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[Ubergrog]

There are -lots- of threads on this forum about how people drop X amount of credits or bioware points into the game in hopes of finding ultra-rares, usually with very little or no success. In fact, a lot of people are extremely angry over this because it feels like they are being ripped off.

Meanwhile, others are saying that the drop rate is not bad, and that they tend to get as many as three ultra-rares out of every ten spectre packs they open.  While Bioware has not commented once on these issues, nor released the actual probability that you will get an ultra-rare in your pack, I figure something screwy is going on.

Bioware has a -LOT- of power over how the multiplayer game runs. They can adjust everything from weapon damage, enemy spawn rates, health levels and package contents from their hidden bunker somewhere in Canadistan.  They also have a TON of data flowing in for them to observe to get an over-all idea of game play statistics, right down to what you have killed in a day, and with what weapon you killed it with (what, you think the little notification at the bottom was just for you??)

So... Why would they be tweaking the drop rate? It's nothing so sinister as one may consider (odds are they don't have troll-faces 24/7 just to watch you all suffer and throw your money hopelessly at the game) but it has a lot to do with business.

Consider the "horse and carrot" scheme. An object is wanted by a player, they will do a LOT to get it, sometimes throw large amounts of money at the object to get it.  

Also consider that if people gain the full powered versions of the item, the game rapidly becomes too easy (I have seen a player with rank X equipment for ultra-rares, and watching a gold difficulty brute go down to two shots from a Wraith X was an amazing thing).  If the game becomes too easy, it becomes boring, and the player moves on to other games.  

If obtaining the items were easy, there would be zero incentive to explore and experiment in game (as you can all see, most people use a very small selection of the weapons in the game already),  and the completionist desire is immediatly removed the moment all the items are collected at max level.  This also ends interest in the game until new items are released.

By slowing down the rate of growth, it prevents BW from having to generate new content rapidly. Understand that the only truely interesting new weapon they released RECENTLY was the Kirshok, because it actually works differently then any other gun (the striker is basically a full auto falcon and the Geth SMG is a better locust).  Aside from that, they have already allowed (extremely) limited access to SOME of the N7 gear from pre-release.  I expect that by the time we are permitted to get these weapons (which are immensely powerful by themselves at low levels, enough to compete with ultra-rares) to X, all of our other ultra-rares will have been maxed out.

Well, then what is left? They still have the Valkyrie, Argus, Indra, Chackram launcher, Raider and Collector Assault rifle to trickle into the game to keep us biting at the carrot.  This allows them to keep the interest strong in their game as other big titles (like diablo 3) are released.

However, lack of drops ALSO has the same effect as too many. If the players get frustrated at any sort of genuine reward for their 'work' (for the love of god, it's a game), they will stop playing and go on to other, more rewarding, games.  So as a lighter patch to the problem, they may tick up the drop rate a few percent, OR even release the Premium Spectre packs again. 

How do we prove this?

Suggested experiment: Conserve all credits from one full day of play (this will probably be close to around a mil, or 13 or so games).  When you're done, start purchasing spectre packs. Mark down your Ultra-rare drop rate (how many packs had an ultra rare versus ones that did not).  Do this for a week. This will give you a very rough idea of the drop rate per day. If the drop rate is consistant (say one  N7 each day) They probably are not fiddling around with anything in a significant manner

If it is inconsistant (zero one day, three the next, one the next, etc).  it is a sign of tampering of the probabilities. The one caviat is that due to the dickish nature of statistics, it is possible that you will get NOTHING or EVERYTHING.  Just remember that the larger the size of the data pool, the more accurate the results.

[Bryan Johnson]

SeaJayX wrote...

Bryan Johnson and Chris Priestly are members of the illuminati.

So secret I didnt even know

[Bryan Johnson]

jd19 wrote...

Bryan Johnson wrote...

SeaJayX wrote...

Bryan Johnson and Chris Priestly are members of the illuminati.

So secret I didnt even know

I got a chuckle out of that.

But on a serious note, why don't you or Chris or someone post what the actual chances are for each of the permanent packs so we don't have to speculate?

What are the chances of getting an Uncommon card in a Recruit Pack?

What are the chances of getting a Rare card in a Veteran Pack?

What are the chances of getting an Ultra Rare card in a Spectre Pack?

I think that would be better than the vague descriptions we get in-game.

Soon as you state percentages, people expect it to be exactly that. If I said something is 1 in 25, then people would always expect to see it one in 25. If they didnt see something for 50 packs for example, then it would be described as "rigged" even if that is just how probability works. Even with something like a roll of a die, I know that a 6 is 1 in 6 but if playing risk has taught me anything I can go an entire night without seeing one.

No we arent ninja altering packs on a daily basis, or even a weekly basis.