127 réponses à ce sujet

[AdmLancel]

Really if you want to test that the best and simplest thing to do is just to get a bunch of people to note down how many Spectre packs they bought in a day and how many Ultra-Rares drop. Otherwise realistically your sample size is going to be too small to draw any conclusion for drop rates.  1m worth of Spectre packs (16) I would not call conclusive.  It all needs to be compiled together.

Modifié par AdmLancel, 25 avril 2012 - 08:09 .

[SeaJayX]

Bryan Johnson and Chris Priestly are members of the illuminati.

[Grimy Bunyip]

AdmLancel wrote...

Really if you want to test that the best and simplest thing to do is just to get a bunch of people to note down how many Spectre packs they bought in a day and how many Ultra-Rares drop. Otherwise realistically your sample size is going to be too small to draw any conclusion for drop rates.  1m worth of Spectre packs (16) I would not call conclusive.  It all needs to be compiled together.

the sample size is huge, assuming the drop rate is around 5%
you want your confidence interval to be less than +/-1%
with 28 ultra rare drops i had a confidence interval of 3.4%
to get it 3.4x smaller i would need 11x larger sample size

IE one of about 325 ultra rares.

and even then your error range would be +/- 20% <_<"""""""
the scope of trying something like this is absurd.

[Bob Garbage]

lol, canadistan

[Bob Garbage]

SeaJayX wrote...

Bryan Johnson and Chris Priestly are members of the illuminati.

I also lol'd at this, good thread.

[WealthierBaton9]

Online poker is rigged. Wait...wrong RNG conspiracy.

[atum]

tvih wrote...

Why do RNG systems always spawn these conspiracy theories?

Human nature. 

Our brains evolved to recognize pattern among chaos.  We sub conciously do this 1000 times a day.  Especially with things that look like faces.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia

related:

http://en.wikipedia....wiki/Pareidolia

[FFinfinity1]

ABjerre wrote...

Just spend 3.000.000 on spectre packs today. Got a total of 4 Ultra Rares, equal to 750.000 credits per drop or 1 in 13 spectre packs, which lands it at about 7-8% probability. I've saved my results, as i also would like a large sample size, so i've recorded all the content of the packs for further analysis.

I spent 2.6mil on creds and recieved 1 ultra rare. Something is wrong with that picture

[TheEldrazi]

My history with ultra-rares is this. Resurgence came out and I bought 10 spectre packs. 2 had resugence rares, 3 had a Wraith Shotgun (wtf??), and the other five had arc pistols and silly rares I won't use.

[Magicman10893]

Hyunsai wrote...

Because people can't accept that a random system can give you 10 Gold character cards in a row.

The reason that there are so many character cards is because once you max out a gun you can no longer receive cards for it. The drop rate for Ultra Rares is still consistant, so all those weapon cards are replaced by character cards to fill the gap.

Think of it this way: You have a bag with 100 cards in it. 49 cards are Character Cards, 49 are Weapon Cards and 2 are Ultra Rare Weapon Cards. When you reach in you have a 2% chance of getting an Ultra Rare. If you reach in an grab a Character Card you basically put it back in the bag. When you grab a Weapon Card you remove it and put another character card in its place. That way even though the Weapon Cards are all gone, you still only have the 2% chance for an Ultra Rare. You would think that once you take out a Weapon Card your chances should go up since there are less cards in the way of Ultra Rares (2 in 51 instead of 2 in 100), but by replacing weapon cards with random character cards the drop rate for Ultra Rares never change.

[TheEldrazi]

Magicman10893 wrote...

Hyunsai wrote...

Because people can't accept that a random system can give you 10 Gold character cards in a row.

The reason that there are so many character cards is because once you max out a gun you can no longer receive cards for it. The drop rate for Ultra Rares is still consistant, so all those weapon cards are replaced by character cards to fill the gap.

Think of it this way: You have a bag with 100 cards in it. 49 cards are Character Cards, 49 are Weapon Cards and 2 are Ultra Rare Weapon Cards. When you reach in you have a 2% chance of getting an Ultra Rare. If you reach in an grab a Character Card you basically put it back in the bag. When you grab a Weapon Card you remove it and put another character card in its place. That way even though the Weapon Cards are all gone, you still only have the 2% chance for an Ultra Rare. You would think that once you take out a Weapon Card your chances should go up since there are less cards in the way of Ultra Rares (2 in 51 instead of 2 in 100), but by replacing weapon cards with random character cards the drop rate for Ultra Rares never change.

this is seriously the reason why once a character has maxed out appearence options, the cards should go away. Originally I thought they did so I maxed out every common by buying recruit packs. I thought "Oh, once I get all of this I can just buy uncommons/rares for 5k. WOO!" I was wrong, I felt dumb, I still do.

