127 réponses à ce sujet

[Vakarian14]

You do realise that this data gathering won't determine what you are looking for right? What you are proposing requires everyone to have the same number of possible unlockable items. If for example someone has already got a level 10 Black Widow, the odds of getting another Ultra Rare are lower.

There is no actual way to incorporate this bias - therefore this approach cannot be taken.

[Xhitaa]

I'm on the iPhone, so can't really quote. But let's change the scenario: instead of buying 10 PSP in one go / same log session, I exit the game with each PSP and log back I'm for the next. What are the odds I would still get 3 upgrades on the same weapon? Since they have to check which weapons you have and which are maxes, is the drop rate stuck in each gun class within the SAME log session? Because that's the only reason I can think of. And again: I'm not complaining about the drop rate, just the random factor of the gun it upgrades.

[Schneemann]

Unless I missed something BW/EA only guarantees e.g. one rare+ item for a spectre pack. Beside maybe failed purchases, this guarantee is always fulfilled (usually by one of those character cards we all love).

And that's it. They don't give out any other info or specific odds. And thus they can literally do whatever they like. A 10% chance of a ultra rare is as much a chance as a .0000000000000001% chance is.

So the first step before asking if odds are manipulated would be to get them to reveal the odds of each individual item...

[Zardtee]

i can give you something. i noted the number of Pre-specter since it was release
i bought 45 of pre- specter since the first day it came out this was purchased within a week
Alright get to the number
pre-specter packs :45
Gold weapon acquired : 50
Char Card ( Blue, gold whatever): 53
N7 weapon : 6 These are
1 Black window
1 Talon
2 Paladin
1scorpion
1 wraith
note that at the point of 35 pre-specter packs : All my gold weapon r X
and later they deploy pre-specter again , i not ever think of buy it. i just buy normally specter packs and last 4 day from the day i post this comment i got 8 N7 weapon , i may said as i do get 2 N7 weapon every day. those 8 weapon are:
2 Javalin
1 Talon
1 scorpion
1 Saber
2 Black window
1 Wraith
1 Paladin
Notice : Before you buy switch your weapon in your hand to something that you already X and something you DON'T want it...
example you want pistol :equips sniper
My exp on this i play sniper at a very begin since it the thing that could kill thing in 3 shot (likely) at that time i use window I and Mantis X and I Badly want to have more Window So i drill a hole on a wall LOL ( that was a joke) OK serious ,, I nerver an upgrade on window while i was using it until i got my first Scorpion, cool but i want a sniper so i kept using a window I later and later i got a Paladin (wow , but I want a F__ing window) so i go on sniping with window ...until another Paladin came out and one another Paladin which was Paladin III at that time SO i bored and give a try on Paladin III and i in love with it i play Asari adapt a for month
and guess what i got My window up to X. and during the week of first pre-specter period i switch to Sniper mode with my Window X and i got 2 Paladin upgraded from the pre-packs

This some of my Notice
GO do some charity and you life will better

Modifié par Zardtee, 25 avril 2012 - 01:42 .

[jpraelster93]

13 gold games is only 6 and a half hours

[Falcen]

Is it a Poisson distribution with a time-based seed? I'm sure a lot of people would love to find parameters for the RNG.

[Scottus4]

Xhitaa wrote...

I wanted to create a thread on this due to a similar issue: I spent 1 Mil in 10 PSP, all in one go. Got 3 ultra-rares, not in sequence, all Talon. What are the odds that I get three consecutive upgrades on the same weapon?...

Note: not complaining about the drop rate, just which upgrades I got in that one session.

You wouldn't notice or care about it unless it was something weird like that. I got two scorpion two upgrades one after another, but then I've got plenty of other N7 upgrades in the past as well. Stuff like that is going to happen.

This is why people invented religion, because people aren't willing to trust chance and have to believe there's some sort of meaning behind it.

[Rifneno]

ITT: People don't understand the difference between "I wonder if..." and "I'm absolutely certain this is true! Black helicopters, the truth is out there!!!!1111"

[USMCSSGTBIGDOG]

I have ready through some of these posts in here and one specifically caught my eye out of all of them. Someone had asked how they can play 13 golds in one day and the following comment was the people had no life. I would like this person to consider the fact that some people here are adults and dont go to school and have days off.Yes adults play to kids.

As for the theory of particular drop ratios in the game,it is still random as far as I can tell. I have saved up over 5 mil in credits and used them all at once and not recieve but one upgrade for my scorpion. I have every gun in the game for the exception of the collecter edition guns. At first they all upgraded with ease and now all of a sudden im not getting upgrades for anything I have had for over a month or so like the javeline or black widow yet all the new guns we got are all at X already within the first day like they were giving them away like candy. I even use real money to purchase my packs and have put a substantial amount into the game already as well. Either way I do not get upgrades for the guns I enjoy playing with like my black widow,javeline or saber.

