1033 réponses à ce sujet

[Yrkoon]

SirShreK wrote...

Arguing with Volourn is not dis-similar to wallbanging. Carry on.

This is softball, man.

I used to debate world politics with Volourn back in the day.  On a different board.  You want to be ulcerated?  Try doing that for a few hours.  lol

[xkg]

SirShreK wrote...
YOu could use the following to guess the week 1 Online sales of DA2 and add it to the current prefactor of your fucntion: 663596,8146

http://gamasutra.com...llion_in_Q1.php

THis will give you the OVERALL sales of DA2 across all platforms online and hard-copies.
YOu will have to make two assumptions though: The steam sales are 30% of all online sales (Its supposed to closer to 50%l but lets give DA2 a wide birth) and the same function holds for Online sales as well. 

Ok. it's ready.

So i have assumed the best possible scenario for DA2 online sales:
105 000 = 1/3 of total online sales (in first 3 weeks).

Chart include all online sales (weeks 4...17 folows the same function as retail sales)

Modifié par xkg, 10 mai 2011 - 11:11 .

[YohkoOhno]

If you compare it to the DA:O chart, it does look like DAO's stuff spiked upwards, but that seems to coincide with the Christmas Holiday. I doubt it was word of mouth that caused that much of a spike. My bet would be if DAO was released in march, it would fall under the more traditional curve.

Does anybody have a similar chart for Mass Effect 2?

[Sharuko]

This is what happens when you ignore your core audience to make a game more "mainstream" and more for the "average gamer" and more for the "non-RPG" crowd. It backfires.

Sales are one thing, but DA2 put a negative stain on BioWare and their reputation. The reputation they build over the years with amazing games.

[Yrkoon]

YohkoOhno wrote...

If you compare it to the DA:O chart, it does look like DAO's stuff spiked upwards, but that seems to coincide with the Christmas Holiday. I doubt it was word of mouth that caused that much of a spike.

It's likely both.  Word of mouth drives holiday sales as much as anything else does, especially  in the 2009 holiday season, which  was saturated with big name titles. (read: competition)

Anyway, we won't be able to keep using the "holiday sales!" explanation for much longer.  DA:O was released less than 8 weeks before christmas.  I'm interested in seeing  what the week 9 sales look like, because for DA:O, that would be sometime in january, when Holiday sales are over with.

Modifié par Yrkoon, 10 mai 2011 - 12:46 .

[Everwarden]

Sharuko wrote...
Sales are one thing, but DA2 put a negative stain on BioWare and their reputation. The reputation they build over the years with amazing games.

That's what's really going to hurt them in the long run, not the lackluster sales of DA2. I, for one, will not buy another Bioware game. 

[YohkoOhno]

Well, I just think that if it wasn't a holiday you'd see a similar progression for DA:O, that downward curve.

[Corto81]

YohkoOhno wrote...

Well, I just think that if it wasn't a holiday you'd see a similar progression for DA:O, that downward curve.

It's 8 weeks. I don't think the holidays had THAT much of an influence.

DA:O had great reviews and great word-of-mouth. Sure, it had other factors, but overall, as Gaider put it, "it sold awesome because it was an awesome game".

[YohkoOhno]

Yes, but I'd rather see evidence that can be easily verified (such as comparing sales of Awakenings and/or ME2) and seeing how the charts factored in. Great Reviews and Great "word of mouth" doesn't always transfer into sales, and I want to see more evidence comparisons than "faith based predictions".

[billy the squid]

erynnar wrote...

Guys, TROLL IN THE DUNGEON!!!! Thought you'd like to know." *faints*

Seriously he can't figure out the quote button, you think he will understand "sold in" means sold to retailers not consumers? Come on...

Haha. That brightened up my day quite a bit, I don't feel so unwell now.

And you are right it is either trolling or outright denial of the fact that DA2 has not appealed to many of the core fan base as much as the Origins did, hence the need to perpetuate the ridiculous fantasy that any information to the contrary is biased or unreliable and criticism is largely by the haters.

[xkg]

YohkoOhno wrote...

If you compare it to the DA:O chart, it does look like DAO's stuff spiked upwards, but that seems to coincide with the Christmas Holiday. I doubt it was word of mouth that caused that much of a spike. My bet would be if DAO was released in march, it would fall under the more traditional curve.

Does anybody have a similar chart for Mass Effect 2?

Modifié par xkg, 10 mai 2011 - 03:05 .

