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The trouble with Reaper Cycle Synchronism


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#1
Lapis Lazuli

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Soveriegn said that the purpose for the mass relays was to evolve organic life upon the paths that they desire. Hmmm... A couple of things:

1) The milky way is 39 trillion cubic light years in volume. They haven't demonstrated a level of tech capable of going throught that with a fine-tooth comb.
2) The shear lack of number of relays means that the vast majority of the galaxy is woefully un-manipulated by their scheme.
3) Even if we exclude areas of the galaxy that are obviously not in synch and so far away from relays that the sentients would have to discover FTL on their own (which seems possible since there are craft in ME that can do limited FTL without relays); a 50,000 year cycle rougly only matches human and similar species frequency of development. It doesn't necessarily have any sychronism with other types of species. Evolution isn't based on time, it's based on number of generations. That's why bacteria can adapt to immunizing drugs in a matter of a few years; it's because they turn over generations so quickly.

So for instance, a very short-lived highly intelligent species turning  over generations at a much greater rate than humans could in theory reach space-faring stage quicker. Lets say for extremes that they're like Salarians times 5, living about 8 years and reaching maturity at an extremly young age. The Reapers could theoretically finish reaping the galaxy, then 10,000 years later, this species discovers the beacon. Then such a species has a 40,000 year and possibly 20,000 generation headstart on the reapers.

In fact, the Protheans were so close to figuring out reaper tech on their own, that we don't even need to go to the extreme of Salarians times 5.

Modifié par Lapis Lazuli, 17 juillet 2011 - 07:09 .


#2
SojournerN7

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I don't believe the reapers are on a 50,000 year "reaping" cycle. That's just how long ago the Prothean's had allegedly been wiped out. Remeber that Sovereign's task was to monitor the progression of galactic civiliztions, then signal the Keepers to open the Relay to Dark Space when the time was right.

I'm with you on these points partially. However, it's generally assumed that the reapers require a large(!) population of a species in which to convert into a reaper and whatnot. Even though they can't monitor every section of space, there would be no real need to act on such a small population.

Even confined to a small area of space, the amount of colinzeable planets would be fairly scarce. They would have to expand to the reelay network at some point to grow as a population to such a point that it warrants a reaper invasion.

Now there is the possibility that the species could develop so far as to create their own FTL devices and end up at the citadel in a very short time while being incredibly technologically advanced to possibly combat the reapers, but I think the reapers would have the larger numbers.

#3
Lapis Lazuli

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Sojourner83 wrote...

I don't believe the reapers are on a 50,000 year "reaping" cycle. That's just how long ago the Prothean's had allegedly been wiped out. Remeber that Sovereign's task was to monitor the progression of galactic civiliztions, then signal the Keepers to open the Relay to Dark Space when the time was right.


If that's the case it does change things. But if the time spent in dark space is to "re-charge" in some way, as many speculate, then even variable cycling is a problem... If they have to come back into the galaxy too soon to be at sufficient strength.

#4
Lapis Lazuli

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Sojourner83 wrote...
.

Now there is the possibility that the species could develop so far as to create their own FTL devices and end up at the citadel in a very short time while being incredibly technologically advanced to possibly combat the reapers, but I think the reapers would have the larger numbers.


I think this too goes to what they have to do in dark space. Perhaps the reapers numbers depends on how long they were able to linger in dark space.

#5
BoogieManFL

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Maybe the Reapers we are aware of are just a unit responsible for this part of the galaxy. Maybe they have other relay systems set up elsewhere that keep species away from each other so they are less likely to band together to defend themselves in great numbers.

#6
Ashepard

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I don't think the generation time being short matters, just how intelligent a species is. If it's more intelligent, it will advance further during the 50,000 years.

In fact, I would say that a long generation time is far more beneficial for advancement, as thousand year old elders can retain much more information than a race that had to reteach everything to new children every 5 years. Imagine if Einstein lived to 1,000 years old and spent all of that time researching and figuring things out, how much would get done.

#7
Lapis Lazuli

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Ashepard wrote...

