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Dragon Age 2 - Week 5 Sales


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#251
ejoslin

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Yrkoon wrote...

Tharion wrote...

Good, DA2 blows. It's the worst game Bioware has released in ages, it's so bad that once I finally drag myself to play the rest of the game I will never again play it. rather play Origin for the 5th time than suffer through this poor fps crap.

Actually,   I  recently had a strange experience and I urge everyone who has Both games to do the same thing I  just did:    Finish DA2.  Then go back and start a new game of Origins.

I did that this weekend and was blown away all over again.  I had forgotten how polished DA:O's gameplay was.  I had forgotten how perfectly paced the story line was;  how amazingly detailed and tactical the combat was.   How satisfying the character level advancement  is.... and  How much *better* the graphics  and UI are (playing on PC).   I had forgotten just how *solid* DA:O really is  on every level, compared to DA2.

Initially, I enjoyed DA2.   But now,  (I guess you can call it hindsight?), I truly can't see myself playing it again.  perhaps a few months from now when I 're-forget' Origins or whatever, I'll be able to  do another DA2 run,   but right now  I can't bridge the chasm of difference in quality between the two games.


You left out how beautiful the dungeons are -- I suppose that falls under the better graphics.  Not only are they varied, but they have amazing detail as well.  I just finished the Dalish treaty quest, and the ruins really look like ruins, with collapsed stairways and rubble blocking the way, spiderwebs going from floor to ceiling that you can get caught in (rather than just a trap)... The finishing moves that were done by whomever killed the mob, not just by Hawke.  

How many more conversations there are with the companions, and how you can question them quite a bit more about what they said.  I could speak more with Morrigan and Alistair before starting the treaty quests (Alistair in Ostegar and Morrigan at Flemeth's hut) than I remembered.  

I have no clue why DA2 scrapped so much of DAO -- had they kept many of the elements, they could have made a far more complete feeling game.  They didn't have to tear it down to bare bones.  It is a really REALLY good game.

I liked DA2.  I'll play it again when it's patched.  But gah, it does not pull me into a whole different world -- I'm very aware I'm playing a game.  I guess the question is, is "good enough" ok when you're following up a game that is just stunning?

Modifié par ejoslin, 10 avril 2011 - 02:57 .


#252
MerinTB

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Sen4lifE wrote...
If you add up the first 4 weeks of one of the DA:O platforms (Example: Xbox) and divide it by for and the same for DAII, you'll notice there's not a significant difference in sales; though, they're not going to reach their goal of selling more.


Really?  What is your definition of "significant" then?

DA:O 4 weeks sales total, XBOX 360, vgchartz = 739,971
DA2 4 weeks sales total, XBOX 360, vgchartz = 623,981

739,971 / 4  = 184992.75
623,981 / 4  = 155995.25

That's a 16% difference in sale.  28,997 copies.  At $60 a pop that's $1,739,820 in sales.  For my state that would be $956,901 in sales tax.

What does it take to be a significant different in sales for you, 25%?  50%?

16% difference, for a business's bottom line, is VERY significant.

:blink:

#253
Dexter111

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Icinix wrote...

I heard words like this once...when EA bought Westwood...

I laughed at them then....I am not laughing now...

{smilie}


I wouldn't worry about that just now... Dragon Age isn't what is going to decide BioWare's future, but The Old Republic is... if that game fails economically for whatever reason BioWare is practically done for.

EA bought them for another chance at a "golden MMO" (and they bought Pandemic with it because they were a package deal just to close the studio at the first opportunity and merged Mythic with Bioware as you know) in the first place and they poured so much money into that project they'll rage all over Bioware till it goes the way of Origin, Bullfrog, Westwood or Maxis...

EA started the whole "MMO trend" with Ultima Online and is trying over and over to find a way back into todays MMO market since. They tried with Sims Online, they tried with Warhammer, they tried with All Points Bulletin, they tried with Earth and Beyond (that was the MMO Westwood was to produce and the last game they would ever produce btw. :P) and MotorCity Online, they tried with Need for Speed: World and they had several other projects that were cancelled in development (like Ultima Online 2... reason given was that they didn't want to damage their Ultima Online cash-flow, which was still high at that point, Majestic was another cancelled title)). They also still have "The Secret World" in development over EA Partners besides ToR, just in case.

