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Mass Effect 3 NPD Sales Number


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#51
kbct

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Calbeb wrote...

kbct wrote...

Dragoonlordz wrote...

We are going by what exists here and now not what might be shown in future. What is shown right now states on all sources whether NPD, MVC or VGC that the game is doing amazingly well and beating all previous titles by vast amounts in comparrison. You can wait till have what you want but at this time all data available shows the title is huge success financially with regard to sales numbers.


The sales figures we see are estimates from VGChartz who have been known to wildy revise their estimates. 

We don't know how many units have been sold, how many they need to sell to breakeven, how many units have been returned, or how the discounting will affect the profit margin.

The biggest problem is assuming ME3 needs to sell the same amount of units as ME2 to breakeven and start making a profit. I highly doubt that is the case here.


Which way do you think it has to go? I think ME 3 would probably need to sell LESS overall. Both had huge marketing blitzes, but ME2 had a complete engine rewrite and an extra year of development with the same sized team.


I think ME3 cost more to make than ME2. Even BioWare employees said they were running out of money for the ending. Sounds like over-budget to me.

#52
Calbeb

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kbct wrote...

Calbeb wrote...

kbct wrote...

Dragoonlordz wrote...

We are going by what exists here and now not what might be shown in future. What is shown right now states on all sources whether NPD, MVC or VGC that the game is doing amazingly well and beating all previous titles by vast amounts in comparrison. You can wait till have what you want but at this time all data available shows the title is huge success financially with regard to sales numbers.


The sales figures we see are estimates from VGChartz who have been known to wildy revise their estimates. 

We don't know how many units have been sold, how many they need to sell to breakeven, how many units have been returned, or how the discounting will affect the profit margin.

The biggest problem is assuming ME3 needs to sell the same amount of units as ME2 to breakeven and start making a profit. I highly doubt that is the case here.


Which way do you think it has to go? I think ME 3 would probably need to sell LESS overall. Both had huge marketing blitzes, but ME2 had a complete engine rewrite and an extra year of development with the same sized team.


I think ME3 cost more to make than ME2. Even BioWare employees said they were running out of money for the ending. Sounds like over-budget to me.


They said they had resource issues, which often doesn't mean money, it can mean time. ME3 had the challenge of having to make a ton of different variations on cinematics throughout the game to account for certain characters being missing or not. That actually impacts almost every mission.

They only got the ending finalized by November (it says so in the Final Hours), which means that the resources to make the cutscenes necessary to make the ending work as promised may simply have not been available. Especially when you consider the game was content locked in January I believe.

#53
kbct

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Dragoonlordz wrote...

Don't pay too much heed to his tactics, he tried them all before. From returns, EA stock, sold in vs sold through, specific retailer prices and more in order to dismiss the fact the game is selling very well. If he wishes to wait till EA says how many sold specifically then thats fair enough but the rest is merely tactic to dismiss all current data showing the game is selling well.


Go ahead and paint your rosy picture.

The fact remains EA is down 75% from its high while the stock market is down 10%. It's true EA lost money every year for the last six years. They'll most likely lose money this fiscal year.

It's true we care about units sold, not units shipped. It's true a ton of people pre-ordered before they saw the ending.

It's true retailers have been discounting ME3 faster and deeper than usual.

People can judge for themselves.

#54
Dragoonlordz

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kbct wrote...

Calbeb wrote...

kbct wrote...

Dragoonlordz wrote...

We are going by what exists here and now not what might be shown in future. What is shown right now states on all sources whether NPD, MVC or VGC that the game is doing amazingly well and beating all previous titles by vast amounts in comparrison. You can wait till have what you want but at this time all data available shows the title is huge success financially with regard to sales numbers.


The sales figures we see are estimates from VGChartz who have been known to wildy revise their estimates. 

We don't know how many units have been sold, how many they need to sell to breakeven, how many units have been returned, or how the discounting will affect the profit margin.

The biggest problem is assuming ME3 needs to sell the same amount of units as ME2 to breakeven and start making a profit. I highly doubt that is the case here.


