127 réponses à ce sujet

[Ubergrog]

There are -lots- of threads on this forum about how people drop X amount of credits or bioware points into the game in hopes of finding ultra-rares, usually with very little or no success. In fact, a lot of people are extremely angry over this because it feels like they are being ripped off.

Meanwhile, others are saying that the drop rate is not bad, and that they tend to get as many as three ultra-rares out of every ten spectre packs they open.  While Bioware has not commented once on these issues, nor released the actual probability that you will get an ultra-rare in your pack, I figure something screwy is going on.

Bioware has a -LOT- of power over how the multiplayer game runs. They can adjust everything from weapon damage, enemy spawn rates, health levels and package contents from their hidden bunker somewhere in Canadistan.  They also have a TON of data flowing in for them to observe to get an over-all idea of game play statistics, right down to what you have killed in a day, and with what weapon you killed it with (what, you think the little notification at the bottom was just for you??)

So... Why would they be tweaking the drop rate? It's nothing so sinister as one may consider (odds are they don't have troll-faces 24/7 just to watch you all suffer and throw your money hopelessly at the game) but it has a lot to do with business.

Consider the "horse and carrot" scheme. An object is wanted by a player, they will do a LOT to get it, sometimes throw large amounts of money at the object to get it.  

Also consider that if people gain the full powered versions of the item, the game rapidly becomes too easy (I have seen a player with rank X equipment for ultra-rares, and watching a gold difficulty brute go down to two shots from a Wraith X was an amazing thing).  If the game becomes too easy, it becomes boring, and the player moves on to other games.  

If obtaining the items were easy, there would be zero incentive to explore and experiment in game (as you can all see, most people use a very small selection of the weapons in the game already),  and the completionist desire is immediatly removed the moment all the items are collected at max level.  This also ends interest in the game until new items are released.

By slowing down the rate of growth, it prevents BW from having to generate new content rapidly. Understand that the only truely interesting new weapon they released RECENTLY was the Kirshok, because it actually works differently then any other gun (the striker is basically a full auto falcon and the Geth SMG is a better locust).  Aside from that, they have already allowed (extremely) limited access to SOME of the N7 gear from pre-release.  I expect that by the time we are permitted to get these weapons (which are immensely powerful by themselves at low levels, enough to compete with ultra-rares) to X, all of our other ultra-rares will have been maxed out.

Well, then what is left? They still have the Valkyrie, Argus, Indra, Chackram launcher, Raider and Collector Assault rifle to trickle into the game to keep us biting at the carrot.  This allows them to keep the interest strong in their game as other big titles (like diablo 3) are released.

However, lack of drops ALSO has the same effect as too many. If the players get frustrated at any sort of genuine reward for their 'work' (for the love of god, it's a game), they will stop playing and go on to other, more rewarding, games.  So as a lighter patch to the problem, they may tick up the drop rate a few percent, OR even release the Premium Spectre packs again. 

How do we prove this?

Suggested experiment: Conserve all credits from one full day of play (this will probably be close to around a mil, or 13 or so games).  When you're done, start purchasing spectre packs. Mark down your Ultra-rare drop rate (how many packs had an ultra rare versus ones that did not).  Do this for a week. This will give you a very rough idea of the drop rate per day. If the drop rate is consistant (say one  N7 each day) They probably are not fiddling around with anything in a significant manner

If it is inconsistant (zero one day, three the next, one the next, etc).  it is a sign of tampering of the probabilities. The one caviat is that due to the dickish nature of statistics, it is possible that you will get NOTHING or EVERYTHING.  Just remember that the larger the size of the data pool, the more accurate the results.

[Tangster]

 Allow me to introduce you to the concept of the Poisson Probability Distribution.

[GnusmasTHX]

http://t3.gstatic.co...X_bpCYcnruiMvy7

Seriously though, it's not.

[Ubergrog]

Hey it's just a theory, never said it was right...

