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A Song of Ice and Fire book discussion (spoilers)


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#801
RedArmyShogun

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GodWood wrote...

LPPrince wrote...

Confess-A-Bear wrote...
I suspect Aegon will still win the War with his Cousin's (Dany) help honestly. 

Also my guess. Just seems like what's going to happen. Hell, even Tyrion's on board.

It's more likely that Aegon is the prophesied "Mummer's Dragon" or at least Daenerys will think he is the Mummer's Dragon.

Either way I don't see them working together.



I don't think he is, she likely will though. Or it might be aimed at Stannis and the Red Priestest with the whole Stone Dragon thing, or might be old Crazy King Crow and his dragon idea's.

I mean most of the prophesied events haven't been so obvious to her. In fact it might be shes the Mummers Dragon, as the recent events have shown, not fit to rule.

#802
Megaton_Hope

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Confess-A-Bear wrote...

Its as I said, they'll be mad, but they won't do crap. Countless examples of it.

Like this one, yeah:

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Riot_of_King's_Landing

#803
RedArmyShogun

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And what happend once a few of them were killed?

Heck just that one stomping on them kept them from doing crap when Tyrion put parts of the City to the torch not once but twice.

Care to try again?

#804
LPPrince

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Truth.

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#805
Megaton_Hope

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Confess-A-Bear wrote...

And what happend once a few of them were killed?

Heck just that one stomping on them kept them from doing crap when Tyrion put parts of the City to the torch not once but twice.

Care to try again?

Are you suggesting that it's impossible for peasant uprisings to succeed? You might want to take that up with the French.

#806
RedArmyShogun

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Minus thats not a common example, and it was put down (in a manner) and replaced with a new Emperor who wasn't technically even French soon after. Peasant Revolts only work when three things happen.

When One its nation, or at least several Citties wide.

Two When it has a clear Objective and leadership. Had a Kingslanding revolt worked, Stannis would have thanked them. Then killed them.

Three, it must have an endgame, not a revolt just because, as as we seen in Libya the Factions will turn on one another.

No revolt that has not met those has ever won out, either in the long or the short term. Peasant revolts have happend and do happen, but an agry mob never has been and never will be a match for orginized force in number once it reachs it. The human wave is not an effectitve tactic when all they have is fists and sticks.

Those revolts that have Won, either had common cause, and military assistance (Red Revolution in Russia). Common Ideaology, and endgame (French Peasant Revolts towards the end of the 100 years war) Or common greviance with a common leadership who united the factions (various Chinese dynastic revolts)

Those who don't meet those goals can "win" but are doomed to failure or death. Might be next year, might be 30. For example the French revolution was a Failure from a point of view. Yes it removed two idiot rulers, but it also proped up another soon after as far as times go, who while more "loved" also got more Son's of France killed, than the previous one. This happend as they had no long term endgame and the period after the revolution was a cluster****.

Or you have the Yellow Turban Revolt, which in the end was put down and led in its aftermath to a Reunification of China. The Siant Petersberg Revolt Was another Failure, it launched before given the go ahead by the Communist Leadership, and other Cities did not join in. While outnumber heavily, better trained, better equipped, and commanded by better officer, Loyal Imperial Russian Forces, put it down quickly, and with massive lose of life to the attacker.

In the Case of Kings Landing could a massive peasant revolt broke the shield wall, or storm the Red Keep? Only if 20 were ready to die for each defender, that is if by some miricle they got a leader with a grasp of military tactics. Just charging head on is not highly effective, you can ask the Persians who fought the Spartans about that one, Or Germanic tribes the first times they blindly charged Roman positions. And just killing the Snake is not a win. Another will as always pop up. Plus with the hidden Tunnles that the common folk have no knowladge of...well Joff was a loving sort.

I'm sure after escaping he would not have orderd the City sealed and burned so no one may have it.

So no I'm suggestiong STUPID Peasant don't work. And the Kingslanding one was a stupid one, in fact when it first started they ran out of steam so fast it wasn't even funny. I'm sure you can bring up Syria today, but I feel thats ongoing as largely Syria is holding back out of fear of Western Actions. They have lost no ground and have gained it slowly while using a fraction of force.

People can and do hate a governement and live under it. But enough of this, I suggest you gain a better grasp of Military History. In the Case of Westros the only peasant force that would concern me and has a possiblity of winning is the Church of the 7 leading a revolt, much as happen in Iran not so long ago.

On Topic love that comic LPP.