I don't think the generation time being short matters, just how intelligent a species is. If it's more intelligent, it will advance further during the 50,000 years.

In fact, I would say that a long generation time is far more beneficial for advancement, as thousand year old elders can retain much more information than a race that had to reteach everything to new children every 5 years. Imagine if Einstein lived to 1,000 years old and spent all of that time researching and figuring things out, how much would get done.


Yes, once you get to the level of science and education, a longer lifespan is better. But when you're talking about evolving, i.e actual changes in brain chemistry and capacity, then you need generations. That's what the majority of the 50,000 years was about. In the grand scheme of things, only lately have we stopped hunting-and-gathering and just recently started planting crops and writing things down.

In fact, one could surmise that the Salarians' quick-wittedness is due to evolutionalry brain chemistry changes needed to help survival with a shorter lifespan...absorbing more information in a shorter period of time.

Modifié par Lapis Lazuli, 18 juillet 2011 - 03:20 .


#8
Dean_the_Young

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Lapis Lazuli wrote...

Soveriegn said that the purpose for the mass relays was to evolve organic life upon the paths that they desire. Hmmm... A couple of things:

1) The milky way is 39 trillion cubic light years in volume. They haven't demonstrated a level of tech capable of going throught that with a fine-tooth comb.

Sure they have. They have more than the technology and time to make trillions of probes to wait in the dark space between galaxies, ready to detect radio waves or artificial light coming from systems within their range.

2) The shear lack of number of relays means that the vast majority of the galaxy is woefully un-manipulated by their scheme.

Not really. Besides the part we don't know how many relays there are (even the galaxy map is an approximation of routes, not literalism), we also know that the Council has a very long policy of not exploring down Relays it does know about but hasn't traveled. The galaxy is littered with entire relay chains the Council hasn't gone down.

More importantly, however, Mass Relays don't have to be in every system, just close enough so that a star-spanning empire will eventually come across them. A space-faring species which hasn't/can't find a Mass Relay is one too small to be of much consequence. By the time it can go to other solar systems at any appreciable pace, it will eventually find a Relay.

3) Even if we exclude areas of the galaxy that are obviously not in synch and so far away from relays that the sentients would have to discover FTL on their own (which seems possible since there are craft in ME that can do limited FTL without relays); a 50,000 year cycle rougly only matches human and similar species frequency of development. It doesn't necessarily have any sychronism with other types of species. Evolution isn't based on time, it's based on number of generations. That's why bacteria can adapt to immunizing drugs in a matter of a few years; it's because they turn over generations so quickly.

As has already been said, the 50,000 is a generalization made from the Prothean extinction to us. At best, it's an average: after all, we know that Sovereign most likely tried to trigger the Mass Relay before the Rachni Wars, or just about 49,000 years after the Protheans.

In fact, the Protheans were so close to figuring out reaper tech on their own, that we don't even need to go to the extreme of Salarians times 5.

The only Reaper tech we have any reason to believe the Protheans were close to understanding was that of the Mass Relays (and, because the Citadel is a Mass Relay, parts of the Citadel). Which is to say, the only publicly available tech.

It's not like it's necessarily beyond our ability either: according to Matriarch Bartender, the primary resistance to studying the relays is cultural/political.

#9
Lapis Lazuli

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Dean_the_Young wrote...

Lapis Lazuli wrote...

Soveriegn said that the purpose for the mass relays was to evolve organic life upon the paths that they desire. Hmmm... A couple of things:

1) The milky way is 39 trillion cubic light years in volume. They haven't demonstrated a level of tech capable of going throught that with a fine-tooth comb.

 

Sure they have. They have more than the technology and time to make trillions of probes to wait in the dark space between galaxies, ready to detect radio waves or artificial light coming from systems within their range.


Trillions of probes...
1 cubic light year is 216 trillion trillion trillion cubic miles. there are 39 trillion of those in the milky way. That's 8.4 quadrillion trillion trillion trillion cubic miles. I'm not saying your one of them, but a lot of people don't deeply ponder the number 1 trillion. One way to come to terms with it is to imagine yourself counting to a trillion. There are about 31 million seconds in a year. If you could count every second, including the extra long numbers that you will be saying, it would only take you roughly 30 years to count to a billion. It would therefore take you about 30,000 years to count to a trillion. Here come them damn Reapers interrupting my count again! 

