1033 réponses à ce sujet

[CaptainBlackGold]

Statulos wrote...

If we accept that DA:O had the RPG crowd as target audience, and in my experience we are very passionate about the genre, those titles do not mean a massive competition with DA:O.

Yes, I play other stuff besides RPG´s, but considering that it´s strategy (oldschool/grognard-esque some would say)
just like so many other gamers, but RPG goes first on my list.

However, if RPG gamers tend to be "very passionate" are they not just as likely to buy the latest RPG regardless of when it is released? If so, then the "Christmas Bump" would then be minimum, would it not? I guess there might be some nebulous group of Parents or Grannies or something who buy games for their grandkids irrespective of their actual tastes - "What would little Jonnie like for Christmas? Oh a computer game - hey Mr. Store Clerk, which game should I buy for my grandson? Oh, look this one has lots of sex and violence in it - I am sure he'll love it!"

For what it is worth, I suspect the "Christmas Bump" is mostly a myth just because those who play RPG's tend to be just a bit older and as you said, passionate about the genre. Hence, they will buy the game whenever it comes out.

But what do I know - if I was so smart, I would be rich - and I ain't rich... :-)

Edit: if there was a "Christmas Bump" it could be attributed to people already intending the buy the game, who delayed it simply to receive it as a Christmas Present. In other words, if Christmas were not just a few weeks away, they might have bought it in the first week or so of release - not necessarily that apart from Christmas they would not have bought it at all.

Modifié par CaptainBlackGold, 11 mai 2011 - 09:56 .

[billy the squid]

Statulos wrote...

neppakyo wrote...

Statulos wrote...

I have red a lot of comments (even from Mr. Gaider) pointing out at the release date. Fine, so why not waiting some months and release it in November? Yes, I understand that timing for DA:O was great because there was no massive competition like this year but if you´re sure about your game and its capabilities, you should release it. In fact, you can build a reputation by all the comparisons they are going to draw (extra marketing!).

Plus, if in that environment you actually get more awards, the taste of victory is far better.

To the bolded. If you mean RPG competition, then no. But in general game competetion. Craploads of games
Here's what came out same time as origins.

Assassins Creed 2
Call Of Duty: MW2
Left4Dead 2
God of War Collection
Dirt2
Super Mario Bros Wii (i know its wii, but SM games sell like crack in harlem)
The Sims Adventure.

So plenty of competition for a gamers money in that month. 

If we accept that DA:O had the RPG crowd as target audience, and in my experience we are very passionate about the genre, those titles do not mean a massive competition with DA:O.

Yes, I play other stuff besides RPG´s, but considering that it´s strategy (oldschool/grognard-esque some would say)
just like so many other gamers, but RPG goes first on my list.

I do accept that the target audience was indeed the RPG crowd, but said crowd would also play other genres, so other title released will still constitute competition based on the prefrences of a diverse range of individual players, which I'm not going to even try and analyse,not just strategy games.
 
I think in general gamers are a rather diverse bunch and will jump from one genre to the other if they wan't a different experience, although there will always be a percentage that will whine if RPGs don't play to their expectations based on God of War, rather than actually expect something different etc.

Even though RPGs and Strategy games are usually top of my list, I used to play almost exclusively FPS/TPS, but as I got a little older I wanted something more mature and involved rather than a online twitch fest, although I still play these games. Eg: Gears of War yet I have never found the appeal of God of War. Hence, because there is no strategy or more old school genres on the list, it does not mean competition doesn't increases in general over the christmas period due to the diverse tastes of gamers, particularly as a lot of units were sold on consoles, which tend to be associated with FPS/ action game types.

Modifié par billy the squid, 11 mai 2011 - 10:08 .

[neppakyo]

Boils down to no matter what time of the year, RPG fans will buy RPG games.

[Sabriana]

neppakyo wrote...

Boils down to no matter what time of the year, RPG fans will buy RPG games.

Yes. And no matter how long it takes, we will pay for it. But if we are taken for a ride, we will resent it.

*tackle-hugs Nepp, just because*

[neppakyo]

*is tackled, muffling a reply*

RPG fans are like women, when we're scorned, we become super b!tches.

[SirShreK]

Sabriana wrote...

neppakyo wrote...

Boils down to no matter what time of the year, RPG fans will buy RPG games.