ToR will literally make or break BioWare... if it is a huge success, Bioware will probably go the way that Blizzard did and be the almost untouchable "golden studio" with time and ressources to do their projects as they see fit, if it fails you better bet there will be lots of restructuring and "rethinking" of projects to come, so if you want Bioware to go on you better start stacking subscriptions (and better hope there will be no "lifetime offer", because those were never a good sign) xD



Regarding VGChartz, here's their methodology: http://www.vgchartz....methodology.php

  • All sales estimates on VGChartz are arrived at via a number of proprietrary and ever-developing methods:
  • Passively polling end users to find out what games they are currently purchasing and playing
  • Polling retail partners to find out what games and hardware they are selling
  • Using statistical trend fitting and historical data for similar games
  • Studying resell prices to determine consumer demand and inventory levels
  • Consulting with publishers and manufacturers to find out how many units they are introducing into the channel


And this interesting article that someone linked earlier in the thread should be read before dismissing it on no grounds: http://www.vgchartz....blame-vgchartz/

There will never be an "exact" way to tell how many copies have been sold, not even the publishers will know withing the margins of a few hundred or thousand (unless they use Steam/Digital Distribution only which reports exact numbers), but you can pretty much assume that the numbers are somewhat accurate and show the general trend, when polling shortly after an election from a few thousand people you also get a somewhat accurate result on the outcome unless your sample group has been selected with a bias and as we already established the time when BioWare announced the 1 million sales was pretty exact to their predicted numbers (minus Digital Distribution).

Modifié par Dexter111, 10 avril 2011 - 03:42 .


#254
ejoslin

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MerinTB wrote...

Sen4lifE wrote...
If you add up the first 4 weeks of one of the DA:O platforms (Example: Xbox) and divide it by for and the same for DAII, you'll notice there's not a significant difference in sales; though, they're not going to reach their goal of selling more.


Really?  What is your definition of "significant" then?

DA:O 4 weeks sales total, XBOX 360, vgchartz = 739,971
DA2 4 weeks sales total, XBOX 360, vgchartz = 623,981

739,971 / 4  = 184992.75
623,981 / 4  = 155995.25

That's a 16% difference in sale.  28,997 copies.  At $60 a pop that's $1,739,820 in sales.  For my state that would be $956,901 in sales tax.

What does it take to be a significant different in sales for you, 25%?  50%?

16% difference, for a business's bottom line, is VERY significant.

:blink:


Actually, it doesn't matter.  What is actually important about those numbers is the trend.  Initial high sales were based on preorders and people buying the sequal to DAO (IOW, DAO's popularity).  It's the sharp drop off that is telling.  DAO's sales increased over time, this is most likely due to word of mouth and renters buying the game.  DA2's sales are dropping over time to levels far below DAO's.  This generally would be caused by word of mouth and renters NOT buying the game.

Edit: The trend is important because it gives a clear message as to how well a game is being received.  I HOPE that the devs look at these numbers and draw the conclusion to make a game somewhere in between DAO and DA2, and not to further streamline and change DA to try to appeal to yet another audience.

DAO has an audience.  It was expanded to people who normally don't play that type of game because it was just that good.  DAO's success of the game (and with the DLC obviously being designed by a different team, and they had little enough success that they were discontinued a year early) should say enough.  Even if the lead developers weren't crazy about DAO for whatever reason, the game was a huge success, both critically and sales wise.

Modifié par ejoslin, 10 avril 2011 - 03:17 .


#255
Arken

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Dexter111 wrote...


EA bought them for another chance at a "golden MMO" (and they bought Pandemic with it because they were a package deal just to close the studio at the first opportunity and merged Mythic with Bioware as you know) in the first place and they poured so much money into that project they'll rage all over Bioware till it goes the way of Origin, Bullfrog, Westwood or Maxis...

EA started the whole "MMO trend" with Ultima Online and is trying over and over to find a way back into todays MMO market since, they tried with Sims Online, they tried with Warhammer, they tried with All Points Bulletin, they tried with Earth and Beyond (that was the MMO Westwood was to produce and the last game they would ever produce btw. :P) and MotorCity Online, they tried with Need for Speed: World and they had several other projects that were cancelled in development (like Ultima Online 2... reason given was that they didn't want to damage their Ultima Online cash-flow, which was still high at that point, Majestic)). They also still have "The Secret World" in development over EA Partners besides ToR, just in case.