Probes watching EM band in dark space might not be such a good idea because of the time lag involved with EM. You won't be watching the current state of affairs--far from it. The information will be old. 

Modifié par Lapis Lazuli, 18 juillet 2011 - 11:37 .


#10
Lapis Lazuli

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Dean_the_Young wrote...

Lapis Lazuli wrote...

2) The shear lack of number of relays means that the vast majority of the galaxy is woefully un-manipulated by their scheme.


Not really. Besides the part we don't know how many relays there are (even the galaxy map is an approximation of routes, not literalism), we also know that the Council has a very long policy of not exploring down Relays it does know about but hasn't traveled. The galaxy is littered with entire relay chains the Council hasn't gone down.

More importantly, however, Mass Relays don't have to be in every system, just close enough so that a star-spanning empire will eventually come across them. A space-faring species which hasn't/can't find a Mass Relay is one too small to be of much consequence. By the time it can go to other solar systems at any appreciable pace, it will eventually find a Relay.


I hadn't considered the possibility that the number of relays we are shown is not representative. That's a good one. As far as your second part, I don't know if necessarily a star spanning empire that discovers a relay isn't already 'off the path' that the reapers are trying to establish for organic life. And they could have comparable technology of their own when they do find the relays. And I would posit that such a civilization would not be so 'dependent-minded' with regards to the keepers and such. Since this theoretical group wasn't advancde by discovering relays, they would be less likely to fall for the trap.

Modifié par Lapis Lazuli, 18 juillet 2011 - 11:46 .


#11
Dean_the_Young

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Lapis Lazuli wrote...

Dean_the_Young wrote...

Lapis Lazuli wrote...

Soveriegn said that the purpose for the mass relays was to evolve organic life upon the paths that they desire. Hmmm... A couple of things:

1) The milky way is 39 trillion cubic light years in volume. They haven't demonstrated a level of tech capable of going throught that with a fine-tooth comb.

 

Sure they have. They have more than the technology and time to make trillions of probes to wait in the dark space between galaxies, ready to detect radio waves or artificial light coming from systems within their range.


Trillions of probes...
1 cubic light year is 216 trillion trillion trillion cubic miles. there are 39 trillion of those in the milky way. That's 8.4 quadrillion trillion trillion trillion cubic miles. I'm not saying your one of them, but a lot of people don't deeply ponder the number 1 trillion. One way to come to terms with it is to imagine yourself counting to a trillion. There are about 31 million seconds in a year. If you could count every second, including the extra long numbers that you will be saying, it would only take you roughly 30 years to count to a billion. It would therefore take you about 30,000 years to count to a trillion. Here come them damn Reapers interrupting my count again!

The Reapers have literally nothing else they have to do. They have no higher economic needs to diver resources. They can pursue wildly uneconomical solutions to problems of scales... a scale that is even less important because not all of those light years have the same possibility for developing life. There's only one significant light year that really matters, and that's the one around a star.

In the meantim, they can make Von Neuman devices to do nothing but make factories to make probes. And they can have done this for billions of years, even as cycles rise and die.

And that's just Von Neuman factories making more factories, let alone the output of those factories.

Probes watching EM band in dark space might not be such a good idea because of the time lag involved with EM. You won't be watching the current state of affairs--far from it. The information will be old. 

So? You don't need up-to-date intel. Just enough to track the gradual growth of species. You just need to be able to track the development of basic technologies. Listening in for, say, the equivalent of radio broadcasts. Or just look for light patterns of the fires/electric lights of cities that long-predate civilization. Or just 'biosphere' detection.

#12
Dean_the_Young

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Lapis Lazuli wrote...

Dean_the_Young wrote...

Lapis Lazuli wrote...

2) The shear lack of number of relays means that the vast majority of the galaxy is woefully un-manipulated by their scheme.