Edit for typo's I really should not post so early in the morning lulz...hope I got them all. Or least most of em.

Modifié par Confess-A-Bear, 15 juin 2012 - 01:02 .


#807
LPPrince

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Confess-A-Bear wrote...

On Topic love that comic LPP.


I can't believe I had to read that whole post just to get to this line. looool

#808
RedArmyShogun

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Yes I'm sorry for that, but I do love to make my points lulz. Hopefully now it will stop. I don't know how much more simple I can put it.

#809
Megaton_Hope

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Perhaps I should clarify, I meant "successful at killing the guys wearing the fancy hats." The French did enough of this that if Tyrion had been a French aristocrat he'd have been on the chopping block. Since Tyrion is fiercely protective of his own hide, this is the sort of thing that would concern him quite a bit. Whether the later government meets the needs of the people who beheaded him would seem to be beside the point.

Th' Bolsheviks also killed the Tsar and his family, of course. Basically everybody the White Guard could have latched onto as the rightful heir to the throne. And the Kulaks, who weren't even highly placed in society, because they might have imperialist leanings. I suspect that it got as bloody as it did partly because the Tsar responded to public unrest with the likes of Bloody Sunday in St. Petersburg in 1905. (In fact, without that one, it might not have become a revolution.)

Iranian revolution's actually a pretty good parallel, for the same reason those were. That is, because the Shah was making merry while the common people were miserable:

http://en.wikipedia...._Persian_Empire

Much the same as it was in Iraq under Nuri al-Said, 'course. People got to talking about what would happen to the Sheiks "when the revolution comes." And then it did, of course.

Syria's an evolving situation, much like Egypt, but of course Libya ended with a crowd shooting Gaddafi in the face, which was presumably a bad deal for Gaddafi personally.

Illiterate peasants in Flea Bottom won't know too much about that kind of thing, of course, even in Westeros's own history. They'd be more concerned about whether their next meal is coming. Maesters might have more to say on the subject, perhaps having earned a link for writing analyses of their world's version of Machiavelli.

#810
twincast

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Westeros.org reviewing season two -- I'm with Linda.

edit:
They try their hardest not to (clearly) reference anything past book two, but a couple of things increasingly slip through.

And to clarify: I'm of course not quite as invested in ASoIaF and I wildly disagree with her ranking ACoK the lowest in the series so far (in fact I rate it the highest), but every other thing, large and small, she said was spot on. Elio's ever so slightly too forgiving IMHO.

Modifié par twincast, 16 juin 2012 - 11:32 .


#811
RedArmyShogun

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Oh on the purely killing the leadership route, possible. I was speaking of a general coup. Most people in Westros are just too dumb for that lulz.

Would be neat if the High Sept, did attempt a religious Coup though.

#812
Megaton_Hope

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Speaking of dumb, I've gotta say, Theon Greyjoy's scheme to take the north sure had some holes in it.

#813
RedArmyShogun

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Not holes so much as him trying to impress do too much and not facing the facts of the matter. His plan was stupid and unrealistic. I wonder if he'll escape death again.

On a side note I wodner, just what is the Greyscale? And if it turns people into rocks, or is that just how it looks. And I wonder if it has been just slowed in the case of Shireen Baratheon. If so, she could never wed or have children as frankly what man would risk it? So in a manner given the Age of Stannis, and just how he is in reguards to love making, his crown is doomed from the start.

Modifié par Confess-A-Bear, 16 juin 2012 - 08:20 .


#814
twincast

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While it borrows from a number of real world diseases (cholera and plague among others) it most sounds like a fantasified mix of smallpox and chickenpox, the Essosi strand basically being the former plus zombification, the Westerosi strand basically being the latter other than being more severe looking. If one is to believe the wildlings instead of the maesters though, they aren't really wildly different strands and the Seven Kingdoms have just been lucky so far. I however find it more likely that if anything Shireen will be the key to defeating the death brought over by Jon Connington, rather than that she'll be the source of another outbreak.

#815
Megaton_Hope

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I wanna say it actually turns you to stone. That's cooler.

The germ theory of disease was being debated in our world as recently as the late 19th century, though. So maybe, although they grasp that you can catch it, they're unclear on how.

#816
Megaton_Hope

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That Ramsay Bolton thing just came out of nowhere. I didn't even remember what he was talking about by the time I got there. (Still reading Clash of Kings, almost done.)

