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[Dexter111]

So... Week 5 Sales are in:

I remember predictions that it would hit over 4.5 million in the first year even though it might "alienate fans of the first game": http://www.huliq.com...ceed-45-million

It is highly likely that this represents Biowares expectations also:

http://www.nowgamer....-dutys-audience

With Dragon Age II's release imminent, senior producer Fernando Melo feels the sequel has far more reach than Origins, even potentially attracting the same kind of crowd that flocks to gaming's biggest franchise, Call Of Duty.
Speaking to NowGamer Melo said: "We have data that shows there are a lot of people that enjoy playing RPGs although they won't necessarily call them RPGs. They'll play Fallout, Assassin's Creed and even Call Of Duty, which have these progression elements - you're putting points into things - but they don't necessarily associate that as an RPG. So we think that if we expand that out we'll attract a much bigger audience."

http://www.gamasutra...agon_age_ii.php

So Peter Molyneux got up on stage at GDC last year and said, "Our mandate for Fable III is to sell five million copies this time, and that's why we are making specific streamlining decisions." Have you had any mandate? "We want a bump. We want to reach out to more people. We want more people to like Dragon Age II than Dragon Age Origins."
ML: Huh! Okay. So I think that's a goal, but when you say "mandate," it becomes a much harsher thing. Mandate is a "you must," and the decisions will be made due to focus groups or something.
For me, I guess, fundamentally, there are more people who are ready to play RPGs than realize it. These are people who will play FarmVille. These are people who have shot enough people in the head that they've leveled up in Medal of Honor. They've gained XP and have received awards as a result. That's an RPG mechanic. They've played [Grand Theft Auto] San Andreas and they've run enough, and gotten buff enough, that their endurance is a higher. They've leveled.

Let's compare:
Dragon Age: Origins

XBOX 360
Week 1 - 335,941
Week 2 - 173,230
Week 3 - 96,340
Week 4 - 134,460
Week 5 - 107,755
Week 6 - 121,373
Week 7 - 153,855

PS3
Week 1 - 155,660
Week 2 - 72,304
Week 3 - 80,920
Week 4 - 77,414
Week 5 - 59,219
Week 6 - 63,881
Week 7 - 76,906


Dragon Age 2

XBOX 360
Week 1 - 392,508
Week 2 - 128,897
Week 3 - 61,735
Week 4 - 40,841
Week 5 - 26,630

PS3
Week 1 - 163,410
Week 2 - 61,210
Week 3 - 35,455
Week 4 - 25,976
Week 5 - 18,489

PC
Week 1 - 148,830
Week 2 - 38,002
Week 3 - 26,165
Week 4 - 16,082
Week 5 - 10,850

In total DA2 already hit 1.18 million sold (excluding digital distribution), mainly supported by the 400.000 Pre-Orders they had (with the Signature Edition only being available if you Pre-Ordered 1 month before release - thus skipping both reviews and other opinions, otherwise you'd have to pay for DLC), but DA2's Week 2 was already showing a dramatic decrease in number of copies sold over all platforms in comparison, as apparently bad word-of-mouth got around, Week 3 is an all-time low and shows less copies sold than in any of the first 9 Weeks of DA:O, in fact DA:O's sales increased significantly after its first 3 weeks (see links below) as good word-of-mouth got around. Week 4 and 5 the numbers go even lower.

If the trend stays it is highly unlikely that DA2 will have more than a total of 2 million copies sold over its total lifespan.
PC sales aren't exact/aren't available for DA:O and probably don't include Digital Distribution though I wouldn't think that would show a dramatic increase in numbers.

Also it should be pretty clear why Mass Effect 2 has been bundled together with Dragon Age 2 at this point.



Biggest question is, what does this mean for Dragon Age 3? Both from the length of the development cycle, the kind of content and design decisions as well as its sales now that the customer trust has been damaged.



Dragon Age 2 X360: http://gamrreview.vg.../dragon-age-ii/
Dragon Age 2 PS3: http://gamrreview.vg.../dragon-age-ii/
Dragon Age 2 PC: http://gamrreview.vg.../dragon-age-ii/
Dragon Age: Origins X360: http://gamrreview.vg...on-age-origins/
Dragon Age: Origins PS3: http://gamrreview.vg...on-age-origins/

Modifié par Dexter111, 16 avril 2011 - 01:55 .