ToR will literally make or break BioWare... if it is a huge success it'll probably go the way that Blizzard did and be the almost untouchable "golden studio" with time and ressources to do their projects as they see fit, if it fails you better bet there will be lots of restructuring and "rethinking" of projects to come, so if you want Bioware to go on you better start stacking subscriptions xD

I really don't want to see Bioware tank. I might actually have to start playing MMOs, and I really don't want to be playing MMOs as an adult, and telling everyone I know to play it. Plus there's Mass Effect. If things go bad then I can forget about spin-off games or future stories not about Shepard.

#256
DKJaigen

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Marionetten wrote...

Selene Moonsong wrote...

Actually, opinion has everything to do with it, just as you expressed your own opinion in response.

No, I described an actual scenario which takes place in the actual game. Being able to redeem Loghain has nothing to do with my opinions. It's simply there as an option. Meanwhile, these options are almost completely absent in Dragon Age II save Feynriel and some other quests with no real relation to the main plot.


There are plenty of choices in DA2 dont know what your talking about mate.

#257
Fallstar

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Urazz wrote...

I gotta say if you hoped that posting the week 4 sales would change things at bioware, you are horribly mistaken.

First, VGCharts is basically considered a work of fiction.  If I recall is it even able to chart digital sales on things like Steam and the like?

The second thing is that you don't even consider the time period that each game was sold in.  Dragon Age: Origins was sold during the holiday season when alot more people had money to spend on gifts.  Dragon Age 2 was released in the beginning of March.


Yes but Moder Warfare 3 is going to be released this Christmas, so Bioware's target audience will be playing that instead Image IPB (Joking)

But seriously. It would have been a silly marketing decision by EA to release the game then. Sure, it would have made for a better game, but from a purely business perspective, is kind of a silly move.

#258
SarEnyaDor

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Not that I care about sales numbers or know anything, but wasn't there a series of massive earthquakes and tsunamis the week DA2 dropped? Alot of people who might otherwise have had video games on their mind MIGHT just have wanted to spend their time and money helping actual human beings in distress.... just throwing that out there.

#259
Ronin2006

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SirLogical wrote...

But seriously. It would have been a silly marketing decision by EA to release the game then. Sure, it would have made for a better game, but from a purely business perspective, is kind of a silly move.


So rushing a game that many consider sub-par and that draws the ire of consumers is not a silly move from a business perspective?

I believe I wrote a thread on what is wrong with the Dragon Age 2 approach from a business perspective....

Modifié par Ronin2006, 10 avril 2011 - 03:56 .


#260
TJSolo

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SarEnyaDor wrote...

Not that I care about sales numbers or know anything, but wasn't there a series of massive earthquakes and tsunamis the week DA2 dropped? Alot of people who might otherwise have had video games on their mind MIGHT just have wanted to spend their time and money helping actual human beings in distress.... just throwing that out there.


That was in Japan, EA Bioware has not ported a Japanese version of either game yet. Maybe there was a Japanese console port for DAO at the beginning of the year but nothing of the sort for DA2.

Modifié par TJSolo, 10 avril 2011 - 03:59 .


#261
cljqnsnyc

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RPGs are supposed to be about choices affecting the world you live in.

DKJaigen wrote...

Marionetten wrote...

Selene Moonsong wrote...

Actually, opinion has everything to do with it, just as you expressed your own opinion in response.

No, I described an actual scenario which takes place in the actual game. Being able to redeem Loghain has nothing to do with my opinions. It's simply there as an option. Meanwhile, these options are almost completely absent in Dragon Age II save Feynriel and some other quests with no real relation to the main plot.


There are plenty of choices in DA2 dont know what your talking about mate.



RPGs are supposed to be about choices affecting the world in which you live. In the end , do the decisions you've made REALLY change the outcome? No matter what you do, no matter who's side you choose, all roads lead to exact same place.  So, have you really made a difference? IMO the choices in DA2 are few and far between......but that is a discussion for another thread. The topic here is sales. As I stated before in a previous post...if this game was so great and all the so called "haters, whinners, and those having a hard time dealing with change" are all wrong, why is all of THIS happening?

Modifié par cljqnsnyc, 10 avril 2011 - 04:05 .


