127 réponses à ce sujet

[gethinych]

It's al-iiiiive!

I've had similar before - it's just the way it goes. The 22nd could be the charm, followed by the 23rd, 24th (2 xURs), 25th - and then nothing for ages again.

It's no fun when you do get a bad run like that, but it does feel as though things even out over time. I certainly hope it does for you!

[Phen0meenal]

[Ubergrog]

I made this thread six months ago... why is it back at the top!?

[ErrorTagUnknown]

They really don't have to manipulate..... the nature of probability does the work for them.

[winelanv44]

Ah statistics...

Gotta love the gambler's fallacy!

[golyoscsapagy]

Bryan Johnson wrote...

jd19 wrote...

Bryan Johnson wrote...

SeaJayX wrote...

Bryan Johnson and Chris Priestly are members of the illuminati.

So secret I didnt even know

I got a chuckle out of that.

But on a serious note, why don't you or Chris or someone post what the actual chances are for each of the permanent packs so we don't have to speculate?

What are the chances of getting an Uncommon card in a Recruit Pack?

What are the chances of getting a Rare card in a Veteran Pack?

What are the chances of getting an Ultra Rare card in a Spectre Pack?

I think that would be better than the vague descriptions we get in-game.

Soon as you state percentages, people expect it to be exactly that. If I said something is 1 in 25, then people would always expect to see it one in 25. If they didnt see something for 50 packs for example, then it would be described as "rigged" even if that is just how probability works. Even with something like a roll of a die, I know that a 6 is 1 in 6 but if playing risk has taught me anything I can go an entire night without seeing one.

No we arent ninja altering packs on a daily basis, or even a weekly basis.

I'm more interested in from where you get your random seed. If your random number is polluted it can and will mean some people are more 'lucky' and some others are terribly 'unlucky' (the drop rate of URs for one is indeed higher/lower since the random number is not really random, but tends to deviate).

[Chrome tater tot]

I don't know about all that, but suffice to say that UR's show up so infrequently for me that I do not consider them part of my manifest, and consider my manifest complete when I have all rares and uncommons.

Also, it's "Caveat."

[mackfactor]

OH MY GOD. It's a RANDOM number generator. Just because you're not getting all the ultra rares your delicate little heart can handle does not mean that there is some sort of conspiracy. And a sample set of 10 packs in a day is far too small to prove anything.

[Jslk]

Ea's official response to the RNG system:

"No Data Available..."

[jordie3000]

mackfactor wrote...

OH MY GOD. It's a RANDOM number generator. Just because you're not getting all the ultra rares your delicate little heart can handle does not mean that there is some sort of conspiracy. And a sample set of 10 packs in a day is far too small to prove anything.

Wasn't it statistically shown in WoW that /roll tended to favor names starting with certain letters? I can recall the odds being bad for names starting with, say, S, or at least that's what I heard. Like the guy above said, the random thing has to start with something. 

[Epique Phael767]

Bryan Johnson wrote...

jd19 wrote...

Bryan Johnson wrote...

SeaJayX wrote...

Bryan Johnson and Chris Priestly are members of the illuminati.

So secret I didnt even know

I got a chuckle out of that.

But on a serious note, why don't you or Chris or someone post what the actual chances are for each of the permanent packs so we don't have to speculate?

What are the chances of getting an Uncommon card in a Recruit Pack?

What are the chances of getting a Rare card in a Veteran Pack?

What are the chances of getting an Ultra Rare card in a Spectre Pack?

I think that would be better than the vague descriptions we get in-game.

Soon as you state percentages, people expect it to be exactly that. If I said something is 1 in 25, then people would always expect to see it one in 25. If they didnt see something for 50 packs for example, then it would be described as "rigged" even if that is just how probability works. Even with something like a roll of a die, I know that a 6 is 1 in 6 but if playing risk has taught me anything I can go an entire night without seeing one.

No we arent ninja altering packs on a daily basis, or even a weekly basis.

Only the people trying to apply order to chaos in probability will be the ones to get upset.

It does feel like it's being ninja-altered, especially when DLC drops.

[Jslk]

Reaction to the truth of RNG:

www.youtube.com/watch

[jrod512ATX]

Got the Volus engineer twice in as many days...wtf...gimme one of the rare characters...

[Chrome tater tot]

jordie3000 wrote...

mackfactor wrote...

OH MY GOD. It's a RANDOM number generator. Just because you're not getting all the ultra rares your delicate little heart can handle does not mean that there is some sort of conspiracy. And a sample set of 10 packs in a day is far too small to prove anything.

Wasn't it statistically shown in WoW that /roll tended to favor names starting with certain letters? I can recall the odds being bad for names starting with, say, S, or at least that's what I heard. Like the guy above said, the random thing has to start with something. 

