255 réponses à ce sujet

[Quionic]

 Thank you for putting salt in my wounds EAWAre! 

[Treemarker]

kbct wrote...
Do you have a link for the Cosmopolitan poll? I want to make sure you're comparing apples to apple here.

Remember, I'm using a poll of 71,500 to infer information about a population of about 3 million ME3 game owners. To be comparable, the Cosmpolitan poll would need about 7 million votes to infer information about the population of the United States.

>>Snip<<

Unfortunately, no.  Cosmo now runs that poll (and others) on an anual basis. The reason I remember it all is because the Social Psych professor was arguing we should pay attention to it and most of the class was arguing it was interesting but not particularly meaningful.  Essentially, his point was my ending one.  71,000 people answered the poll. Thats a large enough number to provoke discussion.  Proof is something else.

A better analogy would be generalizing from the Cosmo poll to the readers of cosmo.  Unfortunately, I have no direct evidence of that other than Cosmo promotional materials.  Even they do not use Cosmo polls to generalize regarding Cosmo readers.   The media kit cites data from an independent agency (GfK MRI).

Again, going from a forum poll to the entire population of players of ME3 is quite a stretch.   Garbage, no matter how much of it you gather, is *STILL* garbage. 

[Dridengx]

Quionic wrote...

 Thank you for putting salt in my wounds EAWAre! 

I'm sure everyone is happy to know your wound has been sealed and protected from infection. Bioware and EA are amazing, now even healing the wounded

Modifié par Dridengx, 12 avril 2012 - 12:15 .

[earthonline]

GuyIncognito wrote...

Thank you very much Bioware.

+1

[kbct]

Treemarker wrote...

kbct wrote...
Do you have a link for the Cosmopolitan poll? I want to make sure you're comparing apples to apple here.

Remember, I'm using a poll of 71,500 to infer information about a population of about 3 million ME3 game owners. To be comparable, the Cosmpolitan poll would need about 7 million votes to infer information about the population of the United States.

A better analogy would be generalizing from the Cosmo poll to the readers of cosmo.  Unfortunately, I have no direct evidence of that other than Cosmo promotional materials.

....

Again, going from a forum poll to the entire population of players of ME3 is quite a stretch.   Garbage, no matter how much of it you gather, is *STILL* garbage. 

HAHA! Are you saying a poll with 72K votes is garbage??? There are other polls around the internet with the same lopsided results.

BSN is a place fans go to talk abot BioWare games. We're here because we like and purchase BioWare products. Here is a poll that wants to see if users are disappointed in ME2:

http://social.biowar...093/polls/1659/

As you can see over 80% liked ME2. People also vote when they like something. That is reflected in the fan reviews. It received 4.5 out of 5 stars at Amazon.

Both ME1 and ME2 received 4.5 stars out 5 stars on Amazon.

ME3 received 2.5 out 5 stars. 1 star reviews far outweigh 4 or 5 star reviews.

Look at the uproar in the media. EA has been voted worst company in America for 2012. BBB opinion piece tells EA/BioWare to straigten up because technically they engaged in false advertising. The Retake movement raised $80K in under two weeks for Child's Play chartiy. Check the explosion of ME3 ending vids on Youtube. Check out the size of the Facebook following. Check out Wikipedia for comments about the controversy.

Mainstream media is covering the uproar about the ME3 ending. CBS, Wall Street Journal, Der Spiegel, New York Daily News, CNN, BBC, Forbes, The New Yorker, MSNBC and other non-gaming news agencies have all written articles about it.

You can discount the poll as garbage, but there is confirming evidence everywhere you look.

I think a reasonable person can have a high degree of confidence when they say the majority of people who experienced the ending (probably overwhelming majority) did not like it.

[DamonD7]

Thank you Bioware for all the great, inspiring, amazing stuff that is contained in these three games. Sincerely.

Dridengx wrote...

Quionic wrote...

 Thank you for putting salt in my wounds EAWAre! 

I'm sure everyone is happy to know your wound has been sealed and protected from infection.

Ha! Awesome.