#262
SarEnyaDor

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You're right TJ, no one in America could possibly have been affected, maybe be more worried about loved ones than video games. No one in America or Canada would possibly send money, donate time or resources to helping out their fellow man in another country, or possibly have other concerns aside from buying and playing video games. We all know that what hapens in other countries has no effect on anyone else any place else ever.....

Also, there was the epic flooding in Australia during the same time period, too. It was a bad month for alot of people for alot of reasons.

Modifié par SarEnyaDor, 10 avril 2011 - 04:09 .


#263
Pyrate_d

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SarEnyaDor wrote...

You're right TJ, no one in America could possibly have been affected, maybe be more worried about loved ones than video games. No one in America or Canada would possibly send money, donate time or resources to helping out their fellow man in another country, or possibly have other concerns aside from buying and playing video games. We all know that what hapens in other countries has no effect on anyone else any place else ever.....

you're really reaching there, bud

DA2 is massive failure, and it has nothing to do with an earthquake. Face it.

#264
Sabriana

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ejoslin wrote...

Actually, it doesn't matter.  What is actually important about those numbers is the trend.  Initial high sales were based on preorders and people buying the sequal to DAO (IOW, DAO's popularity).  It's the sharp drop off that is telling.  DAO's sales increased over time, this is most likely due to word of mouth and renters buying the game.  DA2's sales are dropping over time to levels far below DAO's.  This generally would be caused by word of mouth and renters NOT buying the game.

Edit: The trend is important because it gives a clear message as to how well a game is being received.  I HOPE that the devs look at these numbers and draw the conclusion to make a game somewhere in between DAO and DA2, and not to further streamline and change DA to try to appeal to yet another audience.

DAO has an audience.  It was expanded to people who normally don't play that type of game because it was just that good.  DAO's success of the game (and with the DLC obviously being designed by a different team, and they had little enough success that they were discontinued a year early) should say enough.  Even if the lead developers weren't crazy about DAO for whatever reason, the game was a huge success, both critically and sales wise.


I agree.  A big chunk of the early sales of DA 2 came curtesy of DA:O. In pre-orders and in people blindly running out and buying DA 2 because of DA:O (like me, idiot that I am sometimes). The drop-off is very noticeable and shows a trend that DA 2 is slipping fast.

I know that I told friends to rent of borrow DA 2 first, because it's not at all like its predecessor. I simply can't in good conscience recommend DA 2, especially not to my RPG gamer friends. I also know through a friend who works in an electronics/games/music store that DA 2 is returned at a high rate, while DA:O still sells after all this time.

And EJ! Congrats. I hope you have a nice celebrations and many more happy years w/hubby.

#265
cljqnsnyc

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wrong post

Modifié par cljqnsnyc, 10 avril 2011 - 04:35 .


#266
SarEnyaDor

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What? I PMed you, think you missed the post that mine was in reply to.

The point (without sarcasm to TJ) was that many people who may have bought it would feel frivolous spending 60 bucks on a game when real people are in trouble and therefore do not purchase.

Modifié par SarEnyaDor, 10 avril 2011 - 04:29 .


#267
ejoslin

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Sabriana wrote...

ejoslin wrote...

Actually, it doesn't matter.  What is actually important about those numbers is the trend.  Initial high sales were based on preorders and people buying the sequal to DAO (IOW, DAO's popularity).  It's the sharp drop off that is telling.  DAO's sales increased over time, this is most likely due to word of mouth and renters buying the game.  DA2's sales are dropping over time to levels far below DAO's.  This generally would be caused by word of mouth and renters NOT buying the game.

Edit: The trend is important because it gives a clear message as to how well a game is being received.  I HOPE that the devs look at these numbers and draw the conclusion to make a game somewhere in between DAO and DA2, and not to further streamline and change DA to try to appeal to yet another audience.

DAO has an audience.  It was expanded to people who normally don't play that type of game because it was just that good.  DAO's success of the game (and with the DLC obviously being designed by a different team, and they had little enough success that they were discontinued a year early) should say enough.  Even if the lead developers weren't crazy about DAO for whatever reason, the game was a huge success, both critically and sales wise.


I agree.  A big chunk of the early sales of DA 2 came curtesy of DA:O. In pre-orders and in people blindly running out and buying DA 2 because of DA:O (like me, idiot that I am sometimes). The drop-off is very noticeable and shows a trend that DA 2 is slipping fast.

