In Exile wrote...
mrcrusty wrote...
I've seen J E Sawyer (New Vegas lead designer) claim something similar on his formspring. He goes on to say that a lot of the issues are publisher related. There is nothing limiting a developer from making that turn based isometric game RPG fans are hankering for. Except for money. No publisher would fund it. Likely not because it would lose money, but because it wouldn't make enough. Not many publishers want to spend $5-10 million over a 3 year period on a game that brings back $15 million. They want to spend $20-30 million over a 2 year period to make $50-100 million.
Which is a shame, because I really love turn-based combat.
But it always come back to opportunity cost. It's (IMO) the issue with DA:O versus DA2. If RPG fans were dedicated enough to organize and raise the capital for an RPG game as a 'group' publisher maybe you'd start to see AAA development of turn-based RPGs, but otherwise we're SOL.
That's not even it though, the problem is the Industry is lead by the second rate buisness graduates, because 5 years ago, or 10 years ago, "Real" buisness people didn't go into gaming. The people leading the Industry don't have a clue how to run a healthy industry.
They only want the blockbusters because they see that as their way to get their name in lights, and get a big bonus (Games with high sales give bonus checks out). So they don't want to be the guy pushing the game with 5 million profit, they want to be the guy pushing the game with 50 million. Since traditionally, certain genres have higher sales than others, that's all they want to hear about. "Turn based games won't sell, RPG's won't sell, RTS won't sell", it's all been said recently by some studio head or another. What they mean is, "That won't sell as much as this".
This is what started us onto the path of financial insolvency.
The problem is, and we're seeing it now, is that it's a self-terminating buisness plan.
Let's look at Hollywood. Horror movies usually only make a couple million in proft, comedies usually only make a couple million, 10 years ago comic book movies only made a few million. But Hollywood knows that the key to health is diversification, so they budget those movies according to what they historically make, and take a few million in profit. Then, sometimes, they accidently make Blair Witch, Saw, Hangover, X-men, and suddenly receive hundreds of millions if not billions in profits.They don't make endless clones of Pirates of the Carribbean because the series is well over 4 billion, probably closer to 6 or 8, because they know that rehashing one thing over and over leads to fatigue.
Gaming Industry doesn't get this.
So they keep plugging after whatever was hot 12-24 months ago, thinking they can sell just as many units. Bury themselves in debt with the delusion that it'll work, and stagnate the entire industry down to FPS and TPS with very few alternatives.
People will get sick of it, they already are. 2010 was down pretty much the whole year. 2011 had two or maybe 3 positive months, and the rest have been down, most of it double digits. Eliminate WoW, Starcraft 2, and Grand Turismo 5 from 2010 and the picture becomes amazingly bad, COD is pretty much all that's saved 2011 so far. People are getting tired of endless shooters.
The industry is choking itself on it's greed, and on it's inability to see how critical diversification is. I would bet real money that 2012 becomes a raging disaster, and I wouldn't be surprised to see high-profile bankruptcies, because I think they're hitting the critical point of oversaturation and I sincerely doubt their ability to shift direction before it's too late.