127 réponses à ce sujet

[Magicman10893]

TheEldrazi wrote...

Magicman10893 wrote...

Hyunsai wrote...

Because people can't accept that a random system can give you 10 Gold character cards in a row.

The reason that there are so many character cards is because once you max out a gun you can no longer receive cards for it. The drop rate for Ultra Rares is still consistant, so all those weapon cards are replaced by character cards to fill the gap.

Think of it this way: You have a bag with 100 cards in it. 49 cards are Character Cards, 49 are Weapon Cards and 2 are Ultra Rare Weapon Cards. When you reach in you have a 2% chance of getting an Ultra Rare. If you reach in an grab a Character Card you basically put it back in the bag. When you grab a Weapon Card you remove it and put another character card in its place. That way even though the Weapon Cards are all gone, you still only have the 2% chance for an Ultra Rare. You would think that once you take out a Weapon Card your chances should go up since there are less cards in the way of Ultra Rares (2 in 51 instead of 2 in 100), but by replacing weapon cards with random character cards the drop rate for Ultra Rares never change.

this is seriously the reason why once a character has maxed out appearence options, the cards should go away. Originally I thought they did so I maxed out every common by buying recruit packs. I thought "Oh, once I get all of this I can just buy uncommons/rares for 5k. WOO!" I was wrong, I felt dumb, I still do.

Unfortunately in order to keep people playing they still have to keep the drop rate the same, otherwise people would have all the weapons in two or three weeks and be done with the game. I think they could have done a lot better job at it than the stupid character card spam. Personally I think they should have implemented a system where you could trade cards with each other. Make the drop rate a little lower to compensate and you have a use for the character card spam even though you are fully maxed out. I know I would have gladly traded my Paladin I for an Asari Adept (before I had her) and I would still gladly trade it away for a Batarian Soldier. Hell, I would take a Disciple upgrade or Vindicator upgrade.

With a trade system you could give away an upgrade for your gun/character in exchange for one from another player in the lobbey. You could bump your Widow X down to a Widow IX to offer for a trade. You could negotiate with other players in the lobbey for a fair trade. So maybe trade 5 Widow upgrades for somebody's Black Widow or something. And then after you get your trade you have reopened the Widow for upgrades again! Heck, they could throw in more weapon upgrades even after it is level X for you to trade away.

[xZBx]

For this little experiment to work, we'd need to have the number of trials at 30 or more, so do this for 30 or more days straight and perhaps we'll see some sort of bell.

[HunterKiller_]

Hyunsai wrote...

Because people can't accept that a random system can give you 10 Gold character cards in a row.

I would love 10 gold characters in a row.
N7 250 and haven't got a single Krogan.

[Bryan Johnson]

jd19 wrote...

Bryan Johnson wrote...

SeaJayX wrote...

Bryan Johnson and Chris Priestly are members of the illuminati.

So secret I didnt even know

I got a chuckle out of that.

But on a serious note, why don't you or Chris or someone post what the actual chances are for each of the permanent packs so we don't have to speculate?

What are the chances of getting an Uncommon card in a Recruit Pack?

What are the chances of getting a Rare card in a Veteran Pack?

What are the chances of getting an Ultra Rare card in a Spectre Pack?

I think that would be better than the vague descriptions we get in-game.

Soon as you state percentages, people expect it to be exactly that. If I said something is 1 in 25, then people would always expect to see it one in 25. If they didnt see something for 50 packs for example, then it would be described as "rigged" even if that is just how probability works. Even with something like a roll of a die, I know that a 6 is 1 in 6 but if playing risk has taught me anything I can go an entire night without seeing one.

No we arent ninja altering packs on a daily basis, or even a weekly basis.

[AZawesomeman]

Bryan Johnson wrote...

jd19 wrote...

Bryan Johnson wrote...

SeaJayX wrote...

Bryan Johnson and Chris Priestly are members of the illuminati.

So secret I didnt even know

I got a chuckle out of that.

But on a serious note, why don't you or Chris or someone post what the actual chances are for each of the permanent packs so we don't have to speculate?

What are the chances of getting an Uncommon card in a Recruit Pack?

What are the chances of getting a Rare card in a Veteran Pack?

What are the chances of getting an Ultra Rare card in a Spectre Pack?

I think that would be better than the vague descriptions we get in-game.

Soon as you state percentages, people expect it to be exactly that. If I said something is 1 in 25, then people would always expect to see it one in 25. If they didnt see something for 50 packs for example, then it would be described as "rigged" even if that is just how probability works. Even with something like a roll of a die, I know that a 6 is 1 in 6 but if playing risk has taught me anything I can go an entire night without seeing one.

