Upsettingshorts wrote...
Reposting from status update comment:
the_one_54321 wrote...
As an aside to a thread I cannot post in; you can formalize a definitively uncertain process. I say this with confidence because it is the basis upon which much of engineering is founded. You identify the level uncertainty you measure it against the level of uncertain which has been previously determined to be acceptable.
In fact, this is exactly how storm water structure designs have been determined for decades. It's an entirely probabilistic approach to storm sizes. It is uncertain by definition. And it is also entirely formal.
And do you understand what that comment says?
Then please explain how it relates to the discussion you had here.
I'll make it easy for you. The fact that uncertainties can be formalized, doesn't mean that they can always be, in particular when you're uncertain what you're uncertain about. And that you think it can be done, doesn't mean that it is a done fact. You still have to do it. Finally, even if you formalize a process that contains uncertainties, those processes often end up having the property of being unpredictable. Unpredictable, even in a strict mathematical sense. Engineering exists in the islands of the predictable, or bets on a probability of being on an island.
Sylvanius statement though was: If you can't formalize the process, then you cannot reasonably be confident in the effectiveness of that process.
As usual, with Sylvanius, simple, clear, correct. (And from it doesn't follow that you can predict if you can formalize.)
You can however
guess the outcome, consciously based on empirical experience and unconsciously, gut feeling, on subtle processes which are a beyond-huge undertaking to try to understand, explain or formalize.
That seems to be good enough for Sylvanius opponents here.
I don't really have a desire to involve myself in any of Sylvanius discussions, I don't have the time or patience, but
my note would be: That the 'gut feeling' very often is dramatically wrong, and that what you thought/assumed empirical evidence would show, is often actually the opposite. Yet, we often get by with that. And sometimes when we don't, there are lots of talking, talking, in a process that adapts our languages to each others, that we may communicate better another time. This, to me, is communication, through languages.
If people would just take Sylvanius for exactly what he says, rather than trying to rephrase or extend his argument all the time, people might find him very easy to understand.
I do.
Modifié par bEVEsthda, 29 octobre 2011 - 12:15 .