Persephone wrote...
And as someone who is working in Sales and Marketing: Such a prognosis.....five weeks after the release? That's not how this works, much as you may want it to.
Respectfully, of course, I disagree in this particular circumstance.
Word of mouth can be a very powerful tool in determining the overall success of a product over the long term. Indeed, for the first 5 weeks, Origins looked good, but not fantastic on the sales front. But, after this its sales actually picked up, and remained at a reasonable level for an exceptionally long period of time (for a video game) - causing it to become one of Bioware's most successful titles yet.
Dragon Age 2 has good enough sales for its first 5 weeks. As Bioware have pointed out, it shipped 1 million copies faster than Origins did. Very impressive. Except that it's sales have decreased dramatically every week (if any of the sales statistics websites are to be believed in any sense, from a trend or absolute values perspective), and word of mouth is exceptionally negative.
Adding fuel to the fire, DA2 is now being sold at a heavy discount at many stores around the world, AND packaged together with a free game. The latter is a sign of a product not selling as well as hoped for. The former is a sign, from a retailer point of view, that the product is not selling, full stop.
Of course, there is absolutely no certainty in saying the sales of DA2 will or will not reach any reasonable given level. That's the essence of business. We can analyse whatever information we do have however and make somewhat informed assessments.
If you have something of interest to add from a sales/marketing perspective about why you think DA2 will/will not get to 2m copies, I'd be most interested to hear it.