1033 réponses à ce sujet

[neppakyo]

erynnar wrote...
LOL Nepp! If I told you you had a beautiful body, would you hold it against me?

Damn straight I would. heee.

I still think it was mainly bioware/RPG fans that added the "bump" to DA:O sales, and xmas did help, but not hugmongously.

[erynnar]

YohkoOhno wrote...

Except for Word of Mouth to work, it wouldn't explain why that bump exists for EVERY AAA that gets released at the Holiday Season, and when you compare it to a successful game like Mass Effect 2, that follows the more traditional curve. Do an analysis of the last 2 years worth of games and compare a game released in November (or late October) to ones released in the Spring. You only see that bump up happen during the holiday season. Compare, say, Bioshock (released in August) with Left 4 Dead (1 or 2).

The bump happens only during the holiday season.  That tells me it is people buying for others and not "word of mouth".  Word of mouth is much less stronger than some people think and I don't believe it results in sales going UP from the typical downward trends.  Word of Mouth is more likely to keep the curve at a higher level.

Guys, at least do research by gathering SOME statistics, otherwise you are just going on "faith".

Oh that's why I said "I" tend toward my thought on word of mouth. Not that it was statistically accurate. I don't want  you to think I am arguing against you, sweetie. I am horrible at math. So, I am willing to say you are probably right against my gut feeling. LOL! I don't want you to feel like we are picking on you.

[erynnar]

neppakyo wrote...

erynnar wrote...
LOL Nepp! If I told you you had a beautiful body, would you hold it against me?

Damn straight I would. heee.

I still think it was mainly bioware/RPG fans that added the "bump" to DA:O sales, and xmas did help, but not hugmongously.

WOOT!!! You have a beautiful body! :innocent:

[Yrkoon]

CaptainBlackGold wrote...


So, anyone want to put odds on how badly DA2 will do in week 9? I've been thinking of starting a little pool where everyone chips in five bucks and the closest to the actual numbers wins something amazing. Any takers?

Someone pointed this out on another thread but I'll repeat it here because I find it so interesting:  There seems to have been a resurgence in DA:O sales recently, for whatever reason  (probably word of mouth all over again, as people talk about how much better it is than DA2).

So to answer you question, don't be surprized if DA2's week 9 sales are so low, that  DA:O  outsells it that same week.


And what kind of statement will that be -- if a 2 year old game  manages to outsell a new release from the same franchise?  lol

Modifié par Yrkoon, 12 mai 2011 - 02:16 .

[erynnar]

Yrkoon wrote...

CaptainBlackGold wrote...


So, anyone want to put odds on how badly DA2 will do in week 9? I've been thinking of starting a little pool where everyone chips in five bucks and the closest to the actual numbers wins something amazing. Any takers?

Someone pointed this out on another thread but I'll repeat it here because I find it so interesting:  There seems to have been a resurgence in DA:O sales recently, for whatever reason  (probably word of mouth all over again, as people talk about how much better it is than DA2).

So to answer you question, don't be surprized if DA2's week 9 sales are so low, that  DA:O  sells more copies  that same week.


And what kind of statement will that be -- if a 2 year old game  manages to outsell a new release from the same franchise?  lol

I saw that too! And yeah, it would be an ouchies statement.

[neppakyo]

Yrkoon wrote...

Someone pointed this out on another thread but I'll repeat it here because I find it so interesting:  There seems to have been a resurgence in DA:O sales recently, for whatever reason  (probably word of mouth all over again, as people talk about how much better it is than DA2).

So to answer you question, don't be surprized if DA2's week 9 sales are so low, that  DA:O  sells more copies  that same week.


And what kind of statement will that be -- if a 2 year old game  manages to outsell a new release from the same franchise?  lol

*wince* Ouch. It would be interesting to see what happens either way.

If that does happen, I'd say its a message to BW.

[Boiny Bunny]

IanPolaris wrote...

Rebecca Black likes DA2 wrote...

xkg wrote...


I dont want anyone to argue because of some funny math function i have posted here just for the kicks.

I've deleted my post. Function is gone now, no problem.

xkg you shoud repost the chart.  Seriously.