Which way do you think it has to go? I think ME 3 would probably need to sell LESS overall. Both had huge marketing blitzes, but ME2 had a complete engine rewrite and an extra year of development with the same sized team.


I think ME3 cost more to make than ME2. Even BioWare employees said they were running out of money for the ending. Sounds like over-budget to me.


You need to face the fact everything points to it being selling very well. By all means wait till EA releases specific sales numbers but you need to drop this attempt at misdirection focusing on semantics and smaller elements to try to make out it is not selling very well and not a large success as far as sales total goes to date. Just don't be surprised when EA's figures reflect every other data source which states the game is doing amazing regarding sales.

#55
kbct

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Calbeb wrote...

They said they had resource issues, which often doesn't mean money, it can mean time. ME3 had the challenge of having to make a ton of different variations on cinematics throughout the game to account for certain characters being missing or not. That actually impacts almost every mission.

They only got the ending finalized by November (it says so in the Final Hours), which means that the resources to make the cutscenes necessary to make the ending work as promised may simply have not been available. Especially when you consider the game was content locked in January I believe.


True, it could mean time as well. This is what a member told me about a PAX convo with a senior writer:

DOYOURLABS wrote...

kbct wrote...

DOYOURLABS wrote...

Senior Writer- Their vision was essentially what you saw, but with more focus on the details. They wanted players to use their lore knowledge and look carefully at the subtle differences in the endings to piece together what happened. They were running out of money so they could not as effectively represent that.


Running out of money or time? Or both?

Money I believe, nothing specific was said though.



#56
Dragoonlordz

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kbct wrote...

Calbeb wrote...

They said they had resource issues, which often doesn't mean money, it can mean time. ME3 had the challenge of having to make a ton of different variations on cinematics throughout the game to account for certain characters being missing or not. That actually impacts almost every mission.

They only got the ending finalized by November (it says so in the Final Hours), which means that the resources to make the cutscenes necessary to make the ending work as promised may simply have not been available. Especially when you consider the game was content locked in January I believe.


True, it could mean time as well. This is what a member told me about a PAX convo with a senior writer:

DOYOURLABS wrote...

kbct wrote...

DOYOURLABS wrote...

Senior Writer- Their vision was essentially what you saw, but with more focus on the details. They wanted players to use their lore knowledge and look carefully at the subtle differences in the endings to piece together what happened. They were running out of money so they could not as effectively represent that.


Running out of money or time? Or both?

Money I believe, nothing specific was said though.


Third hand information with no direct source, to be taken with pinch of salt which further lacks credibility when states they were running out of money in his initial post which was supposed to be relaying what they said to him then says they never mentioned money.

Modifié par Dragoonlordz, 13 avril 2012 - 04:15 .


#57
kbct

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Dragoonlordz wrote...

You need to face the fact everything points to it being selling very well. By all means wait till EA releases specific sales numbers but you need to drop this attempt at misdirection focusing on semantics and smaller elements to try to make out it is not selling very well and not a large success as far as sales total goes to date. Just don't be surprised when EA's figures reflect every other data source which states the game is doing amazing regarding sales.


I tend to believe VGChartz is in the right ballpark, but I don't know with any certainty.

But again, sales equals revenue. We don't know anything about cost or profit.

All we know is EA continues to lose money every year.

#58
Calbeb

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kbct wrote...

Dragoonlordz wrote...

You need to face the fact everything points to it being selling very well. By all means wait till EA releases specific sales numbers but you need to drop this attempt at misdirection focusing on semantics and smaller elements to try to make out it is not selling very well and not a large success as far as sales total goes to date. Just don't be surprised when EA's figures reflect every other data source which states the game is doing amazing regarding sales.


I tend to believe VGChartz is in the right ballpark, but I don't know with any certainty.

But again, sales equals revenue. We don't know anything about cost or profit.

All we know is EA continues to lose money every year.


Unless the numbers come in this May and the game sold overall less than 1.5 million copies on all the skews, I don't think we will ever know if the game was profitable or not. That number, for example, does not take into account the DLC sales (which will probably be big, as they were even with DA2) and all the Commendation packs which stupid people still buy.