In my thoughts, they have certain drops but since all the updates have occured here recently I think they have not put those weapon drops back into play.

[Cherry Delight]

tvih wrote...

Why do RNG systems always spawn these conspiracy theories?

Because RNG itself is a conspiracy! 

[PolisMassa]

I have all ordinary weapons at X then the others at: saber II, falcon X, striker X, Black widow IV, Widow X, Javelin III, Kishock X, plasma SMG X, Wrait  IV, Graal X, Carnifax X, Paladin II, Talon II, Scorpion III, N7 crusader I, N7 valiant I, and I havent received any uppdates or weapon (still missing huricane, I know special event wekeend) to non X weapon in 40 spectre packs, only character cards.

[born2beagator]

I'm getting a little frustrated that I still don't have a Geth Engineer or Batarian Soldier, but there is no conspiracy

[Sacramentum]

Ubergrog wrote...

Suggested experiment: Conserve all credits from one full day of play
(this will probably be close to around a mil, or 13 or so games).  When
you're done, start purchasing spectre packs. Mark down your Ultra-rare
drop rate (how many packs had an ultra rare versus ones that did not). 
Do this for a week. This will give you a very rough idea of the drop
rate per day. If the drop rate is consistant (say one  N7 each day) They
probably are not fiddling around with anything in a significant manner

That's funny that you said that. I started doing something similar a couple weeks ago. My goal was to level all my characters to 20, then promote them all at the same time and spend all of my earned credits on spectre packs.

[january42]

tvih wrote...

Why do RNG systems always spawn these conspiracy theories?

1)They are easy to manipulate(as any combinaton of results can come from a RNG)



2)It's actually a pseudo-random number generator.

Vakarian14 wrote...

You do realise that this data
gathering won't determine what you are looking for right? What you are
proposing requires everyone to have the same number of possible
unlockable items. If for example someone has already got a level 10
Black Widow, the odds of getting another Ultra Rare are lower.

There is no actual way to incorporate this bias - therefore this approach cannot be taken.

Just have people with a level 10 ultra-rare not participate. Problem solved. Anyway,


It Depends how the system works.

I.e. does a gold slot(far right on a specter pack) have x% of being N7 and it then decides what it is or does each rare and ultrarare have a chance to show up?  I think it's actually the former given that you don't get weapons that are maxed. I think the system decideds the level and then picks something of that level.

[InstaShark]

The Store Troll Theory is what this thread should be renamed.

Modifié par InstaShark, 25 avril 2012 - 06:08 .

[Quxorda]

No system is truly random, most use RNGs or random number generators that derive their numbers from something else (usually the system clock). A special algorithm generates outcomes based on the time of the system clock at any given moment, thus reducing the likely hood of predictable results but it's still not a true random system. More advanced RNG's actually use atomic clocks to make thier outcomes even more complex.

Having said that, these things are sufficiently complex enough that there is no way you can control the outcome. In other words, any effect you think you are seeing or having on the out come is simply placebo.

Modifié par Quxorda, 25 avril 2012 - 06:12 .

[Malkeor]

Why can't random just be a simple concept like....random >.>

[Zehtuka]

Tangster wrote...

 Allow me to introduce you to the concept of the Poisson Probability Distribution.

This, your mind is playing tricks with you.

[N7 Banshee Bait]

All I know is that I gave up on getting the Talon or Javelin. Just never gonna happen.

[Zeke0]

Tangster wrote...

 Allow me to introduce you to the concept of the Poisson Probability Distribution.

[Sacrificial Bias]

 An interesting theory.  It's a pity that a few of these ultra rare weapons are complete crap.  The Saber being on top of my s***list due to it being inferior to the Mattock in every way, not to mention most of the heavy pistols.  I suspect a Claymore X would be more desirable than the Wraith given its raw damage.

[mybudgee]

Cheney pressed the button to start the series of events that caused the Afghan war!
Also; "THEY TOOK OUR JOBS!!"

[BoomDynamite]

Tangster wrote...

 Allow me to introduce you to the concept of the Poisson Probability Distribution.

tl;dr

[ABjerre]

BoomDynamite wrote...

Tangster wrote...

 Allow me to introduce you to the concept of the Poisson Probability Distribution.

tl;dr

Let me fix that for ya: tc;dr

(too complicated, didn't read)

No seriously, thinking that people on the interweb will read anything that involves basic math, let alone statistics (when its not a conspiracy), is quite optimistic in the first place <_<

I've been bashed for doing some very, very basic probability calculations and even converting numbers into percentiles...

[Grimy Bunyip]

ive gotten 28 ultra rares in 219 spectre packs and 134 premiums
counting premiums as 2 spectre packs and using normal distribution.

my 95% confidence interval is a drop rate between:
24.91 - 13.36

as you can see, still a huge range, after 28 ultra rare drops, 40% of all availble ultra rares.
you'd have to get all the ultra rares like 4 times over to get your confidence interval down to a reasonable size.