I'm going to go ahead and make a prediction myself without a mathematical formula.  The next weeks worth of numbers that come out for DA2 will show that sales have sunk even lower.  Shocking, I know. (oh noes watch out for the wrath of Boiny Bunny!)

xkg,

Indeed.  There was nothing wrong with what you posted.  It was a simple 'best fit curve' projection based on data.  Nothing more.  Some people here really, really don't like what the data is saying and are overly sensitive to it I think.

-Polaris

Oh I agree, I'm sure there are many that don't like what the data is showing.  I wouldn't put myself into that category though.  Frankly, I'm actually disappointed that DA2 has even sold over 1 million copies, given how poor a game I think it is.

I believe that the VGChartz data is accurate enough to get a very broad picture of how the sales are looking, and what their trend is, but little more than that.  Attempting to make ultimate sales forecasts based on 8 highly unreliable data points is statistically unsound.

I'm not making, or attempting to make, any point beyond that statement.

Roughly comparing numbers, or the trends in the weekly sales of either game, as has been done since release, is somewhat more reasonable.

Modifié par Boiny Bunny, 12 mai 2011 - 03:12 .

[IanPolaris]

Boiny Bunny wrote...

I believe that the VGChartz data is accurate enough to get a very broad picture of how the sales are looking, and what their trend is, but little more than that.  Attempting to make ultimate sales forecasts based on 8 highly unreliable data points is statistically unsound.

No it's not.  I say that as a physicist.  It's perfectly sound to take a data projection, make a best fit curve, deduce the function and then project out what the integral of the function will be to infinity. It's particularly easy when the data has a strongly logrithrimic curve as this does.  The estimate of about 2 million sales (as in sold through) for all time, is actually mathematically a very sound estimate given the data we have.

Just because the data isn't known perfectly doesn not mean that statistically sound conclusions and projections can not be made from that data.

-Polaris

[Grovermancer]

Yrkoon wrote...
And what kind of statement will that be -- if a 2 year old game  manages to outsell a new release from the same franchise?  lol

It would be a glimmer of hope that something richer, deeper, and more truthful still has a place in this (gaming) world.

Boiny Bunny wrote...
 Frankly, I'm actually disappointed that DA2 has even sold over 1 million copies, given how poor a game I think it is.

I'm disappointed (though not in the least surprised) how so many try and ignore how many of DA2's sales are ONLY because of the reputation and mystique earned by DAO.

DA2's sales are because of DAO.

Take away DAO, and DA2 sells 1/2 as many copies, if that.
Take away the BW name, and DA2 is gone and forgotten in 6 months.

[Boiny Bunny]

IanPolaris wrote...

Boiny Bunny wrote...

I believe that the VGChartz data is accurate enough to get a very broad picture of how the sales are looking, and what their trend is, but little more than that.  Attempting to make ultimate sales forecasts based on 8 highly unreliable data points is statistically unsound.

No it's not.  I say that as a physicist.  It's perfectly sound to take a data projection, make a best fit curve, deduce the function and then project out what the integral of the function will be to infinity. It's particularly easy when the data has a strongly logrithrimic curve as this does.  The estimate of about 2 million sales (as in sold through) for all time, is actually mathematically a very sound estimate given the data we have.

Just because the data isn't known perfectly doesn not mean that statistically sound conclusions and projections can not be made from that data.

-Polaris

Well we'll have to take our professional opinions and disagree then.  Perhaps EA should fire its entire analytics department, and hire a few year 8 students who have just learned how to do regression instead - the salary and hardware savings might help make up some of losses they've been reporting lately...

[erynnar]

Boiny Bunny wrote...

IanPolaris wrote...

Boiny Bunny wrote...

I believe that the VGChartz data is accurate enough to get a very broad picture of how the sales are looking, and what their trend is, but little more than that.  Attempting to make ultimate sales forecasts based on 8 highly unreliable data points is statistically unsound.

No it's not.  I say that as a physicist.  It's perfectly sound to take a data projection, make a best fit curve, deduce the function and then project out what the integral of the function will be to infinity. It's particularly easy when the data has a strongly logrithrimic curve as this does.  The estimate of about 2 million sales (as in sold through) for all time, is actually mathematically a very sound estimate given the data we have.