[YohkoOhno]

So, DA2 is following the pattern of games. That curve seems the more likely outcome of the sales figures, based on ME2 own curve.

This is why I try to be objective and look for as many facts as possible. "Word of Mouth" success is harder to prove unless you have some sort of literary source and bump. My bet is that DA's sales follow that curve once Christmas passes.

xkg, can you chart out DAO for 20 weeks?

[xkg]

VGChartz shows numerical data for 10 weeks only - but they have chart there for lifetime total sales :

XBOX http://gamrreview.vg...on-age-origins/
PS3 http://gamrreview.vg...on-age-origins/

[neppakyo]

Yrkoon wrote...
This is softball, man.

I used to debate world politics with Volourn back in the day.  On a different board.  You want to be ulcerated?  Try doing that for a few hours.  lol

You poor bastard.. Politics with him? *shudder*

So by looking at the trend itself, DA:O will have sold more on the xbox360, than DA2 on all three platforms. Interesting.

[YohkoOhno]

Actually, based on what I'm seeing, Dragon Age origins sales probably benefited from the Christmas holiday and if we get to compare the week to week data after that time period, it should follow the same downwards curve as margins of diminishing returns.

Will it sell less than DA:O--probably. But is it a "disaster", no. I suspect it will end up being a financial success for EA and Bioware.

[abaris]

YohkoOhno wrote...

Actually, based on what I'm seeing, Dragon Age origins sales probably benefited from the Christmas holiday and if we get to compare the week to week data after that time period, it should follow the same downwards curve as margins of diminishing returns.

 

How about significant price drops in week three, how about handing out free games if you just buy that cutie?

Doesn't make up for the Christmas season boost?

[GammaRayJim]

abaris wrote...

YohkoOhno wrote...

Actually, based on what I'm seeing, Dragon Age origins sales probably benefited from the Christmas holiday and if we get to compare the week to week data after that time period, it should follow the same downwards curve as margins of diminishing returns.

 

How about significant price drops in week three, how about handing out free games if you just buy that cutie?

Doesn't make up for the Christmas season boost?

Or how about the pre-order sales that DA:O earned for DA:2 that has to count and make up for the holiday sales comparison. Let's face it DA:2 was not what the RPG fan base was looking for and when that word got out there it failed. It also didn't grab the CoD crowd because they like to shoot people and not hack and slash them. Now if they had tried going after the GoW crowd and sold it as action/adventure game they might have done better bringing in a new audience.

[neppakyo]

GammaRayJim wrote...

Or how about the pre-order sales that DA:O earned for DA:2 that has to count and make up for the holiday sales comparison. Let's face it DA:2 was not what the RPG fan base was looking for and when that word got out there it failed. It also didn't grab the CoD crowd because they like to shoot people and not hack and slash them. Now if they had tried going after the GoW crowd and sold it as action/adventure game they might have done better bringing in a new audience.

Yeah, those 400,000 or so pre-orders make up week 1's chunk of sales. 

[erynnar]

xkg wrote...

Jerrybnsn wrote...

xkg wrote...

erynnar wrote...
I wonder what those estimated charts by week 17 look like with DAO's actual week 17....

VGChartz (DA:O) shows only sales for 10 weeks

I'm doing now chart for all DA2 sales with online sales included - i'll post it soon.

That's all that VGChartz gives is ten weeks because it's suppose to be used as part of a consumer's guide choice.  Which makes it relevent for about ten weeks.  After that, you can expect the price to be dropped which changes the value of purchasing the game.  Each has their own indifference curve to how this will effect them in purchasing the game or not.

Thanks xkg! You rock!  *big smoochies to you!*

And smoochies to Jerrybnsn for the explanation!
10 weeks would look like this :

[erynnar]

neppakyo wrote...

GammaRayJim wrote...

Or how about the pre-order sales that DA:O earned for DA:2 that has to count and make up for the holiday sales comparison. Let's face it DA:2 was not what the RPG fan base was looking for and when that word got out there it failed. It also didn't grab the CoD crowd because they like to shoot people and not hack and slash them. Now if they had tried going after the GoW crowd and sold it as action/adventure game they might have done better bringing in a new audience.

Yeah, those 400,000 or so pre-orders make up week 1's chunk of sales. 

Yeah Yoko, sorry, I might agree with you about the holiday sales, but a HUGE chunk of DA2's sales were pre-orders from fans of DAO. DAO helped DA2 big time. Will it be a financial disaster for EA and BioWare, no. I am pretty sure DA3 won't be getting that big huge boost in the first week of it's release.

edited for clarity.