Modifié par DamonD7, 12 avril 2012 - 01:34 .

[Treemarker]

kbct wrote...
HAHA! Are you saying a poll with 72K votes is garbage??? There are other polls around the internet with the same lopsided results.

>>lotsa stuff snipped<<

Yes. I am.  The argument you are making for a single poll is that it is reflective of larger user population.  I've challenged that assertion.  Same can be said about some of the other polls.  We (and I'm using a very broad we) don't know who answered those polls.  That doesn't even include the possiblity of ballot stuffing on Amazon (where you can review items you haven't purchased, just create an account with a valid email address on yahoo, gmail, etc - it is why they created the 'verified name' designation).  

News reports aren't exactly a reliable indicator either.  Or are you suggesting that journalists are free of their own set of biases? 

Sigh.

Look, 71,000 people took a poll.  An *OVERWHELMING* majority of the respondents to the poll didn't like the ending.  That's a pretty interesting statement.  Arguing that result is proof that the entire population of ME3 players *MUST* not like the ending too - is garbage.  Crap.  Poo.  Sloppy Logic. Bad Science.  A no-no.

I've got other objections as well (such as of those polls were linked here on BSN...so the same motivated group could be voting in all those 'other' polls...sampling the same potentially biased, self-selected, group multiple times in essense).  And more.  Wording, timing...the potential list of issues is huge.

My point, my only point, is generalizing from this poll to a larger group is strongly suspect. Confine your conclusions to people who took the poll, and you are on fairly strong ground.  And making a really strong statement. 

Modifié par Treemarker, 12 avril 2012 - 08:41 .

[kbct]

Treemarker wrote...

kbct wrote...
HAHA! Are you saying a poll with 72K votes is garbage??? There are other polls around the internet with the same lopsided results.

>>lotsa stuff snipped<<

Yes. I am.  The argument you are making for a single poll is that it is reflective of larger user population.  I've challenged that assertion. 

...

News reports aren't exactly a reliable indicator either.  Or are you suggesting that journalists are free of their own set of biases? 

...

My point, my only point, is generalizing from this poll to a larger group is strongly suspect. Confine your conclusions to people who took the poll, and you are on fairly strong ground.  And making a really strong statement. 

People in the market research industry disagree with you about the value of self-selecting polls. I disagree with you. I wish you would've provided me the evidence to back up your assertions.

The news reports themselves are irrelevant. It's the quantity of non-gaming news agencies from around the world that have written articles on the ME3 ending. Quantity of non-gaming news agencies, not quality of content or quantity from one source. Feel free to find another game that has garnered such non-gaming media attention in so many countries.

My point is this poll in isolation is pretty good proof that 2% of 71K has a very small chance of becoming 51% of 3M. My other point is there is confirming evidence everywhere you look that a majority didn't like the ending. Taken all together, the evidence is compelling. But I guess not for you though.

[Treemarker]

kbct wrote...

People in the market research industry disagree with you about the value of self-selecting polls. I disagree with you. I wish you would've provided me the evidence to back up your assertions.

The news reports themselves are irrelevant. It's the quantity of non-gaming news agencies from around the world that have written articles on the ME3 ending. Quantity of non-gaming news agencies, not quality of content or quantity from one source. Feel free to find another game that has garnered such non-gaming media attention in so many countries.

My point is this poll in isolation is pretty good proof that 2% of 71K has a very small chance of becoming 51% of 3M. My other point is there is confirming evidence everywhere you look that a majority didn't like the ending. Taken all together, the evidence is compelling. But I guess not for you though.

Keeping it all this time.

Market research data used by corporations does not depend on self selected polls.  For example, see reference to Cosmo above.  MRI provides the standard metric. 

Try this thought experiment.  I survey every single Wal-Mart in the nation, at 2:00am, on March 31.  I have a sample size of roughly 300,000.  My margin of error is at the 99% confidence interval is around +/- .007% (assuming random distribution of errors in accordance with the math behind this).  Ninety percent report an income of less than $25,000  (US Dollars). Do you feel comfortable asserting that income statistic generalizes to all Wal-mart shoppers? 