Just because the data isn't known perfectly doesn not mean that statistically sound conclusions and projections can not be made from that data.

-Polaris

Well we'll have to take our professional opinions and disagree then.  Perhaps EA should fire its entire analytics department, and hire a few year 8 students who have just learned how to do regression instead - the salary and hardware savings might help make up some of losses they've been reporting lately...

Okay I take the projections in just good fun, because, while I am not stupid, I am not nearly as smart as Bunny and Pol.  WOW!

I love smart people. And you two are super smart. Okay dueling calculators at dawn! Erm, or whatever hour you two share depending on where you live.  Okay you two make me feel like I have a sub par IQ. *gets popcorn and sits to watch two science wizards (or math and science) duke it out*:happy:

[erynnar]

Grovermancer wrote...

Yrkoon wrote...
And what kind of statement will that be -- if a 2 year old game  manages to outsell a new release from the same franchise?  lol

It would be a glimmer of hope that something richer, deeper, and more truthful still has a place in this (gaming) world.

Boiny Bunny wrote...
 Frankly, I'm actually disappointed that DA2 has even sold over 1 million copies, given how poor a game I think it is.

I'm disappointed (though not in the least surprised) how so many try and ignore how many of DA2's sales are ONLY because of the reputation and mystique earned by DAO.

DA2's sales are because of DAO.

Take away DAO, and DA2 sells 1/2 as many copies, if that.
Take away the BW name, and DA2 is gone and forgotten in 6 months.

Probably less than 6 months. BioWare has a rep, a big one, and a deserved one (yes even with DA2, still they do. IF ME3 doesn't do well, then I think that rep will be hurt. Glad they asked and got more time).

[neppakyo]

erynnar wrote...

Okay I take the projections in just good fun, because, while I am not stupid, I am not nearly as smart as Bunny and Pol.  WOW!

I love smart people. And you two are super smart. Okay dueling calculators at dawn! Erm, or whatever hour you two share depending on where you live.  Okay you two make me feel like I have a sub par IQ. *gets popcorn and sits to watch two science wizards (or math and science) duke it out*:happy:

Ian Polaris makes me feel like the slow kid who drools into his corn flakes and likes to set things on fire.

Even with my completion of high school, and a college network administrator degree, along with my computer certifications and PC repair business lol.

Uhh.. I have a 42" Plasma TV as another monitor! Its purdy! *licks the anti-glare coating*

But yeah, those two are some smart cookies and always a very interesting read.

[csfteeeer]

YohkoOhno wrote...

Except for Word of Mouth to work, it wouldn't explain why that bump exists for EVERY AAA that gets released at the Holiday Season, and when you compare it to a successful game like Mass Effect 2, that follows the more traditional curve. Do an analysis of the last 2 years worth of games and compare a game released in November (or late October) to ones released in the Spring. You only see that bump up happen during the holiday season. Compare, say, Bioshock (released in August) with Left 4 Dead (1 or 2).

The bump happens only during the holiday season.  That tells me it is people buying for others and not "word of mouth".  Word of mouth is much less stronger than some people think and I don't believe it results in sales going UP from the typical downward trends.  Word of Mouth is more likely to keep the curve at a higher level.

Guys, at least do research by gathering SOME statistics, otherwise you are just going on "faith".

i have two words for you: Demon's Souls

[HanabPacal]

YohkoOhno wrote...

Except for Word of Mouth to work, it wouldn't explain why that bump exists for EVERY AAA that gets released at the Holiday Season, and when you compare it to a successful game like Mass Effect 2, that follows the more traditional curve. Do an analysis of the last 2 years worth of games and compare a game released in November (or late October) to ones released in the Spring. You only see that bump up happen during the holiday season. Compare, say, Bioshock (released in August) with Left 4 Dead (1 or 2).

The bump happens only during the holiday season.  That tells me it is people buying for others and not "word of mouth".  Word of mouth is much less stronger than some people think and I don't believe it results in sales going UP from the typical downward trends.  Word of Mouth is more likely to keep the curve at a higher level.

Guys, at least do research by gathering SOME statistics, otherwise you are just going on "faith".

