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Doing the math: Normandy's fate


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#1
CptData

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My post is heavily related to that thread: Was the ending a hallucination? - so feel free to read it to get what I'm up to.

Bladewinger also contributed this link: Endings discussion.

Now, lets say the Endings are indeed hallucinations of Shepard's mind. S/he's dying after getting blasted by Harby's beam, so his/her last moments are just a dream of some sort.

Remember the Normandy? Somehow she's near the Charon Relay and for whatever reasons jumping out of Sol. I dunno why Joker is doing that stunt, it doesn't matter. Lets do some math here - I can "prove", Shepard is dreaming at this point. Or better: I can prove the Normandy's fate -CAN'T- be the one we saw in the Endings.


What do we have? The Normandy is in transit and gets pulled out by that shockwave. Right before it got hit, you clearly can see it's engines ripped apart, so you can assume the ship is unable to do any kind of travel anymore: the Normandy can't limp to the next star system or even the next planet anymore in case it ends in one already.

Normandy ends in a star system with planets: 1 : 1,000,000,000
The chances she'll end in a star system are already really bad. Space is pretty much empty and reallife science says, star systems like Sol are pretty much rare.
The Normandy however HAS to end in a star system with a star that's not too different from our Sun. And it has to have planets too.

The star system has a Garden World: 1 : 1,000
Maybe this is the only point where I can work with a real number. Lets say the Normandy stranded in a star system with planets, only one out of thousand may have a Garden World that's in the "green zone" of the star so water is a fluid and neither solid nor gaseous.

Garden World meets human requirements: 1 : 100
Right. The series shows ANY world supporting sapient life is a Garden World, that also includes extreme worlds like Irune or Dekuuna (spelling?). Those worlds are simply not suitable for human life, but they're still called "Garden Worlds".
However, the world we see in the end looks pretty much like earthlike.

The Normandy ends right in the orbit of said world: 1 : 1,000,000
And I'm sure that number is still too low. What do you think, how high are the chances the Normandy does NOT hit the planet at incredible speed? How high are the chances the Normandy respawned in orbit of said planet and not in its core?
As I said, the ship got no engines anymore, so it HAS to end in the orbit of a planet. And it has to be the Garden World in that system. That's -very- unlikely.

The Normandy survives the crash: 1 : 1,000
Now ... you got it. The Normandy lost her engines and might fall of the sky like a brick. And survives the crash. And so does the crew.


Now multiply the numbers and you get an idea how unlikely the fate of the Normandy truly is.
It's this number: 1 : 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

And I'm not even working with real numbers here. It's most likely that number gets additional zeros ... but that doesn't matter. It's just that: the fate of the Normandy is almost as unlikely as the existence of our universe. However, our universe exists (otherwise, we couldn't argue about ME3's endings) - but given the fact the universe doesn't play by the rules since it MADE the rules, I can say it's very, very, very unlikely the Normandy ends on a Garden World intact after getting pulled out of transit while losing engines at the same time.
It's THAT unlikely.

So I can say it's very likely Shepard's last thoughts are with the Normandy. S/he simply wants to believe the Normandy made it out alive somehow. That's why Shepard's final squad gets "beamed up" and step out of the hatch - because Shepard wants to believe that. It's comforting him/her in the dying moment.


Forgive any grammar issues ... :lol:

Modifié par CptData, 14 mars 2012 - 12:06 .


#2
idunhavaname

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But sweet garden of eden metaphor!!

*shoots self*

#3
2484Stryker

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You're assuming that Bioware cares about facts/statistics or realism.

#4
Rockpopple

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I think you may be overthinking this a tad.

#5
Arppis

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It's a fairytale, ofcourse it meets all those criteria.

Rockpopple wrote...

I think you may be overthinking this a tad.


And this.

Modifié par Arppis, 13 mars 2012 - 08:53 .


#6
Epique Phael767

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Add the odds that joker would be able to walk out of the crash without broken bones.

#7
Penguins

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I just can't even comprehend why this was done, since it adds literally nothing to the plot. Other than SYMBOLISM12ije3ir

#8
Rip The Reaper

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The whole Normady in the endings was just stupid imo. But Joker could have already had a system in mind and on his way there, God knows why though

#9
C Trayne

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one in one hexillion... i like those odds

#10
idunhavaname

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Rockpopple wrote...

I think you may be overthinking this a tad.


Whoa? Sci-fi nerds overthinking facts and realism in a sci-fi franchise? UNHEARD OF!

#11
CptData

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Sure.

Now when did ME leave the "Plausible SciFi"-section and became a "Fairy Tale"?
Hang on ...