[veramis]

Unless you actually apply probability to the question we can't begin to answer the question of whether or not it is random. I have a theory that each N7 weapon has a 1% chance to drop, it fits with some of the numbers I've seen and it would be the lazy person's way to do things which I think bioware likes.

social.bioware.com/forums/forum/1/topic/343/index/11420983/1

Modifié par veramis, 25 avril 2012 - 11:47 .

[ABjerre]

Just spend 3.000.000 on spectre packs today. Got a total of 4 Ultra Rares, equal to 750.000 credits per drop or 1 in 13 spectre packs, which lands it at about 7-8% probability. I've saved my results, as i also would like a large sample size, so i've recorded all the content of the packs for further analysis.

[GnusmasTHX]

You play.

A lot.

[tvih]

Why do RNG systems always spawn these conspiracy theories?

[GnusmasTHX]

tvih wrote...

Why do RNG systems always spawn these conspiracy theories?

Apparently people need that equipment, and when they can't get it they either whine, rage, or get paranoid.

[Hyunsai]

Because people can't accept that a random system can give you 10 Gold character cards in a row.

[The Protheans]

Isn't it probability?

I don't play that much, I have score of 160 and played probably 30 matches or so.
I'm not sure how you cats are able to play 13 games on gold each day.

Modifié par The Protheans, 25 avril 2012 - 12:01 .

[Igipopp]

They don't have a life.

[Neow]

It can be due to random as claimed, but I just wanted to post my personal experience for the past 2 weeks. I'm on PS3 by the way

During the first week Resurgence DLC is out, and Premium Spectre Pack needed to be brought back as they still can't get Resurgence Pack up, I noticed that my 90%(not exactly, I didn't really check, just a rough feeling) of my PSP purchase contains at least 1 item from the Resurgence DLC.

This week, when they can't get Resurgence Pack up for PS3 and needed to bring back PSP again, I noticed that I don't get that much Resurgence content for my PSP purchases this week. The rate, I feel, has gone down to below 30%.

[Sjrv]

With 1 million credits you'd be able to buy 16 packs. It's not enough to use as any meaningful sample for research. If drop rate is ~5% (I suppose it's even less), there is a significant chance you wouldn't get anything. And maybe you'd get something in 2 days. Although IN THEORY you should get 4 black weapons in 5 days (1/20 of 80 packs). But it's just statistics, you could get 2 in one day or even more if you're lucky, although it's highly improbable.

From my experience: I got all rare weapons at rank 10 and got about 10 pieces of every rare character (except asari adept - why just 3 aa and 15 salarian infiltrators - and Resurgence ones yet, didn't buy too many packs since release). Which means 14*10 weapon unlocks and ~70 character unlocks. Considering my mere memory faults and adding respec cards, I'd say I got ~220 rare cards. In all those packs I also got Black Widow 3, Javelin 4, Scorpion 1 and Wraith 1, 9 black drops total.

I definitely had more rare drops from premium specter packs than from normal ones.

I'd say average 5% (average of premium and normal) black drop rate is quite possible, but I doubt if unlocking every rare weapon improves the chance. Still - sample of 200 pieces is not enough for a meaningful research.

The Protheans wrote...

I'm not sure how you cats are able to play 13 games on gold each day. 

25 minutes per game, almost 6 hours total. Challenge accepted!

Modifié par Sjrv, 25 avril 2012 - 12:16 .

[GGW KillerTiger]

 Yes Bioware has a team of people just sitting their hitting buttons to decide who gets ultra-rares how often ..... Right ....

[NobodyofConsequence]

N7 level in the 500s, haven't levelled a character since the last Op weekend before Resurgence, spent around 1mill credits in the last 2 days and guess what .... I have, in all that time, received ONE ultra-rare (Javellin counts, yes?). No Talon, no BW, and of the N7 weapons, I have just the Hurricane I got from completing one of the weekends a while back. Luck, heh.

[Iodine]

They don't have to manipulate anything. Casinos get caught occasionally rigging machines/etc. even with stiff regulatory oversight and harsh penalties. Game cash shops with random/gambling features/items make their own odds, there is no "fair", there is no real "rigging", there is no regulation or oversight, and profits are only limited by what they can get away with before their players stop gambling/giving them money. They don't even have any risk, because you're paying for a chance at infinitely cloneable virtual items, not betting your money against their money.

