Plaintiff wrote...
Loghain's supposed "strategic insight" hasn't exactly done him any favours. All his plans fail, in fact, and he was ignoring the true threat of the Blight to begin with. And if you succeed in the Landsmeet, all the nobles are united against Loghain anyway, so morale is hardly an issue. If anything, the knowledge that a son of Maric still lives is going to be more of a morale boost than allowing a traitor and failure to join the ranks of the Grey Wardens.
Yes, let's take a look at his insights and plans.
1) Abandoning Cailan. Cailan was allowing Orlesians to march in Fereldan, which they've in the past used to force an occupation. As well, he was planning on wedding Celeste, which would have caused an Orlesian occupation by default and caused a civil war. Cailan's death, like it or not, was a very good thing for Fereldan.
2) Abandoning King's army and Grey Wardens. First, remember that Loghain had no way of knowing that this was a blight. There was no archdemon, no blight in century, and official word was that the last blight would be just that. He had no way to know Grey Wardens actually sense the blight, nor that they were quite literally required to end one even if it was a blight. With that in mind, abanding the armies probably saved the majority of Fereldan's troops. How do I know this?
http://i673.photobuc...pg?t=1302287955That is the darkspawn horde at Ostagar, extending into the mountains beyond what the eye can see even at a high vantage point. The battle was not winnable.
3) Poisoning Eamon. Loghain knew civil war would come if Cailan continued his current course, which he was. He also knew Eamon is a tool - the man cares more about the bloodline than who actually sits the throne - and would thus be a huge opponent and threat to Fereldan's independence if war came. So he incapcitated him. Note: incapacitated, not tried to kill. This has been stated by Gaider before. Remember that elf at Redcliffe? He was there to report if Eamon was to take a turn for the worse. But then things went south. There was no way to know Connor would randomly become an abomination, or that a legend akin to the Holy Grail would be suddenly found and used to cure Eamon. These are events so random and sudden as to be outside of logical planning or control.
4) Aligning with Uldred to get the mages help against the blight. A pretty good idea, really. Hell, the Warden does much the same thing. Problem? Uldred suddenly loses control and turns into an abomination. So, what, he should have planned for a mage insurrection?
5) Hiring assassins against the Warden. Well duh. Wardens are supposed to be some of the most skilled figters in the world and suddenly they oppose him. Not only that, but they're actively working against him and furthering the civil war. Short of marching an army to meet the party, not only is it completely reasonable and even warranted for him to take the action he does, he does everything logically possible. That the Warden survives is just a testimate to his/her skill.
6) Calling for the dwarves to help against the blight. Like he really could have predicted or planned for Endrin dying and a war of succession in Orzammar which keep he or his men from even entering the city, much less discuss an alliance.
Ultimately, Loghain's beginning goal succeeded. He did prevent an Orlesian occupation. How do we know this? Well aside from Cailan planning on joining with Celeste which would have effectively made the two countries one, especially if they have a child, there's the whole brink of war deal in DA2 because SURPRISE, Orlais wants Fereldan after all! Who ever could have predicted such a thing.