Yes. And no matter how long it takes, we will pay for it. But if we are taken for a ride, we will resent it.

*tackle-hugs Nepp, just because*

I will be honest here. I was waiting for DA2 prices to come down to $10. But now I am no longer interested. I pre-ordered TW2 and I will spend the DA2 money on Skyrim. DA2 has quite negative reviews for may taste and I disliked the demo. I can claim to have played almost all WRPGs. DA2 I will mostly miss. 

[CaptainBlackGold]

neppakyo wrote...

Boils down to no matter what time of the year, RPG fans will buy RPG games.

You see Nep, that's the different between you and me. You said in one sentence what took me four paragraphs to say. Sadly, I fear you do not have a future in professional academics.

But you did get a hug from a girl - tell me, what's that like?

[Sabriana]

Professional academics? That translates strangely in my language. You are either a professional or an academic.

*hugs the Captain just because*

I do admit that I've skipped a lot of postings. So I might be all wet. But I once again have to agree with Billy. It seems to become a habit, but I too played quite a few games before the RPG captured me completely.

I like to think. I like to err. I like to make choices that blow up into my face. I need internal consistency.

Yes, I'm still not over "mageHawke". So sue me.

[Tantum Dic Verbo]

CaptainBlackGold wrote...
 I guess there might be some nebulous group of Parents or Grannies or something who buy games for their grandkids irrespective of their actual tastes - "What would little Jonnie like for Christmas? Oh a computer game - hey Mr. Store Clerk, which game should I buy for my grandson? Oh, look this one has lots of sex and violence in it - I am sure he'll love it!"

"Excuse me, but my grandson has been fantasizing about having sex with a smarmy, bisexual elf who kills people for money.  Do you have a game like that?"

[A Crusty Knight Of Colour]

Sabriana wrote...

Professional academics? That translates strangely in my language. You are either a professional or an academic.

*hugs the Captain just because*

I do admit that I've skipped a lot of postings. So I might be all wet. But I once again have to agree with Billy. It seems to become a habit, but I too played quite a few games before the RPG captured me completely.

I like to think. I like to err. I like to make choices that blow up into my face. I need internal consistency.

Yes, I'm still not over "mageHawke". So sue me.

Lol.

GET OUT OF MY HEAD, MAD WOMAN!

mrcrusty wrote...

IMO, fundamental to any good wRPG for me is Choices, Consequences and the Cohesion of gameplay and narrative. Or the three Cs. If you havethose elements, the player can really feel like they are interacting and impacting the game world, as opposed to watching a pre-scripted narrative.

Modifié par mrcrusty, 11 mai 2011 - 11:08 .

[billy the squid]

Sabriana wrote...

Professional academics? That translates strangely in my language. You are either a professional or an academic.

*hugs the Captain just because*

I do admit that I've skipped a lot of postings. So I might be all wet. But I once again have to agree with Billy. It seems to become a habit, but I too played quite a few games before the RPG captured me completely.

I like to think. I like to err. I like to make choices that blow up into my face. I need internal consistency.

Yes, I'm still not over "mageHawke". So sue me.

Ahhhh, you're so sweet, I'm touched that you read my long winded posts. *Hugs Sabriana* 
You know what they say, "Great minds think alike."

Modifié par billy the squid, 11 mai 2011 - 11:14 .

[YohkoOhno]

However, if RPG gamers tend to be "very passionate" are they not just as likely to buy the latest RPG regardless of when it is released? If so, then the "Christmas Bump" would then be minimum, would it not? I guess there might be some nebulous group of Parents or Grannies or something who buy games for their grandkids irrespective of their actual tastes - "What would little Jonnie like for Christmas? Oh a computer game - hey Mr. Store Clerk, which game should I buy for my grandson? Oh, look this one has lots of sex and violence in it - I am sure he'll love it!"

For what it is worth, I suspect the "Christmas Bump" is mostly a myth just because those who play RPG's tend to be just a bit older and as you said, passionate about the genre. Hence, they will buy the game whenever it comes out.

The Christmas Bump appears to exist for virtually every major game released in the month of November, if you view the VGChartz. So I don't think it's a myth.

