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having second thoughts on the valitiy of the Packs RNG


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#1
vasht

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ive been sure that like everyone else the packs you get are completly random, even though on occasion someone comes along and makes this thread i stand by the simple answer: RNG

that was until today.

you see ealier this morning i picked up a few spectre packs. i got 3 arc pistols, a claymore and a diciple.

at this point i had Arc pistol IV claymore II and diciple III

i go to bed (i work the graveyard shift) and when i get up, i log in to a victory pack (crap) and the new prem spectre packs. i have some extra cash in the bank so i was like screw it, and grab some BW points for a few of the specials.

i get an arc pistol out of 4 of them, (5 and one failed) 3 more claymores and 2 more deciples. the last pack had a Paladin.

over the course of the day, my Arc pistol whent from I to IX. how the hell does that happen if everything is random?

Modifié par vasht, 03 avril 2012 - 11:53 .


#2
MegumiAzusa

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Random doesn't remember. Drawing a certain combination is as likely as any other combination.

Modifié par MegumiAzusa, 04 avril 2012 - 01:25 .


#3
Ntoo

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There's some intresting studies about true randomness.

My friend in example, had a 0.2% drop chance mount drop 6 times in a row and he asked "If we could farm it for your alts". I have never seen the mount drop and currently clocking in around +300 kills on those bosses. While he got the mount 6 out of 7ish times.

Eitherway, eventually you'll have all items maxed so all you will get is the XP / Customisation rewards aside of use items! :) Be happy you wont get a Mantis X over and over..

Modifié par Ntoo, 04 avril 2012 - 01:48 .


#4
Jamesui

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Random doesn't remember, but that sort of statistic is indicative of a nonuniform distribution. That said, there's a bias of some name or another in this single statistic in that one is more likely to report an errancy in the RNG when one gets one of these pathological strings of results. Now, if a lot of players chimed in saying they were constantly getting the same item, or, even better, that they were getting the same items as the OP, then there might be some cause for concern.

FWIW, I've had a pretty even spread across all pack levels.