@Ali

Modifié par erynnar, 10 mai 2011 - 05:07 .

[Jerrybnsn]

What about the other two games that was released at the same time as Origins? Assassin's Creed II and Uncharted 2. How was their holiday trend? Oh, and don't forget Modern Warfare 2

[YohkoOhno]

Interestingly enough, the trend does show an upwards bump during the holiday season, similar to what we see with this chart. The most sales a game ever sells is in its first week of release. From the games released in november, you see a bump during the December Holiday season, then is slopes back down to the curve.

Regardless of whether DA2 outsells DAO, I still want to see accurate estimates. Statements like this:

Let's face it DA:2 was not what the RPG fan base was looking for and when that word got out there it failed. It also didn't grab the CoD crowd because they like to shoot people and not hack and slash them.

...are somewhat unintelligent and are appeals to emotion. You can only speak for yourself if you liked or hated DA2, you can't speak for others unless you have accurate statistics. That's why I think Stanley is right when he talked about "Confirmation Bias". Few people here are really looking from a neutral point of view--heck, the person who started this thread obviously has a grudge against DA2 ("Rebecca Black likes..."). Doing statistical analysis to prove a POV is usually doomed to confirmation bias and subjective viewpoints.

I believe DA2 is less fulfilling than DA1, but I have no idea how much the hard-core fanbase will affect sales, nor do I know if COD fans actually came in with this release. Judging from the existing sales, Origins may outsell DA2, but probably not by that much in the long run.

[Zeevico]

David Gaider wrote...

Siradix wrote...
Is Gaider trying to make us compare it to Awakening? They were both released March.

I'm just saying that if one is looking for data to serve as proof of anything other than confirmation bias, you might want to take more factors into account. I recognize that some folks are going to take any statement by a developer that isn't a mea culpa as some kind of "denial of the truth", but I'd say we're well aware of how DA2 is selling and how much of a success or failure that is for our company and Dragon Age's future potential. Whether the lesson we've learned is the one you think it should be will remain to be seen, I guess. Hopefully so.

One question: when you developed this game, were you thinking, yep, GOTY material here? I mean, really?

ME2 supposedly "simplified" ME1; whether or not it did is irrelevant, really; ME2 was a different game but it worked and plays well as a different game to ME1.

DA2 is also a good game. But not GOTY material simply because it does not match up to any of (a) fan expectations or ( marketing. Recycled levels, wave-based combat, and not bothering to write a storyline for the apostate mage Hawke that made any kind of sense: these are not moves one makes to get a GOTY.

All of this is simply to say that I very much doubt that Bioware didn't expect some backlash on this one. Even if the game has some excellent ideas, it fails to implement a few key gameplay elements. Now, I'm happy to play it, but many times when a fresh wave of enemies drops down from the sky I either minimise the game or turn it off and reload again. Not necessarily because its hard, but because it's immersion breaking. Makes one roll one's eyes and so forth.

I simply can't imagine Bioware devs did not see this in advance.

For a Bioware game this is a disappointing effort. For me it's still solid and enjoyable: I just have to lower my expectations.

[Rebecca Black likes DA2]

YohkoOhno wrote...

Interestingly enough, the trend does show an upwards bump during the holiday season, similar to what we see with this chart. The most sales a game ever sells is in its first week of release. From the games released in november, you see a bump during the December Holiday season, then is slopes back down to the curve.

Regardless of whether DA2 outsells DAO, I still want to see accurate estimates. Statements like this:

Let's face it DA:2 was not what the RPG fan base was looking for and when that word got out there it failed. It also didn't grab the CoD crowd because they like to shoot people and not hack and slash them.

...are somewhat unintelligent and are appeals to emotion. You can only speak for yourself if you liked or hated DA2, you can't speak for others unless you have accurate statistics. That's why I think Stanley is right when he talked about "Confirmation Bias". Few people here are really looking from a neutral point of view--heck, the person who started this thread obviously has a grudge against DA2 ("Rebecca Black likes..."). Doing statistical analysis to prove a POV is usually doomed to confirmation bias and subjective viewpoints.

I believe DA2 is less fulfilling than DA1, but I have no idea how much the hard-core fanbase will affect sales, nor do I know if COD fans actually came in with this release. Judging from the existing sales, Origins may outsell DA2, but probably not by that much in the long run.

Well to be fair if you really can't see that DAO greatly outsold and continues to this day to outsell DA2 then it's better he appeals to your emotions because your intelligence seems to be lacking.