Personally, I think we may be in the minority in terms of what we think the core audience is. I think the hard core gamers make up perhaps at most, 20% of all sales. The rest play the RPG similar to how WoW is played, most focused on one time "level up" stats, etc. (The way people play MMORPGs has made me re-think the relevance of hard-core RPG gamers--people who really want to be immersive stick to MUDs and other niche settings--and I think people play the single player games right). Personally, I think the hard core fans only make up a minority of every game and the rest are just casual fans--be it RPGs, shooters, RTS, etc.

I'd love for Bioware to share the metrics of DA: Origins like they did (briefly) for ME2. I wonder if out of the 5 million people who purchased it, if 50% finished it, for instance, or if people skipped over most choices.

And why I agree with the hard core as I consider myself part of that group, I also won't delude myself into believe my view is the majority view.

Modifié par YohkoOhno, 11 mai 2011 - 11:33 .

[CaptainBlackGold]

[quote]Sabriana wrote...

Professional academics? That translates strangely in my language. You are either a professional or an academic.

[/quote]

"Professional Academic: (noun) (1) someone paid to do theoretical or scholastic research and then justifies their paycheck by writing long, obtuse and confusing papers using convoluted syntax, pollysyllabic terminology and esoteric citations (the more obscure, the better) to convince the reader he has something important to say, when in reality, he is just blowing smoke (see "con artist"). Also, (2) an instructor at the undergraduate level saddled with teaching classes of nameless first year students while trying to get said theoretical or scholastic papers published in enough peer reviewed journals to be awarded tenure so he never has to work again. (3) Someone who failed at numbers (1) and (2) but still recieves a stipend from various grant giving foundations but does not complain because it's a lot easier than honest work. (4) archaic - someone who actually significantly contributes to some field of human knowledge through research and or instruction way and is paid to do so."

[/quote]

*hugs the Captain just because*

[/quote]

Milady is most kind and gracious and e-hugs are much appreciated and spiritually and metaphorically returned.
But lest someone complain about going off topic let me just say that I personally like the pretty charts and am unqualified to judge whether the underlying formulae are valid enough since I forget every statistics class I ever took - which may explain why so many of my academic papers were not published in peer reviewed journals...

[CaptainBlackGold]

YohkoOhno wrote...

The Christmas Bump appears to exist for virtually every major game released in the month of November, if you view the VGChartz. So I don't think it's a myth.

I think you may be correct in regards to a "bump" existing - but I was trying to get at the reasons why such a "bump" may not be as meaningful to RPG games as it may to others. In other words, the holiday season itself might mean that some purchases are put off a few weeks just to coincide with gift giving.

Interesting side-bit - ME3 is being delayed beyond the holiday season for it to receive more polish. Obviously, Bioware?EA do not think they are going to lose significant sales in doing so.

[A Crusty Knight Of Colour]

CaptainBlackGold wrote...


Milady is most kind and gracious and e-hugs are much appreciated and spiritually and metaphorically returned.
But lest someone complain about going off topic let me just say that I personally like the pretty charts and am unqualified to judge whether the underlying formulae are valid enough since I forget every statistics class I ever took - which may explain why so many of my academic papers were not published in peer reviewed journals...

Spoken like a true professor. You'll make a grand academic yet.

Modifié par mrcrusty, 11 mai 2011 - 11:46 .

[CaptainBlackGold]

mrcrusty wrote...

[Spoken like a true professor. You'll make a grand academic yet.

Thank you for the kind encouragment but I fear that ship has sailed as they say - too old, too cynical too ornery. I may have to you know (shivers) find a real job in the real world.

So, anyone want to put odds on how badly DA2 will do in week 9? I've been thinking of starting a little pool where everyone chips in five bucks and the closest to the actual numbers wins something amazing. Any takers?

But back on topic - oh who am I kidding, I don't really have anything worthwhile to say. I'll just sit over here now.

[neppakyo]

@CaptainBlackCigars

Sometime saying the simplest things gets a point across more effectively. Or something like that

[erynnar]

CaptainBlackGold wrote...

neppakyo wrote...

Boils down to no matter what time of the year, RPG fans will buy RPG games.

You see Nep, that's the different between you and me. You said in one sentence what took me four paragraphs to say. Sadly, I fear you do not have a future in professional academics.

But you did get a hug from a girl - tell me, what's that like?

*pounces and hugs* Like that!