No we arent ninja altering packs on a daily basis, or even a weekly basis.

Thanks Bryan
Although, thats exactly what someone who is altering that packs would say:huh:
jk

[xInfinite]

5 premium spectre pack and 15 spectre packs.

List I got:

Character cards x2
Character cards x2
Character cards x2
Character cards x2
Character cards x2
Character card x1
Character card x1
Character card x1
Character card x1
Character card x1
Character card x1
Character card x1
Character card x1
Character card x1
Character card x1
Character card x1
Character card x1
Character card x1
Character card x1
Character card x1
Keep in mind I have all characters unlocked and all weapons at X. I am also on ps3 which means we do not get weekend operation nor the guns for those special packs. This game is getting really fun. I only play gold and dont farm whatsoever so I dont get credits easily. I LOVE THIS GAME!!! 

Modifié par xInfinite, 26 avril 2012 - 06:05 .

[Neurion19]

Bryan Johnson wrote...

jd19 wrote...

Bryan Johnson wrote...

SeaJayX wrote...

Bryan Johnson and Chris Priestly are members of the illuminati.

So secret I didnt even know

I got a chuckle out of that.

But on a serious note, why don't you or Chris or someone post what the actual chances are for each of the permanent packs so we don't have to speculate?

What are the chances of getting an Uncommon card in a Recruit Pack?

What are the chances of getting a Rare card in a Veteran Pack?

What are the chances of getting an Ultra Rare card in a Spectre Pack?

I think that would be better than the vague descriptions we get in-game.

Soon as you state percentages, people expect it to be exactly that. If I said something is 1 in 25, then people would always expect to see it one in 25. If they didnt see something for 50 packs for example, then it would be described as "rigged" even if that is just how probability works. Even with something like a roll of a die, I know that a 6 is 1 in 6 but if playing risk has taught me anything I can go an entire night without seeing one.

No we arent ninja altering packs on a daily basis, or even a weekly basis.

I understand that. It would still be nice for those of us who understand probabilities to know what the chances are of cards dropping.

Of course, even without telling us the probabilities, you are still being accused of rigging the system, so I don't see how that would change. :innocent:

Thanks for the reply.

[Maria Caliban]

tvih wrote...

Why do RNG systems always spawn these conspiracy theories?

Assuming you care...

1. The human brain is built to see patterns. Seeking out and recognizing patterns is of incredibly utility to humans.

2. Humans anthropomorphize everything. A human is born without self-consciousness or empathy. As they develop, they first gather a sense of their own self, and then they realize that other beings also have a sense of self.

There's no upper limit to these mental processes. All early religions (from what we can tell) assume inanimate objects have a form of consciousness. Plants, storms, volcanoes, the sun and moon - these are all assumed to be another type of person.

Modifié par Maria Caliban, 26 avril 2012 - 06:26 .

[Geist.H]

After the "I keep dying, it's not my fault, bioware ninja-buffed gold" conspiracy, let me introduce you the "I can't get N7 weapons, bioware rigged the RNG system against me" theory.

Ho sweet, sweet delusion...

Thanks Bryan
Although, thats exactly what someone who is altering that packs would saysmilie
jk

Obviously, big brother does not want you to get a black widow in Mass Effect 3 Online, the evil Bioware overlords rejoice in the suffering they inflict upon their flock.

*facepalm*

I got four n7 drops yesterday, 3 of them in a row. I guess bioware is rooting for me, I will keep sending fresh virgin hearts to EA, my worship seems to pay off...

-Pokerface-

Modifié par Geist.H, 26 avril 2012 - 07:57 .

[gaminazn]

I've recorded every purchase after my 25th or so. The drop rate is 5% for SP & 10% for PSP. Pretty much exactly. I've recorded about 100 SP & 130 PSP. Although the last 50 PSP is well below the 10% drop rate.... But, such is statistics.

[Achire]

The current black (N7) drop system will end up costing Bioware more money than it makes. People don't grind out the 84 million credits (or pay Bioware 2200 euros) to unlock the N7 weapons. They simply play less or quit after maxing out the gold weapons. Why would you keep buying packs when all you get is character cards? Utterly pointless. Add an N7 pack already, or fix the whole unlock system.

Modifié par Achire, 26 avril 2012 - 08:25 .

[Ubergrog]

Thank you, Bryan!

Hey, I posted it to answer the question, all I really needed was BW to answer it for me instead of forcing me to do huge amounts of playing.

Now I will do that huge amounts of playing anyway, but with the knowledge that the % is fixed.

[Geist.H]

Even if there is a fixed % of chance to get a n7 for each specter pack it's random.

it's similar to games like Ragnarok online (you have items with a 0,01% droprate on mobs.)

