1. I can't see Ferelden support unless you can get at least one or two other nation's support. I just don't think they can risk ticking off other nations while still being weakened by the blight. How to go about geting Orzammar's support? More money? If threatened with violence, I can't see Orzammar risk getting into a conflict while constantly having to face darkspawn.
I see a split down the middle happening. Assuming the mages can find Divine Justinia V, then they can persuade other nations to join their cause. And Ferelden would stand a much better chance of holding out against an invasion.
Though they'd stand a great chance already with the mages, a potential alliance with the Dwarves, and Loghain assuming he was kept alive at the Landsmeet.
Not every nation would support the mages however, but I can definitely see.... Antiva, half of Orlais, Ferelden, and possibly Nevarra siding with the mages. Maybe part of Rivain as well.
2. Agreed. Isolation only leads down to more fear and conflicts. Though harder to immideately deal with, popular support'll have to be more needed. I have a hard time seeing the mages get popular support between the conflict being started with a mage blowing up a church, the majority of citizens going to the chantry, and simply having the time and people to do that while dealing with the templars.
I doubt anyone outside of Kirkwall knew the full story. Cassandra acts like Hawke was the one that blew up the Chantry, when really it was Anders. Considering she's a Seeker and is incredibly important, if this detail escaped her knowledge then I doubt the rest of Thedas knew what happened.
Plus, it's clear that Anders' actions only served to show that the mages are being persecuted to the point of possible death. That if there is no one there to stand up for the mages, the Templars would just slaughter them all.
I can see a fair deal of sympathy going towards the mages after this, especially if they remind the world that two -- possibly three -- mages helped stop the Blight. One technically being an Abomination that helped protect the Divine -- I'm assuming. Haven't yet read Asunder unfortunately -- though I find that word to have far too much of a negative connotation.
3. This actually goes along with your second point. If they can get her support, that'll do wonders for popular support, and make them more hostile to the templars.
It will. The Templars that are fighting the mages have already made it clear that they want her killed and replaced with someone else. Someone that's less mage-friendly. So the Templars really painted themselves into a corner for this one, but then again they're just fanatical zealots.
And that has been the Chantry's biggest recruiting failure for the Templars. They focused on fervent faith in the Maker above a good moral compass.
In a way though, it's also the mage's success.
4. Well, we need to figure out what countries that could side with the mages first.
See point 1.
5. Greagoir's actually opposed to more mage autonomy in the ending of DA1. While he's practically an ideal templar between looking like he checks his sources(he's correct about Jowan) and only using the RoA when there was basically no other choice, it'll be interesting to see where he stands, and I hope to see him in DA3.
Gregoir also focuses on carrying out his duty to the Maker, the Chantry, and the Divine when required. His duty is to protect the mages from those that would do them harm -- demons and those in the mortal realm -- so I have no doubt that while he might initially be opposed to the idea of mages having more free, he'd eventually warm up to the idea especially given the Divine's support of the mages.
6. Isn't it mostly just the templars now they're fighting with the Chantry not being fully decided yet(You may have to explain this one to me. I haven't read Asunder.)
Sadly neither have I.
But yes, it's mostly just Rogue Templars that dislike the mages. They'll probably get support from like-minded nobility however.
7. This is definitely the ideal tactic though it'll have to be seen how this spreads mage resources and what counterattacks the templars can use. If the templars get dwarves on their side with the lyrium trade and can get them to deliver it, dwarves are pretty resistant to magic while it would make the dwarves back at orzammar more likely to be hostile to mages. Of course, it'd be delivered by surface dwarves, so the nobles probably wouldn't give a crap about them.
I see Orzammar taking the ideal opportunity to either:
A) sell to both sides to make a profit
or

shutting off their gates and keeping the lyrium to themselves so they can improve their arms and armor in the war against the Darkspawn.
Either option is promising, as mages are neither addicted to lyrium nor do they need it to cast their spells. Templars will eventually run out of money -- since the Chantry was the one issuing their paychecks -- and they'll go through withdrawal.
Once that happens, they'll either die or be delirious and possibly go on a pillaging spree, weakening their support.
8. The Qunari would be a common enemy and honestly how I see a compromise ultimately coming up in a future DA game.
It seems like Bioware has almost guaranteed the Qunari will invade.
And when that happens, I demand to see Sten. With a goatee. And a box of kittens.
I believe Sten will have importance to the Qun society. I see him as a reformist within the Qun, though sadly I'm alone in that belief.
Hermit was one of my favorite characters in DAO. The moment Morrigan said he had strong magic and had a worried look on her face was the moment I went
.
I miss the Mad Hermit.