the Divine is simply too proud to realize that Meredith is a main cause of the unrest (and remember that there are people on these VERY BOARDS who will not admit that Meredith was a serious problem prior to act 3. People who saw the situation from the point of view of an omniscient narrator, not from the PoV of a few spies who are also likely to favor any explanation that absolves the Chantry.) It's easy to figure that either the Divine is unwilling to admit Meredith is the problem, lacks access to information that would reveal that this is the case, or simply learns of it too late to do anything.

Is that dumb? Sure, but no dumber than the politicians of [POLITICAL PARTY] failing to admit that [POLICY THEY FAVOR] is the cause of [THING THAT IS AN OBVIOUS RESULT].

Modifié par CulturalGeekGirl, 21 juillet 2011 - 05:53 .


#49220
ademska

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CulturalGeekGirl wrote...

It's easy to figure that either the Divine is unwilling to admit Meredith is the problem, lacks access to information that would reveal that this is the case, or simply learns of it too late to do anything.

Is that dumb? Sure, but no dumber than the politicians of [POLITICAL PARTY] failing to admit that [POLICY THEY FAVOR] is the cause of [THING THAT IS AN OBVIOUS RESULT].

exactly.

i understand political nuance, @kop, it's my job, and complexity does not preclude idiocy, ignorance, or pride. any of which are more than reasonable explanations for why justinia would never oust meredith or elthina.

edit: not to mention the bad pr in the face of what you've already admitted is a faltering institution with dwindling public faith.

edit the second: or, @CGG, the leaders of [GOVERNMENT GROUP] failing to admit that [PERSON OF AUTHORITY] is the cause of [THING THAT IS AN OBVIOUS RESULT].

Modifié par ademska, 21 juillet 2011 - 06:10 .


#49221
KnightofPhoenix

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CulturalGeekGirl wrote...

Oh, it's much smarter to remove Meredith and Elthina. But if you're too proud to do that, the March might seem like a good idea. My feeling is that the Divine is, as ademska says, unwilling to admit that doing so would actually help. I assume the Divine is fairly anti-mage herself, or she might have sought to work with Ferelden on a compromise, regarding their circle.

If you assume the Divine is simply too proud to realize that Meredith is a main cause of the unrest (and remember that there are people on these VERY BOARDS who will not admit that Meredith was a serious problem prior to act 3. People who saw the situation from the point of view of an omniscient narrator, not from the PoV of a few spies who are also likely to favor any explanation that absolves the Chantry.) It's easy to figure that either the Divine is unwilling to admit Meredith is the problem, lacks access to information that would reveal that this is the case, or simply learns of it too late to do anything.


How would invading Kirkwall help reach a compromise with Ferelden?
The Chantry is not just the Divine. It's an institution. Even if they have an idiot Divine, the institution itself doesn't become idiotic overnight.

Why would she be too proud to admit that Meredith is an idiot?
Cullen himself says that Meredith's policies are alienating the populace and that is dangerous, and he is a zealot. 
And Meredith's usurpation of power is rather obviously counter-productive and useless. And yes, I know that people in the game don't seem to mind as much as they should, because it's full of idiots.

And lack of info? You'd think the Chantry would make sure to have informants when it comes to their most important and crucial circle. They have people for that. They are called Seekers, who are now apparently relegated to hero worshiping stupidity.

Is that dumb? Sure, but no dumber than the politicians of [POLITICAL PARTY] failing to admit that [POLICY THEY FAVOR] is the cause of [THING THAT IS AN OBVIOUS RESULT].


Poor analogy. This is in the context of a "democracy", with a party admitting its mistake might greatly disfavor their chances to win at elections, not to mention special interest groups who benefit from such policies influencing them. Short sighted. Not completely unreasonable.  In the context of a dictatoship, either its ideological conviction, or much more likely, due to the rigidness of a neo-patrimonial system, with internal factions only caring about their self-interest.

The Chantry is not shown to have such problems. It's specialized and focused on that one thing, and them being counter-productive for no reason, is simply complete idiocy that a thousand year old institution would not suffer from. Until we maybe recieve more info about inner-Chantry dynamics that might make sense of this mess. 

Modifié par KnightofPhoenix, 21 juillet 2011 - 06:15 .


#49222
KnightofPhoenix

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ademska wrote...
i understand political nuance, @kop, it's my job, and complexity does not preclude idiocy, ignorance, or pride. any of which are more than reasonable explanations for why justinia would never oust meredith or elthina.


Complexity is never solely about idiocy and pride. Which is what I see here.
There is nothing even remotely reasonable about it

EDIT: I don't even see why I am wasting my time with this. Too off-topic and I am sure people are going to jump on my throat should I continue. I'd much rather focus on writing my blog and avoid the headaches. 
Cheers.  

Modifié par KnightofPhoenix, 21 juillet 2011 - 06:22 .