But where is my Sabi hug? I am her brain twin after all!   Sabi, yes we do get rather militant if we are taken for a ride. Friend of mine who doesn't post on the forum was supremely pissed at DA2. She is a hard core gamer. RPGs by preference, but she plays anything. I can't even scratch the surface of the games she has put on her shelf over the years. I think twenty years or more of gaming. What she had to say made my ears blush!

*hugs Nepp hard* Yep, you said it. We will buy RPG games no matter the season or the weather.

[YohkoOhno]

Agreed, I was just pointing out that the sales bump DAO got does not mean DAO was "better" than DA2. When you saw XKG show ME2, that had the more traditional Log curve, and if you compare that to other games, it shows a pattern that Christmas sales DO make a difference.

I was basically trying to throw cold water on the assumption that the bump was "word of mouth", which a lot of people believe.

[neppakyo]

I like getting hugs from girls. Their boobs smush against my chest, and frankly thats awesome.

My point was that there was tonnes of competition for DA:O when it was released. I think the christmas "bump" didn't add too much to sales, as RPG fans were already hyped and ready to buy. After a few weeks then came the word of mouth and glowing reviews.

Not saying the xmas seasons didn't help, but it wasn't just because it was released then.

[Calibretto36]

Boiny Bunny wrote...

I think this has gone on far enough.

It's one thing to look at sales data week by week, from a generally unreliable source, and blather about how much of a failure the game is, because it sold less than the first one, also according to the unreliable data source.

It's another entirely to try and fit a function through the unreliable data using excel's auto-fit like a 4 year old. Simply put, the 'projections' in this thread are garbage.

These forum topics are the reason I started to frequent the bioware forums. Nice Opinion but being someone who was devastated emotionally spiritually and intellectually by Dragon Age 2 I find solace and a sense of serenity in the knowledge that sales have plummeted.
To be honest I get so excited from week to week about the next sales figure post and the discussion that follows. that I can barely contain it in my pants.
Its the one ray of light in the all encompassing darkness that is Dragon Age 2.
Not even the Clouds of Mordor can compare with the Harbringer of destruction that is Dragon Age2.
Its an infection that needs to be cut out through rebellion.
The people have risen against the darkness and dont dare tarnish their light. If the darkness is where you belong then flee to it and let it envelop you.
We are the people LONG LIVE THE PEOPLE LONG LIVE THE STRENGTH OF MANKIND.

[erynnar]

Autolycus wrote...

What did she say ery?

Oh what we all said as flaws with many explatives along with it was an unfinished money grab. It was....more colorful, and could probably get me banned. So, um, yeah, you can fill in the rest...

What's funny is she took me by surprise. I thought she liked it. I made a comment and wow. Yeah.

Modifié par erynnar, 12 mai 2011 - 01:05 .

[erynnar]

neppakyo wrote...

I like getting hugs from girls. Their boobs smush against my chest, and frankly thats awesome.

My point was that there was tonnes of competition for DA:O when it was released. I think the christmas "bump" didn't add too much to sales, as RPG fans were already hyped and ready to buy. After a few weeks then came the word of mouth and glowing reviews.

Not saying the xmas seasons didn't help, but it wasn't just because it was released then.

Yeah, I agree. There was a lot of competition when DAO was released. Christmas may have helped a little, but I tend toward more word of mouth than holiday.


LOL Nepp! If I told you you had a beautiful body, would you hold it against me?

Modifié par erynnar, 12 mai 2011 - 01:11 .

[YohkoOhno]

Except for Word of Mouth to work, it wouldn't explain why that bump exists for EVERY AAA that gets released at the Holiday Season, and when you compare it to a successful game like Mass Effect 2, that follows the more traditional curve. Do an analysis of the last 2 years worth of games and compare a game released in November (or late October) to ones released in the Spring. You only see that bump up happen during the holiday season. Compare, say, Bioshock (released in August) with Left 4 Dead (1 or 2).

The bump happens only during the holiday season.  That tells me it is people buying for others and not "word of mouth".  Word of mouth is much less stronger than some people think and I don't believe it results in sales going UP from the typical downward trends.  Word of Mouth is more likely to keep the curve at a higher level.

Guys, at least do research by gathering SOME statistics, otherwise you are just going on "faith".

Modifié par YohkoOhno, 12 mai 2011 - 01:42 .