Don’t you think that it’s a strong possibility that the sales are merely being squashed into a few week period during the holiday season, which subsequently creates that spike in many games for that time of the year?  Like neppakyo stated, some sales are being delayed for a few weeks because people put game “X” on their Christmas list.  While in other cases, some sales are moved forward for the same reason. 
 
Is the existence of these holiday spikes really a case of gained sales?  Or is it merely a different distribution along that sales/trend line?  Now, if you believe that it truly is a case of many more sales (enough to significantly impact the overall number and trend line), then how many?  What is the percentage gain of sales for being released just before the holiday as opposed to what the product would have sold over its lifetime?  If release during the holiday season truly increases the maximum potential for lifetime sales, then why isn’t every AAA game released during a four to five week period before the holiday?  Would the Orange Box have had another million or two million sales if it had been released three or four weeks later?  Would CoD: Modern Warfare have sold significantly less units if it had been released sometime in July as opposed to November 12?
 
I have no doubt that there are some blind impulse buys during the holiday season because grandma thinks that little Johnny will like “X”.  But I highly doubt that these holiday impulse purchases are favorably skewing the overall numbers (for any big title game) in any significant manner.  Grandma is just as likely to pick up any other game on the shelf that looks cool or is recommended by the store clerk, which greatly waters down the possibility of one little niche title receiving a significant boost. 
 
As per ‘word of mouth’, I can’t tell if you are truly being serious or are merely arguing against its impact to suit your position within the conversation.  The simple fact is that word of mouth is very powerful.  Every restaurateur, every retail shopkeeper, every CEO of an automobile manufacturer, etc. understands the impact of both positive and negative word of mouth.  People like Gordon Ramsey (the world’s most successful restaurateur) and Lee Iacocca (rebuilt the failing Chrysler Corporation in the 1980s) have spoken and written about the impact of word of mouth on business.  For me, and most likely for many others, to dismiss this long-standing and long studied point of view you will definitely need to bring something significant to the table in order to counter it.
 
You told others that they should get some statistics and not go on faith.  I agree, everyone should always strive to get as many facts as possible.  However, I would appeal to you to get further statistics and evidence yourself, and not stop with a single idea when there is much more to the equation than you are putting forth.  I’m not being sarcastic with this, but it seems like you’ve thrown all of your weight behind an extremely undeveloped argument because on the surface it might vaguely appear to support your position.

[YohkoOhno]

 

I have no doubt that there are some blind impulse buys during the holiday season because grandma thinks that little Johnny will like “X”.  But I highly doubt that these holiday impulse purchases are favorably skewing the overall numbers (for any big title game) in any significant manner.  Grandma is just as likely to pick up any other game on the shelf that looks cool or is recommended by the store clerk, which greatly waters down the possibility of one little niche title receiving a significant boost.  
 
As per ‘word of mouth’, I can’t tell if you are truly being serious or are merely arguing against its impact to suit your position within the conversation.  The simple fact is that word of mouth is very powerful.  Every restaurateur, every retail shopkeeper, every CEO of an automobile manufacturer, etc. understands the impact of both positive and negative word of mouth.  People like Gordon Ramsey (the world’s most successful restaurateur) and Lee Iacocca (rebuilt the failing Chrysler Corporation in the 1980s) have spoken and written about the impact of word of mouth on business.  For me, and most likely for many others, to dismiss this long-standing and long studied point of view you will definitely need to bring something significant to the table in order to counter it.

Note that I did not say that games "do better" during the holidays or that profits and total sales are better.  I was simply pointing out that virtually every game released during that time period experiences that bump.  I am not trying to argue that it affects total sales.  I am simply pointing out that people who are arguing that Dragon Age Origins did better during those weeks on the chart comparing its release to Dragon Age 2 by stating that the bump upwards was based on "word of mouth" doesn't seem to fly in the face of looking at all major games released during that time period.  Arkham Asylum had a lot of good word of mouth and yet there wasn't a bump because that game was released in August.