EA stocks are probably going to drop regardless. The gaming industry (or at least the big boys) are doing terribly right now, and EA has had a bunch of underperformers.

On the plus side all the stuff going on with Kickstarter is pretty cool :b

#59
Deganis76

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Dragoonlordz wrote...

SimplyNeo wrote...

If the PS3 numbers are true, that is actually a pretty good number in my opinion. I am actually surprised PC numbers were not a bit more (I was thinking closer to between 600k and 700k). Xbox numbers were to be expected and did very well.

What will be interesting though will be April numbers and on. What kind of effect (if any) has any potential negative press ME3 has gotten (from ending discussion or face import issues). Overall, though, it is a good number.


Ironically I think these negative attempts by those who hate the ending are actually increasing sales. It is keeping the title in the news and keeping peoples interest and potentially making them thinking about buying to find out. This is a guess but given all data sources dealing with sales numbers points to sales being incredibly high for the title compared to previous titles and continuing to sell very well I do find this to be a possiblity.


This is very true.  Controversy generates free publicity.  And free publicity can generate sales.

#60
Cainne Chapel

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I still dont get what EA's stock price has to do with how well ME3 is selling.

You do know ME is a drop int he bucket with the number of titles EA publishes right?

EA's future does NOT rest on ME3 sales alone. They're just a part of the overall chart. But by no means a major factor int he chart. Important? Yes, but so is Madden, NBA Live, Battle Field, etc etc and so on.

#61
Dragoonlordz

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Cainne Chapel wrote...

I still dont get what EA's stock price has to do with how well ME3 is selling.

You do know ME is a drop int he bucket with the number of titles EA publishes right?

EA's future does NOT rest on ME3 sales alone. They're just a part of the overall chart. But by no means a major factor int he chart. Important? Yes, but so is Madden, NBA Live, Battle Field, etc etc and so on.


Correct, like said earlier it's a distraction technique. Push focus away from sales data we have and try to imply EA stock being not great is in any way due to ME3. It is simply not the case since when ME3 was released the stocks had risen, PGA12 special edition released, stocks dropped. A different title not relevant to ME3. It's like when people say they funded ME3 being developed it is not true in sense EA funded ME3 being developed and Bioware chose to develop it. EA as in pool of resources taken from all their titles not specific to Bioware own sales. They do not only supply Bioware funding for the exact amount their titles sell for, they invest from their resources across multiple platforms and products into Biowares line up. With regard to Biowares own sales they are from all data showing doing very well.

Modifié par Dragoonlordz, 13 avril 2012 - 04:55 .


#62
Quietness

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kbct wrote...

Dragoonlordz wrote...

You need to face the fact everything points to it being selling very well. By all means wait till EA releases specific sales numbers but you need to drop this attempt at misdirection focusing on semantics and smaller elements to try to make out it is not selling very well and not a large success as far as sales total goes to date. Just don't be surprised when EA's figures reflect every other data source which states the game is doing amazing regarding sales.


I tend to believe VGChartz is in the right ballpark, but I don't know with any certainty.

But again, sales equals revenue. We don't know anything about cost or profit.

All we know is EA continues to lose money every year.


VGC is actually really far out of the ballpark
31st March 2012457,894-38.8%1,420,037
This is their recorded totals for Xbox US ONLY

According to Microsoft, ME3 sold 943,000 units on XBOX360 for the month of March 

Thats somewhere between 400-500k on a single product.

Modifié par Quietness, 13 avril 2012 - 04:58 .


#63
Dragoonlordz

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Quietness wrote...

kbct wrote...

Dragoonlordz wrote...

You need to face the fact everything points to it being selling very well. By all means wait till EA releases specific sales numbers but you need to drop this attempt at misdirection focusing on semantics and smaller elements to try to make out it is not selling very well and not a large success as far as sales total goes to date. Just don't be surprised when EA's figures reflect every other data source which states the game is doing amazing regarding sales.


I tend to believe VGChartz is in the right ballpark, but I don't know with any certainty.

But again, sales equals revenue. We don't know anything about cost or profit.

All we know is EA continues to lose money every year.


