[quote]sydranark wrote...
[quote]taelus.calimshan wrote...
In logic there are essentially 3 states. True, False, or Undetermined (different people use different words for this one). I think you're mistaking evidence for absolute proof.
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True, False, and Unknown. However, Unknown cannot be applied to this. If there is evidence proving one way or the other, it cannot be unknown. For example, if I say there is a giant cupcake in another galaxy, this is unknown. There is no evidence for or against it. However, if I say "all dogs are fish," this is clearly false. Unless I have sufficient evidence to prove otherwise in all scenarios of dogs, my statement will remain false. I could alter my phrase to say, "some dogs are fish," in which case I would have to apply it to only some dogs.
The reapers are not doing this, they are not killing some advanced civilizations, they are killing all advanced civilizations. They are not saying some synthetics will eventually kill some primitive lifeforms, they are saying that all synthetics will eventually kill all lifeforms.
This is a hasty generalization, a fallacy, a false statement. It isn't unknown: there is evidence for it and against it; therefore, it is known. And since saying "all" doesn't really apply to all (it is not true in all scenarios), the premise is false.
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Evidence for or against does not constitute proof or disproof, without which the boolean value remains unknown. They've created a statement that cannot be known. The word "eventually" means that any evidence to counter the assertion can always be buried with the phrase "it hasn't happened yet, but it will". The statement cannot be proven true and it can't be proven false. It also can't be disproved to be either of those things, which is different, but only slightly so. That means that it's unknown and can be operated on using assumptions that cannot be disproved.
[quote]sydranark wrote...
[quote]taelus.calimshan wrote...
Allow me to alter your TSA example to come more in line. Your example makes the assumption that in previous cycles there have been instances where their postulate is disproven (i.e.: there are times where there is no terrorist and there never would be on that flight).
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I'm not saying that at all. I'm only saying that they cannot apply that type of logic to this life cycle. Besides, whether or not there were actually instances where their postulate is disproven, they went ahead and killed advanced civilizations anyway, right? It doesn't matter what happened, they did what they wanted.
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It matters. If there was ever a cycle that could actually somehow prove that synthetics would never rise up and kill them all, then the assertion that "all synthetics will eventually kill all organics" becomes provably false and the entire set of cycles ends.
[quote]sydranark wrote...
[quote]taelus.calimshan wrote...
Instead, inject this observation. TSA notes that as fashion trends, luggage starts as blue, but black luggage will eventually exist. They have also observed that once black luggage exists, it is always the case (from their perspective, not the absolute) that said luggage will ultimately be used to house bombs to kill said people because maybe that was their observation or maybe they do have some kind of unknown proof. So, the TSA has decided that once black luggage comes up, they'll take out all plane passengers everywhere (because at some point all those organics start thinking that black is the new blue) and reset the natural luggage color to blue. Then they'll wait until black luggage comes up again and repeat.
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to reiterate, you just said this:
<Analogy Snip>
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I'm thinking we should just avoid analogies all together a this point. Finding an accurate one seems difficult at best. So, no analogy involved, if the Reapers fully believe that this series of events will occur every time:
- Organics will create synthetics
- Synthetics will rebel against organics
- Synthetics will ultimately destroy all organic life
Then once they see organics creating synthetics, they perceive the cycle to have begun and they get ready to intervene (presumably, I'm making some assumptions about their sense of timing). So, they wipe out all advanced organics and all synthetics (the latter is assumable based on the lack of synthetic life in the current cycle prior to the Geth). I'm not saying their reasons or good, but if they believe that the above cycle is always true, then their actions can be seen as reasonable by them and not logically flawed.
[quote]sydranark wrote...
[quote]taelus.calimshan wrote...
Their logic isn't provable (so far as we know), but it isn't disprovable because they have some evidence that it is correct. Their premise is neither true, nor false based on the information we, as Shepard, have available. We don't know the absolute truth either. It's possible that they're correct and that all synthetics ultimately decide that organics, who are emotional and will do things like angrily destroy groups of synthetics out of fear/hatred/etc., are no longer safe to have in existence. [/quote]
It is disprovable. If something can't be proven with 100% efficacy, then it is not true. "A coin always lands on heads" is only right some of the time. I may "have some evidence that is correct" but the fact that there is evidence against it makes the statement false.
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Again, you've provided proof, not evidence. You're saying their statement is false because you have counter-evidence, but the only evidence that can disprove that assertion is if "tails" were to show up on a coin flip. Then you have proof of a contra-positive scenario and the assertion is false. In the game, the assertion is not provably wrong, there is just evidence to submit to challenge it. That's similar to someone saying that the weight distribution and such of the coin should be mathematically conducive to a 1 in 2 chance for heads, roughly. That's evidence, but it doens't disprove the initial case.
[quote]sydranark wrote...
Their premise is "all synthetics will kill all lifeforms." Since zero-chances are not possible, the chance that "all synthetics will not kill all lifeforms" is also prevalent. This in addition to the evidence present at the time of the reaper attack is enough to debunk their theory. Even if "have some evidence that is correct," it is simply impossible for there not to be another side of the coin. They do not have 100% consistency in their argument. therefore, it is false.
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Still evidence of a false value, but not proof. Their assertion isn't proveable nor is it disprovable. Their assertion is that "all synthetics will eventually kill all organics". The only way to disprove the statement is to prove the contrapositive, that "some synthetics will not kill organics, ever". In order for that to be proven, a perfect pattern of life with no chaos would have to exist that can be described mathematically and would never result in an outcome of synthetics killing all organics. No organic society can be modeled perfectly like that because of chaos so the assertion cannot be proven or disproven. It can only be assumed.
[quote]sydranark wrote...
[quote]taelus.calimshan wrote...
So yeah, the postulate about synthetics always rising up against organics to wipe it all out isn't disproven, it's challenged, and that's different in logic theory. Admittedly, once you go away from binary true/false statements, you're supposed to swap into the realm of probabilities, but that's a whole other discussion.
Also, sorry OP. I know I've helped to derail your thread at this point.
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It may "unknown" (not disproven) in our real world, but in the ME world, there's more than enough evidence to support the contrary. In the ME world, a probability (or chance or whatever) cannot be assigned to occurence of synthetics killing all lifeforms, let alone all synthetics killing all lifeforms. Hasty generalizations such as "all synthetics will kill all lifeforms" automatically make the premise false.
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Don't get me wrong, the statement made by the Star Child has significant evidence to contradict it and, in general, can be argued to be correct a vanishingly small part of the time. But, in a purely logic and modeling based discussion, it can't be formally disproven. Math has similar things. I can use a Taylor expansion on an unsolvable equation and get down to any degree of accuracy anyone wants, but I can never get the absolute answer to the equation. Same here, we can get as close as we'd like to being able to call the Star Child's concepts nonsense, but we never actually have complete proof and that means that from a purely logical perspective, the Star Child's assertion is not true or false, it simply is.
Which is probably why so many of us think the ending is hard to swallow really. The fact that we can even have this discussion speaks volumes about it.