69 réponses à ce sujet

[Amila]

I just opened 32 Spectre packs (saved the cash for the char promotion event) and i got 2 Ultra Rares out of them. Javelin and Scorpion. So no 10% Chance for me on those 32 Packs.

[GiroX-]

zephuurs wrote...

GiroX- wrote...

zephuurs wrote...

Roughly 10% chance in a spectre pack

You realize thats a pretty high percentage right?

Yes, I know how percentages work, thank you.
10% estimation comes from here, although the sample size was 100 - so that estimated percentage is pretty optimistic as the author himself described. But, it's better than anecdotal evidence about the drop rate. 

I take it back. That percentage is a lot more reasonable now after last night. I opened probably a total of 8 spectre packs and I ended up with not only my first ultra rare, but also my second and third. Got the Javelin, Scorpion, and Talon.

Maybe I just had a string of just awful luck for a while but I just got flooded with N7 weapons last night. Really weird. I probably opened ~300 spectre packs in my whole time playing.

[PlayWithMyToy]

I got a black widow from my 15th-20th spectre pack so I guess I got pretty lucky

[wilzoon]

How rare? its ultra rare

[kotli]

No one really knows apart from the Bioware Code Monkey who put in the numbers.

As for what % if you do the maths with %s and find out what number of packs 50% of the horde buying packs get at lest 1 N7 super rare you can get an idea of what it is.
If its 10% then its 7 packs for the 50% rate <- this is to high.
If its 1% then its 69 for the 50% <- To looks to be to low.
If its 5% its 14 packs <- looking more like it.
4% is 17 Packs <- still ok.
3% is 23 Packs <- Again this is ok.
2% is 35 packs <- Looks a bit high to me.

So I would say its between 3% & 5% chance of an N7 weapon in a spectre pack.

Modifié par kotli, 31 mars 2012 - 06:15 .

[Diablerist666]

I opened 72 Spectre packs in the span of 15 hours and all I got was Scorpion II and Scorpion III in a group of 10 purchases.

[Doc Pirahna]

I got my first N7 weapon this morning in the form of a Saber. I am almost N7 level 200.

[ApuLunas]

hmmm, did anyone get ultra rare stuff from premium specter packs? i bought 8 of them and i am not impressed.

[Crimson Vanguard]

finding an ultra rare weapon is like finding a Turian in Tuchanka

[Crimzoneyed]

It's so rare you won't ever get it for farming credit's all day long to end the day with being a ton of spectre pack.
You get it out of LUCK! Pure and simple LUCK!
Don't go around and wait and expect to get a ultra rare. Don't count on it since you just have to be LUCKY! to get it.

PLAIN LUCK!

I have two once, both useless for me:
M-358 Talon
Javelin

Modifié par Crimzoneyed, 04 avril 2012 - 08:10 .

[SuperADJ]

I opened 20 Premium Spectre Packs last night and ended up with one N7 - the Talon. Yay.

So that's 5% from the pack that is supposed to give a BETTER chance...

[jerrinehart]

ApuLunas wrote...

hmmm, did anyone get ultra rare stuff from premium specter packs? i bought 8 of them and i am not impressed.

Opened two of them and got Paladin in both of them. Random right, but the only other N7 I have ever gotten was the Saber.

[MauricioM]

They may be ultra rare, but in a sample of something around 35-40 of those special spectre packs, I got two packs with two ultra rare each. So its really, annoyingly random. I think you should be able to buy those ultra rares, even if it was an outrageous amount of credits. Even something like a pack costing 1000000, but with at least one ultra rare, would be far less expensive than they are now.

[Tulafaras]

SuperADJ wrote...

I opened 20 Premium Spectre Packs last night and ended up with one N7 - the Talon. Yay.

So that's 5% from the pack that is supposed to give a BETTER chance...

sadly that still doesn't mean anything.
Even if the odds were 50:50 you could achieve the same result, granted it would be very unlikely but it is still possible.

So far the numbers seem to be somewhere between 3 and 7%, but that really doesn't mean a lot if you take the RNG into account. Any RNG drop system can feel completly unfair, mostly because it doesn't reward effort directly. No matter how many packs you buy in a row the odds will always be the same, so with a fairly low percentage (basically anything below 25) you can run up quite a long streak of misses.