VGC is actually really far out of the ballpark
31st March 2012457,894-38.8%1,420,037
This is their recorded totals for Xbox US ONLY

According to Microsoft, ME3 sold 943,000 units on XBOX360 for the month of March 

Thats somewhere between 400-500k on a single product.


It doesn't really matter regarding the point being made. The point being it is selling very well.

Even you who quoted NPD in order to somehow counter that point in reality only stated USA data, even based on that being 1.14million you have to take into account the rest of the would in which it is quite reasonable to double the amount sold roughly as an estimate making total being around 2.5 to 3million. No matter which source you quote it still shows the game is selling incredibly well. When EA, if EA states exact figures even then I think it is illogical to think that will somehow show did not sell well when all current data points to it being very well sold and continuing to be so.

Modifié par Dragoonlordz, 13 avril 2012 - 05:10 .


#64
safrrr

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Kinda weird how all that news is mass effect 3 centered. Seems only to contain detailed info bot that game but no info bout the other games in the lists.

#65
WarWolf7

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I'm not sure anyone is saying it didn't sell well, just that some figures being thrown out are extremely bloated. 3 million worldwide is a bloated number, if ME3 really sold that I think BioWare would have let us know.

#66
Cainne Chapel

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Well war wolf that number is feasible.

Consider while 360 may be the most popular console, there's 1million sales in the US alone.

Factor in PS3 and PC into that equation and then the digital distribution sales, the US figures could easily reach 2 million pretty quickly.

Then factor in that those numbers DONT include overseas or other territories like the UK where ME is popular and add in both consoles again and the PC and then digital distribution

and its quite easy to imagine 3 million is well within an attainable goal, especially considering were already almost halfway through the next month as it is.

3 million would be an easily attainable figure for ME3 at this point.

#67
WarWolf7

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Sales were estimated in the US as 1.2M for 360/PS3 according to MS's statement regarding NPDs. 800k digital sales sounds ludicrous to me. It's definitely not getting many from PS3 digitally. I honestly don't think that PC physical or digital copies would account for that many. And the rest of the world sounds like a lot, but outside of Europe, there won't be many sales. I believe eventually ME3 will sell over 3M in its lifetime, just sounds ridiculous for the month of March.

#68
jtrook

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Im glad the game sold well. while I disagree with the ending, it is still a good game, not great but still good.

#69
WarWolf7

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Does anyone know of VGChartz is accurate for older games? Could figure out the sales roughly using ME2 as an example. NA accounted for 64.5% of total sales, Europe 25.1%, Japan 1%, Rest of the world 9.4%. Those are 360 stats on percentages.

#70
Vincent Rosevalliant

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Dridengx wrote...

Vincent Rosevalliant wrote...

Makes sense.
ME 1 and 2 were good -> ME3 sells better.

It's like Suikoden 4 being the worst Suikoden game of the series, while selling the most copy's. It's because 1-2-3 were good games. But because 4 was the worst, suikoden 5 did not sell well, even though it was great.
Success tends to skip a game.

A better example might have been DA:O -> Good DLC sales -> DA2 best sales -> less DLC sales -> discontinued DLC

The next game after this might just be doomed.


Your theory is flawed and disproven. If that was the case I'll ruin your statement with this. Dragon Age Awakenings. funny how you left that out but mentioned DLCs lol. Anymore smoke and mirrors you want to show us to make a point against Bioware and Mass Effect 3?


Relax. I'm not against Bioware or ME. The point I was trying to make was a general one about the long-term look at game-sales vs the short-term return of investments. If that was not the intent of this thread then my mistake.

There are no "smoke and mirrors". I simply haven't played Awakenings, so I would not feel qualified to use it in my example. I guess it wasn't the better example after all.  : )
How would it disprove the theory, though. I figured it to be on the same level as DA:O. So unless it's truly bad, it would still fit the train of thought. It's not bad is it?

There's no reason to argue about the numbers themselves, they are facts. I'm certainly not arguing against them. I said they made sense. I'm glad ME3 sold so well, and as it was voted the most anticipated game of the year and had so many preorders, I expected no less.
If the OP's intent was to simply display/link to these numbers, good job. No discussion needed, so disregard what is about to come.