In this case, the reality is that the 71k may be representative of 2% of the 3,000,000.  (Aside: curiously enough, 71,000 is roughly 2% of 3,000,000 which is what another author on the forums asserted was the number of persons owning a game who actually post on a forum for the game.)  Your analysis assumes some proportionality.  Mine argues it doesn't matter at all.

The most important thing about any poll isn't the statistics generated, but *HOW* it was constructed.  That has more to do with the validity of any particular finding than the analysis a particular researcher chooses.  Every methods text I'm aware of makes this basic point. Bad design means bad data means bad statistics.  GIGO is a pretty harsh mistress.  Just ask any statistician or analyst who gets called in *AFTER* the data have been collected.

News is...news.  Before the forums blew up, nothing but good news reported.  After the forums blew up...lots of news.  I would assert it has nothing to do with the ending, but with the fact the forums blew up in a big way.  And a 24 hour news cycle creates demand for ANYTHING newsworthy.  And I'm going from memory, but I seem to recall national media was mostly about the forums blowing up, not about the ending sucked.  Statements like "consumers are complaining that EA/Bioware released a crappy game" is not proof of a crappy game.  It is proof that at least one person interviewed by the news organization thought it was crappy.

Blogs are different animal entirely.  Those are opinion pieces.  You are free to agree or disagree.  The fact several blogs agree with your analysis (and quite a few don't) neither proves nor disproves your position that the ending sucked.  Just that someone agreed with your analysis (or didn't).

Lastly, you seem to think I need convincing the ending sucked.  I don't. I actually haven't finished the game.  I got to the mission where you defend the missles and became tired of the game.  Horde mode in single player is not particularly rewarding.  I also looked for and found a guide for the largley useless fetch missions.  Frankly, the best evidence for a bad ending can be found here which deconstructs the ending from multiple writer's viewpoints (or any of the others that have rotated off the front page).  Or the youtube video of understated nerd rage.

The sole point I've tried to make in all these posts is that going from a poorly constructed sample to the entire user group is *STRONGLY* suspect.  I have much more confidence it reflects the reality of people who participated, who in turn *MAY* reflect the forums. But I'd never put that in a professional publication without a lot of supporting demographic comparisons and evidence not available to the typical user of this forum. 

Now, the beauty of ideas is you are free to believe the poll generalizes to whatever group you want.  I don't. 

Though I have enjoyed the conversation, which I suspect at this point is between the two of us as the last few posts have been yours and mine, we probably should allow this thread to either die a natural death or continue the debate in private since for me this is largely an intellectual excercise.

[earthonline]

bump

[Drake_Hound]

The PLC wrote...

A simple 'thank you'-tjreas turned into this? Never change BSN.

Yeah cause in your mind there is only simple toughts .
Cause read only the headlines.

And thank you for what ? can you express a 100 wording essay what we should thank Bioware for ?
Only need 100 words , or is that too complicated in your mind , and feels like work ?

[Drake_Hound]

The PLC wrote...

I'm not wasting my time on you.

See another oneliner , gee that is brilliant , I mean gee what tought and creation you must have !
Says so much promise for the future .

Oneliner , no wonder games are suited for you simplistic way .
We only need one liner dialogue .
Who needs creative writers , a book can be told with one line .

Beginning middle and then the end .

[Drake_Hound]

The PLC wrote...

What the **** are you trying to say lol

Something you will never understand , cause it is more then 1 line ...
Basically something when you grow up , or start reading books .
Or can come up with concrete ways to a discussion .
Or can even learn to read up loud ,or have reading comprehension.

Then perhaps , slim chance ,but a chance none the less, you can understand what I mean .
If not then lets say it is not worthwhile to ask questions , you mind cannot understand or is willing to comprehend.

[Drake_Hound]

The PLC wrote...

Or maybe you just really suck at writing down what you're thinking.

Wow a personal insult , congrats that wins you the internet .
But don´t worry , I enjoy it

Means basically the child who has nothing left to say , has to lash out .
Don´t forget to go counciling soon and take your medication .