That has been the problem with any droprate since the days of Everquest 1 (not sure if prior MMOs had similar systems). On top of the low odds of getting any superrare you have the problem that some of them suck quite badly (at least for most classes).
I have a saber 3 and a wraith 2, but don't plan to use either.

Basically either accept that N7 grade weapons are based on luck and live with it, or stop playing. That is pretty much the only options you have.


edit: since someone asked for premium spectre pack numbers, i have gotten 2 ultra rares in 10 premium packs. 1 useless scorpion and 1 javelin (which i am not sure i want to use over my widow X or black widow 2)

Modifié par Tulafaras, 04 avril 2012 - 11:20 .

[Dr_Hat]

In my experience... Pretty F***IN rare... I just take the few N7's I've got, hope for an upgrade to the BW at some point, and try to be content with the II for now. From what I've seen I'm kind of in the middle of the luck bracket, and I suppose that's better than the bottom. I'd say i've probably gotten about 200 spectre packs, I have about all the X's and nowadays I've gotten so many gold character cards I could make a small alien army. perhaps....

[Tangster]

From my current spectre pickings, 2-3% (I've been keeping track of my N7 drops since my gold cards maxed out)
From the premium spectre packs, 3-5% (from my packs an the 118mill on P-Specs thread)

Modifié par Tangster, 04 avril 2012 - 11:26 .

[AsheraII]

ApuLunas wrote...

hmmm, did anyone get ultra rare stuff from premium specter packs? i bought 8 of them and i am not impressed.

I bought about 35 of them, got Wraith from zero to III, a BW, and a Talon. So that's 5 total.
I also think it's slightly above avarage.

There are a couple of estimates for the chance of an upgraded card, like getting an uncommon in a recruit pack, a rare in a veteran pack or an N7 in a spectre pack, but the one that seems closest to true to me would be the 5% estimate.
Since there's 2 guaranteed "rare or better" cards in a Premium Spectre Pack, you have 2 cards that might get upgraded to "ultra rare". With some simple mathematics, this leads to: (1 - (0.95 * 0.95)) * 100% = 9.75% chance to get a rare in a Premium Spectre Pack.
And that's why I think I'm pretty lucky with getting 5 N7's out of 35 Premium Spectre Packs. I would've expected only 3 or 4. But even when buying 35 of these packs, there's still a chance to not get a single N7 at all. About 2.76% chance that you won't get a single N7.
Now that means, that statisticly, about 28 out of 1000 players won't get a single N7 when buying 35 Premium Spectre Packs. Statisticly.. You'd need several million players to actually see a graph settle in that direction.

And we don't even know whether Bioware might've included some anti-frustration mechanics, they're easy enough to program, to guarantee someone with an upgraded card after not having had an upgraded card for an X amount of purchases.

[kingtrouble]

7 Ultra rares today in 5 spectre packs.

[vGriMz]

I've got 1 Ultra Rare in about 20 Premium Spectre Packs..

[CrimsonFury82]

I guess I am one of the lucky ones. I have recevied 6 ultra rares (5 weapons, my scorpion is lvl II) and I don't have any gold weapons at X level yet. The only weapons I am missing are the talon and paladin (finally got my Black Widow I yesterday in my 2nd premium spectre pack)

I would estimate I have bought 100+ spectre packs.

[Arkman279]

I will say luck has some to do with it but here's some this I've noticed and I'm friends with quite a few guys with almost all their ultras too x from what we've seen sometimes the store lobby your in is not going to give you anything that's why some people buy 20 packs in a row and get nothing. And then you go play a game and next pack Tada! Once you get one it seems to us that your in a good store lobby (I know this sounds crazy but its worked for all of us) so we recommend this save up two million at least then every two or three games of gold or plat buy two packs if you get an ultra rare stay in that store lobby and keep buying until you hit a string of 3 where you miss than play a few more I'm serious. It's working for me check my manifest

[Arkman279]

And I'm referring too psps

[mrcanada]

Much too rare

[Jayhau]

2rare2care