... I almost have it ...



... yup: when Shepard died and got brought back as an intact human being without brain damage after entering an athmosphere, getting reduced to some bones with very few soft organic tissue left.

Kinda. Right?

Hey, that's pretty much the same time when BW got funded by EA. :bandit:

Modifié par CptData, 13 mars 2012 - 08:56 .


#12
Konges

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idunhavaname wrote...

Rockpopple wrote...

I think you may be overthinking this a tad.


Whoa? Sci-fi nerds overthinking facts and realism in a sci-fi franchise? UNHEARD OF!

I know right? LOL

#13
Arppis

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CptData wrote...

Sure.

Now when did ME leave the "Plausible SciFi"-section and became a "Fairy Tale"?
Hang on ...



... I almost have it ...



... yup: when Shepard died and got brought back as an intact human being without brain damage after entering an athmosphere, getting reduced to some bones with very few soft organic tissue left.

Kinda. Right?

Hey, that's pretty much the same time when BW got funded by EA. :bandit:


Kinda. :P

#14
Tsantilas

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You're going to base a theory on statistics in a fantasy/sci-fi videogame? How about the fact that in every single of your missions that sent you to one of the millions of possible planets in the galaxy, you always managed to bump into people you know? Come on now...

#15
Lady Levias

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I like your thought on it being 'shepard's dying memory', and it could explain why Liara (LI) comes out alive (despite the fact she was in the final assault with me).

The chances of the Normandy surviving that crash were indeed very slim, realistically speaking.

There's only so much damage she can take unfortunately...

#16
CptData

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Tsantilas wrote...

You're going to base a theory on statistics in a fantasy/sci-fi videogame? How about the fact that in every single of your missions that sent you to one of the millions of possible planets in the galaxy, you always managed to bump into people you know? Come on now...


The galaxy is a village, you know?

Funny. I lived in a 500.000 ppl city for 27 years. Never met a random guy twice. <_<

#17
CptData

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Lady Levias wrote...

I like your thought on it being 'shepard's dying memory', and it could explain why Liara (LI) comes out alive (despite the fact she was in the final assault with me).

The chances of the Normandy surviving that crash were indeed very slim, realistically speaking.

There's only so much damage she can take unfortunately...


In my case it's Ashley - but yeah.

And technically, that's the point why I was writing down all that stuff: Shepard makes it up in his or her memory in his/her dying moment. Just to comfort him/herself ... that's it. That's all the magic here.

#18
MPSai

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Or it's just bad writing. That too.

#19
Pottumuusi

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Actually the Sun is pretty much as averge as a star gets.

Still, pretty unlikely.

#20
THEE_DEATHMASTER

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One in one hundred sextillion, nice.

#21
Nineteen

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They also said it was impossible to get to Ilos.

#22
RSOG

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I think your 1 : 1,000,000,000 for the first condition is too likely. I'm still working on the math, but if you take a sample chunk of space (I'm using a 50-lightyears-radius cube centered around Sol) and integrate over all straight lines out from Sol, a "1" if the line passes within 10 lightminutes of a star and 0 otherwise, the number looks like a lot less than 1/1billion.

[edit] Even if Joker does make it, doesn't that mean that the entire rest of the united galactic fleet was destroyed in the blast?

Modifié par RSOG, 13 mars 2012 - 09:09 .


#23
Voidster

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they used space magic, it ends all arguments about the ending. All trust and future income from a lot of fans too. :/

#24
CptData

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RSOG wrote...

I think your 1 : 1,000,000,000 for the first condition is too likely. I'm still working on the math, but if you take a sample chunk of space (I'm using a 50-lightyears-radius cube centered around Sol) and integrate over all straight lines out from Sol, a "1" if the line passes within 10 lightminutes of a star and 0 otherwise, the number looks like a lot less than 1/1billion.

[edit] Even if Joker does make it, doesn't that mean that the entire rest of the united galactic fleet was destroyed in the blast?


True. But technically we just need the distance between Charon Relay and Arcturus Relay - which is just 36 lightyears. That's pretty much a well defined path.

Still - very unlikely. Also, Joker looked like someone who ran out of ideas so - his skills changed nothing here.
VERY unlikely.

I know the series secret motif is "against all odds" but the Normandy's fate stretches that one a bit too far, don't you think?

#25
CroGamer002

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Why did you even bother to do that math?

Cause:
1. Why is Normandy at Charon Relay anyway?
2. Why did my crew left me? What pricks!
3. Why is Joker struggling to escape that plot hole? Using Mass Relays is an instant travel from one destination to another.