I know that I told friends to rent of borrow DA 2 first, because it's not at all like its predecessor. I simply can't in good conscience recommend DA 2, especially not to my RPG gamer friends. I also know through a friend who works in an electronics/games/music store that DA 2 is returned at a high rate, while DA:O still sells after all this time.

And EJ! Congrats. I hope you have a nice celebrations and many more happy years w/hubby.


Thank you!  19 years...  I'm not sure how I managed to find a man who would put up with me for this long, but he's definitley terrific :D

I also think DA2 should be rented first.  It's not a bad game at all.  It's a decent game.  But it's not going to have as wide an audience because it's just not as good as DAO.  In fact, if there's any message there, it should be that RPGs do not need to be more accessible -- they just need to be really REALLY damn good.  I do wonder how a DA2 would have been received with the same basic story as DA2, but had the devs decided to not tear down so much of DAO and rebuild from scratch, but instead built upon DAO with just minor tweaks.  There most likely would have been just more to the game.

I bet it would have been far better received.  

Modifié par ejoslin, 10 avril 2011 - 04:27 .


#268
cljqnsnyc

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SarEnyaDor wrote...

What? I PMed you, think you missed the post that mine was in reply to.



If I misunderstood your comments, I apologize. Living in NYC, I've seen first hand how a major disaster can bring out the best in people who would normally be labled apathetic.



PS...I'll edit the post. I would hate to have someone else read my post and attack you because I've my misinterpretation of your point.

Modifié par cljqnsnyc, 10 avril 2011 - 04:34 .


#269
TJSolo

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SarEnyaDor wrote...

You're right TJ, no one in America could possibly have been affected, maybe be more worried about loved ones than video games. No one in America or Canada would possibly send money, donate time or resources to helping out their fellow man in another country, or possibly have other concerns aside from buying and playing video games. We all know that what hapens in other countries has no effect on anyone else any place else ever.....

Also, there was the epic flooding in Australia during the same time period, too. It was a bad month for alot of people for alot of reasons.



All that could be gotten from my post was that there is no DA2 product in Japan, therefore the sales(topic of this thread) were not directly effected.

I am not prepared to argue about how many people around the world would have bought DA2 if not for the natural disasters. I will not get lost in a world of baseless maybes.

Modifié par TJSolo, 10 avril 2011 - 04:38 .


#270
Guest_Sareth Cousland_*

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Yrkoon wrote...

Actually,   I  recently had a strange experience and I urge everyone who has Both games to do the same thing I  just did:    Finish DA2.  Then go back and start a new game of Origins.

I did that this weekend and was blown away all over again.  I had forgotten how polished DA:O's gameplay was.  I had forgotten how perfectly paced the story line was;  how amazingly detailed and tactical the combat was.   How satisfying the character level advancement  is.... and  How much *better* the graphics  and UI are (playing on PC).   I had forgotten just how *solid* DA:O really is  on every level, compared to DA2.

Initially, I enjoyed DA2.   But now,  (I guess you can call it hindsight?), I truly can't see myself playing it again.  perhaps a few months from now when I 're-forget' Origins or whatever, I'll be able to  do another DA2 run,   but right now  I can't bridge the chasm of difference in quality between the two games.


That pretty much sums it up for me too. I enjoyed DA2 for some time, but after the endgame, I am utterly dissatisfied with the experience. The biggest dealbreaker for me are all the eastern RPG elements (cartoony combat, cartoony graphics, characters like Fenris and Vael, huge swords...). I will not play DA2 again and won't return to the franchise as long as it remains on this track.

Just looked at a few old videos of DA:O and the art style is vastly superior and more mature according to my personal opinion - cp. Witch Hunt:

This is what elves should look like... and the size of the swords is fine... and the combat speed is okay as well...

[Edit] Even the barkspawn looks better! The mabari is a perfect example of something that was changed that needed no overhaul at all.

Modifié par Sareth Cousland, 10 avril 2011 - 04:39 .


#271
SarEnyaDor

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That's the thing though, they *aren't* baseless.

If you look at entertainment industries (movies, restaurants, games) right after a big natural disaster or a troubling news event revenues take an intial dip. At least until disaster-fatigue sets in and then they rebound.