I also watched some program on discovery where they affected the outcome of a random number generator by having a group of people focus intensely on one number. Their brainwaves were somehow affecting the machine or something, it was interesting. So just get all your friends in the room and have everyone think "ULTRA RARES!"

[Transairion]

No we arent ninja altering packs on a daily basis, or even a weekly basis.

Should we be concerned you didn't just say "No we aren't ninja altering packs at all" ?

I'd be more concerned about the Packs being changed at all, let alone how often =/

/makingsomethingoutofnothing

[KentGoldings]

The drop frequency of each ultra-rare is random. But, that frequency is not uniformly random. Too Many people, even anecdotally, experience Ultra-rare stacking. The statistical test is called a "goodness-of-fit-test." Presuming the drop frequency of Ultra-rare is uniform, the probability of getting one UR to X while not having another unlocked is too low to be supported.

So, the drop frequency of ultra-rare seems to be a function if the UR you own. So, when aggregated over all players the drop frequency must be completely uniform.

Also, it not neccesarly a bad thing. The first UR I was dealt was the Black Widow. Right now it's leveled to VIII. But, I haven't unlocked the Paladin. I'd love this if I was a sniper, but hate it if I liked aging adepts.

In the end, random does not imply uniform frequency. I think the issue is that people might lose interest if they unlock all the UR guns too soon. Having is not as good as wanting.

[Eelectrica]

Colonel Cupcake wrote...

I had been saving up credits for days, and had gotten a total of 2 million credits.
After spending them all on 21 premium spectre packs, I recieved 0 ultra rares.

And then there's the odd occasion where you can open 5 psp's and get 3 UR's. Dumb luck works that way sometimes.

I wouldn't mind if it dropped more cyclonic armour.
I've taken to saving up a few credits, 'uninstalling' the last 2 dlc in the hopes of getting a Cyclonic or a UR upgrade I'll actually use. No such luck either way so far *sigh*

[tMc Tallgeese]

Remember your probability statistics from math classes of yester year. It will help make the store actually make sense.
So much for never using math in the real world. haha

[Yoshiyuki Ly]

tMc Tallgeese wrote...

Remember your probability statistics from math classes of yester year. It will help make the store actually make sense.
So much for never using math in the real world. haha

Some will argue that this is not the real world. This is about a video game, therefore, nothing is real and it doesn't matter.

[KentGoldings]

tMc Tallgeese wrote...

Remember your probability statistics from math classes of yester year. It will help make the store actually make sense.
So much for never using math in the real world. haha

I teach stats... In the real world. 

[-Shroomerz420]

I was wondering....

Since we're essentially gambling if we buy a pack...why are the odds not clearly shown to us? Greater chance means nothing...

I've never seen the percentages anywhere, let alone in the game.

Example: If I buy 3 PSPs what are the odds that I'll get a UR weapon?

Who whatches over BioWare/EA as far as the RNG goes? Whose to say they don't manipulate it in their favor?

I'll remain skeptical, as "The house ALWAYS wins"....no exceptions :-)

[KentGoldings]

A Casino doesn't need to fix the games to make a profit. But, at least a casino returns actual cash. As long as people keep buying booster packs, the game get supported and developed by a Bioware. Everybody wins.

[apascone]

Tangster wrote...

 Allow me to introduce you to the concept of the Poisson Probability Distribution.

So I went to the wiki and read the first paragraph. I didn't understand what I read so I stopped reading. Thanks for the info though

[jordie3000]

Chrome tater tot wrote...

jordie3000 wrote...

mackfactor wrote...

OH MY GOD. It's a RANDOM number generator. Just because you're not getting all the ultra rares your delicate little heart can handle does not mean that there is some sort of conspiracy. And a sample set of 10 packs in a day is far too small to prove anything.

Wasn't it statistically shown in WoW that /roll tended to favor names starting with certain letters? I can recall the odds being bad for names starting with, say, S, or at least that's what I heard. Like the guy above said, the random thing has to start with something. 

I also watched some program on discovery where they affected the outcome of a random number generator by having a group of people focus intensely on one number. Their brainwaves were somehow affecting the machine or something, it was interesting. So just get all your friends in the room and have everyone think "ULTRA RARES!"

http://en.wikipedia....mber_generation
http://en.wikipedia....umber_generator
http://en.wikipedia....iki/Random_seed

As for the Discovery Channel, they do shows on exorcisms and mermaids in primetime. Though maybe that's your point?

[The Renegade Fem-Shep]

WHY IS THIS NECRO THREAD STILL GOING?! Jesus Christ did anyone look at many months ago this started?!