[Peer of the Empire]

First of all, I play for fun, not completionist, though the latter is important component for others.  Second, the Striker is the most interesting weapon, and feels completely unlike the hated Falcon, new or old

[Atheosis]

Whatever is going on behind the scenes, it certainly isn't a truly random system. When Resurgence came out I ended up maxing out the new weapons before I unlocked all the new classes. When I got all the weapons to X, I actually counted how many new weapon unlocks I had gotten versus new character unlocks, and it came out to 30 to 6. When you consider that there were six new classes and only three new weapons, the odds of that happening in a truly random system seem very remote.

[jonal11]

You flip a quarter 99 times, it has come up heads 99 times. What are the chances that it comes up heads again? Answer, 50%. You have no better chance at an ultra rare whether you open 1 pack or 100 packs.

[vonSlash]

jonal11 wrote...

You flip a quarter 99 times, it has come up heads 99 times. What are the chances that it comes up heads again? Answer, 50%. You have no better chance at an ultra rare whether you open 1 pack or 100 packs.

The chance of any specific flip being heads of tails is 1/2, yes, so the chance of the 100th flip itself being heads is 50%, or 1 in 2. At the same time, however, the chance of flipping heads 100 times in a row when each flip is equally likely to be heads or tails is about 0.00000000000000000000000000008%,
or 1 in 12,500,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. So flipping heads 100 times in a row, despite the fact that each flip is equally likely to return heads or tails, is still substantially unusual.

[suprarj]

Theory: OP hasn't taken statistics

[atum]

Well, random reinforcement schedule is a heckuva drug.

[vonSlash]

atum wrote...

Well, random reinforcement schedule is a heckuva drug.

Only until it stops dishing out rewards at the rate the players thinks is reasonable, after which 90% of said players give up or quit buying packs. Works the same way in MMOs or other random-drop games: So long as the player gets the item they want at a rate they see as reasonable, they'll put in more time/pay more than the item is actually worth, but should the drop they want get too rare, after the hunt no longer seems reasonable, most players stop hunting that item, and out of these players, most end up quitting.

In this game, that point is right about when you max all your uncommon and rare weapons. Shame Bioware couldn't have made ultra-rares more common, but lengthened the time it takes to max rares. Would have helped keep people invested for longer.

[A Wild Snorlax]

Finally got my Javelin after hundreds of repeat character cards.

Which prompts the question.... Javelin, y u weigh more than an elephant??

[vonSlash]

A Wild Snorlax wrote...

Finally got my Javelin after hundreds of repeat character cards.

Which prompts the question.... Javelin, y u weigh more than an elephant??

As someone on these forums said a few days ago: The Javelin. Hits like an Alliance Frigate, and weighs as much as one too.

[Bryan Johnson]

SeaJayX wrote...

Bryan Johnson and Chris Priestly are members of the illuminati.

So secret I didnt even know

[Nizzemancer]

tvih wrote...

Why do RNG systems always spawn these conspiracy theories?

Because they think that if the statistics say 1 in 1000 000 000 000 they assume the "1" have to be the 1000 000 000 000th.

[Drummernate]

Bryan Johnson wrote...

SeaJayX wrote...

Bryan Johnson and Chris Priestly are members of the illuminati.

So secret I didnt even know

Rofl....

Every time I hear illuminati I think of KoRn since their new album! 

[Neurion19]

Bryan Johnson wrote...

SeaJayX wrote...

Bryan Johnson and Chris Priestly are members of the illuminati.

So secret I didnt even know

I got a chuckle out of that.

But on a serious note, why don't you or Chris or someone post what the actual chances are for each of the permanent packs so we don't have to speculate?

What are the chances of getting an Uncommon card in a Recruit Pack?

What are the chances of getting a Rare card in a Veteran Pack?

What are the chances of getting an Ultra Rare card in a Spectre Pack?

I think that would be better than the vague descriptions we get in-game.