[Shatterkiss]

I was just looking at those numbers myself. Yikes. While I really dislike DA2, I at least thought the sales would be good enough to justify an improved DA3. Now...not so sure. We'll have to wait a few weeks and see if the desperation gambit of including ME2 will help increase sales a bit.

[devSin]

Abysmal. But justified.

[Taritu]

The question is if there with be a DA3. I hope what the masters at EA learn from this isn't "drop this franchise, it isn't performing", but is "do it right, and keep it an RPG."

We'll see.

One thing, I think online sales are more significant than you believe, but I don't think that alters the picture much, people who buy online are even more likely to be effected by what they hear from other gamers.

[DTKT]

 I've always been curious.

How accurate are those numbers?

It seems to me that the sweet spot for publishers with a AAA franchise is 2.5-3 million. Less is considered a failure.

Modifié par DTKT, 08 avril 2011 - 02:12 .

[macrocarl]

I think DA2 is awesome. I hope they end up doing well.

[devSin]

I've always been curious.

How accurate are those numbers?

They can't be too accurate (and they don't track digital sales at all), but the metric is the same for both games, so you can probably make fair comparisons.

Maybe they'll come back up in May or after some DLC drops (I don't think free digital ME2 for PC is going to provide a noticeable bump).

Modifié par devSin, 08 avril 2011 - 02:14 .

[sphinxess]

PC is way off - must not be tracking steam

[Dexter111]

DTKT wrote...

 I've always been curious.

How accurate are those numbers?

It seems to me that the sweet spot for publishers with a AAA franchise is 2.5-3 million. Less is considered a failure.

They're not saying where their numbers are from, it's highly likely that they're cooperating with some retailers and extrapolate.
That said, they used the same method for both Dragon Age: Origins and Dragon Age 2 so the general "trend" should be about right and they also got the "we passed 1 million sales" mark synchronized with the Bioware Press Release.

Dragon Age:Origins has been reported to have sold more than 3.2 million back in February of 2010 (the article also uses "shipped" so likely also only retail numbers): http://www.gamasutra...llion_Units.php
It probably sold something like ~4 million total... maybe a bit more.

Modifié par Dexter111, 08 avril 2011 - 02:22 .

[NWNMarc]

Taritu wrote...

The question is if there with be a DA3. I hope what the masters at EA learn from this isn't "drop this franchise, it isn't performing", but is "do it right, and keep it an RPG."

Rest assured, if there is a lesson to be learned here, the suits will misinterpret it. Why they can't be satisfied with solid profit in a niche market I will never understand.

[neppakyo]

Dexter111 wrote...

DTKT wrote...

 I've always been curious.

How accurate are those numbers?

It seems to me that the sweet spot for publishers with a AAA franchise is 2.5-3 million. Less is considered a failure.

They're not saying where their numbers are from, it's highly likely that they're cooperating with some retailers and extrapolate.
That said, they used the same method for both Dragon Age: Origins and Dragon Age 2 so the general "trend" should be about right and they also got the "we passed 1 million sales" mark synchronized with the Bioware Press Release.

Dragon Age:Origins has been reported to have sold more than 3.2 million back in February of 2010 (the article also uses "shipped" so likely also only retail numbers): http://www.gamasutra...llion_Units.php
It probably sold something like ~4 million total... maybe a bit more.

I've been hearing that DA:O esitmated PC sales was over 2 million, and iic, around 3.5 million for the ps3&xbox.

Good post Dex.

[RinpocheSchnozberry]

As has been discussed to death, VGCharts are always to be considered works of fiction. It's amusing so few of you are in the know.

[Shazzie]

If all this is true...
I am not surprised by either the first week sales being higher than DA:O (it *was* going off the excellent success of DA:O, so of course it was going to sell well at first release), nor am I surprised by drastically reduced post first-week sales.