The point I was trying to make was that if a game is good, a person will remember and look for the next one favorably, maybe even preorder. If it was bad, the next game will have more to prove and won't be purchased as lightly. Since we have to buy it first, then decide how good it is, and most won't/can't return their games afterwards, the effects of these choices will not be visible (in salesnumbers) until the next game in the series.
The same goes for series in any other media, wether books or movies or episodes.  

Keep in mind that we never really know what we are buying at the time of purchase. We decide to buy mostly based on past experiences and friend feedback. Even Hype is often based on these things as well:
"The spiritual successor to Baldur's Gate"   or
"From the maker of gameX and gameY"

So for the publisher to rely solely on salesnumbers for popularity of the game in question can be dangerous. As it often shows (imho) more the quality of the previous game.

My theory might be flawed, or broken, but I find it suits me:)

#71
AkiKishi

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I ballparked it at 3.5 ages ago. With the ammount of effort EA put in to advertising you would have to be an idiot to think it would not sell ,period. It also rode on the back of ME2 which was a very solid game liked by most of the people who bought it.

However the fly in the ointment here. The game is selling at firesale prices in a lot of places. That's something the NPD figures don't reflect.

From £37.99 on release to £23.95 19 days later.

It also brings into question longer term sales/profits when retailers can't sell the game for full price after less than a month. Just for comparison Skyrim sold 3.4 million in 2 days and still retails higher than ME3 at Amazon (and most other places).

Modifié par BobSmith101, 13 avril 2012 - 01:54 .


#72
kbct

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Quietness wrote...

kbct wrote...

Dragoonlordz wrote...

You need to face the fact everything points to it being selling very well. By all means wait till EA releases specific sales numbers but you need to drop this attempt at misdirection focusing on semantics and smaller elements to try to make out it is not selling very well and not a large success as far as sales total goes to date. Just don't be surprised when EA's figures reflect every other data source which states the game is doing amazing regarding sales.


I tend to believe VGChartz is in the right ballpark, but I don't know with any certainty.

But again, sales equals revenue. We don't know anything about cost or profit.

All we know is EA continues to lose money every year.


VGC is actually really far out of the ballpark
31st March 2012457,894-38.8%1,420,037
This is their recorded totals for Xbox US ONLY

According to Microsoft, ME3 sold 943,000 units on XBOX360 for the month of March 

Thats somewhere between 400-500k on a single product.



Your VGChartz link shows US xbox sales = 1,136,030. The Microsoft source = 934,000

So, Microsoft source (NPD?) is about 80% of VGChartz. Unless MS source is a global number and not an US-only number.

Anyway, if you multiply VGChartz's 3.4 million global sales by .80 it equals 2.72 million.

So, VGChartz's data could be off by 700,000 units or more. Hey EA/BioWare, how many units did you actually sell? Plenty of speculation for everyone.

Modifié par kbct, 13 avril 2012 - 02:00 .


#73
Tymvir

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Better if ME3 sells well despite its flaws and Bioware gets another chance with the ME universe, instead of EA pulling the plug and destroying the ME franchise altogether. I just hope Bioware doesn't learn the wrong lessons and doesn't ignore the negative feedback concerning the ending/quest journal/auto-dialogue etc..

Modifié par Tymvir, 13 avril 2012 - 02:02 .


#74
Melancholic

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Where did the notion that retake wants the game to sell poorly come from? I'm pretty sure we're doing this because we love Mass Effect, not because we want to see it burn.

Besides, if the game flopped BioWare would just abandon it instead of bothering to fix it's problems. More sold copies, on the other hand, means more people experience the ending, which means more retakers.

#75
LinksOcarina

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Not surprised by the high sales.

And I bet the continuing coverage of the endings will prompt more sales too, because people will be curious to see what the fuss is all about. That said, I doubt it will hit the goal of 7 million as EA had hoped, At best it will probably reach 4 million by December if they are lucky.

Modifié par LinksOcarina, 13 avril 2012 - 02:08 .