Plus, the company doesn't even have to explain the players' odds, or how their system works, or even defend itself. Anyone who points out glaringly obvious "unbalanced" systems will either get linked to wikipedia articles related to perceived patterns in random events and gambling and talked down to, or simply told "It's random. /thread" :V

Modifié par Iodine, 25 avril 2012 - 12:21 .

[Xhitaa]

I wanted to create a thread on this due to a similar issue: I spent 1 Mil in 10 PSP, all in one go. Got 3 ultra-rares, not in sequence, all Talon. What are the odds that I get three consecutive upgrades on the same weapon?...

Note: not complaining about the drop rate, just which upgrades I got in that one session.

[Andibandit]

Do you guys think that maybe somehow the government is involved too??!!

[xGunKungFUx]

lol at this entire thread

[Enhanced]

I don't think this theory is that  far-fetched. I'm starting to doubt the randomness of the packs also. I often get the same weapons or character cards 3 to 4 times in a row. For example, recently 4 out of 5 of the resurgence packs purchases gave me Batarian sentinel cards (more annoying because I was level 20 already). Then, 3 out of 4 spectre packs gave me the geth smg.

Modifié par Enhanced, 25 avril 2012 - 12:57 .

[golyoscsapagy]

Xhitaa wrote...

I wanted to create a thread on this due to a similar issue: I spent 1 Mil in 10 PSP, all in one go. Got 3 ultra-rares, not in sequence, all Talon. What are the odds that I get three consecutive upgrades on the same weapon?...

Note: not complaining about the drop rate, just which upgrades I got in that one session.

1/343. That's not so unbelievable.

1/49 if the gun doesn't matter (the only condition is to have 3 upgrades not 3 upgrades of a specific gun).

Modifié par golyoscsapagy, 25 avril 2012 - 12:58 .

[dday3six]

Xhitaa wrote...

I wanted to create a thread on this due to a similar issue: I spent 1 Mil in 10 PSP, all in one go. Got 3 ultra-rares, not in sequence, all Talon. What are the odds that I get three consecutive upgrades on the same weapon?...

Note: not complaining about the drop rate, just which upgrades I got in that one session.

I think that has something to do with the coding of the "randomizer". The first rare I maxed was the Widow with 9 upgrades in 11 packs with the other 2 being character cards. Happened similarly with the Claymore and Reverant as well. Then come to N7's and I had my Wraith at 6 and Javelin at 4 before I even got a single Paladin, Talon, Saber or Black Widow. Also of the 14 N7's upgrades I pulled from the PSP last week 4 of them were the Wraith taking to 10 and 5 for the Javelin taking it to 9. Oddly enough the Wraith was my first N7 and the Javelin was my second.

It could all be explained by the random nature of the packs, but nevertheless I find it intriguing.

[veramis]

Xhitaa, let's assume the actual droprate of n7 weapons is 14% in premium spectre packs, so probability-wise there will be around 1.4 N7 weapons out of 10 PSP. I can't remember the math I learned in high school, but the odds of that much luck or better is maybe 15-20%, meaning that if a thousand people got 10 PSP, about 15-20% of people will get three or more N7 weapons. If we assume 10% premium spectre pack chance, around 10% of people will get three or more N7 weapons.

The odds of getting the same n7 weapon again is 1/7 chance, then 1/7 again, or 1/49 or about 2%, which is rare but not impossible. If you got it a fourth time, I might seriously wonder if it's not purely random.

[teknik1200]

Xhitaa wrote...

I wanted to create a thread on this due to a similar issue: I spent 1 Mil in 10 PSP, all in one go. Got 3 ultra-rares, not in sequence, all Talon. What are the odds that I get three consecutive upgrades on the same weapon?...

Note: not complaining about the drop rate, just which upgrades I got in that one session.

that's called random.