People, in general, feel bad about spending money on things that aren't essentials when so many other people are in pain in the short term and refrain, but as the crisis goes on longer they get desensitized to it and begin to find avoidance activities.

I don't think it is the only cause, but it certainly is a factor, and dismissing it as completely irrelevant is short-sighted.

#272
Uzaik

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SarEnyaDor wrote...

What? I PMed you, think you missed the post that mine was in reply to.

The point (without sarcasm to TJ) was that many people who may have bought it would feel frivolous spending 60 bucks on a game when real people are in trouble and therefore do not purchase.


You give mankind too much credit. All those selfless, kind guys couldn't possibly represent more than 0.01% of the sales... bleh

#273
MerinTB

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SarEnyaDor wrote...
You're right TJ, no one in America could possibly have been affected, maybe be more worried about loved ones than video games. No one in America or Canada would possibly send money, donate time or resources to helping out their fellow man in another country, or possibly have other concerns aside from buying and playing video games. We all know that what hapens in other countries has no effect on anyone else any place else ever.....

Also, there was the epic flooding in Australia during the same time period, too. It was a bad month for alot of people for alot of reasons.


I'm sorry, SarEnyaDor, but such speculation is really a non-sequitor.  For the earthquake to have significantly affected sales for DA2, it should have significantly affected video game sales overall...


(all from vgchartz, so feel free to marginalize it like wikipedia everyone)

March 12th sales leaders:

Pokemon Black/White (DS) (26) 2,343,248
Dragon Age 2 (X360) (1) 392,508
Dynasty Warriors 7 (PS3) (1) 262,324
Dragon Age 2 (PS3) (1) 163,410
Dragon Age 2 (PC) (1) 143,830

March 19th sales leaders:

Pokemon Black/White (DS) (27) 954,837
Homefront (X360) (1) 588,810
Homefront (PS3) (1) 240,435
Killzone 3 (PS3) (4) 141,026
Wii Sports (Wii) (226) 134,039

March 26th sales leaders:

Pokemon Black/White (DS) (28) 529,310
Crysis 2 (X360) (1) 366,816
Homefront (X360) (2) 239,017
Crysis 2 (PS3) (1) 228,079
Lego Star Wars III: The Clone Wars (Wii) (1) 151,866

April 2nd sales leaders:

Pokemon Black/White (DS) (29) 314,069
Crysis 2 (X360) (2) 175,147
Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 2 Professional (DS) (1) 169,251
Super Street Fighter IV: 3D Edition (3DS) (6) 128,003
Crysis 2 (PS3) (2) 122,097


Other than the Pokemon's sales dropping at a good clip... after being available for 6 months... sales of the top 5 selling games each month seem to be about on par... and other games (RPGs, handhelds, Wii, shooters, whatever) all seem to do be doing fine despite the earthquake.  I'm sure there are lots and lots of people in Japan who aren't able to buy games, let alone care about games right now, but that's neither here nor there for Dragon Age.

I don't think it had a net effect on game sales outside of Japan hardly at all.  And no real effect on Dragon Age.

#274
TJSolo

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SarEnyaDor wrote...

That's the thing though, they *aren't* baseless.

If you look at entertainment industries (movies, restaurants, games) right after a big natural disaster or a troubling news event revenues take an intial dip. At least until disaster-fatigue sets in and then they rebound.

People, in general, feel bad about spending money on things that aren't essentials when so many other people are in pain in the short term and refrain, but as the crisis goes on longer they get desensitized to it and begin to find avoidance activities.

I don't think it is the only cause, but it certainly is a factor, and dismissing it as completely irrelevant is short-sighted.


I didn't dismiss anything of the sort. You took my post about a fact and ran with it on your tangent, a tangent that no one else in this or the other sales thread has brought up.

It is not irrelevant but the % of folks that would or have completely forgone entertainment purchases in order to donate to a cause is most likely an insignificant factor to a specific product's sales trend. Of course this is assuming neither production nor customers of that product are directly effected by a crisis.

#275
SarEnyaDor

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I concede.

I brought it up because I was frankly surprised no one else has brought it up, as I do think it is important to look at the outside factors that might have affected the numbers, not just the numbers themselves.

But like I said, what do I know? I'm just some girl who likes video games who wouldn't have DA2 now had I not pre-ordered it months ago. All of my disposable "play" money has been donated, and figured there are probably lots of others like me out there. Maybe there aren't.