Terror_K wrote...
I personally think that publisher's and developers aren't giving the gaming community enough credit either. I think many gamers want variety and fresh, different games. If they didn't, Portal 2 would have flopped. Same with other titles trying to actually be different like Heavy Rain, L.A. Noire, etc. The problem is that a lot of publishers are looking at what sells well and simply saying, "gamers want more of that!" and are going with all the safe options they know will sell, rather than putting out something a little more different and risky on the chance it may not perform.
To be honest though, they really don't have much choice in the matter, they've gotta work like that now.
There's two forces at work...
1. Our friend above touched upon one of them, the extreme cost of making games as our rendering abilities have far exceeded our generating abilities. We can render incredible detail, but our tools are so primitive that it takes a mammoth effort to achieve it. The only option is brute force at present.
2. Continual mismangement in the Industry. Little known fact is that games that sell well get certain people bonuses, in some cases big ones. IIRC, the ID teams were getting 5 and 6 figure bonus checks through the Quake series. So the Suits in charge want the bonuses, which means they're only going to be interested in the games with the highest margin, which means anything not the largest seller generally gets bypassed. This has generated an onslaught of Shooters, RTS, and whatever sold really well in the last 2 years. So Gamer's are playing the same couple games over and over, and eventually they start getting jaded. First the "Average" (Shooter/RTS/Fad) stops selling, then the "Good" ones don't sell as well, finally only the very best sell.
So what's happened is that we have an Industry driven entirely by targeting the highest margin instead of making a quality product, and generating the games take sizeable amounts of investment. Couple this with the fact that no small amount of the game's expense is for people who contribute nothing to it's development, a Suit does nothing for the game's development, but his associated cost is not small. In other words, a sizeable amount of the expense is for people who produce no work.
This is starting to reach critical proportions where nearly everyone in the Industry is one bad year away from bankruptcy, except for SOE, Activision, and Microsoft, every publisher and studio is living on a knife blade. So they've forced themselves into a position where they literally can't take risk, because if they do and it doesn't pan out, they're jobless. So they just push out the same game over and over hoping to survive one more year.
Which is exactly why the 20% drop projected for 2011 is industry-shaking, and why the probability that 2012 won't be any better is a prophecy of doom. Odds are very good by the end of 2012, the Industry will be alot smaller and some big names will have fallen.