#817
Brockololly

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Hmmmm....going by how GRRM ends up foreshadowing things, look back on this snippet from A Game of Thrones:

"When the spring thaw comes, they will find your body with a needle still locked tight between your frozen fingers."- Jon Snow to Arya in Arya's first chapter in AGoT

Arya is going to die :(


And a more recent interview with GRRM where he talks a bit about the books and the show, including season 2- interview starts at around the 8minute 30second mark

Modifié par Brockololly, 24 juin 2012 - 05:44 .


#818
Costin_Razvan

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Megaton_Hope wrote...

Speaking of dumb, I've gotta say, Theon Greyjoy's scheme to take the north sure had some holes in it.


Theon ultimately thinks that by holding Winterfell for as long as possible he is buying time for his uncle Victarion to fortify Moat Caillin to the south since Rodrik's army can't march on the moat until they take back Winterfell.

In truth Asha was a ****** for not marching her force to reinforce Theon. She talks about them needing supplies...well Winterfell has massive granaries and it had a garisson of 600, so if it's food she's worried about then that's really no issue.

Modifié par Costin_Razvan, 24 juin 2012 - 10:01 .


#819
Seagloom

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Arya dying is practically a given. I never expected anything less despite her being one of my personal favorites. Someone who chases death as she does is destined to find it. The only real question is how many names she crosses off her list before it's over.

I can't see an uplifting end for most of the characters in this story. GRRM has made it very clear this is not a romanticized world where happy endings exist outside old songs and fairy tales.

#820
Megaton_Hope

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Costin_Razvan wrote...
In truth Asha was a ****** for not marching her force to reinforce Theon. She talks about them needing supplies...well Winterfell has massive granaries and it had a garisson of 600, so if it's food she's worried about then that's really no issue.

I think she made a prudent choice. Holding Deepwood Motte would have been trouble enough. (Turns out they couldn't even do that, and as Asha had pointed out, the Greyjoys could land men there practically at will. They had to reinforce Winterfell by frogmarching men from the nearest friendly shore or keep. And they had all of one friendly keeps.)

Various sources on the internet suggest that the Eyrie's granary is as large as Winterfell's, and "enough to keep a small household for over a year." With Theon's seventeen, no big deal. (Except that they have to hold the walls against superior forces that surround them on every side but one, and hostile smallfolk.) More men makes for fewer supplies (on a zero sum basis), though, and both men and supplies have to travel.

It's kind of the classic mistake we've been making over the last century; a strong support network makes for a strong occupation. A weak support network makes for a strong insurgency.

#821
LPPrince

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Great interview with George R. R. Martin

#822
Addai

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GRRM posted some writing updates at his blog.  The things that caught my eye:

"THE WINDS OF WINTER. Also known as 'Son of Kong.' Working on it. Lots to do.

THE WORLD OF ICE AND FIRE. The concordance. Elio and Linda are my partners on this one, a compendium of the history and legends of the world of Westeros. A coffee table book, lots of gorgeous art from such talents as Ted Nasmith, Justin Sweet, and others. Making good progress on this one of late, lots of great historical stuff that I think my readers will enjoy. Never before revealed details of Aegon's Conquest, the War With the Faith, The Dance of the Dragons, the Paramours of Aegon the Unworthy, etc.

....
Dunk & Egg #4, An original novella of Dunk & Egg. Working on it. Hope to have it done by worldcon. It's scheduled to be published in

DANGEROUS WOMEN. A huge crossgenre anthology that Gardner Dozois and I are doing for Tor. Largely complete, except for Dunk & Egg. Well, we're waiting for three rewrites, but my own story will likely be the last one in, then we can move this one to 'done and delivered.'"

Never before revealed details sound pretty cool!!  Worldcon is at the end of August.  So I would guess we would see Dunk & Egg 4 by the end of the year.  *impatient sigh*

Modifié par Addai67, 26 juin 2012 - 10:49 .


#823
Brockololly

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Nice- I can't wait for more Dunk and Egg stories!

#824
Seagloom

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Oooh. definitely gotta look into The World of Ice and Fire. Justin Sweet has been one of my favorite artists ever since I first saw his work in Icewind Dale. His grasp of anatomy is mesmerizing.

#825
Brockololly

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Seagloom wrote...

Oooh. definitely gotta look into The World of Ice and Fire. Justin Sweet has been one of my favorite artists ever since I first saw his work in Icewind Dale. His grasp of anatomy is mesmerizing.


Cool- I always liked the portraits and art from Icewind Dale but never bothered finding out who did much of it.

Just googling brings up what looks like Jon Snow and Ghost by Justin Sweet:
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