Some people get those items twice in a row.
Some people kill 10 000 mobs and never get a single drop.

It's random.

[Schneemann]

Bryan Johnson wrote...

Soon as you state percentages, people expect it to be exactly that. If I said something is 1 in 25, then people would always expect to see it one in 25. If they didnt see something for 50 packs for example, then it would be described as "rigged" even if that is just how probability works. Even with something like a roll of a die, I know that a 6 is 1 in 6 but if playing risk has taught me anything I can go an entire night without seeing one.

No we arent ninja altering packs on a daily basis, or even a weekly basis.

So you prefer to let 100% of your customers gamble in a big grey area of hope and trust, rather than giving everyone the necessary information to make their own informed decision and then live and deal with the .1% who don't understand what a chance of 1 in 25 means?

[Vakarian14]

If a person has a level 10 Widow that automatically incorporates bias into the results because the chances of getting an Ultra Rare are now marginally higher. Finding a relationship on getting an ultra rare using data from every player will never yield what you are looking for.

[T1l]

It's a real shame Bioware didn't implement a serious stat tracking system in the Mass Effect Multiplayer. Kills. Deaths. Average waves completed without death. Enemy that you die to most often. Enemy that you kill most often. class that you frequent most often. Time on said class. K/D/R on said class. Weapon stats - everything, as well as how many packs, and of what type, you've opened and what % of armoury you've completed/unlocked.

These stats could be run through a parse for almost spot on statistics...

...but alas, we are but mere mushrooms. Thanks for at least confirming that you'll not confirm this sort of thing, Bryan. It's something, at least.

[golyoscsapagy]

Bryan Johnson wrote...

jd19 wrote...

Bryan Johnson wrote...

SeaJayX wrote...

Bryan Johnson and Chris Priestly are members of the illuminati.

So secret I didnt even know

I got a chuckle out of that.

But on a serious note, why don't you or Chris or someone post what the actual chances are for each of the permanent packs so we don't have to speculate?

What are the chances of getting an Uncommon card in a Recruit Pack?

What are the chances of getting a Rare card in a Veteran Pack?

What are the chances of getting an Ultra Rare card in a Spectre Pack?

I think that would be better than the vague descriptions we get in-game.

Soon as you state percentages, people expect it to be exactly that. If I said something is 1 in 25, then people would always expect to see it one in 25. If they didnt see something for 50 packs for example, then it would be described as "rigged" even if that is just how probability works. Even with something like a roll of a die, I know that a 6 is 1 in 6 but if playing risk has taught me anything I can go an entire night without seeing one.

No we arent ninja altering packs on a daily basis, or even a weekly basis.

That's all fine and all, but I really can't make decisions based on that. Take PSP for example. All I know is they have 'increased chance to have an ultra rare'. How much? Let's say a SP has 5% to drop an ultra rare. Spectres have 2 gold cards, so having even the normal droprate they should have 9,75% droprate. However they can have lower individual droprate while on a per pack basis they will have more. 

And here comes the main problem. I don't know the droprates. I bought a ton of spectres and had about 10-12 ultra rares in it. I bought about 30 PSPs during they were available for 0 ultra rares. Since I don't know the droprates I don't know what to expect. I don't know which pack worths it, which doesn't. I can't guesstimate how much more packs would I need to max out my ultra rares. I don't know should I save money for PSPs and buy those if available or not.

PS: that above 5% was just a number, I think it's lower (afterall 30 PSPs not having one ultra rare with 5% droprate is a 1 in 25 chance, so unlikely).

[SeijiTataki]

Giving people a percentage chance of an item appearing is really difficult, since you can't accommodate for every person's variables (although you could give them an approximate rate based on a totally raw value).

Lets take into account Rare/Ultra rare - there are currently 31 rare items; 14 weapons, 4 upgrades, the respect card, and then 12 characters. On top of that, there are 7 Ultra Rare weapons, which have a chance of being pulled in place of the Rare item in a Spectre pack. I'm sure there's a lesser chance of pulling an ultra rare than a rare, and it's not a totally equal chance of 38 possible items that you will get an Ultra Rare; lets say, for the sake of argument, you are five times more likely to pull a Rare. So rather than becoming 7:38, your chances of pulling an Ultra Rare becomes 7:162, or ~1/23 (hypothetically speaking).