While I will accept other's arguments, I want THEM to bring facts to the table.  Since this whole subject is analyzing the data from VGChartz, I looked at other games.  I don't dismiss "word of mouth", but unless you can show qualifiable proof that DA:O did better because of "good word of mouth", it makes no sense to argue that the chart spike for DA:O is the result of Word of Mouth and the "bad word of mouth" of DA2 means that the game failed.  I think Word of Mouth is powerful but from what I'm seeing on these charts, Word of mouth apparently only adds more in the aggregate--the long curve doesn't slope down as much.  I think word of mouth DOES have an impact, I just don't think you can see it in the short term first week sales charts, because games that have good WoM released outside the holiday season window do not have that upward curve.  Big games that had huge growth like Red Dead Redemption, Arkham Asylum, etc.

The person who mentioned "Demon Souls"?  The game similar follows the slope downward, only spiking back up around Black Friday and the holiday season.  It was released October 9th.

I've got no problem with people using statistics, or questioning them, but the arguments have to be fair.  Since this subject was started by people using VGChartz, I'm using the same data to figure things out.  If you want to question those elements, that's fine.  But if you're going to say "DA:O was boosted by WoM" and just compare the two games week to week on the chart, that needs some skeptical analysis.

If you use statistics to argue things, back them up a bit.  The people arguing about DA2's "sell in" vs. "sell through" don't mention DA:O's 5 million number--now, is the 5 Million number "Sell In" or "Sell Through"?  Nobody answers that question when I ask it.  Let's at least compare similar statistics accurately.

 

Modifié par YohkoOhno, 12 mai 2011 - 11:44 .

[csfteeeer]

YohkoOhno wrote...

 

I have no doubt that there are some blind impulse buys during the holiday season because grandma thinks that little Johnny will like “X”.  But I highly doubt that these holiday impulse purchases are favorably skewing the overall numbers (for any big title game) in any significant manner.  Grandma is just as likely to pick up any other game on the shelf that looks cool or is recommended by the store clerk, which greatly waters down the possibility of one little niche title receiving a significant boost.  
 
As per ‘word of mouth’, I can’t tell if you are truly being serious or are merely arguing against its impact to suit your position within the conversation.  The simple fact is that word of mouth is very powerful.  Every restaurateur, every retail shopkeeper, every CEO of an automobile manufacturer, etc. understands the impact of both positive and negative word of mouth.  People like Gordon Ramsey (the world’s most successful restaurateur) and Lee Iacocca (rebuilt the failing Chrysler Corporation in the 1980s) have spoken and written about the impact of word of mouth on business.  For me, and most likely for many others, to dismiss this long-standing and long studied point of view you will definitely need to bring something significant to the table in order to counter it.

Note that I did not say that games "do better" during the holidays or that profits and total sales are better.  I was simply pointing out that virtually every game released during that time period experiences that bump.  I am not trying to argue that it affects total sales.  I am simply pointing out that people who are arguing that Dragon Age Origins did better during those weeks on the chart comparing its release to Dragon Age 2 by stating that the bump upwards was based on "word of mouth" doesn't seem to fly in the face of looking at all major games released during that time period.  Arkham Asylum had a lot of good word of mouth and yet there wasn't a bump because that game was released in August.

While I will accept other's arguments, I want THEM to bring facts to the table.  Since this whole subject is analyzing the data from VGChartz, I looked at other games.  I don't dismiss "word of mouth", but unless you can show qualifiable proof that DA:O did better because of "good word of mouth", it makes no sense to argue that the chart spike for DA:O is the result of Word of Mouth and the "bad word of mouth" of DA2 means that the game failed.  I think Word of Mouth is powerful but from what I'm seeing on these charts, Word of mouth apparently only adds more in the aggregate--the long curve doesn't slope down as much.  I think word of mouth DOES have an impact, I just don't think you can see it in the short term first week sales charts, because games that have good WoM released outside the holiday season window do not have that upward curve.  Big games that had huge growth like Red Dead Redemption, Arkham Asylum, etc.

The person who mentioned "Demon Souls"?  The game similar follows the slope downward, only spiking back up around Black Friday and the holiday season.  It was released October 9th.