Not really. Besides the part we don't know how many relays there are (even the galaxy map is an approximation of routes, not literalism), we also know that the Council has a very long policy of not exploring down Relays it does know about but hasn't traveled. The galaxy is littered with entire relay chains the Council hasn't gone down.

More importantly, however, Mass Relays don't have to be in every system, just close enough so that a star-spanning empire will eventually come across them. A space-faring species which hasn't/can't find a Mass Relay is one too small to be of much consequence. By the time it can go to other solar systems at any appreciable pace, it will eventually find a Relay.


I hadn't considered the possibility that the number of relays we are shown is not representative. That's a good one. As far as your second part, I don't know if necessarily a star spanning empire that discovers a relay isn't already 'off the path' that the reapers are trying to establish for organic life. And they could have comparable technology of their own when they do find the relays. And I would posit that such a civilization would not be so 'dependent-minded' with regards to the keepers and such. Since this theoretical group wasn't advancde by discovering relays, they would be less likely to fall for the trap.

Besides the probability of canonical tech limitations (just because Mass Effect is sci-fi doesn't mean it would tolerate other sci-fi technologies: no such thing as hyperdrives, for example, and other forms of FTL may well be impossible and should not be assumed to be possible by default), the fact of the universe is that the Reapers aren't some techno-zealots of a single development of technology. They tolerate a great deal of diversity: what do we have that's analogous to Prothean beacons, or genetic starships?

What's important to the Reapers isn't the exact technology a civilization uses, only that it takes advantage of the relay chain. And since the Mass Relays are so superior to everything else in the Mass Effect universe's technology spectrum, by the time anyone can reach other systems, they'll encounter the far superior FTL/dominant technology of Mass Effect  that puts them back on the literal paths. To get to the nearest Relay, you just need to break the barrier between solar systems... but the Relays themselves are so far in excess of that that unless you're already at galactic-scale FTL (again, in no way something to even assume is possible), the Relays are already superior.

#13
Humanoid_Typhoon

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Dean_the_Young wrote...

Lapis Lazuli wrote...

Dean_the_Young wrote...

Lapis Lazuli wrote...

Soveriegn said that the purpose for the mass relays was to evolve organic life upon the paths that they desire. Hmmm... A couple of things:

1) The milky way is 39 trillion cubic light years in volume. They haven't demonstrated a level of tech capable of going throught that with a fine-tooth comb.

 

Sure they have. They have more than the technology and time to make trillions of probes to wait in the dark space between galaxies, ready to detect radio waves or artificial light coming from systems within their range.


Trillions of probes...
1 cubic light year is 216 trillion trillion trillion cubic miles. there are 39 trillion of those in the milky way. That's 8.4 quadrillion trillion trillion trillion cubic miles. I'm not saying your one of them, but a lot of people don't deeply ponder the number 1 trillion. One way to come to terms with it is to imagine yourself counting to a trillion. There are about 31 million seconds in a year. If you could count every second, including the extra long numbers that you will be saying, it would only take you roughly 30 years to count to a billion. It would therefore take you about 30,000 years to count to a trillion. Here come them damn Reapers interrupting my count again!

The Reapers have literally nothing else they have to do. They have no higher economic needs to diver resources. They can pursue wildly uneconomical solutions to problems of scales... a scale that is even less important because not all of those light years have the same possibility for developing life. There's only one significant light year that really matters, and that's the one around a star.

In the meantim, they can make Von Neuman devices to do nothing but make factories to make probes. And they can have done this for billions of years, even as cycles rise and die.

And that's just Von Neuman factories making more factories, let alone the output of those factories.

Probes watching EM band in dark space might not be such a good idea because of the time lag involved with EM. You won't be watching the current state of affairs--far from it. The information will be old. 

So? You don't need up-to-date intel. Just enough to track the gradual growth of species. You just need to be able to track the development of basic technologies. Listening in for, say, the equivalent of radio broadcasts. Or just look for light patterns of the fires/electric lights of cities that long-predate civilization. Or just 'biosphere' detection.



Ugh...that idea is WAY too Forerunner setinel esque.