[quote]In Exile wrote...
[quote]Oopsieoops wrote...
The first sentence is a mistake since DA2's production was inbued into DAO's since the lore, the world, etc upon which DA2 was built was made during DAO's time. [/quote]
No, it's not a mistake, because you're putting inordinate value on lore and setting, and not on what actually makes a computer game:
the engine, the assets, the gameplay, the ruleset, the QA, the models, the animations, the camera work, etc. etc. etc.
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The argument still stands.
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[quote]The second on is IMO just mindblowing, considering how much backlash DA2's direction was causing from the moment it was announced. Also, it's hard to swallow one couldn't conceive an obvious rush-job with so much recicled areas and half-working machanics would be poorly received.[/quote]
ME2's backlash was explosive. And ME2 is Bioware's best rated game.
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Not nearly as much as DA2's.
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Ideally for them would be to grab both markets, but as it happens that's about as likely as the same venue attracting both fast-food and high-class markets. They like not only different things but also outright opposite things, and trying to please both invariably ends up pleasing none. Which is, shockingly, what happened.
Also, I must say the mainstream market isn't as golden as most think. It's bigger, but also more competitive, unstable and unforgiving. [/quote]
You're acting as if the "niche" market isn't unstable or unforgiving. Given how much the fanbase exploded over DA2, for changes that are all things considered still totally about a niche market (because an action-RPG is still not a traditional genre, like an FPS).
Otherwise, the mainstream market is
bigger, and your expected value for a "hit" is much higher.
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The fanbase exploded over their attempt at abandoning the niche, not for staying on it. At any rate what I'm reffering to is how much you can get away with in the RPG market in terms of graphics, engine, and even gameplay in comparisson to other markers. The essential in RPGs are story and writing, which is the cheapest element.
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You don't have any training in business theory do you? In free competition profit rates in every market converge to the same level.[/quote]
Are you seriously going to talk about perfect competition right now? That's not even reasonable theory-crafting. Talking about the video-game market as a perfectively competitive market with the ability to freely enter the market is not just ridiculous, it's inconceivable to even the most cursory analysis.
The video game market is not perfectly competitive. The start-up costs are incredible and the entire industry is designed for to produce profits in the long-run, i.e. the basic assumption of perfect competition is violated.
What we have is an oligopoly.
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I'm not talking about perfect competition, I'm calling the mainstream market highly competitive. And it's precisely because of the high barriers to entry you're mentioning that makes pursuing it less advantageous than most think, specially for a company that already has huge advantages in the niche market. Though my argument isn't pursuing it per se so much as pursuing it in detriment of the niche market.
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[quote]What happens is that niches have less competion an therefore have an easier time making profits. They also enjoy stability and confirmed revenue, which if capitalized correctly is far more attractive than purely a bigger market. [/quote]No. That's not accurate at all.
AAA development costs are stable. Video-game prices are actually deflating. We're talking about a luxury good market run by oligopolies where the cost increases annually and sales/unit fall year over year.
A niche market is unsustainable at AAA rates. You could cater to a niche... but the niche is indie development, not DA:O.
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Those arguments are reforcing my points, not going against them... At any rate DAO managed to strike both niche and non niche markets, which is a remarkable achievement and which was squandered with DA2.
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[quote]Both pepsi and coke have rather average, unspecial tastes, so while they can grab a a bigger market slice, their customers quickly substitute when the prices go up. So although the mainstream cola market is bigger, RC gains more by sticking with their niche market.[/quote]This comparison fails for several reasons. The first is that Coke and Pepsi already
had mainstream audiences. The second is that even if you lose $$ to substitution, that doesn't mean that net shareholder return isn't greater than whatever growth a niche company experiences. Thirdly, companies that produce physical goods and suffer a cost of production
per unit have to deal with expansion costs because their cost is the cost of production/unit.
Software companies don't pay a cost to produce any individual unit - they pay to produce the software itself, and that's a sunk cost at the onset. Profits in software come from recovering the sunk cost of development in full.
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You misunderstood my analogy. Coke and Pepsi have more volatile markets just like the casual game market is more volatile. Regarding physical production it doesn't come into play in any way. RC doesn't expand into mainstream markets because increasing production would be costly, increasing production in response to increased demand is by definition a profitable action. In fact this argument is utterly groundless because if anything economy to scale would decrease costs per unity.
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[quote]Again, that shows you don't anything about business theory. The opportunity cost of converting a company from niche market to mainstream is enormous and the potential revenue uncertain.[/quote]Once again: you are wrong about what a niche is in video-gaming. Bioware was never a niche company. BG was never a niche product. AAA development costs were what Bioware always faced. We are not talking about
But if we look a Bioware RPGs themselves as a "niche" you're still wrong about breaking down opportunity cost.
For one, you're already defining this as a dichotomy: go from one to the other, instead of slowly transition per release while growing your audience. For another, you're
completely failing to account for cost.
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This suggests me you misunderstood what we're aguing about in the first place. I never argued against BW trying to reach the mainstream market, I argued against it doing so in detriment of its already established niche market. IOW, if they want reach casual gamers they ought to do it with a franchise purposedly built for that. ME was such an attempt, and it was successful. DAO was a niche franchise (yes, I'm defining RPG itself as niche) and use it to reach the casual gamer was a huge mistake.
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[quote]Like I said, having an stablished niche market is an incredibly valuable asset in capitalism. [/quote]No, you're still wrong. You're wrong because you're basing this off industry and not software.
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If anything that holds more true regarding software industry than conventional goods.
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[quote]Also, there's no garantee that you will succeed in grabbing the new market, while it is certain that you will lose you previous. [/quote]That's ridiculous. You're talking about pulling things out of my rear end, and then you talk about
certainly losing fans when expanding out of a niche and having "uncertain" gains? Lol.
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Abandoning something = certainly losing it. Honestly, I'd think that should be easy enough to understand. As for expanding into, you're going into a new territory and as such the uncertainty is inherent.
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[quote]Those numbers have absolutely nothing to do with reality and in fact the exact opposite is demonstrated by DA sales. Numbers you pull out from you rear end are garbage as arguments.[/quote]Ah, but the number of people who didn't pre-order DA2 because of all the research they did and the love they had for DA:O that you based entirely on your own experience, that was based on years of market research, right?
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Could you please quote me when I cited numbers? No? Well, I didn't think so.
EDIT: typos
Modifié par Oopsieoops, 01 septembre 2011 - 10:53 .