I've got no problem with people using statistics, or questioning them, but the arguments have to be fair.  Since this subject was started by people using VGChartz, I'm using the same data to figure things out.  If you want to question those elements, that's fine.  But if you're going to say "DA:O was boosted by WoM" and just compare the two games week to week on the chart, that needs some skeptical analysis.

If you use statistics to argue things, back them up a bit.  The people arguing about DA2's "sell in" vs. "sell through" don't mention DA:O's 5 million number--now, is the 5 Million number "Sell In" or "Sell Through"?  Nobody answers that question when I ask it.  Let's at least compare similar statistics accurately.

 

DAO sells ARE apperantly superior to 4 million copies, though the vgchartz don't show the american sales in the pc version, for some reason, and also don't show digital sales, however, even with that, the game has 3.8 million copies sold, but because of the lack american statistics for pc and the digital sales, it's safe to asume that DAO  has sold 4 million copies, but i read somewhere that it surpased 5 million, but no sold in copies, sold copies. 

[xkg]

This is going to be a bit off-topic but it is an interesting article + i dont want to make a new thread just to post simple link.

Here is the link :  The Death of Console Gaming...

All those facts in this article are backed up with sources and links.

Before i get flamed by console users - im not posting this to bash you guys - just a link to interesting read. Thats all.

[MyKingdomCold]

xkg wrote...


This is going to be a bit off-topic but it is an interesting article + i dont want to make a new thread just to post simple link.

Here is the link :  The Death of Console Gaming...

All those facts in this article are backed up with sources and links.

Before i get flamed by console users - im not posting this to bash you guys - just a link to interesting read. Thats all.

It is an interesting read. However, I seem to remember a similar uproar a few years back abot the "death of PC gaming".  I just did a search on Google for "Death of PC gaming" and got quite a few hits. Most of the links were refuting this supposed "death". But why would they need to refute something that wasn't brought up?

I like gaming on my PC as well as my console. It's just that my PC isn't good enough to run a lot of the newer games.

[billy the squid]

It is interesting, I' ve only skimmed over things so I will have to go back and read things again. I curently have both a PC, which I'm looking to overhaul extensively and an xbox 360. Whilst I'm not sure it is the death of console gaming as the inclusion of internet multiplayer and other innovations on the console have certainly lead to a bullish run for this generation of consoles, which were quite a jump from the previous generation which might account for the spike in sales.

The current generation of consoles seems to be at the nadir of its power. I think this is more akin to peaks and troughs, so we will see a decline in consoles over time, before experienceing a resurgance as the next generation of consoles emerges. How big this will be I'm unsure i think it depends price, compatibility between generations and technical performance.

http://www.vgchartz....oft-strategies/

(details the current approaches and strategies implemented by each of the big console manufacturers and their problems.)

Modifié par billy the squid, 12 mai 2011 - 11:30 .

[xkg]

Yes i know. This "The Death of Console Gaming..." title is little overhyped imo.
Maybe "PC gaming is not dying" or something like that would sound better.

[Statulos]

neppakyo wrote...

Boils down to no matter what time of the year, RPG fans will buy RPG games.

Yes, but many of us are married or have relatives/friends grinding their heads to give us something for Saturnalia... eeehm Christmas.

And well, between telling them to get me the last record from Impaled Nazarene and a relatively easy to find RPG, well, the second is quite, quite easier.

[0x30A88]

Hopes EA/BIoware learns of this sell-out-fail.

[Boiny Bunny]

xkg wrote...


This is going to be a bit off-topic but it is an interesting article + i dont want to make a new thread just to post simple link.

Here is the link :  The Death of Console Gaming...

All those facts in this article are backed up with sources and links.

Before i get flamed by console users - im not posting this to bash you guys - just a link to interesting read. Thats all.

That article was quite funny.  If it wasn't written under the pretense that the US is the only country in the world, it might hold a little more water.  CoD: Black Ops - best selling game ever?  Hahahahahaha.

Activision wish they could even come close to something like 40m or 70m copies sold for their game.

[Realmzmaster]

The Death of Console gaming is that like the Death of PC gaming that some people keep predicting? All of those COD games sold must have been an illusion. It seems the reports of death are greatly exaggerated

Modifié par Realmzmaster, 13 mai 2011 - 12:09 .