johnbonhamatron wrote...
One thing I'm curious about is where the idea of "the (spoiler-free) beastie we vapourised in the SM being a vanguard to replace Sovereign" came from, because in all my playthroughs, I can't find any hints of that in the game. Was it forum speculation that came up with that idea, 'cos I genuinely have no clue?
It's never been exactly stated that this was the case, but many believe it to be, because it makes the most sense. Plan A has seemingly flawlessly worked for potentially millions of years, so it's clearly the single best option. Losing Sovereign/Nazara
took that plan off the table. Building the HR would clearly allow the Reapers a chance to still execute plan A, thier far and away choice, so logic would say that's what was happening. A replacement for Nazara would be able to figure out why exactly plan A failed and potentially fix it all.
Plus, having a HR may give them other benefits, including a test run of thier new favored species, so why not do it now if the opportunity is there? It's a win win if they could have pulled it off. Now things have changed.
My take on things is this. We know that the Reapers are at least partially synthetic, and they have somewhat of a machine/statistical way of looking at things. So it's likely that the 50,000 year figure is a rough estimate of when civilization has reached it's peak point of when it will offer the most rewards for harvesting of technology, population, and whatever else is needed, but at the same time still be completely unable to fight back against the reapers.
I don't buy into the whole concept of the Reapers needing to strike because of low energy or any of that, because if that were the case, it would need to be an exact time frame for them to return. This is clearly not the case because part of Sovereign's job was to monitor known Civilization until it was clear it was time to strike, so to me, that proves that the Reapers hand is not forced due to energy concerns.
I think it comes down to technology. Obviously for whatever reason, the Reapers need civilization to develop to at least a certain point, but that's a tricky road to take, because technology doesn't stop improving. The Reapers are out in dark space, they got what they got, however powerful it is, once civilization reaches it's optimum harvest time, that window between them and the Reapers is constantly closing. Take the Thanix cannon, a very recent weapon, and anyone that upgraded to it in ME 2 knows it's worth. In ME 1, that weapon wasn't an option it didn't exist. Now it does, how much farther will things be able to go in another 2, 4, 10 years? There will come a time when the galaxy develops enough that it can fight the Reapers and win, especially if it's still got it's leaders.
I think you basically had plan A fail in ME 1, ME 2 was essentially the Reapers deciding the best course of action, that course was to still try plan A by replacing Nazara. There may be more going on in the background with ME 2, but primarily, I see it as a different route to thier best tactical option. Obviously, that also fails.
Now restarting plan A via another ME 2 style is awfully risky due to people being wise to it now, and having to start all over is a time issue. The technology of the galaxy has to be becoming some concern no matter how confident the Reapers are. If they take another long approach plan meaning years of waiting while they slowly plan things out and execute them through some new foot soldier, thier calculations have to tell them that it's going to be a battle, not a cake walk.
So now we get to arrival. Obviously it's faulty if you play it before the SM, so it's clearly meant for after that. I see it's unlock conditions as just a gesture to make it more accessable to players. I see the events of Arrival though as something that was always available to the Reapers but not at all preferred because of various tactical disadvantages. However thier long plans have been shot down, they can't wait infinitely for technology to get to a point where it may be a factor for them, and on top of all that, they clearly do have some emotion, and they are pissed off. So they slap thier little metal chests, scream "This Is Sparta!" and off to war it is.
I don't claim this outlook is perfect, but it's plausible enough and it's a way to have what we've been presented with so far make relatively good sense.