#49223
ademska

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KnightofPhoenix wrote...

Complexity is never solely about idiocy and pride. Which is what I see here.
There is nothing even remotely reasonable about it

let's not operate on the assumption that @CGG and i are morons and instead on the assumption that when we say "idiocy, ignorance, and pride", we're assigning general emotional sentiments to complex political reasonings.

and the chantry may not be a democratic institution, but its power is not absolute and its legitimacy is in decline, so it's in a very precarious position with its tensions with nevarra and either of ferelden's potential rulers.

#49224
KnightofPhoenix

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ademska wrote...
let's not operate on the assumption that @CGG and i are morons and instead on the assumption that when we say "idiocy, ignorance, and pride", we're assigning general emotional sentiments to complex political reasonings.

and the chantry may not be a democratic institution, but its power is not absolute and its legitimacy is in decline, so it's in a very precarious position with its tensions with nevarra and either of ferelden's potential rulers.


Nor where did I say you or CGG are morons. You showed general emotional sentiment, but no complex political reasoning.  
And so to deal with this precarious position, it thinks that invading a White Andrastrian city unprovoked is a good idea. Brilliant. That's so not going to keep pissing Nevarra off.

Anyways, like I said, I am dropping this.

#49225
CulturalGeekGirl

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KnightofPhoenix wrote...

How would invading Kirkwall help reach a compromise with Ferelden?
The Chantry is not just the Divine. It's an institution. Even if they have an idiot Divine, the institution itself doesn't become idiotic overnight.

Why would she be too proud to admit that Meredith is an idiot?
Cullen himself says that Meredith's policies are alienating the populace and that is dangerous, and he is a zealot. 
And Meredith's usurpation of power is rather obviously counter-productive and useless. And yes, I know that people in the game don't seem to mind as much as they should, because it's full of idiots.

And lack of info? You'd think the Chantry would make sure to have informants when it comes to their most important and crucial circle. They have people for that. They are called Seekers, who are now apparently relegated to hero worshiping stupidity.


Remember that the Chantry is a political institution that is also a religion. You seem to be of the opinion that it is the most politically apt who end up as the leaders of religions. The Divine doesn't have to be dumb. She just has to be not brilliant and have a degree of faith. If she has equal reason to believe two things, and errs on the side of dogma when it swings one way, it is easy to make misjudgements. Again, there are people on these very boards who believe that Meredith is a reasonable check to the blood mages, and they aren't even Andrastean! 

And I wasn't saying invading Kirkwall would help the Chantry reach a compromise with Ferelden. I'm saying that if the Chantry was in the habit of maneuvering politically rather than acting out of dogma and blind faith, they would have compromised with Ferelden. Orlais is prepared to go to war with Ferelden no matter what... and as a result, they might be preparing to portray Ferelden as an enemy of the Chantry, in case the war goes badly. That is exactly what they did to the Dales. The Dales weren't Andrastean, sure, but there were words in their Chant about how it was promised the elves. So they simply removed those words, and made the war. It's not hard.

The Chantry is not shown to have such problems. It's specialized and focused on that one thing, and them being counter-productive for no reason, is simply complete idiocy that a thousand year old institution would not suffer from. Until we maybe recieve more info about inner-Chantry dynamics that might make sense of this mess. 


The historical example I'm most reminded of is World War II. No no, not that side of it, not the side we're not allowed to talk about. The other end, the war in the Pacific.

When I was doing my East Asian studies degree, I read about the Japanese Empire pre-WWII, and how devastated they were by the war, how they lost their colonies, all that. And no matter how many books I read, how many lectures I attended, nobody ever told me why they attacked the US. It seemed complete madness: bring in the most powerful neutral country? What are you DOING, Japan? So far you've managed to be the most savvy Asian nation, the only one never to be colonized, you have colonies of your own, in fact. What do you have to gain? 

Finally I figured it out. It took some digging. Basically, Japan was trying to figure out what they needed to become a superpower as great as Russia or the US, immune to outside sanctions and the answer was clear: oil. Where was the closest place they could take over for oil? The Philippines. Who held the Philippines? America.

Now here came the question: could they take the Philipines? 

The answer was pretty much "No, unless the Americans don't really fight for it." But the advisors couldn't say that, wouldn't say that. Saying that was tantamount to saying 'look, we can't be an empire as powerful as any other, at least not now. It's just not do-able." If there was a chance, even a tiny one that would cost them everything, their pride demanded they try. So they said "yes. we can take it."

And that was the pattern for the whole war. They promised the impossible and spun bad news. You know the rest, it's the easy part of history: the 'how they lost the war' bit. But why they started the war... that's the example. They wanted a thing they probably could not get, and they didn't want to disappoint their leader, so they told their leader that it was do-able, and from there all their folly spun.

Modifié par CulturalGeekGirl, 21 juillet 2011 - 07:17 .