Every time you max a weapon or hit a capacity limit, that item is removed from the draw list, radically changing your percentage of pulling a rare you don't have or an ultra rare, presumably for the better. Theoretically speaking, if you have every single rare, every capacity upgrade, and 3 respect cards, even assuming a generous 5x probability of pulling a rare over an ultra rare, your maximum possibility of pulling an ultra rare is still 7:67, or ~1/10. This means that if you were to give an 'approximate' chance of pulling an N7 item, using these theoretical numbers, you could say that you have a chance of pulling an N7 rare in anywhere from 1 in 23 packs to 1 in 10, depending on your unlock; this is only assuming that you are asking for ANY N7, rather than a SPECIFIC N7. For example, in the above cases, your requesting the probability of, say, pulling the Scorpion; that becomes 1:162 to 1:67. This also doesn't take into account if any types of pull are weighted more than others; IE if weapons are weighted more than upgrades, which are weighted more than respecs, which are weighted more than characters.

But, okay, for sake of simplicity, we'll assume that BioWare has flat rates. Every weapon rare is 2% (62%), every character card is 2% (24%), respecs and capacity upgrades are 1% (5%); the Ultra Rares take up the remaining 9% (equaling about 1.3% chance each). So BioWare can tell you that you have a chance of pulling a Ultra Rare approximately 1 in every 10 packs (heavily rounded just for the sake of simple math) you get.

Someone, somewhere, is going to buy 10 packs, and when they don't get an Ultra Rare, they're going to claim that BioWare lies, because they don't actually understand probability. Gambler's Fallacy is the belief that given a sample period, you are guaranteed the outcome; it's the mistaken belief that if your odds are 1 in 10, that as you near 10-attempts, your chance of achieving your desired goal reaching 100%. This is wholly incorrect - in reality, each pack you open has a 1 in 10 chance of being the desired result, and has no baring on future packs. You are not guaranteed a result just because you are nearing the presumed sample size.

This long conversational tangent brought to you by statistical probability.

Edit:
Also, we don't know if the way Ultra Rares and Rares are pulled are not an entirely different method, of, say;
You have a flat 5% chance of a pull being an Ultra Rare, and the remaining 95% of the time it being a Rare; with the probabilities of those rares or ultra rares being modified based entirely on what you have available. IE; no matter how many rares you knock out, or how many ultra rares you knock out, you still only have a 95 to 5 chance; meaning that if you knock out all the other rares, you only have a 5% chance of getting an ultra rare, even if the remaining 95% can only be character cards.

Given purely speculative and observed results, I kind of assume this is the way packs behave, and that Premium Spectre Packs only slightly improve the probability of the intial draw being an Ultra Rare, and ultimately have a statistically insignificant over-all net impact. Although this is a moot point since the main strength of Premium Spectre packs is actually the ability to get a double draw on loot, in general, and is generally a solid purchasing buy. Assuming that both draws obey a (conjectured) 95:5 pull, you're still always improving your odds, and at the very least are getting two shots at items you may not have. Again, just because you pull twice doesn't mean you are actually doubling your overall probability of a desired outcome, it just makes it more likely.

Modifié par SeijiTataki, 26 avril 2012 - 10:56 .

[Sinapus]

The random number generator hates us. That is all.

[Nizzemancer]

Bryan Johnson wrote...

jd19 wrote...

Bryan Johnson wrote...

SeaJayX wrote...

Bryan Johnson and Chris Priestly are members of the illuminati.

So secret I didnt even know

I got a chuckle out of that.

But on a serious note, why don't you or Chris or someone post what the actual chances are for each of the permanent packs so we don't have to speculate?

What are the chances of getting an Uncommon card in a Recruit Pack?

What are the chances of getting a Rare card in a Veteran Pack?

What are the chances of getting an Ultra Rare card in a Spectre Pack?

I think that would be better than the vague descriptions we get in-game.

Soon as you state percentages, people expect it to be exactly that. If I said something is 1 in 25, then people would always expect to see it one in 25. If they didnt see something for 50 packs for example, then it would be described as "rigged" even if that is just how probability works. Even with something like a roll of a die, I know that a 6 is 1 in 6 but if playing risk has taught me anything I can go an entire night without seeing one.

No we arent ninja altering packs on a daily basis, or even a weekly basis.

You changed my widow upgrade to a silver salarian engineer card didn't you? You're out to get me personally because the whole world revolves around me and bla bla bla!
I'm on to you, agents of the Illuminati...

...

...

...

[Colonel Cupcake]

I had been saving up credits for days, and had gotten a total of 2 million credits.
After spending them all on 21 premium spectre packs, I recieved 0 ultra rares.

[Colonel Cupcake]

I had been saving up credits for days, and had gotten a total of 2 million credits.
After spending them all on 21 premium spectre packs, I recieved 0 ultra rares.

[RNG God]

M-M-M-MONSTER NECRO!