Atleast you acknowlege something , that atleast I THINK so I EXCIST .

[Clayless]

Yes thank you Bioware. I really appreciate this, you won me over when Conrad mentioned his ME2 bug, this free DLC is even better.

[Drake_Hound]

The PLC wrote...

Drake_Hound wrote...

The PLC wrote...

Or maybe you just really suck at writing down what you're thinking.

Wow a personal insult , congrats that wins you the internet .
But don´t worry , I enjoy it

Means basically the child who has nothing left to say , has to lash out .
Don´t forget to go counciling soon and take your medication .

Atleast you acknowlege something , that atleast I THINK so I EXCIST .

You're the one who started calling me a child, because I couldn't make sense of your weird posts. If you could perhaps stop acting so ****ing arrogant, maybe I would reply to you with more than a few words.

Hmm remind me of something , somebody told me .
People hate other people who they know are beter , it has nothing to do with arrogancy .
It has to do with reality , nobody likes somebody who does beter then them .
Worst is when that socalled "arrogancy" is proven .

Won´t win me any brownie points with the public , but then again am a realist and I still naively believes truth matters .
See nobody is perfect

[kbct]

Treemarker wrote...

The most important thing about any poll isn't the statistics generated, but *HOW* it was constructed.  That has more to do with the validity of any particular finding than the analysis a particular researcher chooses.  Every methods text I'm aware of makes this basic point. Bad design means bad data means bad statistics.  GIGO is a pretty harsh mistress.  Just ask any statistician or analyst who gets called in *AFTER* the data have been collected.

...

The sole point I've tried to make in all these posts is that going from a poorly constructed sample to the entire user group is *STRONGLY* suspect.  I have much more confidence it reflects the reality of people who participated, who in turn *MAY* reflect the forums. But I'd never put that in a professional publication without a lot of supporting demographic comparisons and evidence not available to the typical user of this forum.

I'm not gonna say much and I'll let this conversation die.

Let me ask you some questions. What if the self-selecting poll of 75K was inferring information about a population of 80K? My point is at some size, a self-selecting poll has value. What if the same self-selecting poll showed 2% like long commutes? What are the odds that 98% of the population like long commutes? My point is there is a threshold of how high that 2% can go. What if all evidence from all other sources point to a minority liking the ending? At some point the evidence becomes overwhelming.

Again, I agree a random sample is the best way to infer information about a population. I agree a self-selected sample is basically worthless for research - unless the sample size is large enough and the results are skewed enough and there is confirming evidence elsewhere.

You are suggesting the views of BSN ME3 customers are COMPLETELY UNCORRELATED with the views of all ME3 customers. Because that is the only way we can't make ANY comparison between the two. The fact remains, we've seen the same evidence from around the world. This goes well beyond BSN.

Anyway, I've already talked about why the 2% is highly unlikely to become 51% or more. I don't want anyone to think I'm right because I say I'm right. People can look back and read our posts and draw their own conclusions. 

Heh, you didn't even like ME3 enough to finish it. That sucks too.

[Josen]

It's good BioWare is "fixing" the endings this way:
BioWare will expanding on the ending to Mass Effect 3 by creating additional cinematics and epilogue scenes to
the existing ending sequences. The goal of these new scenes is to provide additional clarity and closure to Mass Effect 3.


Thanks BioWare. Goodbye Shepard.
...
I’ve told my tale all the way to to the end … I can stop now … Yet some of you … are likely not so willing. You are the grim, goal-oriented ones who will not believe that the joy is in the journey rather than the destination no matter how many times it has been proven to you … I hope most of you know better. Want better. I hope you came to hear the tale, and not just munch your way through… An ending is a closed door no man … can open. I’ve written many, but most only for the same reason that I pull on my pants in the morning before leaving the bedroom — because it is the custom of the country … There is no such thing as a happy ending. I never met a single one to equal “Once upon a time.” Endings are heartless. Ending is just another word for goodbye.

From Stephen King’s The Dark Tower.

Modifié par Josen, 13 avril 2012 - 01:07 .