DA2 was a great disappointment for me. However... I do want a DA3. I don't want DA2 to be such an abysmal failure that DA dies an early death. I want the devs to go 'ok, our changes didn't quite go over so well, what are the successes of both DA:O and DA2 that we can combine to make DA3 better?' I definitely *don't* want DA2 to be such a failure that they don't get that chance.

So I'm kinda torn. I guess I don't want too much of a failure, but I do want a little bit of one? Tricksy... and sad....

I just want DA3, and I want to love DA3, whatever it takes to get there.

Modifié par Shazzie, 08 avril 2011 - 02:31 .

[Eclipse_9990]

I find this highly amusing indeed.

[Maugrim]

VGChartz is a load of BS and chips as is every other chart resource out there. Not just for DAII but for everything, whether or not the product is good, bad or mediocre. As video games finally gain more prestige there will probably be more accurate sales charts, much like we see in box office numbers for movies.

Today is not that day.

Modifié par makenzieshepard, 08 avril 2011 - 02:33 .

[naughty99]

It must be at least somewhat accurate, if during the same week VGChartz shows DA2 reaching the 1m mark, Bioware announces that DA2 sold 1m units.

[PirateT138]

Hate to say it, but that's the way it should be. When you hype the hell out of a game, then deliver a rushed product and everyone gets word that it comes up way short, sales should suffer.

I know I'm sure as hell not pre-ordering again until I hear about the game.

For clarification, I want it to fail just enough to make them really pay attention and go:

"Gee...we screwed up pretty bad on some parts of DA2...what do the fans actually want?"

"More button = awesome?"

And then I hope they beat that man senseless.

Modifié par PirateT138, 08 avril 2011 - 03:04 .

[eno detah]

NWNMarc wrote...

Rest assured, if there is a lesson to be learned here, the suits will misinterpret it. Why they can't be satisfied with solid profit in a niche market I will never understand.

In "suit" thinking, it's about "opportunity cost". If you have a prod dev team that can produce DA2 and sell N million units, or, instead, produce Game X and 3N million units, you'd opt for the latter.

Now of course, that assumes that they've identified an available and addressable market for Game X and that they can execute sufficiently well to take down all 3N million games. This is usually where the theory and reality of opportunity cost fails to match up for many projects.

Remember that AAA titles are expensive to produce (8+ figures); sales volume, price point, % uptake of DLC, etc are unfortunate business realities when so much capital is fronted (even if it's capitalized). It's one of the reasons why the MMO model is so enticing (Bioware's MMO has already passed $100MM in dev costs according to friends formerly at EA).

[YohkoOhno]

One thing that skews this is the fact that DA:O was released during the Holiday shopping season (early November), so that alone could cause the numbers to be skewed. Regardless of the game's quality, more people are buying this stuff in the Nov-Dec season than the March season.

[B3taMaxxx]

Does this reflect the people who purchased Origins and didn't like it, atleast enough to purchase the sequel?

[DomiiMai]

What's the point of this?
What do you honestly hope to accomplish?
Honestly getting you nowhere.

[neppakyo]

DomiiMai wrote...

What's the point of this?
What do you honestly hope to accomplish?
Honestly getting you nowhere.

Basically to show the trend, and the bad PR, bad word of mouth contributing to poorer sales. I think! Maybe!

btw, your sig looks better now

[DomiiMai]

Well this is accomplishing nothing really.
Not converting anyone, not changing minds, and not improving anything.
If one hates what one produce, then why bother?

[RohanD]

These are accurate numbers. VG Chartz is also offering pro accounts to clients. They would not be able to pursue this business model if their data was false. Believe it people, DA2 is a huge failure both as a game, and as a product. Game companies, especially Bioware, take heed. Do not p!ss your core customers off. They will not buy your stuff if you do that. Did you really have to learn the hard way Bioware? We tried hard to warn you, you didn't listen. You reap what you sow.

[Youknow]

Eh? I'd believe it more if it wasn't from THAT site. As for the deal, why do you HAVE to have the PC version? That's pretty useless. I already have the PC version. I feel so gimped. Kinda sucks. I got a PS3, then had to muck around with my computer to get ME1 and ME2 running, and bam, PS3'D. Oh well, at least I get transfers...?