Akka le Vil wrote...
Supreme Commander 2, Crysis 2, Dragon Age 2, Civilization V, Deus Ex : Invisible War and many others have shown it. They usually don't outsold their predecessor, making all the changes "for better sales" useless and dubious, and all the money thrown into such marketing compeltely wasted and pointless (in other words : such changes are simply costing more for no additionnal benefit, and often reduced benefits), and more often than not killed the goodwill of the community, threatening fewer sales for the next iteration of the franchise.
Also, you can be pretty sure that none of them will be ever considered a "classic" few years down. If a new sequel is made, it will be built on the fame of their predecessor, not their own. Again, no benefit.
Of course not, if you look at it completely from the perspective of hindsight. Companies don't have the luxury of looking at the results of their decisions before making them, while players have every luxury of being able to judge a decision long after its results are already known. If we're making a decision based on "it'll sell more," we have to do so before any sales are made, before any numbers are released. This is, of course, long before players get their hands on the game. heck, it may even be long before the game has been announced.
It's like buying a lottery ticket, right? You can't predict whether you will win the jackpot, but you purchase it in the hopes of winning the jackpot. If you win, no one can say anything because, hey, you won, but if you don't win, your friends will ask "why would you buy a lottery ticket? You lost!" You have to decide to take that risk (spending the money on a ticket) in order to potentially reap the reward. If you never buy the ticket, the chances of winning are precisely zero. the same concept applies to game development. if we never try anything new, nothing changes. Games will become more expensive, advertising will get more expensive, but if all you're doing is targeting the same people each and every time, the chances of gaining a significant amount of sales to help position you for future development are pretty slim.
In other words, to come back at what I was saying : the move to follow marketing crap had not brang benefit, it has actually been counter-productive - despite higher costs.
So even on a purely commercial side (which is not even the one that should be given the highest priority) it's not a good move. So why the hell is it so often done ?
You should ask yourself the same question but put yourself in the company's shoes for a second. If it never works, why would it be tried at all, and by so many companies? Logically, one would conclude that it must work more often than not, since the company is spending so much money on advertising. And the results of it working are probably pretty significant, if the company is willing to risk that much on it. Companies rarely do something just for the heck of it, and that becomes more true the bigger the company is.
So why do it? Because it can work and can be of great benefit. It would be tough to prove because I can't bring any numbers into play, but as much as I disagree with it, movies have advertising budgets that are sometimes larger than the development budgets. it doesn't always work, sure, but compared to films which don't get that advertising, it certainly makes a difference.
Let's take two hypothetical films, Movie A with a Vengeance and Last Call for Movie B. It's summer blockbuster season and the studios behind each film wants to attract as many moviegoers as possible on opening weekend. Movie A With a Vengeance has a huge advertising budget, and uses it like it's going out of style. MAWV Studio takes out TV spots, so whenever you watch TV, every other commercial break screams MOVIE A WITH A VENGEANCE at you. The studio also advertises on your favourite websites. MOVIE A! MOVIE A! MOVIE A! WITH A VENGEANCE! It also takes up space at all the summer conventions. MOVIE A here! MOVIE A there! And, of course, let's not forget all the Movie A With a Vengeance, t-shirts, action figures, ringtones, Happy Meals, banners, screenshots, video clips, cosplayers and such.
Unfortunately, Last Call for Movie B has a significantly smaller budget but is coming out at the same time as Movie A With a Vengeance, but they try to do the same thing as Movie A on a smaller scale. Now, when you watch TV, the ads go Movie A, Movie A, Movie A, Last Call for Movie B, Movie A, Movie A, Movie A, Movie A. When you go to your favourite websites, you see MOVIE A! MOVIE A! MOVIE A! MOVIE A WITH A VENGEANCE! MOVIE A! and over there in the corner is, i think, maybe Movie B. MOVIE A! VENGEANCE ! VENGEANCE! VENGEANCE! MOVIE A! MOVIE A! At the summer conventions, there's only one Last Call for Movie B character running around with photocpied leaflets, while everyone's flocking to the Movie A cosplayers handing out REPLICA VENGEANCE GUNS! VENGEANCE GUNS! VENGEANCE VENGEANCE VENGEANCE! As for ancillary products, Movie B can only afford Last Call plushies, which do sell pretty well from the one site that sells them.
Which film do you think will attract the most audience? Probably Movie A, since they've saturated the market and people's brains with imagery, tag lines and titles from Movie A With a Vengeance. Heck, even leaving this post, the phrase MOVIE A WITH A VENGEANCE might stick in your head a little bit, since I emphasized it more and mentioned it more often. With all the competition in not just the videogames industry, but all other entertainment media and distractions, it seems necessary to spend that money in order to get, hold and keep people's interest in your product.