Was Loghain right?

If you made Alistair king in the last game, you get to speak with him in this one.  He and Teagan both speak of the likelihood that Orlais will try to retake Fereldan.

Now of course Loghain picked a bad time to pursue the course of action he did when he did.  Help was needed to stop the Blight and certainly not a civil war.

But . . . does DA2 redeem him in a sense?  He suspected the Orlesians would not leave once they got a foothold in Fereldan again.  He suspected Celene of trying to rule through Cailan by tricking him into some sort of treaty.  Was the man right?